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Future — Global platform strategy starts to pay

Future — Global platform strategy starts to pay

Future has produced strong H117 figures, as per April’s trading update, boosted by growing e-commerce revenues and a strong showing from events. Momentum into H2 is good and we have raised our FY17 and FY18 forecasts for revenue, profits and earnings. Progress on reducing net debt was also ahead of our forecast. The strategy to build a global media platform business around Future’s high-profile brands, backed with quality content and across multiple revenue streams, is starting to deliver meaningful returns and growth well above the sector average. The market valuation of the shares has yet to reflect this differential.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Future

Global platform strategy starts to pay

Interim results

Media

19 May 2017

Price

180p

Market cap

£66m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2017

5.2

Shares in issue

36.6m

Free float

67%

Code

FUTR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

1.1

(3.2)

34.8

Rel (local)

3.7

(3.4)

20.2

52-week high/low

215.6p

118.5p

Business description

Future is an international media group and leading digital publisher. It operates two separately managed brand-led divisions: Media and Magazine.

Next events

Final results

November 2017

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

FutureFuture is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Future has produced strong H117 figures, as per April’s trading update, boosted by growing e-commerce revenues and a strong showing from events. Momentum into H2 is good and we have raised our FY17 and FY18 forecasts for revenue, profits and earnings. Progress on reducing net debt was also ahead of our forecast. The strategy to build a global media platform business around Future’s high-profile brands, backed with quality content and across multiple revenue streams, is starting to deliver meaningful returns and growth well above the sector average. The market valuation of the shares has yet to reflect this differential.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/15

59.8

0.2

2.7

0.0

66.7

N/A

09/16

59.0

1.6

5.7

0.0

31.6

N/A

09/17e

76.5

7.2

16.4

0.0

11.0

N/A

09/18e

77.5

10.5

22.0

0.0

8.2

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Greater diversity and more recurring revenues

Management’s strategy to build a broader set of income streams and to raise the quality of earnings through higher recurring and repeatable revenues is starting to deliver. Newer business streams, principally e-commerce and events, are being largely funded by the benefits of scale flowing through from the enlarged Magazine division. Key Media brands, such as Techradar and PCGamer continue to build their online presence, with the group’s total online user audience growth of 53m MAU in March 2017, 18% ahead of prior year, with a total consumer reach of over 100m. US audience figures were even stronger. H117 Media division revenues rose 23% year-on-year, all organic, with e-commerce revenues up 72% to over a quarter of the division, supported by leading brand positioning in its segments, also driving the commercial success of the events portfolio. In Magazines, an emphasis on driving subscriptions has helped lift recurring revenues to 27% of total.

Organic and acquisitional growth

The acquisitions of Imagine Publishing (October 2016) and the Team Rock assets (January 2017) are both delivering as planned. Imagine synergy savings should flow through more strongly in FY18, quantified at £3m for a full year. There is good scope for further growth from group brands from extensions (eg Techradar Pro, addressing the professional market; T3 Baby), through licensing and franchising.

Valuation: Undervaluing the growth potential

The share price picked up strongly post November’s results as the market took on board the degree of transformation implemented and the scale of the opportunity. The shares then settled back to current levels, on a historical EV/EBITDA of 15.1x, with the substantial forecast growth bringing that figure in to 7.4x for FY17e. Global B2C media peers trade on a historical 15.6x, prospective 9.6x, allowing further upside as the group builds its record of delivering against expectations.

Good H117performance

Revenues for H117 was ahead 35% over the prior year, with the Media division gaining 23% to £16.2m and the Magazine division up by 45%, boosted by the Imagine acquisition. Split by geography, UK revenues were up 40% and those from the US up 18%. The UK accounted for 80% of group (77%). Particularly notable is the improvement in EBITDA, as the strategy of leveraging the brands and their content across different channels starts to play through. EBITDA margins in the UK lifted from 5.1% in H116 to 8.8%, while in the US they more than doubled from 11.1% to 22.4% as Techradar and PCGamer in particular gained further market traction and as contributions from e-commerce and events increased in the mix. Overall, brands within the core verticals of tech, gaming, photo and creative have shown strong growth, with revenues from PCGamer.com up 81%, GamesRadar+ up 40% and T3 up 72%. Global brand reach is being further extended through strategic partnerships and licensing deals such as that agreed with Times of India to license the Techradar platform.

The group now derives revenue streams from a lengthening list of opportunities: digital advertising; e-commerce; events; licensing (platform and content); retail; subscriptions; and contract publishing. An increasing proportion of the whole can now be defined either as recurring or repeatable. One of the guiding principles is ‘building it once, monetising it over and again’. Success is always predicated on having high-quality, relevant content that resonates with its audiences. The newly-recruited e-commerce and trading director, Jason Kemp (a consultant with an extensive background in retail and e-commerce) is already having a positive impact on the newer income streams. He adds retail expertise to the data and content knowledge already in place.

Upgrades to forecasts

The statement indicates that H217 to date is ‘slightly’ outperforming management expectations and this, combined with the strong H117 outturn, has encouraged us to raise our projected numbers. The top line uplift to revenues from £70m to £76.5m for FY17e and from £73m to £77.5m for FY18e translates into a greater improvement to EBITDA, profits and earnings, as shown in Exhibit 1 below. The margin expansion reflects a combination of the synergistic benefits stemming from the integration of Imagine in the Magazine division and the operational leverage coming through from Media brands.

