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AFT Pharmaceuticals — Improving profitability

AFT Pharmaceuticals (NZX: AFT)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

NZD2.65

▲ 0.11 (4.33%)

Market capitalisation

NZD278m

More on this equity

Research: Healthcare

AFT Pharmaceuticals — Improving profitability

AFT recently announced an agreement with Baxter Healthcare to divest to Baxter some of its non-core and low-margin hospital products in New Zealand. An agreement for similar products is expected in Australia in the coming weeks. Once both are complete, the company expects the divestments to represent approximately 7.5% of operating revenue (likely between NZ$5m and NZ$6m). The divestments are expected to generate NZ$5m in cash and make a positive contribution of “several million dollars” to EBITDA. Whatever is lost in revenues is likely to be made up in higher overall gross margin, and lower sales and marketing expenses.

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Written by

Plate of pills. Background or texture

Healthcare

AFT Pharmaceuticals

Improving profitability

Business update

Pharma & biotech

28 March 2018

Price

NZ$2.50

Market cap

NZ$243m

NZ$0.69/US$

Net debt (NZ$m) at 30 September 2017

16.1

Shares in issue

97.3m

Free float

21.2%

Code

AFT

Primary exchange

NZX

Secondary exchange

ASX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.6

4.6

(5.7)

Rel (local)

3.8

4.0

(18.7)

52-week high/low

NZ$2.8

NZ$2.2

Business description

AFT Pharmaceuticals is a specialty pharmaceutical company that operates primarily in Australasia but has product distribution agreements across the globe. The company’s product portfolio includes prescription and over-the-counter drugs to treat a range of conditions and a proprietary nebuliser.

Next events

Additional Maxigesic launches

2018

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

AFT Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

AFT recently announced an agreement with Baxter Healthcare to divest to Baxter some of its non-core and low-margin hospital products in New Zealand. An agreement for similar products is expected in Australia in the coming weeks. Once both are complete, the company expects the divestments to represent approximately 7.5% of operating revenue (likely between NZ$5m and NZ$6m). The divestments are expected to generate NZ$5m in cash and make a positive contribution of “several million dollars” to EBITDA. Whatever is lost in revenues is likely to be made up in higher overall gross margin, and lower sales and marketing expenses.

Year end

Revenue (NZ$m)

PBT*
(NZ$m)

EPS*
(NZ$)

DPS
(NZ$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/16

64.0

(10.8)

(0.11)

0.0

N/A

N/A

03/17

69.2

(18.5)

(0.19)

0.0

N/A

N/A

03/18e

80.6

(12.2)

(0.13)

0.0

N/A

N/A

03/19e

98.0

(0.5)

(0.01)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Increasing focus on Maxigesic

With the divestment of some of its hospital products in Australia and New Zealand, AFT will be achieving two things: it will improve its overall profitability and generate cash to fund its plans for Maxigesic across the globe which, if successful, would be transformative for the company.

Codeine rescheduling in Australia paying dividends

The company recently announced that the rate of Maxigesic sales has roughly doubled since the beginning of the year, thanks to the 1 February 2018 rescheduling of codeine. As a reminder, market research conducted by the company suggests that 40-47% of current consumers who buy 710 million OTC codeine analgesics each year in Australia would switch to another OTC analgesic, suggesting an enormous opportunity for AFT.

New Zealand set to follow Australia’s lead on codeine

In January, the New Zealand Medicines Classification Committee announced a recommendation that all codeine combination medicines be up-scheduled from over the counter to prescription-only status from 2020. This should boost Maxigesic sales in AFT’s home market considerably once enacted.

Valuation: NZ$460m or NZ$4.73 per share

We are maintaining our valuation of NZ$460m or NZ$4.73 per share. We will update our valuation after the closure of the hospital product divestments (New Zealand by the end of March and Australia in the May/June time frame) and following the FY18 annual results in May, which will provide us with an update on the company’s base business and the status of Maxigesic’s international launches.

