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Mitula Group — Update 7 June 2016

Mitula Group — Update 7 June 2016

Mitula Group

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Mitula Group

Greenlighting new revenue flows

Trading update

Media

7 June 2016

Price

A$0.98

Market cap

A$205m

Net cash (A$m) at 31 December 2015

21.0

Shares in issue

208.8m

Free float

34%

Code

MUA

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

18.1

(9.8)

N/A

Rel (local)

18.6

(14.0)

N/A

52-week high/low

A$1.20

A$0.77

Business description

Mitula Group is a leading online classifieds aggregator with 73 vertical search websites in 46 countries, across real estate, employment, motoring and, in some countries, vacation rentals. In 18 different languages, these sites operate under the Mitula, Nestoria and Nuroa brands.

Next events

FY16 results

August 2016

Analysts

Finola Burke

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Moira Daw

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Mitula Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Mitula Group (MUA) is a leading aggregator of online classified listings, operating in the global online advertising market. While MUA reports on a calendar year basis, it has reaffirmed its 30 June 2016 prospectus forecast for NPAT of A$10.1m. Our NPAT forecast for this period is within 1.2% of current guidance. More significantly, MUA has identified new revenue streams from its emerging markets that could lead to a medium-term revenue uplift not currently forecast.

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

20.6

7.5

3.0

0.0**

32.7

N/A

12/16e

32.2

15.9

5.8

0.0

16.9

N/A

12/17e

42.8

21.6

7.8

0.0

12.6

N/A

12/18e

51.7

26.7

9.4

0.0

10.4

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Not reflecting €2.1m (A$2.9m) extraordinary dividend paid pre-IPO to shareholders in Mitula Classifieds, wholly owned by MUA.

Q3 results and prospectus forecast confirmed

MUA reported 26% q-o-q growth in March quarter revenues to A$6.7m, while q-o-q EBITDA increased 33% to A$3.3m to deliver a record EBITDA margin of 50%. The company has reaffirmed its prospectus guidance for NPAT of A$10.1m for the 12 months ending 30 June 2016, but trimmed its revenue and EBITDA guidance by 2.7% and 3.3% respectively. We note that our revenue forecast for the period (12 months to June 2016) is A$27.1m, slightly ahead of guidance for A$25.5m, but our EBITDA forecast of A$12.7m and NPAT forecast for A$10.2m are within 1.2% of guidance. We are not proposing earnings forecast changes at this point.

New revenue streams identified

MUA has identified several new revenue streams available in its less mature markets, which are categorised as Tier 2 markets. The company plans to launch, at negligible additional cost, a self-service capacity for smaller advertisers and allow end customers to advertise directly on Mitula’s websites. We estimate that a 15% increase in Tier 2 direct CPC revenue (which equates to a 5% increase in total direct CPC revenue) could increase our FY17 EPS by 4.5%, and, if sustained, increase our DCF valuation by 9.4% to A$1.63/share.

Valuation: Blended valuation is A$1.38/share

We use a blended valuation of DCF methodology and peer comparison to value MUA. Our DCF valuation uses a WACC 12.0%, a beta of 1.2 and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, and arrives at a valuation (including in-the-money options) of A$1.49/share (previously A$1.40). The implied valuation, using the forward 12-month EV/EBITDA median of MUA’s listed peer group, is A$1.26/share. This was previously A$1.31/share, but has declined due to share price changes in the peer group. Consequently, our blended valuation is now A$1.38/share (previously A$1.36/share).

March quarter summary and trading update

Mitula Group reported a significant uplift in March quarter key performance indicators, which in turn delivered a near 33% increase in March quarter EBITDA. Exhibit 1 demonstrates the quarter-on-quarter growth in total visits across Mitula’s sites (20.3%) and splits out the visits generated by organic search and direct visits. The 35.7% q-o-q growth in direct visits highlights the traction that MUA’s brands are getting with consumers who are visiting the sites directly rather than via search engines. This also has translated into significant growth in email alert subscribers, which increased 56.3% q-o-q to 10 million by the end of March 2016. These subscribers give MUA the dual opportunity to develop a direct relationship with them with relevant email alerts and advertising, as well as to target brands and advertisers looking for such an audience.

While the click outs sold remained flat in terms of actual numbers (117.9m in March 2016 versus 116.9m in March 2015), the yield per click out increased 18.2% q-o-q. The company noted in its 17 March presentation that during the period from October 2014 to January 2016, up to 15% of click outs sold were sold as remnant inventory and were therefore extremely low yield. MUA has subsequently replaced these with higher-yielding customers, hence the rise in yield as show in Exhibit 1.

