Canacol Energy — Increasing reserves despite reduced 2020 drilling

Canacol Energy (TSX: CNE)

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Research: Energy & Resources

Canacol Energy — Increasing reserves despite reduced 2020 drilling

In 2020, Canacol replaced 61.9bcf of production (equivalent to 170mmscfd) with 75bcf of reserves, delivering a reserves replacement ratio of 122%. This is a commendable result given the company executed a pared down drilling programme in 2020 with only six wells drilled, of which two were exploration wells. The company expects to drill 12 wells in 2021, which should continue to replace rising production, with February sales recently reported of 187mmcfd.

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Energy & Resources

Canacol Energy

Increasing reserves despite reduced 2020 drilling

Reserves update

Oil & gas

9 March 2021

Price

C$3.43

Market cap

C$616m

C$1.26/US$

Net debt (US$m) at 30 September 2020

329

Shares in issue

180.6m

Free float

67%

Code

CNE

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

BVC

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.7)

(9.1)

(13.5)

Rel (local)

(4.4)

(13.1)

(24.2)

52-week high/low

C$4.14

C$2.82

Business description

Canacol Energy is a natural gas exploration and production company primarily focused on Colombia.

Next events

FY20 results

18 March 2021

2021 drill programme

Ongoing

Analysts

James Magness

+44 (0)20 3077 5756

Elaine Reynolds

+44 (0)20 3077 5713

Canacol Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In 2020, Canacol replaced 61.9bcf of production (equivalent to 170mmscfd) with 75bcf of reserves, delivering a reserves replacement ratio of 122%. This is a commendable result given the company executed a pared down drilling programme in 2020 with only six wells drilled, of which two were exploration wells. The company expects to drill 12 wells in 2021, which should continue to replace rising production, with February sales recently reported of 187mmcfd.

Year end

Revenue* (US$m)

Adjusted EBITDAX**
(US$m)

Cash from operations
(US$m)

Net debt***
(US$m)

Capex****
(US$m)

Yield
(%)

12/18

204.5

138.6

94.0

288.1

(75.5)

N/A

12/19

219.5

162.8

108.4

300.3

(84.3)

1.4

12/20e

234.3

195.1

180.1

286.2

(108.0)

7.7

12/21e

228.4

187.2

156.3

306.5

(119.0)

7.7

Note: *Revenue net of transport expense and royalty. **Adjusted EBITDAX is before non-recurring or non-cash charges and exploration expense. ***Cash and equivalents minus short- and long-term debt. ****Forecasts based on 2019 reserves 2P production profile.

2P reserves continue to grow, production increasing

In Canacol’s latest annual reserves report, 2P reserves increased by 2.2% to 637.2bcf, although this was at a lower rate of increase than in previous years, given reduced drilling activity in 2020 due to COVID-19 restrictions. Canacol has increased 2P reserves every year since 2015, and with its high exploration success rates and continued drilling activity we expect this trend to continue. Meanwhile production rates continue to increase in 2021 with February 2021 gas sales reaching 187mmscfd, up 6% on January sales and close to the high-end of the 153–190mmscfd company guidance range for the year; our base case valuation currently reflects 172mmscfd.

Gas price pressure affects reserves valuations

Despite adding reserves across the 1P, 2P and 3P categories in its 2020 reserve report, Canacol’s technical auditors have reduced their gas price assumptions for the next five years by on average 21%, and this has reduced the technical valuation of the company’s reserves by c 20%. Canacol’s technical auditors’ gas price assumptions are broadly in line with Edison prices assumptions, which we updated as part of a wider review of the Colombia gas markets in our Outlook note published in January 2021.

Valuation: Base case valuation C$5.87/share

Edison’s risked exploration net asset value (RENAV) is based on a combination of 2P reserves and additional ‘to be developed’ risked reserves that we expect to be added over the next five years. Assumed additional risked reserves of c 72bcf/a (broadly in line with the 2020 reserves additions) drive a base case valuation of C$5.87/share. We expect to update our valuations after the FY20 results, which are due to be published on 18 March 2021.

Continued growth despite headwinds

Canacol added 75bcf of new reserves in 2020 that more than offset gross production of 61.9bcf, realising a reserves replacement ratio of 122% for the year. This was despite having to execute a pared down drilling programme as a result of COVID-19; a planned 12-well programme was reduced to only six wells, of which two were exploration. 2P reserves increased by 2.2% to 637.2bcf, although this was at a lower rate of increase than in previous years, as the company continued its strategy of steadily drilling its 162 individual prospects and leads historically underpinned by an exploration and appraisal success rate of over 80%. The company has a reserves life index (RLI) of 9.2 years based on gas production of 190mmscfd, in line with company high-end guidance for 2021, and above Canacol’s targeted RLI of eight years.

