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Ensurge Micropower — Introducing twin go-to-market strategy

Ensurge Micropower (OSE: ENSU)

Last close As at 04/11/2024

NOK0.30

— 0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

814m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Ensurge Micropower — Introducing twin go-to-market strategy

Ensurge Micropower’s CEO took the opportunity in the recent H122 results presentation to brief investors on its engagement with four strategic partners. These large multinationals could potentially license Ensurge’s microbattery technology, become JV partners or provide investment via equity or non-recurring engineering (NRE) fees. The move creates an additional route to market, which complements sales of complete microbatteries.

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

TMT

Ensurge Micropower

Introducing twin go-to-market strategy

Tech hardware and equipment

Spotlight - Update

31 August 2022

Price

NOK3.39

Market cap

NOK752m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

ENSU

Listing

OSLO & OTCQB

Shares in issue

221.7m

Last reported net debt ($m) at 30 June 2022 (excluding $1.6m restricted cash and $11.6m finance leases)

3.6

Business description

Ensurge Micropower’s solid-state lithium battery technology combines advanced energy cell design with proprietary materials and manufacturing innovation to produce thin, flexible batteries that can power safer and more capable wearable devices and connected sensors.

Bull

■

The high-energy density, flexible form factor, enhanced cycling and improved safety features of solid-state batteries are highly suitable for the hearables and medical wearables markets.

■

Markets for microbatteries already established.

■

When fully equipped, Ensurge’s volume manufacturing facility will be able to generate c $100m EBITDA.

Bear

■

Ensurge has yet to generate meaningful revenues from microbattery sales.

■

Revenue growth dependent on companies incorporating microbatteries in their products.

■

Management has identified a probable funding gap in Q422.

Analyst

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Ensurge Micropower is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Ensurge Micropower’s CEO took the opportunity in the recent H122 results presentation to brief investors on its engagement with four strategic partners. These large multinationals could potentially license Ensurge’s microbattery technology, become JV partners or provide investment via equity or non-recurring engineering (NRE) fees. The move creates an additional route to market, which complements sales of complete microbatteries.

Historical financials

Year
end

Revenue
($m)

EBITDA
($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18**

3.4

(49.3)

(54.3)

(0.93)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/19**

1.2

(30.6)

(35.9)

(0.61)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/20

0.5**

(11.3)

(14.9)

(0.04)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/21

0.0

(14.6)

(17.2)

(0.01)

0.00

N/A

N/A

Source: Company accounts. Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptionals and share-based payments. **Discontinued business.

Losses widen as company prepares for production

Ensurge did not generate any revenues during H122. Payroll costs were $1.0m higher year-on-year at $4.3m as management invested in engineering and manufacturing personnel, resulting in a widening of EBITDA losses, excluding share-based payments, by $1.1m to $8.1m. Investment in capital expenditure was only $0.3m as most of the work adapting the roll-to-roll (R2R) facility for volume manufacture of microbatteries was completed in FY21. All R&D activity was expensed. Free cash outflow totalled $11.9m.

Cash runway extended into Q422

In February 2022, Ensurge completed a private placement and share allocation at NOK5.4/share (after adjusting for a share consolidation), which raised $10.9m net and left it with $4.3m cash (gross excluding restricted cash) at end June 2022. In July, the company announced funding of NOK57m gross (US$5.7m), of which NOK46.7m was from convertible loans bearing 5% interest with a conversion price of NOK3.00/share and NOK10.3m from a private placement at NOK3.00/share. Management notes that Ensurge has sufficient funds to support operations into Q422 and is seeking alternative sources of financing to continue operations beyond that.

Valuation: Potential market of over 1bn units a year

Ensurge is initially targeting the medical wearables and hearables markets, followed by the connected sensor and sport & fitness wearables markets. Our scenario analysis calculates that a 5–10% share of these markets represents annual revenues of $330–550m and EBITDA of $211–365m. Management has stated that when the R2R factory in San Jose is fully utilised it could potentially generate EBITDA of more than $100m, depending on product mix.

Engagement with strategic partners

Complementary route for commercialising technology

Ensurge is in active discussions with four large multinational corporations with which it is exploring a range of possible options including licensing Ensurge’s technology, the formation of joint ventures and investment in the form of equity and/or non-recurring engineering fees. The companies interested in these strategic partnerships are involved in consumer devices, electronic components and batteries. They are currently more interested in Ensurge’s core microbattery building block, referred to as the ‘unit cell’, than stacks of cells packaged to create complete microbatteries (see our June update for more detail on the individual steps in battery manufacture). This is because each of the potential strategic partners has technology that could be combined with Ensurge’s core cell technology to create solutions enabling applications yet to exist which expand the market beyond the one-billion-unit market discussed below. Ensurge will provide these four partners with the unit cells in a conventional coin cell format to ease testing and evaluation. It is completing the manufacturing of these unit cell samples now and expects to ship them in early September.

