Triple Point Social Housing REIT — Improving rent collection and fully covered DPS

Triple Point Social Housing REIT (LSE: SOHO)

Last close As at 20/12/2024

GBP0.58

−1.20 (−2.04%)

Market capitalisation

GBP227m

More on this equity

Research: Real Estate

Triple Point Social Housing REIT — Improving rent collection and fully covered DPS

Triple Point Social Housing REIT (SOHO) returned to full dividend cover in H124, with EPRA earnings benefiting from inflation-linked, mostly uncapped rental growth and improving rent collection. Property valuations and NAV per share were lower, but progress with the two problem tenants and falling interest rates suggest this could reverse. Meanwhile, the shares yield more than 8% with the board targeting asset sales and share repurchases to address the discount to NAV.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Triple Point Social Housing REIT

Improving rent collection and fully covered DPS

H124 results

Real estate

17 September 2024

Price

65.8p

Market cap

£259m

Net debt at 30 June 2024

£234.6m

Gross LTV at 30 June 2024 (gross debt/gross assets)

37.2%

Shares in issue

393.5m

Free float

99%

Code

SOHO

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

6.5

16.1

18.1

Rel (local)

6.9

13.8

9.4

52-week high/low

66.5p

48.0p

Business description

Triple Point Social Housing REIT invests primarily in newly built and newly renovated social housing assets in the UK, with a particular focus on supported housing. The company aims to provide a stable, long-term, inflation-linked income with the potential for capital growth.

Next events

Q3 trading update

Exp. November 2024

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Triple Point Social Housing REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Triple Point Social Housing REIT (SOHO) returned to full dividend cover in H124, with EPRA earnings benefiting from inflation-linked, mostly uncapped rental growth and improving rent collection. Property valuations and NAV per share were lower, but progress with the two problem tenants and falling interest rates suggest this could reverse. Meanwhile, the shares yield more than 8% with the board targeting asset sales and share repurchases to address the discount to NAV.

Year end

Total income (£m)

Adjusted earnings* (£m)

Adjusted EPS* (p)

NAV**/
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

37.4

19.6

4.87

109.1

5.46

0.60

8.3

12/23

39.8

18.3

4.61

113.8

5.46

0.58

8.3

12/24e

41.7

21.8

5.55

115.2

5.46

0.57

8.3

12/25e

41.4

24.3

6.35

120.9

5.75

0.55

8.7

Note: *Excludes revaluation movements and non-recurring items and adds back non-cash loan fee amortisation. **Throughout this report, NAV is EPRA net tangible assets per share.

Rental growth continues to drive performance

With borrowing costs long term and fixed cost, rental growth and rent collection will continue to drive SOHO’s financial performance. Two-thirds of FY24 rent reviews were settled in H1, at an average 6.1% uplift to previous rents, and the modest growth in annualised rent roll (to £41.2m vs £40.0m at end-FY23) excludes a 13-home portfolio (we estimate rents of c £1.4m) at an advanced stage of sale, transferred to ‘held for sale’. H124 rental income growth of 5% would have been closer to 6% if adjusted for H223 sales. Rent collection increased to 93.3% (FY23: 90.2%) and SOHO expects this will improve further following the recent transfer of homes from Parasol to a new provider, Westmoreland. Ongoing discussions with My Space, where rents are also not being received in full, may similarly result in a lease transfer. Adjusted ‘cash’ earnings increased 28% to £10.8m and also increased on H223 (£9.9m). Adjusted EPS of 2.74p fully covered DPS (2.73p).

Disposals and share repurchases

The EPRA topped up net initial yield increased to 5.99% in H124 (end-FY23: 5.72%), more than offsetting the impact of rental growth. EPRA NTA per share fell by 1.2% to 112.4p. SOHO expects the subsequent lease transfer to have a positive impact, as should interest rate cuts. The board is focused on reducing the share price discount to NAV. It expects the sale of the £22m held for sale portfolio will underpin book value, with the proceeds supporting share repurchases and selective investment, while also maintaining a suitable level of leverage. SOHO’s £2.8m forward funding project with Golden Lane is modest but establishes a promising new partnership with a leading provider of specialised supported housing (SSH) with strong regulatory credentials.