Exhibit 1: Canacol 2P reserves growth

Source: Edison Investment Research, Canacol Energy

Our base case scenario assumes a short production plateau in 2023/2024 of 235mmscfd (based on 205mmscfd of the 215mmscfd pipeline capacity and 30 mmscfd allocated to the 200MW Tesorito plant) and our upside case assumes 345mmscfd from 2025 when the proposed 285km new pipeline from Jobo-Medellin, with 100mmscfd capacity, is estimated by Canacol to come online. Under these scenarios, the RLI at current 2P levels would reduce to 7.4 years and 5.0 years respectively.

Production has continued to recover strongly, with February 2021 gas sales reaching 187mmscfd, up 6% on January sales and close to the 190mmscfd guidance for the year. Canacol plans to drill 12 wells in 2021: nine exploration wells and three development wells. The first two wells of the programme have completed drilling, with the Oboe-2 development well completed and tied into the Jobo gas processing facility. The Flauta-1 exploration well did not encounter commercial gas and has been plugged and abandoned. The rigs are currently mobilising to drill the Cañahuate 4 development well and the Milano 1 exploration well, both of which are expected to spud in the second week of March and take around five weeks to drill.

Gas price assumptions and reserves NPV implications

In conducting its 2020 reserves report, Canacol’s technical consultants, Boury Global Energy Consultants (BGEC), assumed a markedly lower gas price outlook than in 2019 to value the company’s reserves, as shown in Exhibit 2. Average price assumptions over the period 2021 to 2024 are 21% below the price realisations assumed at the end of 2019.

This reflects a reduction in Canacol’s fixed-price gas contract realisations during 2020 and probable pricing pressure from gas sales at interruptible price forecasts, given reduced demand due to COVID-19. The new gas price outlook is broadly consistent with Edison’s existing gas price assumptions as we had previously assumed that prices would come under some pressure for the coming years. For more details of the basis for Edison’s gas price outlook, and the wider gas supply/demand and price outlook in Colombia refer to our January 2021 Outlook note.

Exhibit 2: BGEC gas price assumptions vs Edison forecasts

Five-year gas price forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2019 reserve report (US$/mmBtu)

5.53

5.81

6.12

7.55

-

2020 reserve report (US$/mcf)

4.39

4.93

5.12

5.29

5.59

Edison forecasts (US$/mcf)

4.39

4.61

4.73

4.85

5.50

Source: Canacol Energy, Edison Investment Research

As a consequence of the reduced gas price outlook, BGEC has reported a c 20% reduction in NPV-10 valuations for Canacol’s gross reserves (Exhibit 3). Given Canacol’s low operating costs, this pass through of prices to valuation is what we would have expected.

Exhibit 3: BGEC reserves valuations

Gross reserves

Proved developed producing

Total proved

Total proved + probable

Total proved + probable + possible

Product type

(PDP)

(1P)

(2P)

(3P)

Canacol Energy gross reserves summary December 2019

Conventional natural gas

bcf

251.9

394.1

623.8

884.8

Total oil equivalent

mmboe

44.2

69.1

109.4

155.2

Before tax NPV -10

US$m

877.2

1,345

2,145

2,879.3

After tax NPV-10

US$m

703.3

1,033.4

1,583.2

2,087.2

Canacol Energy gross reserves summary December 2020

Conventional natural gas

bcf

276.9

394.8

637.2

951.1

Total oil equivalent

mmboe

48.6

69.3

111.8

166.9

Before tax NPV -10

US$m

750.8

1,030.6

1,688.2

2,407.1

After tax NPV-10

US$m

631.5

822.6

1,269.8

1,758.8

Difference

Conventional natural gas

bcf

10%

0%

2%

7%

Total oil equivalent

mmboe

9%

0%

2%

8%

Before tax NPV -10

US$m

-14%

-23%

-21%

-16%

After tax NPV-10

US$m

-10%

-20%

-20%

-16%

Source: Canacol Energy

As a reminder, Edison’s base case valuation (total NAV) is based on a combination of 2P reserves and production from an additional 800bcf of target volumes that we expect to be discovered and developed over the next five years. Our valuation assumes a 45% success rate from this exploration activity hence we are adding effectively the equivalent of 72bcf of risked additional gas volumes to the reserves inventory on an annual basis. Given Canacol’s continued strong reserves replacement ratio and high exploration success, we remain confident of this approach for the foreseeable future.

Based on our previous modelling of reserves and to be discovered volumes of gas, our base case valuation for Canacol (including net debt, SG&A etc) is US$846m or C$5.87/share (using a 12.5% discount rate). Full details of this valuation, and upside and downside sensitivities, can be found in our Outlook note published in January 2021. We expect to update our valuation to reflect the updated reserves and other material differences after the FY20 results (which are due to be published on 18 March 2021).


