Financials: Strongly cash generative
Park reported its interim results for the six months ending 30 September 2017 in late November. Because of the highly seasonal nature of Park’s business, in our opinion these are best viewed as a guide to underlying business trends and direction, particularly in orders. We have covered the trends within the consumer and corporate businesses in the section above but note that they reveal the extent of the seasonality. More than 75% of sales, and all of the profits, are generated in the second half of the year, which includes the important Christmas trading period. The first half is significant in building the order book, but is traditionally loss making. Digitalisation of the business and changes in customer behaviour have seen the share of total annual sales (defined as billings) generated in H1 increase steadily, from less than c 15% in FY13 to more than 24% (we forecast 24.4% in the current year), while the seasonal H1 pre-tax loss has also trended down over time. However, the extent of remaining seasonality in the business continues to create volatility in first-half reported earnings and cash flow. H118 was no exception, with the normal seasonal pre-tax loss increasing to £1.6m (H117: £0.8m), although still well down on the £3.0m reported in H113.
Exhibit 10: The seasonality of sales*
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Source: Park Group, Edison Investment Research. *Note: Sales defined as billings.
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In brief, the group highlights from H118 were:
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Billings increased by 7.3% compared with H117, up 7.7% in corporate and 6.3% in consumer. Consumer billings growth was ahead of order growth (c 4%), which reflects accelerated shipments of Christmas orders, a timing issue between H1 and H2.
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Accounting revenues (+3.1%) grew at a slower pace than billings, reflecting an increasing share of prepaid cards in the mix of billings and the differing accounting treatment of the two, explained in detail on page 11. In aggregate, across both the consumer and corporate businesses, voucher billings were c 4% lower y-o-y, while card billings were c 17% higher, limiting revenue growth and deferring gross profit recognition into H2.
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The seasonal pre-tax loss increased in H118 compared with H117, to £1.6m compared with £0.8m, which management attributes mostly to the disproportionate impact on H1 profits of the continued growth in the business, and the costs to support that growth, in relation to the revenues reported in H1. Administrative costs (as reported by the company, including depreciation, amortisation and share-based payments) were 14.5% up in H1 compared with our forecast of 8.0% for the year as a whole. We expect the timing issues that affected H1, both revenue and costs, to rebalance by year-end.
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Total cash balances at end-H118 were at a similar level to end-H117 (£199.6m v £198.7m) and, substantially reflecting seasonality, were significantly ahead of end-FY17. However, the split between the shareholder cash balance and customer cash held in trust was noticeably different this year, with the shareholder cash balance declining to £5.4m. Similar to the reported earnings position, the shareholder cash position reflects a number significant timing distortions that we expect to unwind by year-end. Earlier customer deliveries brought forward stock purchases into H1. The increase in segregated cash balances included an impact from a higher share of cards in billings, deferring revenue recognition and cash flow until H2, and a slower release of cash from the Christmas savings trust. The latter largely reflects a desire to optimise treasury yields and can be seen in the c 12% growth in Christmas savings trust balances compared with the underlying c 4% order growth.
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Cash balances (including customer funds held in trust) continued to increase after the period end, peaking in November at a record £229m (FY17: £217m). Interest earnings are yet to benefit from the rise in interest rates at the very short end of the yield curve and were actually slightly lower in the period (£0.7m versus £0.8m) despite the increase in average cash balances.
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The interim dividend was increased by 5.3% to 1.0p per share
£000s |
H118 |
H117 |
FY17 |
Consumer |
(1,994) |
(1,349) |
6,460 |
Corporate |
1,048 |
1,095 |
7,231 |
Central & property costs |
(1,291) |
(1,331) |
(2,810) |
Operating profit/(loss) |
(2,237) |
(1,585) |
10,881 |
Interest income |
666 |
825 |
1,472 |
PBT |
(1,571) |
(760) |
12,353 |
Tax |
298 |
152 |
(2,452) |
Net profit |
(1,273) |
(608) |
9,901 |
Cash held in trust |
194,240 |
169,411 |
83,018 |
Shareholder cash balance (net of overdraft) |
5,392 |
29,259 |
31,359 |
Total cash positions |
199,632 |
198,670 |
114,377 |
No change to forecasts – timing impacts to unwind
We have made no material changes to our group forecast after the interim results, although within this we have slightly reduced our consumer business forecast with a corresponding uplift in corporate. The change was driven by a rebalancing of our billings forecast between the two. We do not yet incorporate the changes relating to the adoption of IFRS 15 applicable from FY19 (see section on page 11 re IFRS 15).
