Q1 results: Slow start to year, but outlook looks good
While Q1 was weaker than management expected, SNP is maintaining guidance for FY18, with revenue in the €150-155m range and an EBIT margin in the mid-single digits. Despite the weak Q1, new orders rose by 68% to €40.9m, while the backlog jumped by 72% to €70.2m. Consequently, the group’s financial performance is expected to pick up as the year progresses.
Q1 group revenue grew by 46% to €31.6m, including organic growth of €0.3m, or c 2%, and the impact of four acquisitions (Innoplexia, SNP Poland, Adepcon and ERST). There was also a c €450k FX tailwind. There was an operating loss of €2.6m, which was after €1m of exceptional costs that are not expected to continue. This included €0.3m of acquisition-related expenses, €0.4m from the changeover to IFRS 15 and €0.3m in other factors, mainly being redundancies in North America. Around 25 full-time positions were eliminated in Q1, which is expected to generate savings in the lower single-digit millions.
The group is continuing to evolve following the significant acquisitions of the last two years. The two-person executive board has been replaced with a six-person leadership team to reflect the global nature of the group. Much of management time has been on transforming the group processes following the recent acquisitions. SNP rehired Dieter Matheis late last year on a temporary contract as global CFO to assist in the process. Meanwhile, the overall group strategy, to build a global, software-based IT services business providing support in transformation projects, both at international and regional levels, remains intact.
The DACH (German-speaking) area has been performing well (10% revenue growth y-o-y to €15.4m), as have BCC (€4.8m revenues) and Adepcon (€4.2m revenues), which are the major acquisitions of 2017, and the UK (€2.0m revenues, up 33%). BCC, now called SNP Poland, has been fully integrated, while Adepcon continues to operate as it did previously. The laggard regions have been North America and Asia. North America saw a 22% decline in revenues to €3.6m, which largely reflects the lumpiness of orders, as a large order recently completed. In Asia, revenues rose by 7% to €1.6m, representing 5% of group revenues, compared with 10% of employees. The new transformation contract with Spectrum Brands is a positive development for the North American business and also highlights the emphasis on increasing software sales. Henry Göttler, who was running the Asian business, has left the group.
There were several project delays, which mostly related to SAP S/4HANA and resulted in lower utilisation levels as well as lower software sales. S/4HANA is very complex to implement, and the S/4HANA projects are expected to be staggered or implemented over the coming months.
Professional services revenue jumped by 33% to €25.4m, reflecting a 6% organic decline and €7.4m from acquisitions. The company has also added a new cloud revenue category that incorporates the hosting activities of the recently acquired SNP Poland, with €0.4m revenue generated in Q1.
Total software licence sales more than doubled to €5.7m, including €1.8m from acquisitions and 56% organic growth. The total includes €1.9m of third-party software resales. Despite the strong organic growth, sales of SNP’s high-margin applications, including Interface Scanner, DPM and Dragoman, were lower than expected.
Exhibit 1: Quarterly analysis
Quarterly analysis |
2016 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
2019 |
€'000 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2-Q4 |
FYe |
FYe |
Professional services |
66,640 |
19,089 |
22,151 |
25,936 |
31,157 |
98,333 |
25,441 |
89,516 |
114,957 |
125,556 |
Cloud |
|
|
|
|
|
|
424 |
1,376 |
1,800 |
1,971 |
Licences |
11,982 |
1,733 |
3,042 |
5,935 |
8,389 |
19,099 |
3,697 |
23,974 |
27,671 |
30,300 |
Maintenance |
2,063 |
776 |
1,237 |
1,140 |
1,758 |
4,911 |
1,991 |
4,830 |
6,821 |
7,469 |
Total revenue |
80,685 |
21,598 |
26,430 |
33,011 |
41,304 |
122,343 |
31,553 |
119,696 |
151,249 |
165,297 |
Other operating income* |
1,228 |
235 |
295 |
171 |
1,217 |
1,918 |
833 |
|
|
|
Cost of materials |
(8,276) |
(2,260) |
(3,244) |
(7,037) |
(6,674) |
(19,215) |
(5,135) |
|
|
|
Personnel costs |
(47,207) |
(14,657) |
(15,511) |
(18,849) |
(22,455) |
(71,472) |
(21,363) |
|
|
|
Other operating expenses |
(17,811) |
(6,692) |
(6,461) |
(7,156) |
(9,626) |
(29,935) |
(7,183) |
|
|
|
Other taxes |
(95) |
(28) |
(277) |
(32) |
(196) |
(533) |
(118) |
|
|
|
Op costs (before depreciation) |
(72,161) |
(23,402) |
(25,198) |
(32,903) |
(37,572) |
(119,075) |
(32,966) |
(107,401) |
(140,367) |
(146,954) |
Adjusted EBITDA |
8,524 |
(1,804) |
1,232 |
108 |
3,732 |
3,268 |
(1,413) |
12,295 |
10,882 |
18,343 |
Depreciation* |
(1,010) |
(344) |
(390) |
(493) |
(528) |
(1,755) |
(808) |
(2,680) |
(3,488) |
(4,408) |