Ensurge has recently signed its first agreement with a strategic partner who is a large multinational consumer devices leader. Management expects the partnership discussions to proceed further once the partners have completed their evaluation of the unit cells. We note that there is a pipeline of several other potential strategic investors.

Growing pipeline of microbattery customers

Five customers already signed up

Ensurge has already signed agreements with five customers. These include a Fortune 500 industrial company active in manufacturing capital equipment, a customer in the digital health market, two agreements in the medical hearables market and one in the broader wearables market. These customers are interested in complete microbatteries in the 1-100 mAh range which can provide faster charging or higher energy density than conventional rechargeable microbatteries, can be mounted on customers’ circuit boards using conventional reflow assembly techniques (unlike typical lithium-ion coin cell batteries) or can be customised to create novel form factors such as rings. These form factors are only achievable with batteries formed on a flexible substrate such as the ultra-thin steel substrate used by Ensurge. In addition to the five announced customers that have signed evaluation agreements, Ensurge has gained 12 new qualified leads during the last three months. As a result, Ensurge is now in commercial discussions with two dozen other companies in the hearables, wearables and Internet of Things (IoT) sectors.

While management has not provided an update on exactly when the company will ship evaluation samples to these customers, it still intends to do this during H222 and is preparing the manufacturing facility to start commercial production in late Q422. Its stated goal of starting to generate revenues from microbattery sales in Q422 may therefore, in our view, still be achievable.

We note that management expects that the initial revenues will be attributable to smaller companies with faster development cycles where the flexibility of form factor offered by Ensurge’s microbattery technology is essential. The larger companies with longer development cycles are likely to introduce products incorporating Ensurge’s microbatteries in H223. In our view, this means that the strategic partner activity is likely to provide a faster option for permanently addressing the funding gap than volume ramp-up of microbatteries.

Improving unit cell performance

In our June update we observed that there are three key steps in producing customer samples: 1) successfully building individual battery cells that consistently meet targets for capacity and number of charge/discharge cycles, as well as charging more quickly than conventional lithium-ion battery cells; 2) confirming that the packaging technology provides an effective hermetic seal, preventing air and moisture from penetrating the battery and degrading the lithium cycling performance; and 3) successfully stacking and packaging individual cells into microbatteries that meet the initial target requirements. As of June, Ensurge had completed the first two steps. Since then it has achieved a key requirement to completing the third step and is now in the final stages of working on an engineered solution which will enable it to ship samples to customers with signed agreements.

Exhibit 1: Structure of Ensurge’s solid-state lithium battery (in use)

Source: Ensurge Micropower

Over the past quarter, Ensurge has improved the repeatability and consistency of its manufacturing process as part of a strong focus on manufacturing throughput and efficiency ahead of potentially commencing commercial production in late Q422. These improvements have enabled Ensurge to optimise the process conditions which determine the interactions at each of the key interfaces within a cell (see Exhibit 1) so that the individual reactions work efficiently and effectively together. As a result, the engineering team has lowered the impedance of a unit cell by orders of magnitude. The manufacturing improvements have also enabled the company to increase the quantity of unit cells manufactured, giving more data that helps fine-tune the manufacturing process. Importantly, this performance can be achieved using a roll-to-roll manufacturing process that does not require stringent environmental controls such as dry room conditions.

Valuation: Addressing a market of over 1bn units/year

Since Ensurge is still at the pre-revenue stage with regards to its solid-state battery technology, we continue to present a scenario analysis rather than a formal valuation based on peer multiples. Referencing research from IDTechEx and others, management notes that the medical wearables, hearables, connected sensor and sport & fitness wearables markets are predicted to grow to more than one billion units per year by 2025. This calculation was prior to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approving over-the-counter sales of hearing aids, thus addressing an underserved market which the agency estimates to be 30 million people with hearing impairments.

As discussed in our March note, these markets require batteries in the 1 mAh to 70 mAh capacity range. This capacity range is already covered by conventional lithium-ion batteries, although the relative size of lithium-ion batteries compared to solid-state batteries makes it likely that a material percentage of device manufactures will elect to pay a premium for the solid-state option. Ensurge has had detailed conversations with potential customers with which it has shared design details and in H121 stated that it believed a price of $3–10/unit was achievable.