Continuing to transform itself

AFT recently announced an agreement with Baxter Healthcare to divest some of its non-core and low-margin hospital products in New Zealand. An agreement for similar products is expected in Australia in the coming weeks. Once both are complete, the company expects the divestments to represent approximately 7.5% of operating revenue (likely between NZ$5m and NZ$6m). Based on results from the first half of FY18, AFT’s hospital products represent 20% of its New Zealand business and 33.6% of its Australia business (see Exhibit 1), which means that around one-third is likely to be divested. The divestments are expected to generate NZ$5m in cash and make a positive contribution of “several million dollars” to EBITDA. The company expects the New Zealand divestment to close by the end of March and the one in Australia to close in the May/June time frame.

Exhibit 1: AFT geographic and product type diversification

Region

Number of products launched

% of operating revenue

% growth from H117 to H118

Sales channel mix

Australia

102

55.3%

38%

OTC: 55.6%, hospital: 33.6%, prescription: 10.8%

New Zealand

55

38.6%

5%

OTC: 41.2%, hospital: 20%, prescription: 38.8%

South-East Asia

8

1.7%

14%

OTC: 33.3%, hospital: 65.2%, prescription: 1.5%

Rest of World

4

4.4%

38%

OTC: 95.9%, hospital: 4.1%, prescription: 0%

Total

>130

100%

23%

OTC: 51.5%, hospital: 27.6%, prescription: 21%

Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals. Note: Number of products launched is as of 31 March 2017.

With regard to Maxigesic, the company announced in March that the rate of Maxigesic sales has roughly doubled since the beginning of the year, thanks to the 1 February 2018 rescheduling of codeine to prescription-only by the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA). This is especially impressive as it is on top of the 133% growth seen in FY17 for Maxigesic in Australia.

Market research conducted by the company suggests that 40-47% of current consumers who buy 710 million OTC codeine analgesics each year in Australia would switch to another OTC analgesic rather than get a doctor’s prescription. As AFT sold 13m Maxigesic tablets in Australia in FY17, this represents a significant opportunity for the company; we estimate it could be worth NZ$20-30m annually (although we do not include this in our valuation yet).

Following the TGA decision, pressure built up for New Zealand to do the same and the country is on the road to doing just that. In January, the New Zealand Medicines Classification Committee announced a recommendation to the New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority (Medsafe) that all codeine combination medicines be up-scheduled from over the counter to prescription-only status from 31 January 2020. This should help provide AFT with a tailwind in its home market.

On the licensing front, AFT announced in December that it had licensed Maxigesic in its first North American market (it is now licensed in 125 overall), Mexico, to Expanscience Mexico, a wholly owned subsidiary of Laboratories Expanscience, which licensed the product in France. According to IMS, the market for paracetamol and ibuprofen tablets in Mexico is almost US$200m.

Valuation

We are maintaining our valuation of NZ$460m or NZ$4.73 per share. Our DCF-based valuation is based on a WACC of 10%. We assume a 22% CAGR for revenues over the next five years, from FY18 through FY22, fading to 2% terminal growth post 2026 and a terminal EBIT margin of 34%. With these assumptions, the terminal value represents 68% of the calculated DCF value of the company. The growth rate and margin expansion are highly dependent on high growth in royalties from distribution relationships outside Australia, New Zealand and South-East Asia, driven in large part by Maxigesic.

Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity table (NZ$/share)

Terminal EBIT margin

Terminal revenue growth

15%

25%

34%

38%

42%

-2%

2.26

2.98

3.62

3.90

4.19

-1%

2.34

3.12

3.82

4.13

4.44

0%

2.44

3.29

4.06

4.41

4.75

1%

2.55

3.50

4.36

4.74

5.12

2%

2.70

3.77

4.73

5.16

5.58

3%

2.88

4.10

5.20

5.69

6.18

4%

3.13

4.55

5.84

6.41

6.98

5%

3.48

5.18

6.72

7.41

8.09

Source: Edison Investment Research

We will update our valuation after the closure of the hospital product divestments (New Zealand by the end of March and Australia in the May/June time frame) and following the FY18 annual results in May, which will provide us with an update on the company’s base business and the status of Maxigesic’s international launches.

