Stobart Group — H119 results boosted by Aviation and Energy

Stobart Group — H119 results boosted by Aviation and Energy

We see investor opportunity in Stobart’s main divisions of Aviation and Energy, which continue to perform well and will benefit from planned investment, notably in Aviation, which should expand the business and drive long-term profitability. Underlying EBITDA grew strongly, up 10% in the first half. Aviation saw a strong rise in both passenger numbers and underlying EBITDA per passenger at London Southend airport, its main business. Energy’s performance has benefitted from higher volumes, a better customer mix, operational gearing and cost management.

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Written by

Stobart Group

H119 results boosted by Aviation and Energy

H119 results update

Industrial support services

30 October 2018

Price

212p

Market cap

£751m

Net debt (£m) at 31 August 2018

75.6

Shares in issue

354m

Free float

87%

Code

STOB

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(17.3)

(13.5)

(25.8)

Rel (local)

(11.3)

(4.8)

(20.5)

52-week high/low

287.8p

204.0p

Business description

Stobart Group owns and operates London Southend Airport, renewable energy fuel processing and supply assets, a rail and civil engineering business, a property portfolio, a regional airline/leasing company and non-controlling equity investments in logistics.

Next event

FY19 pre close

February

Analysts

Robert Plant

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dario Carradori

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Stobart Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

We see investor opportunity in Stobart’s main divisions of Aviation and Energy, which continue to perform well and will benefit from planned investment, notably in Aviation, which should expand the business and drive long-term profitability. Underlying EBITDA grew strongly, up 10% in the first half. Aviation saw a strong rise in both passenger numbers and underlying EBITDA per passenger at London Southend airport, its main business. Energy’s performance has benefitted from higher volumes, a better customer mix, operational gearing and cost management.

Year end

Revenue
(£m)

Underlying
EBITDA* (£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

02/17

129.4

34.4

8.0

13.5

27.0

6.3

02/18

242.0

154.1

32.6

18.0

6.6

8.3

02/19e

278.5

25.7

2.3

18.0

91.8

8.5

02/20e

310.8

41.4

5.0

18.0

42.7

8.5

Note: *Underlying EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Results boosted by Aviation and Energy

Underlying H119 EBITDA rose from £15.4m to £17.0m, reflecting growth in the main divisions of Aviation and Energy. In Aviation, London Southend airport (LSA) saw strong growth of 37% in passenger numbers and 87% in underlying EBITDA per passenger. Management outlined new airline agreements and plans for further retail development at LSA which should boost future performance. Energy’s underlying EBITDA rose from £4.6m to £8.7m; plants commissioned last year are now approaching commercial volumes, customer mix improved and operational gearing improved in tandem with cost management. On the negative side, Rail & Civils’s underlying EBITDA swung from £1.4m profit to a loss of £4.8m, although management emphasises that this division is already turning around.

Forecast reset and acceleration in FY20

Since our last note in January we have reviewed our model for Stobart Group and take this opportunity to reset forecasts. We reduce our FY19 underlying EBITDA from £39.0m to £25.7m, mainly to account for the move from profit to loss at Rail & Civils, and introduce a FY20 estimate of £41.4m, reflecting a return to profit in Rail & Civils and continued growth in Aviation and Energy.

Valuation

We have adjusted our valuation from 285p per share to 275p, mainly to reflect the reduction in our forecasts, partly offset by a reduction in WACC. Our valuation uses a core DCF and an additional value for the company’s stake in Eddie Stobart Logistics (ESL).