Valuation: Yet to reflect the improved outlook

Our adjusted earnings growth forecasts are slightly reduced for FY24 (3%) and FY25 (1%) but still support our expectation that DPS will increase in FY25. The FY24 DPS targeted by SOHO reflects a yield of more than 8%, while the discount to NAV remains above 40%.

Key H124 developments

Positive outlook for rental growth

All rents are linked to either the CPI (92%) or RPI (8%) with an increasing overlay from SOHO’s new risk-sharing lease clause (for details see our March 2024 update). The clause has now been included in two-thirds of leases and SOHO hopes it will be fully rolled out before year-end. The clause sets rent uplifts at the lower of the relevant inflation index and the prevailing government policy towards social housing rent increases. Positively, the new government is indicating that it expects social housing rents to increase annually by CPI plus 1% for the next 10 years. This would indicate that SOHO rents will continue to track inflation while its tenant operators will be protected against inflationary cost pressures.

For the current year, two-thirds of SOHO’s rent reviews are linked to the September 2023 level of CPI (as is common practice in social housing) while others reflect the level of inflation prevailing at the time of review. During H124, reviews were completed on 66% of SOHO’s leases, resulting in an average uplift of 6.1% on previous rents. Of the remaining leases set to be reviewed in H224, around half are also linked to September 2023 CPI.

Rent collection has increased further

H124 rent collection increased to 93.3% compared with 88.1% in H123 and 90.2% for FY23 as a whole. Rent arrears across the portfolio represent the assets that continue to be leased to My Space (8.1% of rent roll) and the assets that were leased to Parasol (9.6% of rent roll) until being transferred to Westmoreland in August 2024. SOHO says that there are no material arrears elsewhere within the portfolio and this is supported by new disclosure on its top 10 tenants, excluding My Space and Parasol. SOHO has 27 tenants total and the other 15 represent a combined c 12% of rent roll.

Exhibit 1: Key tenant data

Approved provider (AP)

Year founded

Units managed by AP

AP occupancy

Share of SOHO rent roll

Rent collection Jan-June 2024

Inclusion

2007

4,192

88%

31.2%

100%

Falcon

2008

996

89%

9.0%

100%

Chrysalis

2003

451

90%

5.7%

100%

BEST

2020

1,454

89%

5.3%

94%

Hilldale

2009

943

94%

5.2%

100%

Auckland

2010

975

93%

4.8%

100%

Blue Square

2012

280

90%

3.9%

100%

Care HA

2003

445

86%

3.9%

100%

Highstone

2012

286

96%

3.6%

100%

Sunnyvale

2012

89

90%

1.6%

100%

Source: SOHO

The issues surrounding My Space and Parasol are covered in our March note. A creditor agreement that was put in place with Parasol in July 2023 (and later extended) was a first step in improving rent collection. The minimum monthly rent payments set under the agreement have been met in full, although the balance of rent specified in the lease agreement (we estimate c 40%) was deferred and recognised as a lease incentive. As a longer-term solution, in August 2024, the Parasol leases were transferred to Westmoreland. As a result, SOHO expects to increase rent collection from the properties to between 75% and 85% of the full amount of the existing leases’ rent during an initial stabilisation period (expected to last approximately 12 months), and thereafter up to at least 90%.

SOHO has been seeking a creditor agreement with My Space for some time and negotiations continue. We estimate that SOHO currently receives less than half of the rent due under the lease terms. However, following the successful transfer of leases away from Parasol, SOHO is engaging with My Space on how best to transfer some or all of its leases to an alternative provider, which should see a substantial increase in the rents collected.

