Marshall Motor Holdings — Major strengthening of Skoda representation

Marshall Motor Holdings (LN: MMH)

Last close As at 26/12/2024

394.00

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

308m

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Research: Industrials

Marshall Motor Holdings — Major strengthening of Skoda representation

Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) has acquired six additional Skoda sites since the start of 2019, underlining its ability to take advantage of opportunities despite a challenging market environment. The lossmaking sites were bought for an aggregate £3.5m and are expected to dilute earnings by just under 2% in 2019 while adding c £60m in annual sales. The businesses should break even in FY20 as MMH more than doubles it exposure to the growing brand in the UK. MMH reports FY18 results on 13 March, when we will further assess the outlook. The current FY19e P/E of 6.4x gives little credit for the performance being achieved in challenging markets and is supported by a healthy dividend yield of over 4%.

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Industrials

Marshall Motor Holdings

Major strengthening of Skoda representation

Acquisition of Skoda sites

Automotive retail

4 March 2019

Price

158p

Market cap

£123m

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2018

0.9

Shares in issue

77.9m

Free float

34.9%

Code

MMH

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(2.5)

1.3

0.3

Rel (local)

(3.9)

0.0

1.4

52-week high/low

175.5p

122.5p

Business description

Marshall Motor is the seventh largest UK motor retailer, operating 106 franchises spread across 23 brands at 89 locations. It is one of six UK dealership groups that represent each of the top five volume and premium brands. The group has a strong presence in eastern and southern England.

Next events

FY18 results

13 March 2018

Analyst

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Marshall Motor Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) has acquired six additional Skoda sites since the start of 2019, underlining its ability to take advantage of opportunities despite a challenging market environment. The lossmaking sites were bought for an aggregate £3.5m and are expected to dilute earnings by just under 2% in 2019 while adding c £60m in annual sales. The businesses should break even in FY20 as MMH more than doubles it exposure to the growing brand in the UK. MMH reports FY18 results on 13 March, when we will further assess the outlook. The current FY19e P/E of 6.4x gives little credit for the performance being achieved in challenging markets and is supported by a healthy dividend yield of over 4%.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

1,899.4

25.4

26.2

5.50

6.0

3.5

12/17

2,268.9

29.1

30.8

6.40

5.1

4.0

12/18e

2,207.8

25.7

26.3

6.75

6.0

4.3

12/19e

2,323.7

24.3

24.9

6.95

6.4

4.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Acquisitions strengthen Skoda presence

With the support of Skoda UK, MMH has acquired six new Skoda dealerships in early 2019. Nottingham and Leicester were purchased from Sandicliffe Limited on 31 January and Bedford, Harlow, Letchworth and Northampton were acquired from Progress Bedford Ltd on 28 February 2019. The aggregate cost was £3.5m and the business lost a combined £0.4m in 2018 on sales thought to be around £60m. The sites add to and complement MMH’s existing Skoda portfolio of five sites, making MMH Skoda’s largest UK retailer. The Skoda brand has been growing in the UK new car market, with an FY18 market share of 3.2%. New model introductions in the current year should further strengthen the brand. Together with access to parent Volkswagen’s €44bn investment in the next generation of electromobility vehicles this should prove beneficial as the market transitions to cleaner technologies.

Returning to break even in FY20

We have reduced our FY19e PBT by £0.5m on a sales addition of around £50m, reducing EPS by 0.5p to 24.9p. However, we fully expect MMH to improve performance rapidly as it applies its established operational improvement processes. We expect the purchases to be break even in FY20. The balance sheet is expected to remain strong with a net cash position at the end of the current year. While UK new car registrations may be stabilising, conditions for 2019 remain challenging, compounded by Brexit uncertainty, even as H218 supply side disruption wanes, which may affect used car profitability.

Valuation: Rating discounts far worse

The shares have performed robustly in recent months, recovering to the 155–170p trading range seen for much of the last year. The large discount to both the market and general retailers appears to be discounting more risk than is currently apparent.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

1,899.4

2,268.9

2,207.8

2,323.7

Cost of Sales

(1,678.9)

(2,003.8)

(1,948.4)

(2,050.6)

Gross Profit

220.5

265.1

259.4

273.0

EBITDA

 

 

38.4

46.4

41.6

40.8

Operating Profit (before amort. and except).

 

 

32.3

37.2

32.7

31.8

Intangible Amortisation

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.5)

Exceptionals

(3.2)

24.1

0.9

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

28.8

60.9

33.2

31.4

Net Interest

(6.9)

(8.1)

(7.0)

(7.5)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

25.4

29.1

25.7

24.3

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

21.9

52.8

26.1

23.9

Tax

(4.4)

(3.8)

(5.6)

(5.1)

Profit After Tax (norm)

20.3

23.8

20.3

19.2

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

17.5

49.0

20.6

18.8

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

77.3

77.4

77.2

77.2

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

26.2

30.8

26.3

24.9

EPS (p)

 

 

25.4

29.8

25.5

24.1

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

22.6

63.4

26.7

24.3

Dividend per share (p)

5.50

6.40

6.75

6.95

Gross Margin (%)

11.6

11.7

11.8

11.8

EBITDA Margin (%)

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.8

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

326.4

266.6

283.5

294.7

Intangible Assets

122.0

121.6

121.7

125.2

Tangible Assets

204.4

145.0

161.8

169.4

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

475.2

499.1

468.0

498.4

Stocks

380.0

401.3

375.3

395.0

Debtors

71.0

64.1

61.8

65.1

Cash

0.1

4.9

2.9

8.9

Other

24.1

28.8

28.0

29.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(584.9)

(539.3)

(510.4)

(537.1)

Creditors

(507.2)

(538.6)

(510.4)

(537.1)

Short term borrowings

(77.7)

(0.6)

0.0

0.0

Long-term Liabilities

 

 

(71.1)

(35.2)

(35.0)

(36.0)

Long-term borrowings

(41.4)

(6.5)

(6.4)

(7.5)

Other long-term liabilities

(29.7)

(28.7)

(28.6)

(28.5)

Net Assets

 

 

145.7

191.2

206.1

220.0

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

98.9

60.8

37.7

36.8

Net Interest

(1.4)

(2.9)

(2.7)

(1.2)

Tax

(17.3)

(3.8)

(5.6)

(5.1)

Capex

(61.9)

(57.5)

(25.7)

(16.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

(91.4)

44.6

0.0

(3.5)

Financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(3.3)

(4.5)

(4.9)

(5.3)

Other

(15.5)

80.2

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(91.8)

116.8

(1.3)

4.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

27.2

119.0

2.2

3.5

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

119.0

2.2

3.5

(1.4)

Source: Marshall Motor Holdings reports, Edison Investment Research estimates

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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