Interim results and revisions to full year forecasts
GVC has adopted bwin’s label-based approach and thus its Sports labels include both sports and the gaming cross-sell net gaming revenue (NGR). Its Games label includes stand-alone gaming brands such as Foxy Bingo, partycasino and partypoker. B2B services are provided to other well-known gaming operators such as Danske Spil, while non-core includes Intertrader and Kalixa (discussions regarding a disposal of the latter are ongoing).
Exhibit 1: Pro forma* half-yearly normalised results and estimates
€m |
H115 |
2015 |
H116 |
H216e |
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
Sports labels |
275.4 |
567.1 |
312.4 |
303.6 |
616.0 |
641.0 |
673.0 |
Games labels |
109.0 |
193.6 |
102.0 |
87.5 |
189.5 |
191.5 |
200.0 |
B2B |
7.5 |
12.8 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
20.0 |
Total core |
391.9 |
773.5 |
420.9 |
398.1 |
819.0 |
848.0 |
893.0 |
Non-core |
9.9 |
36.3 |
11.1 |
9.9 |
21.0 |
20.0 |
20.0 |
Revenue by labels |
401.8 |
809.8 |
432.0 |
408.0 |
840.0 |
868.0 |
913.0 |
VAT |
6.6 |
N/A |
9.8 |
10.2 |
20.0 |
22.0 |
24.0 |
Net gaming revenue (NGR) |
408.4 |
809.8 |
441.8 |
418.2 |
860.0 |
890.0 |
937.0 |
Variable costs |
(196.1) |
(384.1) |
(203.9) |
(208.9) |
(412.8) |
(431.6) |
(459.1) |
Contribution |
212.3 |
425.7 |
228.1 |
219.1 |
447.2 |
458.3 |
477.9 |
Contribution margin % |
52.0% |
52.6% |
51.6% |
52.4% |
52.0% |
51.5% |
51.0% |
Sports labels contribution |
149.2 |
306.3 |
177.7 |
171.3 |
349.0 |
355.0 |
367.5 |
Games labels contribution |
54.7 |
102.6 |
44.4 |
41.8 |
86.2 |
88.8 |
92.0 |
B2B contribution |
7.3 |
3.2 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
13.0 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
Non-core contribution |
1.1 |
13.7 |
(0.4) |
(0.6) |
(1.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Contribution |
212.3 |
425.7 |
228.1 |
219.1 |
447.2 |
458.3 |
477.0 |
Other operating costs |
(138.8) |
(262.2) |
(123.7) |
(121.4) |
(245.1) |
(208.4) |
(192.9) |
Other op costs ratio |
34.0% |
32.4% |
28.0% |
29.0% |
28.5% |
23.4% |
20.6% |
Clean EBITDA |
73.5 |
163.5 |
104.4 |
97.7 |
202.1 |
250.0 |
285.0 |
Clean EBITDA margin |
18.0% |
20.2% |
23.6% |
23.4% |
23.5% |
28.1% |
30.4% |
Source: GVC accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Assumes that bwin.party is consolidated from 1 January.
Sports labels: Strong H116
Proforma revenue increased 13% to €312.4m (19% at constant currency) helped by an improved win margin of 9.1% (H115: 8.1%). Contribution (which is stated after marketing, betting taxes and duties and variable costs such as platform fees and payment processing) increased 19% to €177.7m. Mobile is a key driver of growth, with sports wagers on mobile up 55% and casino & games up 98%. Gaming cross-sell improved and new content deals have been signed. Euro 2016 was a success, generating €162m in wagers across the whole tournament at an impressive win ratio of 18.3%, implying gross win of almost €30m, of which 35% is reported to have fallen in Q316. The first platform migration from Sportingbet to bwin.party was completed in September and the main territories will be migrated between now and Q217 – there is some execution risk but management is extremely experienced and this is a key area for the delivery of the target cost synergies (see our Update report dated 4 February).
Games labels: New road map now in place
Proforma revenue declined by 6% to €102.0m (-2% at constant currency) and contribution fell by 19% to €44.4m. Much of the revenue decline was due to a competitive bingo market, with rivals marketing aggressively, while contribution was also affected by increased gaming taxes in Austria and Germany. During H116 GVC focused on putting in place a long-term strategic road-map for the business and bringing in some new senior hires and Q316 Games labels revenue to 15 September is reported to be up 6%.
