Cranswick — Making gains in a competitive space

Cranswick — Making gains in a competitive space

Cranswick has posted yet another year of strong growth. The business is witnessing growth in all its categories and strong innovation is keeping its offering relevant and desirable. Management has guided towards significant capex investment in 2017 to continue increasing capacity to match its growth prospects.

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Cranswick

Strong growth continues in H1

Consumer

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1 December 2017

Price

3,219p

Market cap

£1.64bn

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Share details

Code

CWK

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

50.9m

Business description

Cranswick is a leading British supplier of premium, fresh and added-value products. It supplies a range of fresh pork, gourmet sausages, premium poultry, charcuterie, traditional bacon and gourmet pastry products through retail, food service and manufacturing channels. The UK is its core market.

Bull

Strong innovation pipeline helps fuel growth.

Consumer trend for increased protein consumption is supportive.

UK origin of produce resonates well with health-conscious consumers and minimises Brexit-related issues.

Bear

Significant capex investment dents cash flow in the shorter term. The company had a net cash position (£17.8m) at end FY16, £11m of net debt at end FY17, £16.7m of net debt at H118, and more capex projects announced for FY18-20.

There are execution risks associated with the poultry facility upgrade, as with all large projects.

Competitive landscape remains tough and the UK retail environment is challenging.

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

Cranswick posted another strong set of results (adjusted H1 pre-tax profit up 17%), demonstrating that the company’s innovation is keeping the products relevant and desirable to both consumers and retailers. As part of a material capex programme, management is embarking upon a significant expansion of its poultry business: a new state-of-the-art facility in Suffolk will double its existing capacity. Poultry currently represents just 11% of sales but continues to be an attractive target market for the company, given its growth.

Premium and convenience skew remains a winner

Cranswick's product offering is skewed towards the premium end of the market, and this is growing strongly. Cranswick continues to tap into these trends by launching new ranges in convenient formats. Its exposure to the café and quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment has also enabled it to gain deeper consumer insights around customer preferences and new recipes, and use this knowledge to aid innovation in the retail business. The company continues to invest in its facilities to remain relevant and agile. Speed of innovation remains an advantage in the space, and state-of-the-art facilities help to deliver both flexibility and cost savings.

UK retail environment remains tough

The UK retail environment remains tough: the big four supermarkets have returned to growth following a period of decline, but discounters are still gaining share. However, over time, management has demonstrated its ability to deal with a tough set of customers. While FX-related cost increases remain an issue across the industry, it is positive that pig prices have been falling since the end of July.

Valuation: Premium to competition

Trading at a consensus FY18e P/E of 23.6x, Cranswick continues to be valued at a premium to the meat processing and food manufacturing peer group, and appears to be supported by its near-term growth prospects. Bolt-on acquisitions remain a possibility and could prove to be a catalyst for the shares, although management has demonstrated its willingness to undertake capex projects in the absence of suitable acquisition targets in order to expand the business. Volatility is likely to remain a feature due to the agricultural nature of its raw materials. Given the tough consumer backdrop, management expects to offset some labour cost increases with cost savings from increased automation.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/16

1,069.6

64.4

102.8

37.5

31.3

1.2

03/17

1,245.1

75.5

120.9

44.1

26.6

1.4

03/18e

1,429.3

87.2

136.5

49.9

23.6

1.6

03/19e

1,493.7

91.8

146.2

53.0

22.0

1.6

Source: Bloomberg. Note: *Adjusted to exclude amortisation of intangible assets, impairment of goodwill, profit on sale of businesses and net IAS41 valuation movement on biological assets.

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investments Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Speedy Hire — Confident of sustainable UK earnings growth

Speedy Hire has signalled that it is fully through a transformation process and clearly focused on profitable growth. H1 revenue (ex-disposals) was almost 7% higher, at £183m, and management flagged that it expects to exceed previous adjusted PBT expectations for the full year by c 6-7%, which will form the base for future years. The positive results, benefiting from the recent operational restructuring, two recent bolt-on acquisitions and positive demand, point to sustained investor support.

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