Financials

AFT’s FY18 results (through 31 March 2018) are expected in late-May. As of 30 September 2017, AFT had NZ$7.2m in cash and NZ$23.2m in debt that matures at the end of FY20. In September, the company entered into a new loan facility of US$10m and should net another NZ$5m from the divestitures. Based on current estimates, we do not believe the company will require additional financing.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

NZ$000

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

March

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

56,241

64,014

69,205

80,580

98,023

Cost of Sales

(35,083)

(40,435)

(43,207)

(45,329)

(51,266)

Gross Profit

21,158

23,579

25,998

35,251

46,757

EBITDA

 

 

(9,659)

(7,821)

(15,125)

(9,385)

1,316

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(9,530)

(7,667)

(14,982)

(9,242)

1,459

Intangible Amortisation

99

114

183

183

183

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(546)

(618)

2,245

2,712

1,179

Operating Profit

(9,977)

(8,171)

(12,554)

(6,348)

2,821

Net Interest

(1,908)

(3,145)

(3,531)

(3,000)

(2,000)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(11,438)

(10,812)

(18,513)

(12,242)

(541)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(11,885)

(11,316)

(16,085)

(9,348)

821

Tax

282

42

(58)

(300)

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(11,156)

(10,770)

(18,571)

(12,542)

(541)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(11,603)

(11,274)

(16,143)

(9,648)

821

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

1.2

96.8

97.1

97.3

97.3

EPS - normalised (NZ$)

 

 

(9.46)

(0.11)

(0.19)

(0.13)

(0.01)

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

(945.74)

(11.12)

(19.12)

(12.89)

(0.56)

EPS - (reported) (NZ$)

 

 

(9.84)

(0.12)

(0.17)

(0.10)

0.01

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

37.6

36.8

37.6

43.7

47.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

1.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

2,488

3,249

4,171

5,268

7,236

Intangible Assets

1,669

2,111

2,548

2,744

4,516

Tangible Assets

411

407

386

374

570

Investments

408

731

1,237

2,150

2,150

Current Assets

 

 

30,725

62,055

54,060

46,770

52,678

Stocks

14,686

17,686

18,718

21,137

23,607

Debtors

11,251

16,288

19,362

16,640

21,741

Cash

4,700

28,055

15,980

8,993

7,330

Other

88

26

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(10,148)

(13,511)

(15,019)

(13,795)

(17,029)

Creditors

(10,148)

(13,511)

(15,019)

(13,795)

(17,029)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(20,739)

(23,161)

(23,426)

(28,244)

(33,244)

Long term borrowings

(20,739)

(23,161)

(23,426)

(28,244)

(33,244)

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

2,326

28,632

19,786

9,999

9,641

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(11,479)

(11,326)

(15,473)

(7,519)

(2,368)

Net Interest

(1,908)

(3,145)

(3,531)

(3,000)

(2,000)

Tax

282

42

(58)

(300)

0

Capex

(483)

(694)

(1,598)

(2,179)

(2,294)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

12,859

38,357

9,042

877

0

Dividends

(763)

(1,652)

0

(132)

0

Net Cash Flow

(1,492)

21,582

(11,618)

(12,253)

(6,662)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

11,889

16,039

(4,894)

7,446

19,251

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(2,658)

(649)

(722)

448

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

16,039

(4,894)

7,446

19,251

25,914

Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by AFT Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

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295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by AFT Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: TMT

EMIS Group — GPSoC extension confirmed

EMIS has confirmed that the current GPSoC contract has been extended until 31 December 2019. Its GP business in England can therefore continue to supply software on the same basis until the new IT Futures framework is announced. This supports our forecasts for FY18 and FY19.

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