ArborGen Holdings — Key US market unaffected by COVID-19 thus far

ArborGen Holdings (NZX: ARB)

Last close As at 22/11/2024

NZD0.14

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

NZD77m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

ArborGen Holdings — Key US market unaffected by COVID-19 thus far

ArborGen’s US sales appear to have fared well in H220 as management has reaffirmed guidance for FY20. While we are aware of COVID-19 risks – which will continue to be monitored – the seasonal H2 bias to dominant US sales along with current customer planting intentions suggest no reason to change the FY21 outlook for now. Consequently, our estimates are unchanged and show good year-on-year progress for both FY20 and FY21, generating low earnings multiples at the current share price.

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Industrials

ArborGen Holdings

Key US market unaffected by COVID-19 so far

Year-end and

COVID-19 update

Basic materials

16 April 2020

Price

NZ$0.17

Market cap

NZ$85m

NZ$/US$0.61

Net debt (US$m) at 30 September 2019

31.6

Shares in issue

499.9m

Free float

53%

Code

ARB

Primary exchange

NZX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(2.9)

(14.1)

(14.1)

Rel (local)

(8.1)

(2.8)

(16.1)

52-week high/low

NZ$0.20

NZ$0.14

Business description

ArborGen is an NZX-listed investment company and is the world’s largest integrated developer, commercial manufacturer and supplier of advanced forestry seedlings with operations in the US, Brazil and Australasia.

Next events

FY20 results

TBC

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

ArborGen Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

ArborGen’s US sales appear to have fared well in H220 as management has reaffirmed guidance for FY20. While we are aware of COVID-19 risks – which will continue to be monitored – the seasonal H2 bias to dominant US sales along with current customer planting intentions suggest no reason to change the FY21 outlook for now. Consequently, our estimates are unchanged and show good year-on-year progress for both FY20 and FY21, generating low earnings multiples at the current share price.

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

EBITDA** (US$m)

PBT*
(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA**
(x)

03/19

49.1

4.6

4.7

1.1

10.1

13.3

03/20e

58.2

7.7

7.1

1.5

7.1

10.3

03/21e

64.4

10.1

9.5

1.9

5.6

7.7

03/22e

71.7

12.5

12.2

2.4

4.4

5.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. No tax charge is anticipated in our estimates. **US GAAP.

Limited COVID-19 impact on FY20 and outlook so far

A year-end trading update refined guidance for FY20 pre-central cost US GAAP EBITDA to ‘at least 40% higher’ than last year’s US$6.1m. The minimum implied US$8.6m compares to our existing US$9.2m, so a difference of US$0.6m or less at this level, subject to final audit. Our group EBITDA estimate of US$7.7m in the above table is after US$1.5m central costs; the reported H120 equivalent was a US$4m loss and the swing to full-year profitability provides a clear sense of both the (H2 FY) seasonality of the US seedling lifting/planting season and the scale importance of this geographic region. There was clearly no material COVID-19 impact on the FY20 outturn. Current indications are that customers are committed to their 2020/21 planting programmes. ArborGen has already implemented appropriate COVID-19 working practices across its sites, all of which are continuing to operate, and is taking a prudent stance on discretionary cost and capex items.

Planting rates in Brazil – which has a more evenly spread seedling selling season – are said to have slowed moderately for now to accommodate revised COVID-19 working practices. Separately, a third eucalyptus nursery lease has been taken on, this time in Mato Grosso du Sul state to take internal annual eucalyptus seedling production capacity up to in excess of 30m at full run rate (total network capacity including pine seedlings is c 100m). Previous company comments that New Zealand nursery operations were continuing to cultivate seedlings for FY21 sale (and operate quarantine services) but also complying with national government lockdown guidance remain valid.