Exhibit 1: Traffic KPIs for March quarter 2016 vs March quarter 2015

March quarter 2016

March quarter 2015

% chg

Total visits (m)

192.4

160.0

20.3

Visits from organic search (m)

129.9

117.6

10.4

% visits from organic search

67.5%

73.5%

Direct visits (m)

47.3

34.9

35.7

% Direct visits

24.6%

21.8%

Email alert subscribers (m)

10.0

6.4

56.3

Click outs (m)

293.9

239.6

22.7

Click outs sold (m)

117.9

116.9

0.8

% click outs sold

40.1%

48.8%

Yield/click out sold

3.9

3.3

18.2

Source: Mitula Group

MUA reported a 25.6% q-o-q lift in revenues for the March quarter and a 32.6% improvement in
q-o-q EBITDA to A$3.3m, as Exhibit 2 demonstrates. The company’s EBITDA margin hit a record of 50% in the quarter.

Exhibit 2: March quarter revenue and EBITDA performance

(A$m)

March quarter 2016

March quarter 2015

% chg

Revenue

6.7

5.3

25.6

EBITDA

3.3

2.5

32.6

EBITDA margin

50.0%

47.4%

5.6

Source: Mitula Group

MUA reports on a calendar year basis, but it has also provided prospectus guidance for the 12 months to 30 June 2016. The nine-month performance of the group is shown in Exhibit 3, with EBITDA growth outpacing revenue growth. This, in our view, demonstrates the operating leverage the company is getting from its top-line growth.

Exhibit 3: Ytd performance for the nine months to March

(A$m)

Nine months to March 2016

Nine months to March 2015

% chg

Revenue

18.3

14.0

30.9

EBITDA

8.8

5.9

49.5

EBITDA margin (%)

48.0%

42.0%

14.3

Source: Mitula Group

MUA has reiterated its prospectus forecast for A$10.1m NPAT for the 12 months to 30 June, but trimmed its revenue forecast by 2.7% to A$25.5m and its EBITDA forecast by 3.3% to A$12.9m.

In doing so, MUA has laid down a forecast of A$7.2m in revenue for the June 2016 quarter and EBITDA of A$4.1m for the same period. The company is anticipating it will deliver an EBITDA margin of 57% in the June quarter, as Exhibit 4 highlights.

Exhibit 4: June quarter forecasted revenue and EBITDA versus June quarter 2015

(A$m)

June quarter 2016e

June quarter 2015

% chg

Revenue

7.2

5.5

30.5

EBITDA

4.1

2.3

75.8

EBITDA margin (%)

57%

42%

34.7

Source: Mitula Group

Exhibit 5 sets out MUA’s new forecast for the 12 months to 30 June 2016 versus the same period in 2015 and our estimates. While our forecasts for revenue are a little higher than the company’s, our NPAT forecast is within 1.2%. We are not proposing changes to our forecasts at this point.

Exhibit 5: MUA’s forecast for the 12 months to 30 June 2016 vs Edison’s estimates

12 months ending 30 June

MUA 2016e

2015a

% chg

Edison 2016e

% diff on MUA forecast

Revenue

25.5

18.9

35.0

27.1

6.1

EBITDA

12.9

7.8

64.7

12.7

-1.1

NPAT

10.1

5.9

73.1

10.2

1.2

Source: Mitula Group, Edison Investment Research

The following exhibit sets out MUA’s forecast for the first six months of fiscal 2016, which is on calendar year basis. As highlighted, our forecast for revenue for the same period is higher, but our EBITDA estimate is lower than the company’s.

Exhibit 6: MUA’s H116 forecast versus H115 and Edison H116e

Six months ending 30 June

MUA H116e

H115

% chg

Edison H116e

% diff on MUA forecast

Revenue

13.8

10.8

28.1

14.7

6.4

EBITDA

7.4

4.9

53.3

6.9

-7.3

EBITDA margin (%)

53.4%

44.9%

19.7

46.5%

-12.9

Source: Mitula Group, Edison Investment Research

New revenue streams identified

MUA has identified additional opportunities to generate new revenue streams in its key Tier 1 and Tier 2 markets. The company has recognised that in its Tier 2 markets, which are emerging, high-growth markets where the structure is yet to be determined, it has not monetised the opportunity as well as it could. MUA has noted that in these markets a high number of clicks are unsold or sold at low yields. Exhibit 7 sets out MUA’s markets by tier, characteristic and performance.