Discount management

In June 2024, SOHO announced that it had agreed heads of terms in relation to a portfolio sale with an aggregate value in excess of £20m, expecting the sale to complete in September. Progress has been made, and the 13 properties that comprise the portfolio have been transferred on the balance sheet to held for sale with a value of £21.8m. Completion is now expected in November, allowing more time for the purchaser’s debt funder to complete its work. SOHO says the composition of the portfolio being sold is representative of its wider portfolio and contains a range of both new build and adapted properties as well as self-contained and shared homes. The EPC2 ratings of the properties range from B to D.

  Energy Performance Certificate

Exhibit 2: Comparison of sale portfolio to the wider portfolio

Sale portfolio

SOHO total portfolio

EPC rated A–C

69%

71%

EPC D

30%

22%

Weighted average unexpired lease term

19 years

24 years

New build/purpose built

25%

42%

Adapted

75%

58%

Source: SOHO

The proceeds will support further share repurchases (shares with a value of £5m were repurchased in 2023) while also maintaining a suitable level of leverage. The board says that further portfolio sales will be considered.

Growth opportunities compete for capital

In June 2024, work commenced on the previously disclosed forward funding of a development of 12 adapted flats for people with learning disabilities in Chorley and which will be leased to Golden Lane.

Forward funding projects bring new, specially adapted supply to the sector and SOHO has completed 33 forward funding projects since launch, although the last was completed in March 2021. These are typically low risk, being pre-let with fixed construction costs. We would expect the initial yield on investment to be broadly in line with the portfolio average (ie 6%), well ahead of the 2.74% cost of debt, fixed for around 10 years. Subsequent rent indexation would generate an increasing return on cost. Strategically, Golden Lane is an excellent partner with which to grow.

Eco-retrofit pilot launched

In July 2023, SOHO launched the pilot phase of its ‘eco-retrofit’ project, which will see SOHO investing to upgrade the energy efficiency of certain of its properties and preserving their long-term value. All socially rented properties are required to have an EPC rating of C or above by 2030 and 71% of SOHO’s properties already meet this hurdle, compared with the 43% social housing sector average.

Of the 11 properties included in the pilot, which is not scheduled to complete until later in the year, eight now have an EPC rating of C or above and work continues on the other three. SOHO expects the project to come in under budget, in part because of the availability of grant funding. SOHO has not yet completed surveys of the larger group of properties in its portfolio that will be the subject of the post-pilot phase of the retrofit programme, but it currently estimates that, once grant funding is accounted for and assuming that it continues to be available, the cost should be between £2.5m and £5.0m.

Forecasts: Rental growth to drive earnings

Our adjusted earnings growth forecasts for FY24 and FY25 are reduced by 3% and 1%, respectively. For FY24 this is driven by higher credit loss impairment due to slower progress with Parasol and My Space than we had assumed. In FY25 it results from the portfolio disposal expected to complete in late 2024. We have assumed £20m of share repurchases, at the current share price, utilising the disposal proceeds, but spread evenly across FY25. On an annualised basis the asset sale and share repurchase is accretive to earnings and NTA, but because of the assumed lag in deploying the proceeds, the effect will not have a full impact until FY26.

Exhibit 3: Forecast summary

Forecast

Previous forecast

Change

£m unless stated otherwise

FY24e

FY25e

FY24e

FY25e

FY24e

FY25e

Total income

41.7

41.4

41.4

42.7

1%

-3%

Investment management fees

(4.7)

(4.8)

(4.8)

(5.0)

-2%

-4%

Administrative expenses

(3.6)

(4.0)

(3.6)

(4.4)

-1%

-9%

Expected credit loss

(2.6)

0.0

(1.0)

0.0

Net finance expense

(7.7)

(7.8)

(7.6)

(7.6)

2%

2%

EPRA earnings

23.1

24.9

24.4

25.6

-6%

-3%

Amortisation of loan arrangement fees

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Exclude change in lease incentive debtor

(1.5)

(0.9)

(2.3)

(1.3)

