Helios Underwriting — Healthy increase in net asset value

Helios Underwriting (AIM: HUW)

Last close As at 24/04/2025

GBP2.20

−1.00 (−0.45%)

Market capitalisation

GBP160m

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Research: Financials

Helios Underwriting — Healthy increase in net asset value

Helios Underwriting released an update on net asset value (NAV) as at 31 December 2024 on 8 April 2025. The company disclosed an increase in unaudited NAV per share to 214p from 206p at 30 September 2024, versus our expectation of 217.8p. The NAV benefited from a capacity portfolio revaluation of £6.4m (or c 9p/share), including the syndicate pre-emption capacity taken on for the 2025 underwriting year. While management’s best estimate for FY24 profits is healthy at £15.1m, it is somewhat below our expectations of £20m, likely due to the impact of the Los Angeles (LA) wildfires on the 2024 year of account (YOA) and a weaker-than-anticipated close-out of the 2022 YOA. The 2023 YOA performed well in our estimation and is forecast to close out strongly in FY25, but we expect a further residual impact from the wildfires. We reduce our FY24 EPS forecast to 22.4p and our FY25 forecast to 31.0p, while maintaining our longer-term forecasts. Our valuation is 3.7% lower at 270p per share.

Written by

Neil Shah

Executive Director, Content and Strategy

Insurance

FY24 net asset value update

25 April 2025

Price 221.00p
Market cap £159m

Net cash/(debt) at 30 June 2024

£22.0m

Shares in issue

72.4m
Free float 48.4%
Code HUW
Primary exchange AIM
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 5.8 5.8 46.7
52-week high/low 279.0p 150.0p

Business description

Helios Underwriting was originally established in 2007, primarily to provide investors with a limited liability direct investment into the Lloyd’s insurance market. It is an AIM-quoted holding company, providing underwriting participation across a diversified portfolio of selected Lloyd’s syndicates via its subsidiaries and now also acts for third-party capital generating risk-free fee earning.

Next events

FY24 results

May 2025

Analysts

Neil Shah
Marius Strydom
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Helios Underwriting is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. DPS does not include special dividends expected, which were included in our previous research.

Year end Revenue (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (p) DPS (p) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 214.9 22.1 21.56 6.00 10.3 2.7
12/24e 328.1 21.7 22.35 6.00 9.9 2.7
12/25e 395.4 29.5 31.03 6.00 7.1 2.7
12/26e 395.4 29.7 31.31 6.00 7.1 2.7

LA wildfires affect near-term results

While Helios’s NAV update did not detail the drivers of management’s best estimate profits for FY24, it disclosed an unaudited amount of £15.1m, which is below our £20m forecast. We believe that the results have been affected by the LA wildfires and a weaker-than-expected close-out for the 2022 YOA. We estimate a 190bp impact on the FY24 combined ratio and have adjusted our forecasts up from 88.8% to 90.7% (see Exhibit 1). We also forecast a further wildfire impact in FY25, raising the combined ratio by 160bp to 90.7%. We have reduced our FY24 EPS forecast by 18.0% and FY25 EPS forecast by 19.0%.

Global uncertainty could affect capacity growth

The Lloyd’s of London insurance market is likely to be fairly insulated from the current near-term tariff-related uncertainty, due to limited loss exposure and minimal expected impact on premium rates (which have already started to soften and are reflected in our forecasts). Near-term effects could be limited to investment returns and currency movements (a weaker dollar). However, slower global economic growth could affect capacity growth due to reduced demand. Our forecasts for Helios are already for largely flat capacity (on the back of the company’s stated strategy) and we broadly maintain our EPS forecasts from FY26 onwards.

Valuation: 270p per share

We have cut our valuation for Helios by 3.7% to 270p per share, reflecting the higher discount rate (up from 10.5% to 11.1% in the current uncertain environment) and weaker FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts. Our valuation is at a 26% premium to the FY24 NAV per share of 214p and 23% ahead of the current share price.

Financials

Valuation

Our base case valuation of 270p per share uses a 13.2% over-the-cycle return on NAV (RoNAV), down from the 14.0% used in our previous note, reflecting the healthy increase in the 31 December 2024 NAV. Our over-the-cycle RoNAV is based on the average RoNAV forecast over the next five years, which includes a turn in the cycle from FY26 and incorporates capacity fund revaluations in its calculation (0.8% pa).

At the same time, we have increased our cost of equity from 10.5% to 11.1%, based on a risk-free rate of 4.6% (up from 4.0%), a risk premium of 6.5% and a beta of 1x. The higher cost of equity allows for the increased global uncertainty seen over the past month.

Our valuation continues to use a RoNAV (versus price/NAV) approach and is determined with reference to the NAV per share disclosed as at 31 December 2024, which was 214p per share (compared to the 191p/share used in our previous valuation).

The latest valuation of 270p per share is 3.7% lower than our previous estimate, reflecting our higher cost of equity and lower near-term EPS forecasts, but benefiting from the healthy increase in the company’s NAV per share.

Upside to our valuation could come from further share buybacks (Helios announced on 8 April 2025 that it has obtained board approval for a further £2m of repurchases), a further reduction in stop-loss costs (following the review currently underway) and a longer-lasting hard underwriting cycle than allowed for in our soft landing forecast from FY26.

Our fair value for Helios is at a 1.26x multiple of its FY24 NAV of 214p per share and at a 23% premium to the current share price. The valuation is well supported by expected FY24 EPS (P/E of 12.1x based on the 270p/share valuation) and by total shareholder distribution (6.0% distribution yield based on the 270p/share valuation and combined basic and forecast special dividends). It becomes even more attractive relative to FY25 forecasts, with the valuation P/E multiple falling to 8.7x and the valuation distribution yield (including forecast special dividends) rising to 8.8%.

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