Exhibit 7: Mitula Group market segmentation

Market characteristics

Example countries

% of visits

% of clicks

% of clicks sold

% of CPC* revenue

Tier 1

Mature vertical, defined market structure, major and minor players investing in traffic generation or rapid-growth emerging markets with major players investing heavily in traffic generation

Mature: UK, Australia Emerging: Brazil, India

47.9%

44.8%

66.4%

77.6%

Tier 2

Rapid growth high population with low but growing internet usage; market structure not yet determined

Mexico, Philippines, Indonesia

47.3%

51.4%

31.4%

18.6%

Tier 3

Small markets with clear structure but low population or very early stage markets without clear structure

Mature: New Zealand, Netherlands

Emerging: Pakistan, Nigeria

4.8%

3.8%

2.2%

3.8%

Source: Mitula Group March Quarter 2016 Market Update presentation. Note: *Cost-per-click (CPC).

As Exhibit 7 shows, the Tier 2 countries are generating 31.4% of the clicks sold, but this is translating into only 18.6% of cost-per-click (CPC) revenue.

MUA has announced that in addition to its existing revenue streams from AdSense and direct CPC revenues, it would also launch self-service capacity for smaller portals and general classifieds sites to purchase “click packages” using credit cards and allow direct listings in its Tier 2 countries. The company also will target advertisers directly with advertising products designed to utilise its 10 million subscriber base.

Management is of the view that the click packages will give MUA access to smaller advertisers not currently being serviced by the direct sales team and will convert into increased clicks sold and yield per click. Direct listings and advertising products are both new revenue streams for the group. It is our view that the most immediate impact will come from the Tier 2 countries where there is an opportunity to significantly lift yield on the number of clicks sold by targeting smaller underserviced advertisers. We address the potential upside in the following scenario analysis.

Scenario analysis on new revenue focus

We have undertaken a scenario analysis on the impact on our FY17 forecasts and DCF valuation should MUA increase its CPC revenues in its Tier 2 countries. We have applied increases of 5%, 10% and 15% to the current Tier 2 CPC revenues, and this translated into increases of 1.5%, 3.5% and 5.0% in total CPC revenues.

Exhibit 8 sets out the three scenarios and demonstrates the potential upside on our current forecasts should the different rates of growth be achieved.

Exhibit 8: Scenario analysis on new Tier 2 revenue streams

A$m

Current FY17

+1.5% CPC sales

% upside on 1.5% lift

+3.5% CPC sales

% upside on 3.5% lift

+5% CPC sales

% upside on 5% lift

Revenue

42.8

43.1

0.8

43.5

1.8

43.9

2.6

Gross profit

37.6

37.8

0.8

38.2

1.8

38.5

2.6

EBITDA

20.8

21.1

1.4

21.5

3.3

21.8

4.7

NPAT

15.3

15.5

1.4

15.8

3.3

16.0

4.8

EPS (c)

7.7

7.9

1.4

8.0

3.2

8.1

4.5

DCF per share (A$)

1.49

1.53

2.8

1.59

6.5

1.63

9.4

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We have used a blend of DCF methodology and peer comparison to value MUA, arriving at A$1.38/share. In our initiation report of 29 March 2016, the blended valuation was A$1.36/share. The reduction is due a decline in the EV/EBITDA multiple that we arrive at using MUA’s listed peers. As Exhibit 9 demonstrates, at 25 May 2016, the median EV/EBITDA of the group was 17.8x (previously 18.6x).

Exhibit 9: Peer comparison

Company

Country

Currency

Price

Mkt cap m (local)

Mkt cap (US$m)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

EBITDA margin (%)

Operating margin (%)

Mitula Group

Australia

A$

1.04

217

156

32.4

16.2

47.0

40.3

Next Co

Japan

JPY

1,189.00

141,240

1,282

42.1

22.6

18.6

16.7

Recruit Holdings

Japan

JPY

3,680.00

2,080,378

18,890

29.3

7.6

12.7

6.8

Axel Springer

Germany

€

50.36

5,434

6,055

20.2

11.2

16.8

13.2

Carsales

Australia

A$

12.45

3,002

2,155

27.5

18.6

50.1

48.0

eBay Classifieds Group

US

US$

23.46

26,953

26,953

11.8

6.8

41.3

34.2

Fairfax Media

Australia

A$

0.92

2,104

1,511

15.0

5.4

20.8

16.7

Google

USA

US$

717.25

487,642

487,642

19.1

10.1

56.0

46.8

Immobiliare

Italy

€

0.78

632

704

11.4

17.8

67.1

72.6

Naspers

South Africa

ZAR

214,535

941,020

60,084

4,525.5

114.4

10.2

5.1

Seek

Australia

A$

15.68

5,401

3,878

30.4

14.9

39.2

32.5

REA Group

Australia

A$

54.84

7,223

5,187

32.7

20.8

56.0

51.0

Rightmove

UK

£

4,094.00

3,867

5,650

28.5

22.6

76.1

77.4

Schibsted

Norway

NOK

249.40

57,690

6,907

57.2

31.8

11.1

8.6

Trade Me

NZ/Australia

NZ$

4.61

1,831

1,234

21.6

13.7

65.4

56.8

Zillow

USA

US$

27.76

5,003

5,003

57.5

23.2

25.0

8.5

Zoopla

UK

£

300.00

1,254

1,832

2,991.0

24.0

37.4

31.8

Classifieds and search companies

 

Median

5,002.9

28.5

17.8

39.2

32.5

Source: Bloomberg. Note: *Prices at 25 May 2016.