Valuation: Financial headroom and low multiples

No comment was made on the group core net debt position; our unchanged model anticipates a c US$28m position at the end of FY20 (versus US$31.6m at the H120 stage) and, as our previous note pointed out, the company has facilities in place with funding capacity in excess of US$40m. On unchanged estimates, ArborGen’s share price generates mid-single digit P/E multiples with EV/EBITDA (US GAAP) declining from 10.3x for FY20 to 5.9x by FY22 based on our model.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

US$m

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

2022e

Year end 31 March (from 2018 onwards)

6m to March

IFRS 16

IFRS 16

IFRS 16

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

35.4

49.1

58.2

64.4

71.7

Cost of Sales

 

 

(19.4)

(30.3)

(36.2)

(40.1)

(44.5)

Gross Profit

 

 

16.0

18.8

22.0

24.3

27.2

EBITDA - US GAAP

 

 

6.0

4.6

7.7

10.1

12.5

EBITDA - NZ IFRS

 

 

6.2

9.8

12.2

14.8

17.3

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

 

 

5.0

6.9

9.2

11.8

14.3

Intangible Amortisation - acquired

 

 

(2.6)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(5.8)

Exceptionals

 

 

(1.4)

(3.6)

(2.8)

0.0

0.0

Associate

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

 

 

1.0

(2.5)

0.6

6.0

8.5

Net Interest

 

 

(1.4)

(2.2)

(2.2)

(2.3)

(2.2)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

3.6

4.7

7.1

9.5

12.2

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

(0.4)

(4.7)

(1.5)

3.7

6.4

Tax

 

 

2.6

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.0

Minorities

 

 

0

0

(0)

0

0

Discontinued

 

 

0

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

6

5.2

7.5

9.5

12.2

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

2

(4.2)

(1.1)

3.7

6.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

 

487.9

496.9

499.3

499.9

499.9

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.9

2.4

EPS - statutory (c)

 

 

0.5

(0.8)

(0.2)

0.7

1.3

Dividend per share (c)

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

45.2

38.4

37.8

37.8

37.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

17.5

20.0

21.0

23.0

24.2

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

 

 

14.1

14.1

15.9

18.3

20.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

156.0

152.3

154.2

150.0

145.9

Intangible Assets

 

 

106.7

105.6

104.0

102.6

101.3

Tangible Assets

 

 

43.3

42.7

48.2

45.4

42.6

Investments

 

 

6.0

4.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Current Assets

 

 

57.8

41.7

49.1

54.6

61.0

Stocks

 

 

24.8

29.4

33.2

37.7

42.9

Debtors

 

 

10.0

9.1

10.5

11.5

12.6

Cash

 

 

23.0

3.2

5.4

5.4

5.4

Current Liabilities

 

 

(36.2)

(15.8)

(27.6)

(26.3)

(23.3)

Creditors

 

 

(20.4)

(15.0)

(16.3)

(17.2)

(18.2)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(15.8)

(0.8)

(11.3)

(9.1)

(5.1)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(26.2)

(30.6)

(30.3)

(29.2)

(28.1)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(22.8)

(16.5)

(23.9)

(23.9)

(23.9)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(3.4)

(14.1)

(6.4)

(5.3)

(4.2)

Net Assets

 

 

151.4

147.6

145.4

149.1

155.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

3.5

4.1

6.1

10.9

12.8

Net Interest

 

 

(1.4)

(2.1)

(2.2)

(2.3)

(2.2)

Tax

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

 

 

(3.0)

(6.6)

(20.4)

(5.4)

(5.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

0.9

(7.6)

0

0

0

Financing

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Dividends

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

 

 

0

(12.2)

(16.4)

3.3

5.1

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

33.0

9.6

9.8

27.8

25.6

HP finance leases initiated

 

 

0

0

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

Other

 

 

23.4

0

(0.4)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

9.6

21.8

27.8

25.6

21.6

Source: ArborGen, Edison Investment Research. Note: 2017R was restated to show discontinued operations separately. Significant other items in 2017R and 2018 cash flow relate to M&A activity associated with the disposed Tenon operations. **FY20 opening net debt has been restated to exclude IFRS 16 leases (which are now shown at projected year ends); the group’s purchase of its US head office property in August 2019 moved this from a leased asset to an owned one.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by ArborGen Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by ArborGen Holdings. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

More on ArborGen Holdings

View All

Latest from the Industrials sector

View All Industrials content

Research: Real Estate

Custodian REIT — Q4 DPS confirmed

Custodian REIT has provided an update on the impact of COVID-19 and its response to the near-term challenges this poses. In line with its strong income focus and supported by moderate gearing and a liquid balance sheet, the company has confirmed payment of the Q420 DPS and has guided to the minimum DPS that it intends to pay through H121.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free