Forecasts for the consumer and corporate businesses are shown in detail in the sections above. At the group level and on the current basis of accounting, we are forecasting 7% billings growth for this year and next, and for similar growth in gross profit (gross margin on billings maintained at c 7.5%). Within this we look for card billings to continue to represent a larger share (growing c 35-40% pa) and limiting reported revenue growth (to c 2%), but continuing to lift gross profit as a share of revenues. Despite continuing investment, we look for operating profit to grow slightly faster than gross profit and for next year we anticipate some benefit to interest revenues from higher average cash balances.
Cash generation for dividends and investment with balance sheet strengthened
Park is a highly cash-generative business with no debt. Historically, Park’s operational cash flow has been allocated between strengthening the balance sheet, investment in growing the business (partly capitalised but also expensed) and funding the progressive dividend payments shown in Exhibit 3. Exhibit 12 shows how the balance sheet has developed and strengthened over the years, with the equity position moving from a substantial negative to positive, and with a substantial net current liability position all but closing. Other than a £4.2m (net) equity issue in FY14 to fund growth, this has all been achieved out of retained earnings and positive cash flow.
Although in a positive equity position since 2016, for many years it funded its growing business from working capital with the balance sheet reporting negative equity. The latter reflected historical goodwill and other write-offs from the early 2000s, related to an unsuccessful diversification effort before the current, focused growth strategy was adopted, and captured none of the goodwill value inherent in the continuing business. The business model is based on cash being received from customers upfront, in return for prepaid cards and vouchers, and then being paid out, less service fees (Park’s margin), to the redeemers that accept the vouchers and prepaid cards at their outlets.
Customer prepayments are segregated, substantially so in the case of Christmas savings in the voluntary Park Prepayment Protection Trust (PPPT) or, in the case of prepaid cards, fully segregated as required by the regulator (the FCA) within the e-money Trust. The PPPT was set up in 2007 in the wake of the Farepak collapse to provide reassurance to customers. The trust deed allowed Park, under the supervision of the trustees, to access some of the accumulated balances on a limited basis to meet operating costs and working capital needs in the business period. Management indicates that it no longer accesses these funds for working capital.
Exhibit 12: Summary balance sheet development
£000s |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
Current assets |
30,700 |
34,442 |
43,440 |
54,327 |
65,290 |
68,549 |
84,484 |
106,998 |
119,365 |
129,182 |
Current liabilities |
(68,234) |
(69,750) |
(78,520) |
(88,252) |
(94,658) |
(93,901) |
(100,848) |
(118,190) |
(124,808) |
(130,038) |
Net current assets/(liabilities) |
(37,534) |
(35,308) |
(35,080) |
(33,925) |
(29,368) |
(25,352) |
(16,364) |
(11,192) |
(5,443) |
(856) |
Shareholders’ equity |
(31,712) |
(28,546) |
(30,058) |
(20,120) |
(15,700) |
(11,328) |
(4,135) |
(167) |
6,425 |
12,425 |
Source: Park Group, Edison Investment Research
As noted above, we expect the timing impacts on H118 cash flow to unwind during H2. Our forecast shows end-FY18 shareholder cash (net of overdraft) at £32.6m (FY17: £31.4m). Park typically distributes a little more than 50% of earnings and, with substantial balance sheet strengthening behind it, we would expect future dividend policy to be driven primarily by the prospects for organic investment and/or external acquisition opportunities. However, this strong and growing cash balance needs to be seen in the context of the provision for outstanding vouchers and, although the dividend policy is progressive, we do not believe that investors should anticipate any substantial change in the payout ratio over the near term. The provision represents the cash that is expected to be paid to retailers over time in respect of vouchers that have been issued to customers but are yet to be redeemed at retailer outlets. There is also a smaller provision for corporately issued (rather than individually issued) cards where there is no right of redemption for unspent balances. This will not happen overnight and the size of the provision balance cash is, among other things, driven by ongoing voucher sales. However, over time, we expect prepaid cards to continue to take sales share from vouchers.