We have applied the peer EBITDA multiple to our FY16 EBITDA forecasts and, after also subtracting a 10% discount for MUA’s relative size, we arrive at a peer comparison valuation of A$1.26/share (previously A$1.31).

Exhibit 10: Peer comparison valuation

Peer EBITDA multiple (x)

17.8

FY16e EBITDA (A$m)

15.4

EV based on comp (A$m)

275.4

Subtract net debt or add cash (A$m)

21.0

Total equity value (A$m)

296.4

after 10% discount (A$m)

266.8

Number of shares including options (m)

211.6

Equity value/ share (A$)

1.26

Source: Edison Investment Research

Our DCF valuation uses a WACC of 12.0%, beta of 1.2 and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, which we consider conservative given the high growth forecasted for the global paid search sector for the foreseeable future. As Exhibit 11 highlights, we arrive at an equity value of A$316m, which is at a ~44% premium to the company’s current market capitalisation. Our valuation per share of A$1.49 (previously A$1.40/share but subsequently rolled over for the March quarter) incorporates 2.8m in-the-money options, which have a November 2018 conversion date.

Exhibit 11: DCF valuation parameters

WACC

12.0%

Beta

1.2

Terminal growth rate

2.00%

PV of cash flows (A$m)

148.6

Terminal value (A$m)

146.3

Net cash at 31 December 2015

-21.0

Equity value (A$m)

315.9

Value per share (A$)*

$1.49

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *2.8m in-the-money options included in share count.


Exhibit 12: Financial summary

A$000s

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

 

20,568

32,239

42,751

51,673

Cost of Sales

(2,511)

(3,918)

(5,196)

(6,280)

Gross Profit

18,057

28,321

37,556

45,393

EBITDA

 

 

 

9,543

15,448

20,821

25,621

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

9,321

15,223

20,562

25,265

Intangible Amortisation

(881)

(1,080)

(875)

(709)

Exceptionals

(1,424)

0

0

0

Other

(857)

0

0

0

Operating Profit

6,158

14,143

19,687

24,556

Net Interest

(1,772)

664

993

1,481

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

 

7,549

15,887

21,555

26,746

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

 

4,387

14,807

20,681

26,037

Tax

(1,798)

(3,850)

(5,377)

(6,770)

Profit After Tax (norm)

5,751

12,037

16,178

19,976

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

2,589

10,957

15,304

19,267

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

189.2

208.8

208.8

211.6

EPS - normalised (c )

 

 

 

3.04

5.76

7.75

9.44

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c )

 

 

3.02

5.69

7.65

9.44

EPS - (IFRS) (c )

 

 

 

1.37

5.25

7.33

9.10

Dividend per share (c )

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

87.8

87.8

87.8

87.8

EBITDA Margin (%)

46.4

47.9

48.7

49.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

45.3

47.2

48.1

48.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

 

11,748

15,878

15,601

15,389

Intangible Assets

10,770

14,260

13,386

12,677

Tangible Assets

729

1,369

1,967

2,463

Investments

249

249

249

249

Current Assets

 

 

 

24,890

31,588

47,593

67,431

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

3,885

2,167

2,874

3,473

Cash

21,003

29,419

44,717

63,956

Other

2

2

2

2

Current Liabilities

 

 

 

(2,220)

(1,991)

(2,415)

(2,774)

Creditors

(2,220)

(1,991)

(2,415)

(2,774)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

 

(1,686)

(1,686)

(1,686)

(1,686)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(1,686)

(1,686)

(1,686)

(1,686)

Net Assets

 

 

 

32,732

43,789

59,093

78,360

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

 

8,797

16,937

20,538

25,381

Net Interest

(1,772)

664

993

1,481

Tax

(2,672)

(3,850)

(5,377)

(6,770)

Capex inc R&D

(654)

(865)

(857)

(853)

Acquisitions/disposals

(8,266)

(4,470)

0

0

Financing

23,744

0

0

0

Dividends

(2,896)

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

16,280

8,416

15,298

19,239

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

 

(4,197)

(21,003)

(29,419)

(44,717)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

526

0

(0)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

 

(21,003)

(29,419)

(44,717)

(63,956)

Source: Mitula Group accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Genticel — Update 7 June 2016

Genticel

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