Dentsu Group — Growth and margin progress ahead of plan

Dentsu Group (TYO: 4324)

Last close As at 20/11/2024

JPY3,692.00

66.00 (1.82%)

Market capitalisation

JPY981,334m

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Research: TMT

Dentsu Group — Growth and margin progress ahead of plan

Dentsu Group’s interim results show a strong recovery in Q221 for both Dentsu Japan (DJN) and Dentsu International (DI), with organic revenue less cost of sales (LCoS) up 15.0% in Q221, giving an increase of 5.4% for H121. The pick-up in operating margins is well ahead of expectations and the targets for FY22e (20% for DJN and 15% for DI) may even be achieved in FY21 as the transformation plan kicks in. Management has issued new guidance for FY21, including a good uplift in the planned dividend.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

TMT

Dentsu Group

Growth and margin progress ahead of plan

Interim results

Media

16 August 2021

Price

¥4,185

Market cap

¥1,168bn

Net debt at end June 21 (¥bn)

71

Shares in issue

281.7m

Free float

77.5%

Code

4324

Primary exchange

TSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

3.2

25.1

49.0

Rel (local)

3.8

18.3

23.7

52-week high/low

¥4,185

¥2,745

Business description

Dentsu Group is a holding company with two operational networks: Dentsu Japan Network and Dentsu International. Operating in over 145 countries, Dentsu Group provides a wide range of client-centric integrated communications, media and digital services.

Next events

Q3 earnings

Nov 21

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Max Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dentsu Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Dentsu Group’s interim results show a strong recovery in Q221 for both Dentsu Japan (DJN) and Dentsu International (DI), with organic revenue less cost of sales (LCoS) up 15.0% in Q221, giving an increase of 5.4% for H121. The pick-up in operating margins is well ahead of expectations and the targets for FY22e (20% for DJN and 15% for DI) may even be achieved in FY21 as the transformation plan kicks in. Management has issued new guidance for FY21, including a good uplift in the planned dividend.

Year end

Net revenue (¥bn)

PBT*
(¥bn)

EPS*
(¥)

DPS
(¥)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

939.4

101.3

271

95

15.0

2.3

12/20

835.0

123.5

250

71

16.8

1.7

12/21e

937.0

117.8

336

101

12.5

2.4

12/22e

978.4

151.4

376

112

11.2

2.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Step up in operating margins

The statement describes the group as having ‘line of sight’ to achieving the FY22 target operating margins a year ahead of plan. This reflects three factors; the first benefits of the accelerated transformation programme helping with cost reduction; operational leverage from greater throughput; and further shifts in the mix towards the customer transformation and technology (CT&T), which accounted for 29.4% of first half revenue LCoS. The business transformation is well underway, with around 20 of the DJN operating companies moving into the Shiodome Head Office building and increasing centralisation of corporate functions. For DI, management estimates that around one third of the plan is implemented. 160 brands are already down to 100 and there has been a reduction of around 300 legal entities. The costs of implementation have been lower than anticipated, as greater attrition has reduced the severance bill. With a payback of around 11 months, some benefit falls into FY21, with the balance driving further margin improvement in FY22.

Balance sheet robust

Negotiations for the sale (and leaseback) of the Shiodome building are not yet complete but must be well advanced given that the financial benefit is built into management’s full year guidance. The acquisition of LiveArea, announced in July, and the share buyback, which has now started, will absorb cash in H221, with the end June net debt figure ¥71bn benefiting from the sale of two smaller properties in Japan. Net debt is clearly well within the mid-term target of 1.5x EBITDA.

Valuation: Discount narrowed but still unjustified

The share price has recovered well from a dip during Q2, when news flow was relatively thin news and is now 35% off those lows and up 53% over the last twelve months as the outlook has clarified. This has narrowed the valuation gap to a 14% discount on EV/EBITDA and 10% on P/E, from 21% and 29% respectively at the time of our last note. Given the anticipated margin expansion, we still retain the view that this differential as overstated.

Progress on revenues and margins

The group had a particularly good Q2, in common with the other global marketing holding companies, with 15.0% organic growth and an increase of 370 bps in operating margin to 12.2%. Overall Q2 revenue LCoS was ¥218bn.

The simplification of both parts of the group should results in greater efficiency and lower costs. The real future potential gains, though, are to be achieved in greater up and cross-sell through offering an increased number of service lines to individual clients and driving up average revenues.

