Encavis — Low-risk portfolio generates clean growth

Encavis — Low-risk portfolio generates clean growth

Encavis continued its growth in H1, with weather-adjusted EBITDA and EBIT up 17% y-o-y. FY19 guidance was increased again, mostly reflecting the positive impact of favourable weather conditions in H1. The company has a strong growth track record (c 35% EBITDA and EBIT CAGR 2018–19) and a large pipeline to drive future earnings progression and dividends growth. It offers a 3% dividend yield in FY19e, with growth prospects.

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Encavis

Low-risk portfolio generates clean growth

Industrials

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2 September 2019

Price

€8.52

Market cap

€1,120m

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Share details

Code

CAP

Listing

Prime Standard, SDAX

Shares in issue (H119)

131.5m

Business description

Encavis is a European independent power producer from renewable sources with >1.9GW installed capacity. More than 75% of the portfolio is solar, while the rest is from windfarms. Around 90% of the portfolio is based on a feed-in tariff. Encavis operates in 10 European countries. Four German families currently own 36% of the shares, while the free float is 64%.

Bull

Exposure to both solar and wind technologies.

Portfolio focused on fixed and long-term feed-in tariffs or power purchase agreements, limiting earnings volatility.

Recent drop in solar and wind installation costs and rise in CO2 prices improve economics of renewable projects.

Bear

Strong competition puts pressure on renewable project returns.

Exposed to acquisition risks.

Yield attractive in current low interest rate environment, less so assuming normalisation in the long term (although unlikely for several years).

Analyst

Dario Carradori

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Encavis continued its growth in H1, with weather-adjusted EBITDA and EBIT up 17% y-o-y. FY19 guidance was increased again, mostly reflecting the positive impact of favourable weather conditions in H1. The company has a strong growth track record (c 35% EBITDA and EBIT CAGR 2018–19) and a large pipeline to drive future earnings progression and dividends growth. It offers a 3% dividend yield in FY19e, with growth prospects.

Low-risk portfolio and large growth pipeline

Encavis acquires ready-to-build, turnkey projects or existing wind and solar parks and operates them over their technical and commercial lifetime. The increasing geographical diversification of the portfolio improves earnings predictability and limits risks, while the focus on assets with fixed and long-term feed-in tariffs or power purchase agreements insulates the portfolio from cyclical wholesale price volatility. As of May 2019, Encavis had a three-year project pipeline of c 950MW, thanks to strategic partnerships in the UK (Solarcentury) and Ireland (Power Capital/Ireland Strategic Investment Fund) and including a 300MW solar PV project in Spain. The execution of this pipeline would boost installed capacity by 50%. The company sees renewable project returns ranging between more than 5% post-tax equity IRR in Germany and more than 8% in Iberia, Italy and the UK.

H1 results confirm strong growth track record

Encavis has experienced strong growth historically, reflecting the increased installed base, driving c 35% EBITDA and EBIT CAGR over the period 2014–18. Growth continued in H119 with EBITDA and EBIT growth of 17% y-o-y, on a weather-adjusted basis. Encavis increased its EBITDA guidance again for FY19 by 4% (it had already been raised at the H1 results), although this was mostly driven by the positive impact of favourable weather conditions in H1. FY19 EBITDA is now expected to be >€218m and EBIT >€132m. We expect consensus earnings estimates, currently lower, to catch up with the new guidance. Net debt/EBITDA of c 6.0x at H119 (based on the company’s FY19 EBITDA target) is slightly higher than renewable peers (c 5x).

Valuation: 3% yield with growth

Based on company targets, we calculate that the stock trades on c 11x FY19e EV/EBITDA, at a small premium to listed renewable and yield stocks (c 10x). The company expects dividends to grow, reflecting the increase in profit and cash flow, with a yield of 3.0% in FY19e (broadly in line with peers) growing to 3.6% in FY21. Consensus estimates for dividends appear to be consistent with company targets.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

EBIT
(€m)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

222.4

166.8

100.4

0.22

29.4

2.6

12/18

248.8

186.9

113.7

0.24

27.5

2.8

12/19e

254.7

203.2

112.6

0.26

20.4

3.0

12/20e

269.3

210.7

121.5

0.28

22.1

3.3

Source: Company data, Refinitiv

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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