Wheaton Precious Metals — London calling

Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)

Last close As at 04/11/2024

CAD90.93

−1.02 (−1.11%)

Market capitalisation

CAD41,715m

More on this equity

Research: Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals — London calling

On Monday, Wheaton (WPM) announced its intention to seek a listing of its shares on the main market of the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The company is not intending to raise any new capital and will be retaining its primary listing on the TSX and its dual listing on the NYSE. Nevertheless, the listing will bring one of the world’s largest dividend paying precious metal companies to the LSE by end-Q420 (subject to required regulatory approvals, including publication of a prospectus etc).

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Metals & Mining

Wheaton Precious Metals

London calling

London listing

Metals & mining

22 September 2020

Price

C$67.53

Market cap

C$30bn

C$1.3163/US$

Net debt (US$m) at 30 June 2020*

508.7

*Excluding US$3.8m lease liabilities.

Shares in issue

448.9m

Free float

100%

Code

WPM

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

NYSE

Share price performance

Business description

Wheaton Precious Metals is the world’s pre-eminent ostensibly precious metals streaming company, with 29 high-quality precious metals streaming and early deposit agreements relating to assets in Mexico, Peru, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Sweden, Greece, Portugal and the US.

Analyst

Charles Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

On Monday, Wheaton (WPM) announced its intention to seek a listing of its shares on the main market of the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The company is not intending to raise any new capital and will be retaining its primary listing on the TSX and its dual listing on the NYSE. Nevertheless, the listing will bring one of the world's largest dividend paying precious metal companies to the LSE by end-Q420 (subject to required regulatory approvals, including publication of a prospectus etc).

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

PBT*

(US$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

794.0

203.1

48

36

106.9

0.7

12/19

861.3

242.7

56

36

91.6

0.7

12/20e

1,161.8

549.6

120

45

42.8

0.9

12/21e

1,478.6

793.4

177

70

29.0

1.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

For WPM, listing in London will provide it with easy access to a large pool of capital. In an analysis performed earlier this year (see A golden future, published on 11 June 2020), Edison observed that precious metals companies listed in London have tended to outperform their peers, with 52% of London-listed companies outperforming the gold price over the period of the worst depredations of the coronavirus so far this year, compared with 39% globally. Over the same period, 68% of London-listed precious metals companies generated a positive total return for shareholders, compared with 54% globally. For London equally, WPM will provide premium-quality, geared exposure to precious metals prices and fill a void for investors left by the departure of Randgold Resources in December 2018 after it was acquired by Barrick. Yamana has similarly announced its intention to list in London and B2Gold and Endeavour have both said that such a move is under consideration.

As per our last note, under more normal circumstances, and assuming no future purchases of additional streams (which is unlikely), we would ordinarily forecast a value per share for WPM of US$52.05, or C$68.71 in FY21. However, given its peers’ premium valuations as well as the accommodative precious metals investing environment (see Barely missing a beat, published on 18 August 2020), we believe that WPM is capable of supporting a valuation that could easily rise to as high as US$74.10 or C$97.81 per share as both earnings expectations and multiples have expanded. In the meantime, WPM’s shares are trading on near-term financial ratios that are cheaper than those of its royalty/streaming ‘peers’ in at least 67% of common financial measures (P/E, yield and P/CF over two years for four peers), if Edison forecasts are used, and 50% of the same valuation measures if consensus forecasts are used (source: Refinitiv 21 September 2020). Among other things, this could be indicative of the market having more conservative precious metal pricing expectations than Edison. Even after the profit taking and market shakeout on Monday however, the gold price is within 1.2% of our short-term price forecasts and still above our long-term ones, while the silver price is within 5.5% of our short-term price forecast of US$25.79/oz and the palladium price continues to trade above our short-term price forecast (note that these will be updated at the time of WPM’s Q320 results, anticipated in November).

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Wheaton Precious Metals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Wheaton Precious Metals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

More on Wheaton Precious Metals

View All

Latest from the Metals & Mining sector

View All Metals & Mining content

Research: Healthcare

Newron Pharmaceuticals — Evenamide trial progressing well

Newron has reported excellent, fast recruitment for the Phase II study of its novel schizophrenia drug, Evenamide, due to report in Q121. Newron notes that Phase III trials could start in Q221. It is progressing possible partnering deals on Evenamide. Discussions with Zambon on a Xadago dyskinesia study are moving forward. Newron had €39m cash at end June 2020 with cash well into 2022. Xadago royalties were up 14% at €2.5m vs €2.2m in H119. Our indicative value remains at CHF121m.

Continue Reading

Subscribe to Edison

Get access to the very latest content matched to your personal investment style.

Sign up for free