Exhibit 2: Potential annual revenues from milliwatt hour market ($m)

Market share (%)

1%

3%

5%

7%

10%

Price/unit
($)

1

11

33

55

77

110

2

22

66

110

154

220

3

33

99

165

231

330

5

55

165

275

385

550

7

77

231

385

539

770

10

110

330

550

770

1,100

Source: Edison Investment Research

Our scenario analysis presents the annual revenues realisable from these markets for a range of unit prices and levels of market penetration. The analysis shows that a 5–10% share of these markets at a $3–10 price range represents annual revenues of $330–550m. Based on previous management guidance of c $20m fixed costs (current levels are $14.6m) and 30% variable costs, this gives an EBITDA range of $211–365m. Management notes that when the R2R factory in San Jose is fully utilised it should be able to output several hundred million mAh of batteries each year, potentially generating EBITDA of more than $100m depending on product mix.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

$m

2018*

2019*

2020

2021

Year-end December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

3.4

1.2

0.5*

0.0

EBITDA

 

 

(49.3)

(30.6)

(11.3)

(14.6)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(53.3)

(34.5)

(11.4)

(14.6)

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(15.6)

(42.4)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

(1.8)

(0.2)

(0.7)

(4.9)

Operating Profit

(70.6)

(77.1)

(12.0)

(19.6)

Net interest

(1.1)

(1.4)

(3.6)

(2.6)

Exceptional charges relating to issue of warrants

0.0

0.0

(23.2)

(8.8)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(54.3)

(35.9)

(14.9)

(17.2)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(71.7)

(78.5)

(38.8)

(31.0)

Tax

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(54.4)

(35.9)

(14.9)

(17.2)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(71.7)

(78.4)

(38.8)

(31.0)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

58.6

58.6

393.2

1,368.3

EPS - normalised ($)

 

 

(0.93)

(0.61)

(0.04)

(0.01)

EPS - (IFRS) ($)

 

 

(1.22)

(1.34)

(0.10)

(0.02)

Dividend per share ($)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

35.3

0.6

0.8

2.6

Intangible Assets

2.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tangible Assets

22.5

0.0

0.2

2.0

Other

10.4

0.6

0.6

0.6

Current Assets

 

 

44.1

11.7

6.9

8.7

Stocks

2.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

8.9

2.8

1.1

1.8

Cash excluding restricted cash

31.0

7.3

4.2

5.3

Restricted cash

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

Current Liabilities

 

 

(8.1)

(6.8)

(32.7)

(8.0)

Creditors

(8.1)

(5.5)

(29.5)

(4.1)

Short term borrowings

0.0

(1.4)

(3.2)

(3.9)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(11.5)

(25.1)

(21.9)

(16.8)

Long term borrowings excluding finance leases

0.0

(11.8)

(9.7)

(5.9)

Other long-term liabilities

(11.5)

(13.2)

(12.2)

(10.9)

Net Assets

 

 

59.7

(19.7)

(46.9)

(13.4)

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(52.3)

(29.1)

(11.9)

(14.6)

Net Interest

0.3

(1.4)

(3.2)

(3.2)

Tax

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Capex

(11.2)

(5.1)

(0.3)

(1.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

(0.0)

0.0

13.3

25.2

Dividend payments and Other items

(1.6)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(64.9)

(35.5)

(2.1)

5.6

Opening net debt/(cash) excluding finance leases and restricted cash

 

(96.5)

(31.0)

5.9

8.8

Finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(0.6)

(1.4)

(0.7)

(1.3)

Closing net debt/(cash) excluding finance leases and restricted cash

 

(31.0)

5.9

8.8

4.5

Source: Company reports. Note: *Discontinued business.


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ensurge Micropower and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ensurge Micropower. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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Germany

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Ensurge Micropower and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Ensurge Micropower. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Diurnal Group — Proposed acquisition by Neurocrine Biosciences

Diurnal has announced that it has agreed to an acquisition by Neurocrine Biosciences (US-based biopharmaceutical player) for a cash consideration of £48.3m or 27.5p per share. The proposed acquisition consideration is a c 144% premium to the closing price of 11.25p on 26 August. Although the acquisition is subject to shareholder approval by both companies, the transaction is likely to close by late October or early November. Neurocrine is also focused on the endocrine space (in addition to neurology) and anticipates synergies from the combination of the two businesses. It intends to continue pursuing Diurnal’s current R&D programmes in the UK and maintaining existing business operations. At the time of publication, Diurnal’s shares are trading c 130% higher than at close on the day before the announcement.

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