Results: Good performance in Aviation and Energy

We see considerable value in Stobart’s main divisions, Aviation and Energy, as we feel they have good structural growth prospects. Both divisions performed well in H1, partly offset by a weaker performance at Rail & Civils. In H119, Stobart reported an increase in underlying EBITDA from £15.4m to £17.0m, excluding the £123.8m profit made from the sale of a stake in ESL in April 2017 (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: H1 results comparison

£m

H118

H119

Change (%)

Revenue

124.6

151.3

21%

Underlying EBITDA

139.2

17.0

(88%)

Underlying EBITDA

15.4

17.0

10%

Underlying profit before tax

122.2

(8.8)

N/A

Underlying EPS (p)

35.0

1.9

(95%)

Underlying DPS (p)

7.5

9.0

20%

Source: Stobart Group

Divisional results

Exhibit 2: Divisional revenue comparison

£m

H118

H119

Change (%)

Energy

25.3

29.9

18%

Aviation

82.4

87.1

6%

Rail & Civils

20.2

22.6

12%

Investments

-

2.0

N/A

Infrastructure

1.9

1.1

(43%)

Eliminations

(11.7)

(7.1)

N/A

Underlying total

118.0

135.6

15%

Effect of UKFFO*

6.6

15.7

140%

Reported total

124.6

151.3

21%

Source: Stobart Group. Note: *The financial effect of the accelerated investment in growth at LSA, through the UK Flybe franchise operations.

Exhibit 3: Divisional underlying EBITDA comparison

£m

H118

H119

Change (%)

Energy

4.6

8.7

89%

Aviation

13.7

15.7

15%

Rail & Civils

1.4

(4.8)

(450%)

Investments

0.8

2.8

261%

Infrastructure

0.5

(1.1)

(307%)

Central function and eliminations

(5.5)

(4.3)

(22%)

Underlying sub-total

15.4

17.0

10%

Profit on disposal of investment in ESL

123.8

-

(100%)

Underlying total

139.2

17.0

(88%)

Source: Stobart Group

Aviation shows strong growth at LSA

Aviation saw underlying EBITDA increase from £13.6m to £15.7m, boosted by strong growth in both passenger numbers and underlying EBITDA per passenger at LSA. Passenger numbers at LSA rose by 37% from 610,492 to 838,742. easyJet, the main airline customer at LSA, has decided to base a fourth aircraft at the airport which should lead to over 1m easyJet passengers in 2018. Stobart has also signed a five-year agreement with Ryanair to base three aircraft at LSA, which will add 1m passengers annually from summer 2019. Including agreements with Air Malta and Adria Airways, LSA expects to handle around 2.5m passengers in 2019, with expansion plans underway for 5m passengers.

Underlying EBITDA per passenger at LSA rose by 87%, from £1.74 to £3.26 and the results presentation conveyed a clear sense that this figure could rise further, particularly as more retail space is opened and the cost per passenger fell as airport capacity is better utilised. LSA’s development of retail space should be enhanced by the agreement it has signed with The Restaurant Group to introduce six new food and beverage brands at the airport, with Giraffe STOP and Costa Coffee already opened under this agreement. It also expects to open a new bespoke pub, The Navigator, later this year. The Holiday Inn had over 90% occupancy.

The presentation included a video presentation on LSA and one of the main points we thought interesting was how quickly passengers transit through the airport, from rail/car arrival to plane boarding, which we think should be a competitive advantage compared to the other more congested London airports. The Civil Aviation Authority recently rated LSA the most accessible airport in London and the South East.

Aviation’s three smaller businesses also showed a good performance. Stobart Jet Centre has already exceeded the volume of business seen in the whole of 2017 as capacity increased and it attracted more international customers. Stobart Air saw a 17% increase in passengers from 0.9m to 1.1m, while revenue per passenger also increased. The UK Flybe franchise operation (UKFFO), for which tickets went on sale in December 2016, commenced flights in May 2017 but is being withdrawn following the agreements with EasyJet and Ryanair to expand their operations at LSA. Stobart Aviation Services won its first external contract at London Stansted with easyJet.

Energy reported a 72% rise in underlying EBITDA

Stobart Energy is the UK’s leading provider of biomass. The division reported an increase in underlying EBITDA from £4.6m to £8.7m. The results benefitted from a 72% rise in tonnes sold from 382,775 to 657,950, due mainly to plants in commissioning last year coming on line. Underlying EBITDA per tonne rose by 10% from £12.01 to £13.19 led by customer mix, the benefits of increased volume and cost management, and is running ahead of management’s strategic target of £12. We would expect further increases in underlying EBITDA per tonne as utilisation increases and more third-party power stations come on-line.