DJN (43% H1 revenue LCoS) - integration evolving

Organic growth for DJN overall was 4.5% in H121, although the agencies had divergent performances dependent on the nature of their activities. The largest, DENTSU Inc, posted organic growth of 3.1%, benefiting from its exposure to better performing economic sectors such as technology and food and beverage.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly organic growth, DJN Q119-Q221

Source: Company

The progress in delivering the accelerated transformation plan for DJN is clearest in the operating margin, which was 22.9% on revenue less cost of sales for the first half and is implicitly targeted at 20% for the full year. The fastest growth was, unsurprisingly, in the digital domain, which accounted for 36.7% of segmental revenue LCoS, up from 32.1% in H120. The proportion of revenue LCoS derived from the Customer Transformation and Technology (CT&T) offering was 24.6%, up 0.8% on H120 and making inroads towards the structural target of 50% over time. More details on the underlying businesses and the group’s transformation plan can be found in our February initiation note.

DI (57% group) not losing sight of its growth and margin goals

The scale of the project to drive simplification and improve returns at DI is clearly substantial and it would be easy for the interests of clients to get somewhat lost in the process. However, management is currently tacking both fronts and there has been a strong pick up in organic revenues in Q2, albeit against weak comparatives and in common with the other major global marketing holding companies.

The blended organic growth figure for revenue LCoS for DI is 6.2% in H121, with EMEA currently outperforming other regions, at +8.7%. This reflects both the economic recovery but also DI’s improving record of cross-selling service lines, a process made more efficient by the business simplification. The North American organic performance of +5.1% was boosted by strong demand for media. Digital represented 63.6% of revenue LCoS, slightly down on prior year reflecting that media rebound, while CT&T was up 2.4% at 33.0%.

Exhibit 2: Quarterly organic growth, DI Q119-Q221

Source: Company

The acquisition of LiveArea (reported to be for around $250m), which focuses on commerce solutions, will accelerate the increase in the CT&T proportion. It also increases the group’s resource in near and offshore locations, allowing for grater flexibility in the cost base. We believe that around half of its revenues are recurring, helping improve the quality as well as the quantum of earnings.

The DI segment’s new business performance and pipeline looks healthy, with management reporting $8bn of new business in the pipeline, of which 87% is described as offensive, i.e. not repatching for existing accounts.

DI’s first half operating margin of 12.3% compares with 7.7% in H120 as the first (earlier than expected) benefits come through at a lower cost than had been built into previous forecasts.

Revisions to forecasts

We have updated our forecasts in light of the progress made year-to-date and with an eye to management guidance for the full year.

Exhibit 3: Summary forecast changes

Net revenue

Underlying operating profit

Underlying EPS

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2020

835

835

124

124

250

250

2021e

846

937

+11

125

154

+23

271

336

+24

2022e

895

978

+9

150

187

+25

337

376

+12

Source: Company, Edison Investment Research

The improvement in the anticipated operating margin reflects the success to date of the accelerated transformation plan resulting in lower cost than had been forecast, coupled with a healthier trading environment.

Management is indicating a 30% earnings payout ratio, and have confirmed a FY21 dividend of ¥101, to be paid 50:50 as an interim and a final.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

¥'m

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

1,018,512

1,047,881

939,243

1,039,276

1,104,632

Cost of Sales

(85,832)

(108,496)

(104,201)

(102,270)

(126,227)

Revenue less pass through costs

932,680

939,385

835,042

937,006

978,405

EBITDA

 

 

171,404

160,279

90,061

204,649

240,271

Normalised operating profit

 

 

153,229

140,751

123,979

153,560

187,182

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(35,123)

(34,806)

(31,877)

(31,877)

(31,877)

Exceptionals

(2,149)

(99,733)

(229,631)

80,594

(1,000)

Share-based payments

(4,313)

(9,568)

(3,094)

0

0

Reported operating profit

111,638

(3,358)

(140,625)

202,277

154,305

Net Interest

(17,714)

(42,103)

(1,419)

(35,750)

(35,750)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

2,699

517

910

0

0

Exceptionals

52,128

2,175

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

190,342

101,340

123,470

117,810

151,432

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

148,751

(42,769)

(141,134)