Exhibit 1: Revised forecasts

EPS (p)

PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

Old

New

% chg

2016

5.7

5.7

1.6

1.6

4.7

4.7

2017e

10.0

16.4

+64

4.6

7.2

+57

9.0

9.6

+7

2018e

18.0

22.0

+22

8.6

10.5

+22

12.4

12.6

+2

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Cash conversion

Post the Imagine acquisition, we were forecasting that the end FY17e net debt position would be £7.2m. The strong cash conversion performance in H117 has resulted in an end-March number of £5.2m and with H2 also generally cash positive, we are now looking at a year-end figure of £4.0m. By the end of the following year, our current forecasts indicate that the group may be approaching a cash neutral position.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'m

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

30 September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IRFS

IRFS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

82.6

66.0

59.8

59.0

76.5

77.5

Cost of Sales

(58.5)

(50.6)

(40.6)

(37.2)

(47.2)

(46.5)

Gross Profit

24.1

15.4

19.2

21.8

29.3

31.0

EBITDA

 

 

(0.6)

(7.0)

3.6

4.7

9.6

12.6

Operating profit (before amort. and except.)

 

(3.4)

(10.3)

0.8

2.3

8.2

11.2

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(2.0)

(2.3)

(2.3)

(0.9)

(2.1)

(2.1)

Exceptionals

2.6

(24.3)

(2.5)

(16.5)

(2.5)

(1.0)

Share-based payments

(0.3)

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

(1.0)

(2.5)

Reported operating profit

(3.1)

(37.0)

(4.0)

(15.1)

2.6

5.6

Net Interest

(1.4)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.7)

(1.0)

(0.7)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit before tax (norm)

 

 

(4.8)

(11.1)

0.2

1.6

7.2

10.5

Profit before tax (reported)

 

 

(4.2)

(35.4)

(2.3)

(14.9)

1.6

4.9

Reported tax

(0.1)

0.5

0.3

0.5

(0.2)

(2.2)

Profit after tax (norm)

(4.9)

(10.6)

0.5

2.1

6.2

8.6

Profit after tax (reported)

(4.3)

(34.9)

(2.0)

(14.4)

1.5

2.7

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.7

0.2

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(4.9)

(10.6)

0.6

1.4

6.2

8.6

Net income (reported)

(4.3)

(34.9)

(1.3)

(14.2)

1.5

2.7

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

22

22

22

24

36

37

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

(22.2)

(47.9)

2.7

5.9

17.4

23.3

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(21.7)

(47.5)

2.7

5.7

16.4

22.0

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

(19.4)

(157.4)

(5.9)

(58.7)

4.1

7.4

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

(20.1)

(9.4)

(1.3)

29.7

1.3

Gross margin (%)

29.2

23.3

32.1

37.0

38.3

40.0

EBITDA margin (%)

(0.7)

(10.6)

6.0

8.0

12.6

16.3

Normalised operating margin (%)

(4.1)

(15.6)

1.3

3.9

10.8

14.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed assets

 

 

92.7

45.9

44.9

38.6

61.4

61.4

Intangible assets

89.8

44.4

43.8

33.2

58.8

58.8

Tangible assets

2.5

1.0

0.6

3.0

0.9

0.9

Investments & other

0.4

0.5

0.5

2.4

1.7

1.7

Current assets

 

 

28.3

22.9

19.5

15.8

20.7

21.9

Stocks

1.9

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

Debtors

21.4

12.8

15.3

12.4

16.2

16.3

Cash & cash equivalents

4.6

7.5

2.5

2.9

4.0

5.2

Other

0.4

2.0

1.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

Current liabilities

 

 

(44.2)

(27.1)

(25.9)

(25.1)

(29.6)

(29.9)

Creditors

(31.6)

(25.9)

(20.7)

(21.4)

(27.5)

(27.8)

Tax and social security

(0.9)

(1.2)

(0.9)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Short-term borrowings

(11.5)

0.0

(4.3)

(2.3)

(0.6)

(0.6)

Other

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

(0.1)

Long-term liabilities

 

 

(9.4)

(9.1)

(7.1)

(5.6)

(15.1)

(10.2)

Long-term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

(9.5)

(4.6)

Other long-term liabilities

(9.4)

(9.1)

(7.1)

(5.5)

(5.6)

(5.6)

Net assets

 

 

67.4

32.6

31.4

23.7

37.4

43.2

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

67.4

32.6

31.4

23.7

37.4

43.2

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow before WC and tax

0.6

(31.6)

0.8

1.5

8.4

9.7

Working capital

(0.7)

7.7

(8.0)

1.6

(2.3)

(0.3)

Exceptional & other

(2.4)

22.4

(0.4)

(0.3)

(2.0)

(1.0)

Tax

1.5

(1.5)

(0.5)

(0.8)

(0.2)

(2.2)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(1.0)

(3.0)

(8.1)

2.0

4.0

6.2

Capex

(2.9)

(2.6)

(2.0)

(2.5)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

9.2

21.3

1.3

(0.3)

(20.0)

0.0

Net interest

(1.4)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(1.0)

(0.7)

Equity financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.1

14.2

0.0

Dividends

0.0

(0.7)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.0

Net cash flow

3.8

14.2

(9.4)

2.1

(4.6)

3.5

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

10.6

6.9

(7.5)

1.8

(0.5)

4.0

FX

(0.1)

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

6.9

(7.5)

1.8

(0.5)

4.0

0.5

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Future and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Future and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — Formerly Silver Wheaton (SLW)

Wheaton Precious Metal’s Q117 results were closely aligned with our prior expectations with the single exception that there was a 1.3Moz under-sale of silver relative to production, resulting in a temporary inventory build at the end of March. For the second quarter in succession, therefore, gold sales exceeded silver sales. Nevertheless, net earnings for the quarter were US$61.2m versus our expectation of US$61.4m.

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