Games Workshop Group — Momentum continued into Q325

Games Workshop Group (LSE: GAW)

Last close As at 05/03/2025

GBP137.60

−440.00 (−3.10%)

Market capitalisation

GBP4,682m

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Research: Consumer

Games Workshop Group — Momentum continued into Q325

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) trading update states core and licensing revenue in January and February 2025 have been better than expected, continuing the momentum in Q325 that was reported at the time of the H125 results. As a result, we increase our FY25 PBT estimate by c 9%, while leaving our FY26 estimate unchanged.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director of Content, Consumer and Media

Craftworld Eldar_games workshop

Consumer goods

Q325 trading update

6 March 2025

Price 14,200.00p
Market cap £4,537m

Net cash/(debt) at 30 November 2024 (excluding IFRS 16 liabilities £46.4m)

£125.8m

Shares in issue

33.0m
Free float 100.0%
Code GAW
Primary exchange LSE
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs (5.6) (1.9) 52.7
52-week high/low 14,860.0p 8,917.9p

Business description

Games Workshop is a leading international specialist designer, manufacturer and multi-channel retailer of miniatures, scenery, artwork and fiction for tabletop miniature games set in its fantasy Warhammer worlds.

Next events

FY25 trading update

June 2025

FY25 results

July 2025

Analysts

Russell Pointon
+44 (0)20 3077 5700
Nick Hawkins
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Games Workshop Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (£) DPS (£) P/E (x) Yield (%)
5/23 470.8 171.6 4.12 4.15 34.5 2.9
5/24 525.7 204.2 4.61 4.20 30.8 3.0
5/25e 602.1 241.6 5.49 4.70 25.9 3.3
5/26e 579.6 216.2 4.91 4.20 28.9 3.0

Q325 trading better than anticipated

With the H125 results (to end-November 2024), management indicated trading in H225 had started well, with core revenue growth of 12% in December 2025, the company’s best ever December. The trading update today confirms that growth for the rest of Q325 has been better than management anticipated across core and licensing revenue. At the same stage last year, there was also no quantification of the growth or absolute revenue in Q324 beyond revenue being in line with expectations.

FY25 profit estimate upgraded by 9%

Our FY25 estimates following the interim results in January 2025 included similar absolute levels of core revenue in H225 as H125 to give year-on-year growth for FY25 revenue of c 9%. We have increased our H225 core revenue estimate by c £15m so that FY25’s growth increases to c 12%. Our January 2025 estimates also included limited licensing revenue in H225 of c £5m following £30–31m in both H224 and H125. We have increased our H225 licensing revenue estimate by c £15m to give licensing revenue of £50m for the full year. The overall 5% increase in our FY25 revenue estimate translates to a 9% upgrade to our FY25 PBT estimate, given the leverage to the group result from high-margin licensing revenue. The profit upgrade is supportive of our prior FY25 dividend estimate of 470p per share, which already implied a further dividend will be declared in FY25. This follows the four prior dividends declared so far in the financial year for a cumulative 420p per share. We make no changes to our estimates for FY26. The broad assumptions here are limited core revenue growth, following the launches of the new editions of Warhammer 40K in FY24 and Age of Sigmar in FY25. We also incorporate lower absolute licensing revenue, following the success of the Space Marine 2 video game in FY25.

Valuation: At high end of recent multiples

GAW’s prospective P/E multiple remains at a premium to its long-term average since FY17 of 18.9x but more in line with its recent peak multiples of 24–25x in FY23 and FY24. The multiple has moved to the high end of its recent range as the market has begun to discount potential incremental value from the licensing agreement with Amazon, which we discussed in our January 2025 note.

Financials

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