H116 results: Proforma clean EBITDA up 42%
Management provided proforma results (assuming that bwin was consolidated from 1 January) down to the clean EBITDA level: EBITDA of €104.4m showed a 42% increase. On a group reported basis (including bwin from its date of acquisition, 1 February 2016) NGR was €390.6m (H115: €120.9m) and clean EBITDA was €91.2m (H115: €25.5m). Below the EBITDA level the reported results include material exceptional charges of €89.3m (mainly deal related costs) and €65.5m of depreciation and amortisation, of which the bulk (€52.2m) related to amortisation of acquired intangibles. The overall reported loss before tax was €86.1m (H115: PBT 17.1m).
Very positive outlook for H216 and beyond
Management’s trading statement is very positive. Q316 has started strongly with NGR for the 11 weeks to 15 September up 12% (15% at constant currency) helped by Euro 2016. We believe that around €30m of synergies will now fall in 2016 (previous estimate €20m) although some of this will be ploughed back into marketing. Thus we increase our 2016 clean EBITDA estimate by €5.6m to €202.1m. This allows for tougher H2 comparatives and some short-term disruption during the sportsbook platform migration process.
Management believes that “the organic growth potential of the group is now greater than originally anticipated”. Against this, however, there are continued regulatory and tax headwinds including the extension of the UK point of consumption tax (POCT) to gaming free bets from August 2017, and new taxes in countries that are in the process of regulating (eg Poland, Netherlands, Czech Republic). Moreover, GVC has indicated that it intends to increase investment in the business, especially in marketing (currently low versus peers at c 21% of NGR). Taking all this into account, we have increased NGR slightly (2017e now €890m, previously €878.5m) but left our 2017 and 2018 clean EBITDA estimates unchanged (Exhibit 2). We note that NGR outperformance will partly be applied to staff bonuses as part of the employee incentivisation programme.
Exhibit 2 summarises the changes to our forecasts. The interim results provided detail on the acquired assets enabling us to make a better estimation of the ongoing depreciation, amortisation of own work (which we include in our normalised profit calculations) and amortisation of acquired assets (which we exclude). As a result we have materially reduced our estimated depreciation and amortisation charge: we had cautiously allowed for €51.1m in 2016 but we now reduce that to €35.0m. With the reduction also flowing through for 2017/18 it is the main factor behind the increase to our normalised EPS forecasts (up 17% in 2016 and 6% in 2017).
Exhibit 2: Changes to estimates
|
EBITDA* (€m) |
PBT* (€m) |
EPS* (c) |
|
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
Old |
New |
% chg. |
2016p** |
196.5 |
202.1 |
+2.8 |
81.2 |
102.9 |
+26.7 |
26.7 |
31.3 |
+17.2 |
2017e |
250.0 |
250.0 |
- |
177.6 |
188.4 |
+6.1 |
53.0 |
56.2 |
+6.0 |
2018e |
285.0 |
285.0 |
- |
228.0 |
234.0 |
+2.6 |
67.3 |
69.0 |
+2.5 |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Normalised. ** pro forma includes 12-months of bwin.
Cash flow and net debt: Better than previously forecast
Net debt at 30 June was €165.1m but this is reported to have fallen to €154.3m at 24 July (post Euro 2016) which is only 0.8x annualised clean EBITDA and 11% of group net assets. H216 will bear the brunt of the cash restructuring costs but despite that, we expect a reduction to €145m at end December, which is much better than our previous estimate of €185m. The group’s underlying cash conversion is very strong and we continue to expect a material reduction in net debt, to €60m at end 2017 and into a net cash position by end 2018 in the absence of further material acquisitions.
On 2 August GVC announced that its Cerberus loan (which bears interest of 12.5%) is to be refinanced with Nomura with a new €250m facility at an initial rate of only 2%, probably from 1 February 2017. We viewed this as a big vote of confidence in GVC’s early progress and discussed it in detail in our Update note dated 4 August. At that stage we reduced our estimated finance charges and we leave them unchanged for now. We include both cash interest and fees in our estimates.
