Riber — MBE deliveries offset lower evaporator sales

Riber (EU: ALRIB)

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1.75

−0.09 (−4.89%)

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Research: TMT

Riber — MBE deliveries offset lower evaporator sales

Riber’s H119 revenue numbers show a 17% year-on-year decline to €13.9m, with higher molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) systems and service revenues partly offsetting lower evaporator sales. The order book indicates that evaporator sales will remain subdued in H219, so we reduce our FY19 group revenue and EPS estimates by 6% and 21%, respectively, leaving our FY20 estimates unchanged.

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Written by

TMT

Riber

MBE deliveries offset lower evaporator sales

H119 revenues

Tech hardware & equipment

8 August 2019

Price

€1.15

Market cap

€24m

Net cash (€m) at end December 2018

2.5

Shares in issue

20.8m

Free float

57.2%

Code

RIB

Primary exchange

Euronext Paris

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(17.1)

(26.2)

(65.8)

Rel (local)

(14.2)

(23.8)

(64.8)

52-week high/low

€3.59

€1.13

Business description

Riber designs and produces molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) systems and evaporator sources and cells for the semiconductor industry. This equipment is essential for the manufacturing of compound semiconductor materials that are used in numerous high-growth applications.

Next events

H119 results

30 September 2019

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

Riber is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Riber’s H119 revenue numbers show a 17% year-on-year decline to €13.9m, with higher molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) systems and service revenues partly offsetting lower evaporator sales. The order book indicates that evaporator sales will remain subdued in H219, so we reduce our FY19 group revenue and EPS estimates by 6% and 21%, respectively, leaving our FY20 estimates unchanged.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

30.5

4.0

0.13

0.05

8.8

4.4

12/18

31.3

2.0

0.07

0.05

16.4

4.4

12/19e

35.3

3.6

0.12

0.05

9.6

4.4

12/20e

35.9

4.5

0.15

0.05

7.7

4.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong MBE system performance in H119

As anticipated, given the order book at the start of FY19, revenues from MBE systems grew strongly, more than doubling to €8.6m during H119, as the group delivered four production machines, two of which were initially scheduled for delivery during H218, compared with only one production machine and three smaller R&D machines in H118. Revenues from services and spares rose by 65% to €4.3m, following an initiative to make the customer base more aware of the complete offering. As expected, sales of evaporators were much lower than the previous year (€1.0m vs €10.4m) reflecting lower demand from a major customer.

More to follow in H219

Management is confident that the strong performance in MBE systems will continue, with an order backlog at end June 2019 of 13 systems, six of which are the larger production machines, totalling €21.5m. It expects to deliver a further eight or nine systems during H219, so we leave our FY19 system revenue estimate unchanged. While the order book for services is lower than a year previously (€6.9m vs €8.3m), the sales cycle here is relatively short, giving time to secure additional orders sufficiently ahead of the year end for delivery during H219. We reduce our segmental revenue estimates slightly (see Exhibit 1). There are currently no orders for evaporators. While management remains confident that the major customer will recommence placing orders during H219, it is not likely to be able to fulfil these by the year end, so we substantially cut our FY19 segmental revenue estimates.

Valuation: Trading at a discount to peers

The share price has halved over the last year, and Riber is now trading at a discount to both Aixtron and Veeco with respect to all prospective multiples. While some discount for a small capitalisation and relatively low free float is justified, the size of the discount (year one EV/sales multiple of 0.6x for Riber vs 2.4x for our sample mean) is, in our opinion, unwarranted. This gives scope for share price appreciation as Riber converts the strong order book into a sustainable profit recovery.