Adjusted earnings

21.8

24.3

22.4

24.6

-3%

-1%

EPRA EPS (p)

5.86

6.50

6.20

6.51

-6%

0%

Adjusted EPS (p)

5.55

6.35

5.69

6.26

-3%

1%

DPS declared (p)

5.46

5.75

5.46

5.75

0%

0%

EPRA DPS cover (x)

1.07

1.13

1.14

1.13

Adjusted DPS cover (x)

1.02

1.10

1.04

1.09

EPRA NTA per share (‘NAV’)

115.2

120.9

117.0

120.7

NAV total return

6.1%

9.9%

7.7%

7.9%

Source: Edison Investment Research

The key drivers of performance over the forecast period are rent growth and rent collection. With inflation moderating, we expect like-for-like rent growth in FY24 to be c 5%. For FY25 we assume a 2% increase across the portfolio. We assume that rent collection for the leases recently transferred to Westmoreland increases in line with SOHO’s expectations. For the My Space leases we have assumed a full contribution from the beginning of FY25, but with a one-off step-down in rents of 15%. On this basis we forecast no recurrence of credit loss allowance in FY25.

Summary of the investment case

We have previously noted that with rent collection and dividend cover rebuilding, and as issues with problem tenants move closer to a resolution, we expect investors to give greater focus to the underlying investment case and continuing low valuation of the shares. In particular, we would highlight:

SOHO operates in a structurally supported sector, providing a high level of social benefit.

SSH provides homes for some of the most vulnerable in society, in need of high levels of care and support, often spanning decades, and requiring accommodation that is suitably adapted to the residents.

There is a chronic shortage of all forms of social housing, including SSH, and it is widely expected that the demand will continue to increase, driven by greater penetration of the existing population in need and the further growth of that population, primarily driven by improved post-natal care and increased life expectancy.

Private capital has a crucial role to play in meeting the need for more, better-quality SSH homes.

For investors, SOHO provides a high level of inflation linkage and protection against higher interest rates.

The rent costs for residents in SSH are directly supported by the government through housing benefit awards, which have historically tracked inflation closely. SOHO’s leases are all linked to the lower of inflation or housing benefit policy.

All borrowing is fixed rate at a low average cost of 2.74% with a weighted average maturity of c 10 years.

In August 2023, Fitch Ratings reaffirmed the group’s existing investment-grade, long-term Issuer Default Rating of ‘A-’ and a senior secured rating of ‘A’ for the group’s existing loan notes. It revised the outlook from stable to negative but said that it intended to review this on resolution of the arrears situation with Parasol and My Space and the outcome of the board’s independent review of the company’s investment management arrangements.3

  The board of SOHO is in a process of reviewing the company’s investment arrangements as part of its commitment to explore all avenues for delivering value for shareholders and expects to report its conclusions soon.

Active regulation of the sector will support sustainable long-term returns.

The social housing sector has traditionally had a low financial risk profile, in part due to the ongoing monitoring presence of the Regulator of Social Housing and the fact that much of the rent is funded by central government through housing benefits.

Regulatory engagement is promoting greater accountability and transparency across the sector and higher financial governance standards, which we believe is to be welcomed and will enhance the resilience and sustainability of the sector.

SOHO expects some consolidation among providers over the next two years, which should create larger and stronger counterparties for SOHO.

Details of the H124 financial performance

In the table below we lead with EPRA earnings and show a reconciliation to the company’s adjusted ‘cash’ earnings, an approximate guide to the cash generated to support dividends, and then the statutory IFRS results. In summary we highlight:

Annualised contracted rent roll at end-H124 was £41.2m, which excludes the assets that were transferred to ‘held for sale’. Including these, we estimate rent roll to have been £42.6m (end-FY23: £41.0m), with the increase driven by rent reviews in the period.

Rental income increased by 5% versus H123, while the expected credit loss reduced as a result of the creditor agreement with Parasol.