Cards versus vouchers and IFRS 15 update
The introduction of IFRS 15 will see accounting treatment for prepaid cards and vouchers, currently very different, converge. Park will report under IFRS 15 for the first time in respect of the financial year ending 31 March 2019 and is likely to provide initial guidance on the impact with the current year (FY18) results in June 2018.
Currently, voucher revenue is recorded when the vouchers have been despatched to the customer, generating revenues that equal the amount paid by the customer for the voucher (typically the face value) and a gross profit margin that represents the service fees receivable from the retailers/redemption partners at the same time; a provision is made for the redemption liability arising. For cards, the revenue recognised is generally much lower, representing only the fees charged to cardholders and service fees receivable from retailers/redemption partners. There is also a timing difference, with card revenues and profits recognised later than similar voucher-based customer transactions. Where the cardholder has the right of redemption, revenue is recognised when amounts are deducted from values held on cards, ie when cards are redeemed at retailers/redemption partners or when charges are levied.
In short, card ‘sales’ to customers generate much lower reported revenues than vouchers, but are recorded as 100% gross profit margin, while profit recognition may be delayed. To provide greater clarity, the group reports the (non-statutory accounting) measure of billings. It represents the face value of voucher sales and the amount of value loaded onto prepaid cards, net of any discounts given to customers, and as such provides a consistent measure of customer sales activity in any period. The effect can be seen in the 4.9% pa compound growth in revenues in the three years to FY17 compared with 6.4% in billings, with the gross margin (on revenues) increasing from 8.3% to 9.7%.
Exhibit 13: Accounting treatment of vouchers versus prepaid cards (illustration)
£ |
Voucher |
Prepaid card |
Billings |
100 |
100 |
Revenue |
100 |
8 |
Cost of sales |
(92) |
0 |
Gross profit |
8 |
8 |
Gross margin on revenue |
8% |
100% |
Source: Park Group, Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 13 shows how £100 of billings generates very different accounting revenues depending on whether it is a voucher or prepaid card, although assuming all card balances are spent in the same accounting period as the voucher sale, the gross profit contribution is the same. However, in reality, it is unlikely that all card balances will be spent in the same accounting period, deferring gross profit (and a similar amount of revenue). As card balances grow, so too does the deferral. Accumulated, unspent customer card balances are held on balance sheet within the segregated e-Money Trust, a regulatory requirement. The balance as at H118 was £29.5m, representing almost £2.5m of deferred gross profit (and revenue) that will be reported in future accounting periods.
IFRS 15 will move the accounting treatment for Park’s own prepaid vouchers (54% of FY17 billings) onto the same basis as cards (26%), although the treatment of third-party vouchers, hampers and gifts (19%) will remain the same. The impacts are mitigated by the fact that a high proportion of the vouchers sold/billed in any year, particularly when Christmas related, are in fact redeemed in that same year, triggering an IFRS 15 revenue recognition. We have not yet incorporated these changes into our forecast. In broad terms, the impacts on the reported numbers are likely to be:
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Revenues recorded for own vouchers will show a material decline.
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Ultimate gross profit and cash flow will be unaffected but the reported group gross margin will increase materially towards the 100% that will be reported on cards and own vouchers (but not hampers and other goods or third-party vouchers).
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Revenue and profit recognition deferral will slightly reduce the reported numbers in period one and the deferral of previously recognised profits will reduce equity.