Exhibit 4: Financial summary

 

US$m

 

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year-end 31 December

 

 

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue*

 

 

204.5

219.5

234.3

228.4

Cost of sales (opex)

(28.9)

(17.1)

(15.6)

(16.4)

Gross profit

175.6

202.4

218.7

212.0

General & admin

(28.2)

(29.0)

(24.2)

(24.8)

Share based payments

(8.5)

(7.9)

(8.1)

(8.3)

Exploration expense

(13.7)

(3.0)

(3.0)

(3.1)

Adjusted EBITDAX**

 

 

138.6

162.8

195.1

187.2

Depreciation

(44.2)

(54.3)

(61.2)

(61.2)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

41.9

97.6

122.1

114.6

Intangible amortisation

-

-

-

-

Exceptionals

-

-

-

-

Other

-

-

-

-

EBIT

41.9

97.6

122.1

114.6

Net interest

(34.5)

(32.9)

(29.4)

(28.9)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

7.3

64.7

92.7

85.7

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

7.3

64.7

92.7

85.7

Tax

(29.2)

(30.5)

(15.0)

(31.7)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(21.8)

34.2

77.7

54.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(21.8)

34.2

77.7

54.0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

177.2

178.3

181.0

180.6

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(12.32)

19.21

42.95

29.92

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

(12.32)

19.21

42.95

29.92

EPS - (IFRS) (US$)

 

 

(0.12)

0.19

0.43

0.30

Dividend per share (c)

-

0.05

0.21

0.21

Gross margin (%)

85.87

92.19

93.34

92.83

EBITDA margin (%)

85.87

92.19

93.34

92.83

Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%)

20.48

44.48

52.11

50.17

BALANCE SHEET

Non-current assets

 

 

580.3

620.8

664.5

719.2

Intangible assets

39.6

53.9

116.8

181.7

Tangible assets

480.4

506.1

486.9

476.6

Investments

60.3

60.8

60.8

60.8

Current assets

 

 

124.7

133.3

144.7

112.4

Stocks

0.3

-

-

-

Debtors

68.2

69.6

69.6

69.6

Cash

51.6

41.2

52.7

20.3

Other/ restricted cash

4.6

22.4

22.4

22.4

Current liabilities

 

 

(69.3)

(97.8)

(97.8)

(97.8)

Creditors

(69.3)

(89.6)

(89.6)

(89.6)

Short-term borrowings

-

(8.2)

(8.2)

(8.2)

Long-term liabilities

 

 

(430.3)

(413.5)

(410.8)

(398.8)

Long-term borrowings

(339.7)

(333.4)

(330.7)

(318.7)

Other long-term liabilities (inc. decomm.)

(90.6)

(80.1)

(80.1)

(80.1)

Net assets

 

 

205.4

242.7

300.6

335.0

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow

 

 

94.0

108.4

180.1

156.3

Capex inc acquisitions****

(75.5)

(84.3)

(108.0)

(119.0)

Financing expenses

(36.0)

(29.5)

(30.0)

(29.7)

Equity issued

(3.7)

2.1

-

-

Dividends

-

(7.1)

(28.0)

(28.0)

Net cash flow

(21.2)

(10.4)

14.1

(20.3)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

255.5

288.1

300.3

286.2

HP finance leases initiated

-

-

-

-

Other

(11.4)

(1.9)

0.0

(0.0)

Closing net debt/(cash)***

 

 

288.1

300.3

286.2

306.5

Source: Edison Investment Research, Canacol Energy accounts. Note: *Edison revenue forecast net of royalties and transport expenses; Canacol reports revenues net of royalties before transport expenses. **Adjusted EBITDAX is before non-recurring or non-cash charges and exploration expense. ***Cash and equivalents minus short- and long-term debt. ****Forecasts based on 2019 reserves 2P production profile.


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Canacol Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Canacol Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Canacol Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Canacol Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Consumer

Gamesys Group — Ahead of recent guidance

Gamesys Group’s FY20 results are ahead of expectations, rounding off a year of persistent upgrades. There was strong revenue growth in most geographies driven by organic growth and new product launches. The company continues to demonstrate strong cash conversion, leading to a significant improvement in the year-end financial position, which helped to fund a better than expected final dividend. FY21 has had a ‘very good start’ but we note that comparatives become more difficult as we move into Q221 following the COVID-19 pandemic. We have increased our EBITDA forecasts for FY21 and FY22 by 1–2%. On our new forecasts, the FY21 free cash flow (FCF) yield is 10.1% and the dividend yield is 2.9%.

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