Administrative expenses were at a similar level to H123 and slightly down on H223. The EPRA cost ratio fell further to 18.7% (H123: 21.1%; FY23: 20.6%).

The cost of the company’s long-term, fixed-rate debt was unchanged.

EPRA earnings increased 28% to £11.4m versus £8.7m in H123, and also increased versus H223 (£10.8m). EPRA EPS increased 33% to 2.90p.

Adjusted ‘cash’ earnings adds back loan fee amortisation and excludes the net increase in lease incentive debtor position. Adjusted earnings increased 28% to £10.8m or EPS of 2.74p, fully covering DPS of 2.73p.

IFRS earnings of £5.3m includes the movement in property fair values.

The EPRA NTA per share increase to 112.4p was above the prior year level but was 1.2% lower compared with end-FY23.

The end-H124 cash balance of £29.3m was little changed on end-FY24 and just £0.4m was ‘restricted’. Borrowings were unchanged and the gross LTV was 37.2%.

Exhibit 4: Summary of H124 financial performance

£m unless stated otherwise

H124

H123

H124/H123

H223

Rental & other income

20.5

19.6

5%

20.3

Expected credit loss

(1.4)

(3.2)

(1.4)

Investment management fee

(2.3)

(2.3)

0%

(2.3)

Administration expenses

(1.5)

(1.6)

-7%

(2.0)

Recurring net finance expense

(3.8)

(3.7)

3%

(3.8)

EPRA earnings

11.4

8.7

31%

10.8

Exclude amortisation of loan arrangement fees

0.1

0.1

0.2

Exclude movement in lease incentive debtor

(0.8)

(0.5)

(1.0)

Adjusted earnings

10.8

8.4

28%

9.9

Change in fair value of investment properties

(6.1)

5.9

9.6

Non-recurring write-off of loan arrangement fees

0.0

0.0

0.0

Add back adjusted earnings items

0.6

0.3

0.9

IFRS earnings

5.3

14.6

-64%

20.4

Basic & diluted IFRS EPS (p)

1.35

3.65

-63%

5.18

EPRA EPS (p)

2.90

2.18

33%

2.74

Company adjusted EPS (p)

2.74

2.10

31%

2.52

DPS (p)

2.73

2.73

0%

2.73

EPRA earnings basis dividend cover (x)

1.06

0.80

1.00

Adjusted earnings basis dividend cover (x)

1.01

0.77

0.92

Investment portfolio

670.6

673.3

675.5

Gross borrowings

(263.5)

(263.5)

(263.5)

Cash

29.3

23.8

29.5

Net assets

442.2

438.0

447.6

IFRS & EPRA NTA per share (p)

112.4

111.3

113.8

NAV total return

1.2%

4.6%

4.7%

Gross gearing (gross debt/gross assets)

37.2%

37.5%

37.0%

Net LTV (net debt/portfolio valuation)

36.2%

36.1%

34.7%

Source: SOHO data, Edison Investment Research

Outperforming peer group and closing valuation gap

Since listing in 2017, SOHO has built a track record of consistent, low-volatility accounting returns.

Exhibit 5: Accounting/NAV total return history

Pence per share unless stated otherwise

FY17*

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

H124

Cumulative since IPO

Opening NAV

98.00

100.84

103.65

105.37

106.42

108.27

109.06

113.76

98.0

Closing NAV

100.84

103.65

105.37

106.42

108.27

109.06

113.76

112.38

112.4

DPS paid

0.00

4.75

5.06

5.17

5.20

5.40

5.46

2.73

33.8

Dividend return

0.0%

4.7%

4.9%

4.9%

4.9%

5.0%

5.0%

2.4%

34.4%

Capital return

7.3%

2.8%

1.7%

1.0%

1.7%

0.7%

4.3%

-1.2%

14.7%

NAV total return

7.3%

7.5%

6.5%

5.9%

6.6%

5.7%

9.3%

1.2%

49.1%

Average annual return

6.0%

Source: SOHO data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Annualised return from August 2017.

