Upward potential for revenues in the coming years
PVA TePla’s revenue profile has always been difficult to forecast. Because of the lumpiness of order intake and the long lead times, especially from Si crystal pullers, order intake is not a great proxy for PVA TePla’s revenues. For instance, in 2021 PVA TePla received an order from a large German silicon wafer producer for €95m for silicon crystal pullers, which are being delivered in FY23–25.
At FY23 the order book amounted to €278.3m, somewhat lower than FY22, and order intake was €221.8m, which signals another strong year. In general terms, Exhibit 6 indicates that backlog and order intake justify expectations of an increasing revenue base in the coming years.
Exhibit 6: Sales, incoming orders and backlog
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Source: PVA TePla, Edison Investment Research
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Like the highly cyclical semiconductor industry, orders and revenues from the industrial sector have been notoriously difficult to forecast. This segment of PVA TePla had negative growth in 2017 and 2021. Nevertheless, overall growth amounted to 78.8% between 2017 and 2023 or a CAGR of 15.1%. This is also much faster growth than the market for industrial systems.
We expect that this is because of PVA TePla’s positioning higher in the materials technology value chain and exposure to fast-growing market segments like semiconductors.
As PVA TePla’s business is split into semiconductor and industrial segments, we use the same approach in our model and estimates.
Global semiconductor equipment spending, which is typically what PVA TePla’s semiconductor activities are, is not the best predictor of PVA TePla’s future revenues (see Exhibit 7). If we consider several subsegments, like wafer fab spending and test equipment spending, there seems to be limited or no correlation. This is because the dynamics of the two most important segments, crystal pullers and metrology, are completely different. Demand for crystal pullers is high when shortages in wafer supply start to build up, and demand for metrology is high when production of chips is at a high. These two dynamics do not coincide.
Investments in bare wafer capacity are an important driver for PVA TePla’s crystal pulling activities, and these usually precede investments in equipment going into the fabs that process the wafers.
For Si (mostly used in PC/smartphone) and SiC (mostly used in EVs) demand dynamics are also different. Investments in metrology are mostly done when fabs are nearing fab readiness and correlate more with chip production and are, by nature, much later in the process.
Exhibit 7: No direct correlation between semiconductor equipment spending and PVA TePla segment revenues
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Source: Edison Investment Research, SEMI, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, PVA TePla
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It is clear is that PVA TePla has underperformed the general equipment market in only two of the last five years and its revenues increased 164% over this period, compared to the market’s 90%.
After a weak 2023, the semiconductor industry is in for a better 2024, with growth of 13.1% expected by sector organisation World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, driven by a better anticipated market environment for mobile, PC and data centre, especially driven by AI. Research organisation International Data Corporation (IDC) expects a 4% increase for smartphone and a 2% growth of PC market sales, and Statista expects a 2.6% increase for the automotive market. All in all, this leads to growth forecasts between 13% (Deloitte) and 20% (IDC) for the semiconductor market in 2024. Nevertheless, it should be noted that Q1 reporting so far from semiconductor companies like TSMC and ASML points to more muted development.
Within the semiconductor sector, this should result in a cyclical recovery for memory chips after two very slow years. For logic chips (like processors for PCs and smartphones), and especially for memory and logic chips for data centres, growth is expected this year.
Supply is also looking better. In 2024–27 many new fabs are planned. Sector organization SEMI expects 94 200mm and 300mm new fabs to come online between 2022 and 2026, 78 of which have begun operation, or are in the process of adding equipment or under construction. Of those, 63 are in Asia with 30 in China; 18 are in the US; and 13 are in Europe and the Middle East, according to SEMI’s World Fab Forecast 3Q23. All these fabs will need equipment, which will benefit equipment makers.
As such, we expect 2024 to be another good year for PVA TePla’s most important segment and we expect that this will continue in 2025, with some slowdown in growth in 2026 due to cyclicality.
By 2030, the global semiconductor industry is expected to reach a size of $1tn (several sources: a.o. DigiTimes, McKinsey, SEMI) from c $534bn expected in 2023 (Gartner). This growth will be driven by AI, digitisation and e-mobility. The capital intensity of the industry is also expected to increase, as geometries are getting smaller and material requirements more demanding. This combination of higher capital intensity and a higher revenue base bodes well for players like PVA TePla, which are exposed to the faster-growing part of equipment sales like metrology.
For FY24 we expect revenue growth of 8.2% for PVA TePla’s semiconductor activities, followed by 7.5% in 2025 as previously installed capacity is absorbed. We estimate a return to higher growth levels of 15.4% in 2026, driven by a new cycle in metrology equipment.
If we take out silicon growing systems, there is quite a lot of information about wafer capacity and demand in the market. Looking at the Q3 presentation from Sumco, a Japanese wafer manufacturer that consistently tracks the market, global wafer capacity should increase gradually in 2024, followed by a steeper increase in 2025. However, demand trends are not that positive in 2024 due to destocking but are expected to increase in 2025 according to the presentation. This is not a precise forecaster for PVA TePla’s crystal growth activities, as PVA TePla’s client group might behave differently and because geographical differences are large (for instance Chinese capacity build-up is more politically driven, compared to the US and Europe). However, this gives some indication of what growth could roughly look like.