Estimate revisions

Exhibit 1: Changes to estimates

€m

H119

End H119

FY18

FY19e

FY20e

Actual

Order book

Actual

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

System revenues

8.6

21.5

9.6

23.5

23.5

0.0%

19.8

19.8

0.0%

Evaporator revenues

1.0

0.0

11.6

3.0

1.0

-66.7%

4.0

4.0

0.0%

Service revenues

4.3

6.9

10.0

11.1

10.8

-32.8%

12.1

12.1

0.0%

Total revenues

13.9

28.4

31.3

37.7

35.3

-6.2%

35.9

35.9

0.0%

PBT

2.0

4.6

3.6

-20.8%

4.5

4.5

0.0%

EPS (€)

0.07

0.15

0.12

-20.7%

0.15

0.15

0.0%

DPS (€)

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.0%

0.05

0.05

0.0%

Net cash at year end

2.5

7.6

7.0

-7.9%

11.0

10.1

-8.6%

Source: Riber accounts, Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 2: Financial summary

€m

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

16.5

30.5

31.3

35.3

35.9

Cost of Sales

(10.4)

(17.0)

(19.6)

(22.1)

(21.7)

Gross Profit

6.0

13.6

11.7

13.2

14.2

EBITDA

 

 

0.2

5.9

3.3

4.5

5.4

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(1.3)

4.6

2.2

3.6

4.5

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.2

(0.9)

(2.2)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

(1.1)

3.8

0.0

3.6

4.5

Net Interest

0.0

(0.6)

(0.2)

(0.0)

0.0

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(1.3)

4.0

2.0

3.6

4.5

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(1.1)

3.1

(0.2)

3.6

4.5

Reported tax

0.0

1.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(1.3)

2.7

1.4

2.5

3.2

Profit After Tax (reported)

(1.1)

4.1

0.3

3.6

4.5

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(1.3)

2.7

1.4

2.5

3.2

Net income (reported)

(1.1)

4.1

0.3

3.6

4.5

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

21

21

21

21

21

EPS - basic normalised (€)

 

 

(0.06)

0.13

0.07

0.12

0.15

EPS - diluted normalised (€)

 

 

(0.06)

0.13

0.07

0.12

0.15

EPS - basic reported (€)

 

 

(0.05)

0.19

0.02

0.17

0.21

Dividend (€)

0.00

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

Revenue growth (%)

28.9

85.6

2.5

12.9

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

36.7

44.5

37.5

37.5

39.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

1.4

19.4

10.4

12.8

14.9

Normalised Operating Margin

-8.2

15.2

7.1

10.3

12.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

8.0

9.0

9.5

9.6

9.8

Intangible Assets

2.9

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

Tangible Assets

4.6

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.1

Investments & other

0.5

2.1

2.8

2.8

2.8

Current Assets

 

 

18.4

28.4

28.2

27.5

31.0

Stocks

7.3

9.9

15.3

11.6

11.8

Debtors

7.1

9.1

8.8

7.7

7.9

Cash & cash equivalents

2.5

7.4

3.0

7.0

10.2

Other

1.4

2.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

Current Liabilities

 

 

(10.3)

(17.0)

(17.3)

(14.0)

(14.3)

Creditors

(10.3)

(16.7)

(16.8)

(14.0)

(14.3)

Tax and social security

0.0

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

Other

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(0.6)

(0.7)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(0.6)

(0.7)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

Net Assets

 

 

15.5

19.8

19.2

21.7

25.1

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

15.5

19.8

19.2

21.7

25.1

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(0.1)

6.7

4.2

4.5

5.4

Working capital

0.1

1.3

(5.3)

1.9

(0.1)

Exceptional & other

0.0

(0.5)

(1.7)

0.0

0.0

Tax

0.0

(1.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(0.0)

6.6

(2.8)

6.4

5.3

Capex

(0.8)

(1.1)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(1.1)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

1.5

(0.1)

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Other

2.4

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

3.0

4.9

(5.2)

4.5

3.1

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

0.6

(2.5)

(7.4)

(2.5)

(7.0)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2.5)

(7.4)

(2.5)

(7.0)

(10.1)

Source: Riber accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Riber and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Riber. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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New Zealand

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Riber and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Riber. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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