Intelligent Energy Holdings — Update 1 December 2016

Intelligent Energy Holdings — Update 1 December 2016

Intelligent Energy Holdings

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Intelligent Energy Holding

GTL transaction not going ahead

Company update

Alternative energy

1 December 2016

Price

9.75p

Market cap

£20m

Net debt* (£m) at end September 2016

*Convertible loan notes treated as £30.0m debt

9.4

Shares in issue

206.2m

Free float

79.4%

Code

IEH

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(20.4)

22.6

(89.0)

Rel (local)

(18.8)

22.8

(89.6)

52-week high/low

82.0p

7.1p

Business description

Intelligent Energy Holdings delivers clean energy solutions for the distributed energy, diesel replacement, automotive and aerial drone markets. Working with international companies, the company aims to embed its fuel cell stack technology into applications across its target market sectors.

Next events

AGM

March 2017

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Roger Johnston

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Intelligent Energy Holding is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA**
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E

(x)

09/14

13.6

(52.4)

(58.0)

(30.4)

0.0

N/A

09/15

78.2

(46.2)

(51.8)

(21.4)

0.0

N/A

09/16

91.8***

(33.4)

(42.8)

(20.2)

0.0

N/A

09/17e

27.5

(12.0)

(20.5)

(8.5)

0.0

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Adjusted as per company presentation.
***Including £85.1m revenues from power management activity

Investment case intact

IEH became involved in providing power management services in India with the intention of creating a captive market in the telecoms tower back-up power segment for its air-cooled cells. Since the transaction with GTL will not go ahead, IEH will not be able to dictate the rate at which diesel generators in the GTL tower portfolio are replaced with fuel cells. However, over the last year IEH has demonstrated that its fuel cells work well for both primary and back-up power deployment at telecoms tower sites in India, so the potential to sell fuel cells to tower operators in India and elsewhere, and for other diesel generator replacement applications remains.

Estimates adjustment confined to revenue line

Our estimates had already assumed that IEH would either terminate the interim agreement with GTL at the end of December 2016 or move to a long-term arrangement in which the power management activity became a separate entity in which IEH held a minority stake. As the interim agreement was terminated at the end of November, we reduce our FY17e revenue estimate by £6.5m to £27.5m. Since the interim agreement was at minimal gross margin and we treated any share of profit from a potential power management JV as upside, the rest of our estimates are unaffected. Any costs associated with restructuring the power management activity will be treated as exceptionals.

Valuation: Product sales to drive re-rating

The valuation analysis described in our November note was based on revenues from sales of fuel cell-based products and funded development work on air cooled technology, so is not affected by the termination of the power management activity. The analysis indicated that IEH was trading on a prospective EV/sales multiples that is towards the lower end of the range of its peers. We believe the successful execution of the revised strategy, resulting in meaningful product sales during FY17e, will be a key catalyst for future share price performance.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

Year end 30 September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

20.8

13.6

78.2

91.8

27.5

Cost of Sales

(13.5)

(9.9)

(75.9)

(90.0)

(26.0)

Gross Profit

7.3

3.7

2.3

1.8

1.5

EBITDA

 

 

(23.4)

(52.4)

(46.2)

(33.4)

(12.0)

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

(26.7)

(46.0)

(51.2)

(38.1)

(16.6)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

(7.1)

(0.3)

(21.6)

(0.5)

Share based payments

(0.0)

(2.6)

(2.3)

(0.2)

0.0

Operating Profit

(26.7)

(55.6)

(53.8)

(59.9)

(17.1)

Net Interest

(0.5)

(4.0)

(1.3)

(2.7)

(3.9)

Share of losses from JVs and exceptionals

(2.5)

0.0

0.7

(2.0)

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(29.7)

(58.0)

(51.8)

(42.8)

(20.5)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(29.8)

(59.6)

(54.4)

(64.6)

(21.0)

Tax

8.8

11.4

11.6

(18.1)

3.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(20.9)

(46.6)

(40.2)

(39.0)

(17.5)

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

(21.0)

(48.2)

(42.8)

(82.7)

(18.0)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

134.4

153.4

188.2

193.3

206.2

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(15.6)

(30.4)

(21.4)

(20.2)

(8.5)

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

(15.6)

(30.4)

(21.4)

(13.5)

(2.3)

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

(15.6)

(31.4)

(22.7)

(42.8)

(8.7)

Dividend per share (p)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

35.3

27.4

2.9

2.0

5.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

27.7

37.9

59.8

10.7

8.5

Intangible Assets

13.3

14.7

29.4

7.9

6.8

Tangible Assets

5.3

6.9

8.5

2.8

1.7

Deferred tax assets

9.2

16.3

21.9

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

46.4

107.5

45.2

33.0

18.4

Stocks

1.5

4.1

5.3

1.6

1.6

Debtors

9.8

11.1

11.5

7.8

9.1

Cash and short-term deposits

31.6

88.9

24.2

20.6

4.7

Current tax assets

3.5

3.4

4.2

3.0

3.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(8.6)

(17.6)

(14.3)

(8.7)

(9.8)

Creditors

(8.6)

(17.6)

(14.3)

(8.4)

(9.5)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.3)

(0.3)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(21.1)

0.0

(3.0)

(22.8)

(22.8)

Long term borrowings

(18.5)

0.0

0.0

(21.0)*

(21.0)*

Other long term liabilities

(2.6)

0.0

(3.0)

(1.8)

(1.8)

Net Assets

 

 

44.4

127.8

87.7

12.2

(5.8)

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(23.4)

(50.6)

(51.5)

(31.4)

(12.7)

Net Interest

(0.0)

0.3

0.1

(1.1)

(3.9)

Tax

3.3

3.8

4.8

5.1

3.0

Capex

(5.0)

(6.8)

(19.4)

(3.8)

(2.4)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

1.1

1.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

1.5

108.4

0.2

1.1

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Forex/Other

0.0

(0.0)

0.1

0.1

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(23.6)

56.1

(64.7)

(30.0)

(16.0)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

29.9

(13.1)

(88.9)

(24.2)

0.7

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

66.5

19.7

0.0

5.1

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13.1)

(88.9)

(24.2)

0.7

16.7

Source: Intelligent Energy Holding, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Including £20.7m liability of convertible loan notes.

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Intelligent Energy Holding and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Intelligent Energy Holding and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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