The accounting total return has not been matched by the share price and SOHO shares trade with a prospective FY24 yield of more than 8% and a discount to EPRA NTA of more than 40%.

SOHO’s share price has increased markedly from a 2023 low of c 42p, and over the past year it has strongly outperformed the selected group of peers listed below, a group of companies investing in some form of social housing or healthcare properties. Three-year and five-year performance is now broadly in line with peers. It should be noted, however, that the group has underperformed the wider property sector and the broad UK market more so. Compared with the peer group, SOHO’s valuation discount has narrowed but has not fully closed. Despite holding its dividend flat for the current financial year, its shares have retained a yield premium to peers and trade at a significantly higher discount to EPRA NTA.

Exhibit 6: Peer valuation and performance comparison

Price

Market cap

P/NAV*

Yield**

Share price performance

(p)

(£m)

(x)

(%)

3 months

1 year

3 years

5 years

Assura

42

1364

0.82

7.8

7%

-7%

-44%

-40%

Impact Healthcare

91

376

0.79

7.5

7%

4%

-25%

-18%

Primary Health Properties

101

1355

0.94

6.7

12%

4%

-37%

-26%

Residential secure Income

53

99

0.66

9.7

18%

-14%

-49%

-43%

Target Healthcare

90

556

0.82

6.3

13%

17%

-25%

-20%

Average

0.81

7.6

11%

1%

-36%

-29%

Triple Point Social Housing

66

259

0.58

8.3

15%

18%

-36%

-27%

UK property sector index

1,419

7%

18%

-25%

-16%

UK equity market index

4,526

2%

8%

12%

12%

Source: Company data, LSEG Data & Analytics. Note: Prices at 17 September 2024. *Based on last reported EPRA NAV. **Based on trailing 12-month DPS declared.

Exhibit 7: Financial summary

Period ending 31 December (£m)

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

INCOME STATEMENT

Total income

28.9

33.1

37.4

39.8

41.7

41.4

Expected credit loss

0.0

0.0

(2.1)

(4.6)

(2.6)

0.0

Investment management fees

(4.1)

(4.6)

(4.7)

(4.7)

(4.7)

(4.8)

Other expenses

(2.2)

(2.1)

(2.9)

(3.2)

(3.6)

(4.0)

Operating profit/(loss) before revaluation of properties

22.3

26.2

27.5

27.0

30.8

32.6

Change in fair value of investment properties

7.9

9.0

8.3

15.5

4.3

2.9

Operating profit/(loss)

30.2

35.2

35.7

42.5

35.0

35.5

Net finance income/(expense)

(5.6)

(6.8)

(10.8)

(7.5)

(7.7)

(7.8)

PBT

24.6

28.4

24.9

35.0

27.3

27.7

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net profit

24.6

28.4

24.9

35.0

27.3

27.7

Adjusted for:

Change in fair value of investment properties

(8.0)

(9.0)

(8.3)

(15.5)

(4.3)

(2.9)

Loan arrangement fees written off

0.0

0.0

2.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

EPRA earnings

16.6

19.4

19.3

19.5

23.1

24.9

Interest capitalised on forward funded developments

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Amortisation of loan arrangement fees

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.3

0.3

0.3

Change in lease incentive debtor

0.0

0.0

(0.6)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(0.9)

Company adjusted earnings

17.7

20.7

19.6

18.3

21.8

24.3

Basic & diluted average number of shares (m)

360.9

402.8

402.8

397.0

393.5

382.1

Basic & diluted IFRS EPS (p)

6.82

7.05

6.18

8.81

6.94

7.25

EPRA EPS (p)

4.61

4.82

4.78

4.92

5.86

6.50

Company adjusted EPS (p)

4.90

5.14

4.87

4.61

5.55

6.35

DPS declared (p)

5.18

5.20

5.46

5.46

5.46

5.75

EPRA EPS/DPS (x)