Rail & Civils – loss in H1 but on the turn

Divisional underlying EBITDA swung from £1.4m to a loss of £4.8m. Management had been strengthened, including a new finance director, and a review of ongoing contracts led to a reduction in their forecast outturn, with a more prudent accounting policy in terms of revenue recognition. The management team is placing more focus on contract quality and securing contracts with external tier one customers. Management states that an improvement in the division’s performance has already commenced and should strengthen into next year. The division has also secured two framework agreements with Manchester’s Metrolink and achieved delivery partner status for Transpire, the Trans Pennine route upgrade.

Infrastructure

Infrastructure reported a small loss of £1.1m after a small profit of £0.5m. The loss was due to Carlisle Lake District airport being closed for development work. During the period the Carlisle office and Widnes properties were disposed of at book value or above.

Investments

In H118, the underlying EBITDA was £124.6m, which included £123.8m for the sale of the stake in ESL in April 2017 and £0.8m, which was mainly the dividend from ESL and payment for use of the Stobart brand name by ESL. The underlying EBITDA in H119 was £2.8m.

Management additions

During the period Stobart strengthened its board with the appointments of Nick Dilworth as chief operating officer and Ginny Pulbrook as non-executive director. Michael Williamson was appointed interim chief financial officer. Russell Reynolds has been appointed to identify additional board appointments including for a new chairman as Iain Ferguson will retire next year.

Forecasts and financials

Cash flow and balance sheet and capital review

Stobart’s net debt rose from £36.6m to £75.6m, although gearing is still only 22% (Exhibit 4). A number of factors caused the increase in net debt including:

Working capital increased due to the unwinding of some advanced sales.

£18m (£9m H118) investment by Stobart Air in accelerated route development, marketing, brand and customer awareness at LSA. This investment is expected to significantly reduce next year.

Further increase in cash returns to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

Management also said that in H219 it would conduct a capital review to assess the right level of investment in the business and dividend to shareholders.

Exhibit 4: Cash flow (£m)

H118

H119

Profit before tax

111.6

(18.8)

Working capital and tax

(1.0)

(5.4)

Non-cash adjusting items

(117.6)

6.1

Cash flow from operating activities

(7.0)

(18.1)

Purchase of PPE and property inventories

(53.2)

(11.7)

Other cash flow from investing activities

222.0

36.0

Dividends paid

(26.4)

(31.3)

Other cash flow from financing activities

(127.0)

11.4

(Decrease)/increase in cash

8.4

(13.7)

Cash at the beginning of the year

30.6

43.1

Cash at the end of the year

39.0

29.4

Net debt

36.6

75.6

Source: Stobart Group

We forecast net debt increasing over the next three years, partly as capex will rise to fund further investment at LSA. However, two variables could mitigate this increase:

We assume the dividend is maintained. However, management said at the results meeting that it is conducting a review of the company’s capital structure. We think, therefore it could be that the dividend is adjusted. Historically, Stobart has had a high payout/yield because the dividend was partly funded by asset disposals.

Management has stated that at some point Stobart may sell part/all of its 11.8% stake in ESL, currently worth £49m.

Forecasts reset – growth accelerates in FY20

Since our last note in January we have reviewed our model for Stobart Group and take this opportunity to reset forecasts. We reduce our FY19 underlying EBITDA from £39.0m to £25.7m, mainly to account for the move from profit to loss at Rail & Civils, and introduce a FY20 estimate of £41.4m, reflecting a return to profit in Rail & Civils and continued growth in Aviation and Energy.

Exhibit 5: Changes to estimates

Year end February

Revenues

Underlying EBITDA

(£m)

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

2019e

321.7

278.5

(13.4%)

39.0

25.7

(34.0%)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We have reduced our valuation from 285p per share to 275p, mainly to reflect our reduced forecasts, partly offset by a reduction in WACC (Exhibit 5). Our valuation is based on a core DCF valuation, using a WACC of 6.9% (previously 8.4%) and a terminal growth rate of 1% to which we add the current value of Stobart’s 11.8% stake in ESL. The main change in the WACC is due to a change in the market risk premium we used from 9% to 4%.