Industrial systems sector
On the other hand, Industrial systems is also gaining traction and order intake in this segment has also been on a much higher level in the past five years, from €40m in 2017 to €82m in 2022. Although we expect growth in this segment to be much lower than in the semiconductor segment, it will still amount to c 30% in 2023 and we expect this to level off to c 8% in the years thereafter, as important end markets, especially EV automotive, seem to be slowing down. It is possible for PVA TePla to achieve this relatively high growth as its sophisticated systems have more applications in advanced products.
PVA TePla’s FY23 revenues came in ahead of FY23 guidance at ‘the upper end of the €240–260m range’. This implied a very strong Q4 of €72.3m (Q3: €64.5m). The order book amounted to €278.3m and this indicates that 2024 and 2025 are likely to be strong years as well. PVA TePla has received prepayments for the larger orders of €71.6m (FY22: €63.8m) on total contract liabilities of €95.3m, so customer commitment to these orders is strong.
All in all, this leads us to the following revenue estimates:
Exhibit 8: Profit & loss statement (€m)
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2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
Industrial systems |
33.3 |
37.3 |
45.2 |
45.6 |
37.9 |
59.5 |
77.4 |
82.8 |
89.4 |
Semiconductor systems |
52.1 |
59.5 |
85.8 |
91.4 |
117.9 |
145.7 |
186.1 |
201.4 |
216.4 |
Total revenues |
85.4 |
96.8 |
131.0 |
137.0 |
155.7 |
205.2 |
263.4 |
284.2 |
305.9 |
Total revenue growth |
-1.4% |
13.4% |
35.3% |
4.6% |
13.6% |
31.8% |
28.4% |
7.9% |
7.6% |
Gross profit |
19.1 |
31.1 |
37.7 |
43.2 |
46.8 |
59.1 |
77.5 |
85.8 |
94.2 |
Gross profit margin |
22.4% |
32.1% |
28.8% |
31.5% |
30.0% |
28.8% |
29.4% |
30.2% |
30.8% |
EBITDA |
5.5 |
12.3 |
16.2 |
22.7 |
23.0 |
30.0 |
41.5 |
47.9 |
53.2 |
Reported operating profit |
3.0 |
9.5 |
12.3 |
18.5 |
18.3 |
25.1 |
34.4 |
41.4 |
46.2 |
EBIT margin |
3.5% |
9.8% |
9.4% |
13.5% |
11.8% |
12.2% |
13.0% |
14.6% |
15.1% |
Net interest |
(0.7) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.7) |
(0.6) |
(1.3) |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
Profit before tax (reported) |
2.3 |
9.0 |
11.8 |
17.8 |
17.8 |
23.8 |
34.1 |
40.8 |
45.6 |
Profit after tax (reported) |
5.6 |
6.0 |
7.6 |
12.7 |
12.2 |
17.7 |
24.4 |
29.2 |
32.7 |
Average number of shares outstanding (m) diluted |
19.9 |
19.9 |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.7 |
21.7 |
EPS - normalised (c) |
0.28 |
0.30 |
0.38 |
0.61 |
0.56 |
0.85 |
1.22 |
1.44 |
1.60 |
Source: PVA TePla accounts, Edison Investment Research
Gross margins have varied over the years largely between 23% and 32% depending on what system sales were dominant in the revenue mix. In general, gross margins in Industrial systems are lower compared to Semiconductor systems. This explains the overall gradually increasing trend we expect to continue in the following few years towards 31% (ie the higher end of the historical range). Gross margins for semiconductor systems can run up to much higher percentages, typically between 40% and 60% (lower end ASMPT, higher end Besi for instance).
With revenue growth expected in the coming years, we expect operating leverage to increase EBITDA margins towards 18% from the c 15.8% realised in FY23. This implies that opex will decrease towards 13.4% of sales compared to 13.7% in FY23, as fixed costs will be a relatively lower percentage of sales when sales go up.
Depreciation and amortisation is at a higher level compared to the years before 2023 as a result of the acquisition of MPA Industries at the end of FY22. As there is a net cash position, financial costs are low. For the coming years we have pencilled in €0.6m per year. PVA TePla’s tax rate is expected to be stable at c 28.4%. All in all, our estimates suggest that reported net profit should accelerate towards €33m by FY25 (EPS: €1.51), compared to €24.4m (EPS: €1.12) in FY23.
Prepayments on the balance sheet
Due to the nature of PVA TePla’s business, with long-term contracts that are largely prepaid as explained above, PVA TePla has a relatively inflated balance sheet. Against its contract liabilities, there is a relatively large position of cash, term deposits, work in progress (contract assets) and inventories.
PVA TePla had cash (€20.1m) and financial assets (€10.0m), comprising mostly term deposits and term cash investments. Of this (near) cash, a large portion is committed to liabilities (contract liabilities at FY23 of €95.3m), especially for orders for silicon crystal pullers. Furthermore, there are €50.6m contract assets and €94.6m in inventories, which are also partly dedicated to these large orders.
Depending on these large orders, working capital has been either positive (more contract assets/inventory) or negative (large cash prepayments), a situation that we do not see a lot at other semiconductor equipment companies. ASML, which also has large orders and expensive tools is the best comparator in this respect. In FY23, we have seen contract liabilities decrease while inventories were building up with a somewhat higher amount.
With the fast-growing revenue base and a decrease of contract liabilities in the year, working capital increased to 27.6% of revenues in FY23, from 21% in FY22. After FY24, in which we expect a further build-up of working capital, we have pencilled in a return to c 4% working capital as a percentage of sales, which was the average over the last eight years.