166,527

118,555

Reported tax

(51,250)

(30,136)

(11,162)

(55,453)

(41,494)

Profit After Tax (norm)

107,321

86,653

78,177

98,329

108,431

Profit After Tax (reported)

97,501

(72,905)

(152,296)

111,074

77,061

Minority interests

(7,185)

(7,987)

(7,299)

(2,500)

(2,500)

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

97,420

76,122

69,891

94,829

105,931

Net income (reported)

90,316

(80,892)

(159,595)

108,574

74,561

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

282

281

279

282

282

EPS - basic normalised (¥)

 

 

346

271

250

336

376

EPS - diluted normalised (¥)

 

 

346

271

249

334

374

EPS - basic reported (¥)

 

 

320

(288)

(571)

385

265

Dividend (¥)

90

95

71

101

112

Net revenue growth (%)

6.3

0.7

(11.1)

12.2

4.4

EBITDA Margin to revenue less pass-through costs (%)

18.4

17.1

10.8

21.8

24.6

Normalised operating margin to revenue less pass-through costs (%)

16.4

15.0

14.8

16.4

19.1

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

1,702,899

1,862,033

1,455,591

1,370,575

1,324,083

Intangible Assets

1,036,772

1,000,313

800,551

768,150

744,273

Tangible Assets

199,207

315,116

280,196

227,581

204,966

Investments & other

466,920

546,604

374,844

374,844

374,844

Current Assets

 

 

1,935,586

1,933,691

1,924,816

1,975,401

2,123,004

Stocks

28,580

21,007

23,848

23,406

28,889

Debtors

1,368,728

1,424,127

1,293,370

1,352,482

1,411,898

Cash & cash equivalents

416,668

414,055

530,692

522,612

605,316

Other

121,610

74,502

76,906

76,901

76,901

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,785,608)

(1,859,224)

(1,759,071)

(1,779,169)

(1,864,222)

Creditors

(1,341,461)

(1,390,778)

(1,247,172)

(1,352,482)

(1,437,535)

Tax and social security

(42,981)

(17,689)

(71,228)

(71,228)

(71,228)

Short term borrowings

(104,879)

(184,816)

(72,533)

(72,533)

(72,533)

Other

(296,287)

(265,941)

(368,138)

(282,926)

(282,926)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(742,129)

(883,971)

(800,987)

(800,987)

(800,987)

Long term borrowings

(433,979)

(439,110)

(512,274)

(512,274)

(512,274)

Other long term liabilities

(308,150)

(444,861)

(288,713)

(288,713)

(288,713)

Net Assets

 

 

1,110,748

1,052,529

820,349

765,820

781,878

Minority interests

(63,129)

(77,556)

(63,483)

(65,983)

(68,483)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

1,047,619

974,973

756,866

699,837

713,395

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

208,490

47,198

(55,166)

252,493

204,521

Working capital

7,866

(28,254)

(22,538)

46,640

20,154

Exceptional & other

(35,011)

148,452

213,845

35,750

36,750

Tax

(48,296)

(87,439)

(47,828)

(91,203)

(77,244)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

133,049

79,957

88,313

243,680

184,181

Capex

(31,322)

(31,000)

(19,948)

(21,474)

(21,474)

Acquisitions/disposals

(50,555)

(47,860)

(26,585)

(100,820)

(18,000)

Net interest

0

0

0

0

0

Equity financing

(12)

(20,008)

(10,004)

(30,000)

0

Dividends

(32,055)

(30,031)

(29,574)

(20,799)

(30,003)

Other

10,768

(35,674)

141,820

(29,950)

(32,000)

Net Cash Flow

29,873

(84,616)

144,022

40,636

82,704

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

154,752

122,190

209,870

54,115

62,195

FX

(18,281)

1,490

(12,071)

0

0

Other non-cash movements

20,970

(4,554)

23,804

(48,716)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

122,190

209,870

54,115

62,195

(20,509)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Dentsu and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Dentsu. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Dentsu and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Dentsu. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Epwin Group — Expectations raised

Having previously noted 9% revenue progress for the first four months of FY21 (versus FY19), the rate improved to 13% for H121 as a whole, despite some challenges due to strong demand levels. With positive cash generation also, Epwin has had a good start to FY21 and we have increased our PBT estimates for the year by 20% to reflect this momentum.

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