0.89

0.93

0.88

0.90

1.07

1.13

Company adjusted EPS/DPS (x)

0.95

0.99

0.89

0.85

1.02

1.10

EPRA cost ratio

23.3%

20.9%

21.1%

20.6%

19.9%

21.3%

EPRA NTA total return

5.9%

6.6%

5.7%

9.3%

6.1%

9.9%

BALANCE SHEET

Investment properties

572.1

641.3

667.7

675.5

659.5

663.0

Other receivables

0.0

2.3

2.9

4.2

5.8

6.7

Total non-current assets

572.1

643.6

670.6

679.7

665.3

669.7

Cash & equivalents

53.7

52.5

30.1

29.5

50.6

32.2

Other current assets

4.3

3.9

4.3

3.9

3.5

3.5

Total current assets

58.0

56.4

34.4

33.3

54.2

35.7

Trade & other payables

(5.0)

(3.7)

(3.1)

(2.7)

(3.3)

(3.2)

Other current liabilities

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total current liabilities

(5.0)

(3.7)

(3.1)

(2.7)

(3.3)

(3.2)

Bank loan & borrowings

(194.9)

(258.7)

(261.1)

(261.2)

(261.5)

(261.8)

Other non-current liabilities

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.5)

(1.3)

(1.3)

Total non-current liabilities

(196.4)

(260.2)

(262.6)

(262.7)

(262.8)

(263.1)

Net assets

428.7

436.1

439.3

447.6

453.4

439.2

EPRA net assets

428.7

436.1

439.3

447.6

453.4

439.2

Period-end basic & diluted number of shares (m)

402.8

402.8

402.8

393.5

393.5

363.2

EPRA NTA/ IFRS NAV per share (p)

106.4

108.3

109.1

113.8

115.2

120.9

CASH FLOW

Net cash flow from operating activity

24.5

24.7

25.7

25.9

29.7

31.6

Cash flow from investing activity

(94.4)

(61.4)

(18.3)

7.6

20.4

(0.6)

Net proceeds from equity issuance

53.1

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Loan interest paid

(4.6)

(5.6)

(7.2)

(7.2)

(7.4)

(7.4)

Bank borrowings drawn/(repaid)

29.4

65.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share repurchase

0.0

0.0

0.0

(5.0)

0.0

(20.0)

Dividends paid

(18.8)

(20.9)

(21.7)

(21.6)

(21.5)

(22.0)

Other cash flow from financing activity

(1.1)

(2.7)

(0.6)

(0.2)

(0.0)

0.0

Cash flow from financing activity

58.0

35.7

(29.6)

(34.1)

(28.9)

(49.5)

Change in cash

(11.9)

(1.0)

(22.2)

(0.7)

21.2

(18.4)

Opening cash

64.7

52.9

51.9

29.7

29.0

50.3

Closing cash (excluding restricted cash)

52.9

51.9

29.7

29.0

50.3

31.8

Restricted cash

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Cash as per balance sheet

53.7

52.5

30.1

29.5

50.6

32.2

Debt as per balance sheet

(194.9)

(258.7)

(261.1)

(261.2)

(261.5)

(261.8)

Unamortised loan arrangement costs

(3.6)

(4.8)

(2.4)

(2.3)

(2.0)

(1.7)

Total debt

(198.5)

(263.5)

(263.5)

(263.5)

(263.5)

(263.5)

Net (debt)/cash excluding restricted cash

(145.6)

(211.6)

(233.8)

(234.5)

(213.2)

(231.7)

Net LTV (net debt/investment property)

25.5%

33.0%

35.0%

34.7%

32.3%

34.9%

Company gearing (gross debt/gross asset value)

31.5%

37.6%

37.4%

37.0%

36.6%

37.4%

Source: SOHO historical data, Edison Investment Research forecasts

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Triple Point Social Housing REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Triple Point Social Housing REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Triple Point Social Housing REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Triple Point Social Housing REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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