Exhibit 3: Net finance charges
|
2016e |
2017e |
2018e |
Interest |
46.7 |
8.8 |
6.8 |
Fees |
17.5 |
14.8 |
3.3 |
Total finance charges (Exhibit 4) |
64.2 |
23.6 |
10.0 |
Source: Edison Investment Research estimates
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
|
|
€m |
2014 |
2015 |
2016p* |
2017e |
2018e |
Year end 31 December |
|
|
(IFRS) |
(IFRS) |
(IFRS) |
(IFRS) |
(IFRS) |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net gaming revenue |
|
|
224.8 |
247.7 |
860.0 |
890.0 |
937.0 |
Cost of Sales |
|
|
(101.5) |
(112.4) |
(412.8) |
(431.6) |
(459.1) |
Gross Profit (contribution) |
|
|
123.3 |
135.4 |
447.2 |
458.3 |
477.9 |
EBITDA |
|
|
49.2 |
54.1 |
202.1 |
250.0 |
285.0 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
|
(5.5) |
(1.4) |
(35.0) |
(38.0) |
(41.0) |
Operating Profit (norm) |
|
|
43.7 |
52.7 |
167.1 |
212.0 |
244.0 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(52.2) |
(45.0) |
(40.0) |
Exceptional/ one-off items |
|
|
0.0 |
(24.5) |
(145.0) |
(5.0) |
0.0 |
Share based payments |
|
|
(0.7) |
(0.4) |
(15.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Operating Profit |
|
|
42.9 |
27.7 |
(45.1) |
162.0 |
204.0 |
Net finance charges (interest plus fees) |
|
|
(0.1) |
(2.2) |
(64.2) |
(23.6) |
(10.0) |
Other financial expense |
|
|
(1.6) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
41.3 |
50.0 |
102.9 |
188.4 |
234.0 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
41.3 |
25.5 |
(109.3) |
138.4 |
194.0 |
Tax |
|
|
(0.7) |
(0.8) |
4.0 |
(7.5) |
(11.7) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
40.6 |
49.2 |
106.9 |
180.9 |
222.3 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
40.6 |
24.7 |
(105.3) |
130.9 |
182.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
61.1 |
61.3 |
292.0 |
292.0 |
303.0 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
61.4 |
76.4 |
31.3 |
56.2 |
69.0 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
66.4 |
40.2 |
(36.1) |
44.8 |
60.2 |
Dividend per share (c) |
|
|
55.5 |
56.0 |
0.0 |
25.0 |
32.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
54.8 |
54.6 |
52.0 |
51.5 |
51.0 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
21.9 |
21.8 |
23.5 |
28.1 |
30.4 |
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
|
19.4 |
21.3 |
19.4 |
23.8 |
26.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
159.2 |
159.2 |
1,681.5 |
1,685.5 |
1,689.5 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
154.3 |
155.2 |
1,660.0 |
1,660.0 |
1,660.0 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
1.1 |
1.4 |
20.0 |
24.0 |
28.0 |
Deferred tax asset |
|
|
3.8 |
2.6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Current Assets |
|
|
49.5 |
72.6 |
535.0 |
460.0 |
447.5 |
Stocks |
|
|
0.0 |
3.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Debtors |
|
|
31.7 |
40.6 |
140.0 |
150.0 |
160.0 |
Cash |
|
|
4.8 |
13.4 |
285.0 |
190.0 |
157.5 |
Customer balances |
|
|
13.0 |
14.8 |
110.0 |
120.0 |
130.0 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(50.4) |
(81.0) |
(320.0) |
(450.0) |
(385.0) |
Creditors |
|
|
(46.4) |
(77.3) |
(290.0) |
(300.0) |
(310.0) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(4.1) |
(3.7) |
(30.0) |
(150.0) |
(75.0) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(8.8) |
(22.6) |
(480.0) |
(180.0) |
(130.0) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(3.1) |
(19.8) |
(400.0) |
(100.0) |
(50.0) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(5.7) |
(2.8) |
(80.0) |
(80.0) |
(80.0) |
Net Assets |
|
|
149.5 |
128.1 |
1,416.5 |
1,515.5 |
1,622.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
48.5 |
62.5 |
26.5 |
207.5 |
263.0 |
Tax |
|
|
(0.5) |
(0.7) |
(4.6) |
(10.0) |
(12.0) |
Net Interest |
|
|
(0.1) |
0.0 |
(46.7) |
(23.6) |
(10.0) |
Capex |
|
|
(5.3) |
(6.2) |
(45.0) |
(45.0) |
(50.0) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(8.0) |
(2.4) |
(1,510.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Financing |
|
|
0.9 |
(24.5) |
1,439.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends |
|
|
(33.6) |
(34.3) |
0.0 |
(44.0) |
(98.5) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
1.9 |
(5.6) |
(140.0) |
85.0 |
92.5 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
4.3 |
2.4 |
10.2 |
145.0 |
60.0 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
(0.6) |
(1.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
FX/ Other |
|
|
0.7 |
(0.7) |
5.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
2.4 |
10.2 |
145.0 |
60.0 |
(32.5) |
Source: GVC accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: * 2016p is pro forma, including bwin.party for 12 months (reported will include it from the date of acquisition, 1 February 2016).
Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. 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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by GVC Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. 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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960 Schumannstrasse 34b 60325 Frankfurt Germany |
London +44 (0)20 3077 5700 280 High Holborn London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom |
New York +1 646 653 7026 245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor 10167, New York US |
Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161 Level 25, Aurora Place 88 Phillip St, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia |
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