Exhibit 6: DCF valuation for Stobart

£m

Total discounted cash flows (FY19 to FY29)

290

Discounted terminal value

744

Stake in Eddie Stobart

49*

Total EV

1,083

Net debt (FY19)

(109)

Equity value

974

Number of shares (m)

354

Value per share (p)

275

£m

Total discounted cash flows (FY19 to FY29)

Discounted terminal value

Stake in Eddie Stobart

Total EV

Net debt (FY19)

Equity value

Number of shares (m)

Value per share (p)

290

744

49*

1,083

(109)

974

354

275

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg for pricing. Note: *Priced at 30 October 2018.

Exhibit 7: Financial summary

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

129

242

279

311

335

EBITDA (underlying)

34

154

26

41

52

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

25

139

8

22

28

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(35)

(36)

(42)

(13)

(2)

Other

2

(1)

4

0

0

Operating Profit

(8)

102

(30)

9

26

Net Interest

0

(2)

(3)

(4)

(4)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

27

136

8

18

24

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

(8)

101

(33)

5

22

Tax

(1)

(1)

2

(0)

(1)

Profit After Tax (norm)

28

133

8

17

23

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(9)

100

(31)

5

21

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

345.0

348.8

346.0

346.0

346.0

EPS - normalised (p)

8.0

38.0

2.3

5.0

6.6

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

8.0

37.1

2.3

5.0

6.6

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

(2.7)

28.7

(9.1)

1.5

6.1

Dividend per share (p)

13.5

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

26.6

63.7

9.2

13.3

15.5

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

19.3

57.3

2.8

7.0

8.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

510

487

509

517

516

Intangible Assets

108

104

100

97

93

Tangible Assets

399

378

404

416

419

Investments

3

5

5

5

5

Current Assets

156

167

185

201

212

Stocks

64

52

60

67

72

Debtors

48

65

75

84

91

Cash

31

43

43

43

43

Other

13

7

7

7

7

Current Liabilities

(89)

(107)

(119)

(130)

(138)

Creditors

(70)

(90)

(102)

(113)

(121)

Short term borrowings

(18)

(17)

(17)

(17)

(17)

Long Term Liabilities

(190)

(141)

(213)

(276)

(312)

Long term borrowings

(133)

(63)

(135)

(198)

(234)

Other long term liabilities

(57)

(78)

(78)

(78)

(78)

Net Assets

387

406

361

312

279

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

(2)

(8)

(5)

46

68

Net Interest

(2)

(3)

(3)

(4)

(4)

Tax

0

(0)

0

0

0

Capex

(14)

(75)

(42)

(30)

(25)

Acquisitions/disposals

53

124

2

0

0

Financing

21

33

40

(12)

(12)

Dividends

(35)

(58)

(64)

(62)

(62)

Net Cash Flow

21

12

(72)

(63)

(36)

Opening net debt/(cash)

48

121

37

108

171

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

73

(72)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

121

37

108

171

207

Source: Stobart Group (historics) and Edison Investment Research (estimates)

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Stobart Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Eddie Stobart Logistics — Outsourcing and e-commerce boosting growth

Eddie Stobart Logistics (ESL) saw a strong level of new contract wins in H118, which contributed to its 25% revenue growth, of which 10% was organic. We believe that new opportunities are arising as customers look to outsource their logistics to both save money and cope with the shift to e-commerce. ESL’s e-commerce revenues rose from 5% of the total in FP14 (8M14) to 21% in H118. As well as organic growth, the company is seeing a good revenue and profit contribution from acquisitions as it looks to further consolidate a fragmented market. In June, ESL completed its largest acquisition since listing when it bought The Pallet Network (TPN), which adds pallet distribution to its range.

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