Alpha Bank — Moody’s raise to investment grade

Alpha Bank (ALPHA.AT)

Last close As at 01/07/2024

EUR1.59

0.07 (4.61%)

Market capitalisation

EUR3,469m

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Research: Financials

Alpha Bank — Moody’s raise to investment grade

On 27 June, Moody’s upgraded Alpha Bank’s long-term senior-unsecured debt rating by two notches to Baa3 (Ba2 previously), its long- and short-term deposit ratings by one notch to Baa3/P-3 (Ba1/NP previously) and its long- and short-term counterparty credit risk (CCR) rating by one notch to Baa2/P-2 (Baa3/P-3 previously). The move takes Moody’s key ratings on Alpha to investment grade for the first time in 14 years. This is a further positive development for Alpha as it continues to execute its strategy and demonstrate recurring profitability and capital generation. S&P, Fitch and Capital Intelligence currently assign BB- (sub-investment grade) long-term debt ratings to Alpha Bank.

Written by

Robert Murphy

Managing Director, Financials and Investment Trusts

Financials

Alpha Bank

Moody’s raise to investment grade

Financials

Spotlight - Flash

1 July 2024

Price

€1.50

Market cap

€3.5bn

Share price graph

Share details

Code

ALPHA

Listing

ATH

Shares in issue

2.35bn

FL CET1

14.6%

Business description

Founded in 1879, Alpha Bank is the one of the largest Greek banks with assets totalling €74bn in FY23. Aside from Greece, the bank has operations in Cyprus, Romania, Luxembourg and the UK, providing an array of financial services including retail and corporate banking, life insurance, investment services and real estate management.

Bull

Alpha continues to beat market expectations on earnings.

Guidance on earnings and capital have been maintained.

Strong capital generation plan with a shareholder-friendly capital return policy.

Bear

NPE ratio is relatively high within the European banking industry.

Net interest margin is expected to decline in FY24, pressuring revenues.

The Athens Stock Exchange is less liquid than other exchanges.

Analyst

Rob Murphy

+44 7900 484 805

Alpha Bank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

On 27 June, Moody’s upgraded Alpha Bank’s long-term senior-unsecured debt rating by two notches to Baa3 (Ba2 previously), its long- and short-term deposit ratings by one notch to Baa3/P-3 (Ba1/NP previously) and its long- and short-term counterparty credit risk (CCR) rating by one notch to Baa2/P-2 (Baa3/P-3 previously). The move takes Moody’s key ratings on Alpha to investment grade for the first time in 14 years. This is a further positive development for Alpha as it continues to execute its strategy and demonstrate recurring profitability and capital generation. S&P, Fitch and Capital Intelligence currently assign BB- (sub-investment grade) long-term debt ratings to Alpha Bank.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT

(€m)

*EPS

(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E

(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

1,888

544

0.17

0.00

8.8

0.0

12/23

2,370

773

0.25

0.00

6.0

0.0

12/24e

2,102

975

0.30

0.10

5.0

6.7

12/25e

2,134

1,023

0.31

0.12

4.8

8.0

Source: LSEG. Note: *EPS is basic statutory at 27 June 2024.

In addition to the long-term senior-unsecured, deposit and CCR upgrades, Moody’s has also upgraded Alpha’s subordinated debt by two notches to Ba2 (B1 previously) and its standalone baseline credit assessment by one notch to Ba2 (Ba3 previously).

Moody’s highlighted the improvement in non-performing exposures and related strong collateral backing, cost efficiency and sustainable earnings power at Alpha as it executes its business plan. The fully loaded Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 14.6% at March 2024 would be 16.2% pro forma for the UniCredit transaction, which is expected to close by the end of 2024. Moreover, Alpha projects a CET1 ratio of 17.5% by 2026, which should help to reduce the reliance on deferred tax credits in regulatory capital.

The ratings upgrades should have a positive impact on future funding costs and profitability at Alpha Bank as the pool of potential investors should grow considerably.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Alpha Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alpha Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Alpha Bank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Alpha Bank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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