LER has a proactive strategy to sponsor projects most appropriate for its Glycell technology and is engaging with potential business partners. It is the low cost of the cellulosic sugar derived from biomass using Glycell that creates the high margin for a high-value renewable chemical project. By demonstrating the benefits of Glycell, LER will seek to negotiate free carry interests in projects.
We have modelled a biomass to renewable chemical project that converts advantaged biomass to a standard renewable chemical with mainstream applications. Indicative valuations were provided earlier in the report in Exhibit 1, accompanied by the key valuation assumptions used.
In Exhibit 2, we tabulate a range of indicative valuations for LER, in A$/share, for the value of a free carried interest in an individual project. We vary the renewable chemical price from US$1,200/t to US$1,800/t and the free carried interest from 5% to 15%.
Exhibit 2: Indicative valuations (A$/share) for a free carried interest in a renewable chemical project
Renewable chemical price (US$/t) |
1,200.0 |
1,500.0 |
1,800.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
NPV10 (US$m) |
|
561.0 |
701.0 |
841.0 |
NPV10 (A$m) |
|
779.2 |
973.6 |
1,168.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
LER interest (A$m) |
|
|
|
|
Free carry @ 5% |
|
39.0 |
48.7 |
58.4 |
10% |
|
77.9 |
97.4 |
116.8 |
15% |
|
116.9 |
146.0 |
175.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
LER interest (A$/share) |
|
|
|
|
Free carry @ 5% |
|
0.29 |
0.37 |
0.44 |
10% |
|
0.58 |
0.73 |
0.88 |
15% |
|
0.88 |
1.10 |
1.31 |
|
|
|
|
|
Shares (m) |
133.3 |
|
A$/US$ |
0.72 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
LER is pursuing project opportunities in the US, Europe, Asia and Australia. In the US, the company is pursuing project scoping opportunities through a JV with ZeaChem, which has engineering expertise and a biorefinery. LER has also negotiated an MOU with the research and development arm of Monaghan Mushrooms, the second largest mushroom producer in the world, for a possible project in Europe. In Australia, LER has negotiated two MOUs, one with Norske Skog Australia and one with a large international agricultural company. For Asia, LER has conducted a joint evaluation with Andritz, a global supplier of plant, equipment and services for the pulp and paper and other industries, with positive results. This evaluation assessed the performance of Glycell on EFB, a readily available waste biomass product of the palm industry. The main sources of EFB generation are Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
In Exhibit 3, we provide an assessment of the potential range of LER valuations possible for between one and five projects proceeding over a range of 5-15% free carried interests. We have used a price of US$1,500/t for the renewable chemical produced. There are other permutations possible, but our assessment encapsulates a reasonable initial range.
Given the dramatic reduction in the cost of producing cellulosic sugar from biomass using Glycell and the potential for projects across many geographies, we believe there is potential for many more projects over time as the benefits of Glycell are demonstrated and the trend towards biochemicals accelerates.
Exhibit 3: Assessment of LER valuation range (A$/share) for different project numbers and free carry rates
No of projects |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Free carry @ 5% |
0.37 |
0.73 |
1.10 |
1.46 |
1.83 |
10% |
0.73 |
1.46 |
2.19 |
2.92 |
3.65 |
15% |
1.10 |
2.19 |
3.29 |
4.38 |
5.48 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
In our initiation report of 9 September 2015 Game-changer technology for bio-based products, we calculated NPV10 valuation ranges based on expected royalty streams and access fees over 10 years achieved by the Glycell technology. We assumed the achievement of a 5% global market share of carbohydrate equivalents (CHEQ) by year 10, assuming a CHEQ growth rate of 6.5% pa. Our core valuations were A$1.45/share (no co-products), A$4.95/share (including lignin co-products) and A$6.29/share (including lignin and glycerol co-products).
In that report, we stated that if Glycell technology is widely adopted the expansion of capacity using this technology could be at a more rapid rate and ‘lumpier’, which would lead to a higher valuation.
LER has proactively adopted a strategy of sponsoring projects that can use Glycell technology. It is creating opportunities for free carried interests in these projects in preference to the negotiation of less remunerative royalty streams. LER’s strategy may lead to the more rapid adoption of its Glycell technology and ultimately a higher valuation.
In some instances, such as the installation of Glycell technology in existing projects or large chemical complexes, it may be more practical to negotiate royalty and technology access fees.