Adjusted operating profit |
7,514 |
(2,148) |
842 |
(385) |
3,204 |
1,513 |
(2,221) |
9,615 |
7,394 |
13,935 |
Operating Margin |
9.3% |
(9.9%) |
3.2% |
(1.2%) |
7.8% |
1.2% |
(7.0%) |
8.0% |
4.9% |
8.4% |
Net interest |
(1,137) |
(577) |
(181) |
(218) |
(351) |
(1,327) |
(287) |
(913) |
(1,200) |
(1,000) |
Edison profit before tax (norm) |
6,377 |
(2,725) |
661 |
(603) |
2,853 |
186 |
(2,508) |
8,702 |
6,194 |
12,935 |
Amortisation of acq'd intangibles* |
(657) |
(250) |
(300) |
(350) |
(1,121) |
(2,021) |
(400) |
(1,200) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
Associates |
8 |
0 |
(1) |
12 |
(35) |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Earnings before tax |
5,728 |
(2,975) |
360 |
(941) |
1,697 |
(1,859) |
(2,908) |
7,502 |
4,594 |
11,335 |
New orders and backlog |
2016 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
|
|
Incoming orders |
95,600 |
24,400 |
33,200 |
37,400 |
35,700 |
130,700 |
40,900 |
|
|
|
Quarterly revenues |
80,685 |
21,598 |
26,430 |
33,011 |
41,304 |
122,343 |
31,553 |
|
|
|
Book-to-bill ratio |
1.18 |
1.13 |
1.26 |
1.13 |
0.86 |
1.07 |
1.30 |
|
|
|
Backlog |
|
40,800 |
48,500 |
62,200 |
61,300 |
|
70,200 |
|
|
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. *Quarterly amortisation of acquired intangibles is estimated data.
The group maintains healthy cash balances following its capital-raising last year. SNP recently amended the presentation of its accounts, with financial liabilities now including acquisition liabilities (see our previous update note). The Q1 operating cash outflow was €4.7m and, after capex of €1.4m, free cash outflow was €6.1m. The group paid €3.2m in acquisition payments during the quarter. The group’s net debt increased by €5.8m over the quarter to €32.6m. There is also a small pension deficit that we have included in our DCF valuation.
Exhibit 2: Balance sheet position
€m |
31-Dec-17 |
31-Mar-18 |
Cash |
(33.9) |
(24.3) |
Current financial liabilities |
11.2 |
7.4 |
Non-current financial liabilities |
49.5 |
49.5 |
Net debt/(cash) |
26.8 |
32.6 |
Pension deficit |
1.5 |
1.6 |
Adjusted net debt/(cash) |
28.4 |
34.2 |
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
|
|
€'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
Year end 31 December |
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Revenue |
|
|
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
151,249 |
165,297 |
179,476 |
Cost of sales |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Gross Profit |
|
|
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
151,249 |
165,297 |
179,476 |
EBITDA |
|
|
5,484 |
8,524 |
3,268 |
10,882 |
18,343 |
22,454 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
4,222 |
7,514 |
1,513 |
7,394 |
13,935 |
17,682 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
|
|
0 |
(657) |
(2,021) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
Exceptionals |
|
|
356 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Associates |
|
|
(3) |
8 |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Operating Profit |
|
|
4,575 |
6,865 |
(532) |
5,794 |
12,335 |
16,082 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(828) |
(1,137) |
(1,327) |
(1,200) |
(1,000) |
(800) |
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,394 |
6,377 |
186 |
6,194 |
12,935 |
16,882 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,747 |
5,728 |
(1,859) |
4,594 |
11,335 |
15,282 |
Tax |
|
|
(1,195) |
(1,517) |
(807) |
(1,858) |
(3,880) |
(5,065) |
Profit After Tax (norm) |
|
|
2,198 |
4,860 |
(620) |
4,336 |
9,054 |
11,817 |
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
2,552 |
4,211 |
(2,666) |
2,736 |
7,454 |
10,217 |
Minority interest |
|
|
0 |
(147) |
234 |
(267) |
(289) |
(312) |
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Net income (norm) |
|
|
2,198 |
4,713 |
(386) |
4,069 |
8,766 |
11,506 |
Net income (FRS 3) |
|
|
2,552 |
4,064 |
(2,431) |
2,469 |
7,166 |
9,906 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
|
|
3.7 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
109.7 |
(7.4) |
74.3 |
160.1 |
210.2 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
109.7 |
(7.4) |
74.3 |
160.1 |
210.2 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
68.3 |
94.6 |
(46.8) |
45.1 |
130.9 |
180.9 |
Dividend per share (c) |
|
|
34.00 |
39.00 |
0.00 |
30.00 |
40.00 |
50.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross Margin (%) |
|
|
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
EBITDA Margin (%) |
|
|
9.8 |
10.6 |
2.7 |
7.2 |
11.1 |
12.5 |
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
|
|
7.5 |
9.3 |
1.2 |
4.9 |
8.4 |
9.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Fixed Assets |
|
|
15,243 |
30,109 |
75,171 |
74,588 |
73,094 |
71,176 |
Intangible Assets |
|
|
11,675 |
24,179 |
67,012 |
65,380 |
63,748 |
62,115 |
Tangible Assets |
|
|
1,999 |
3,161 |
5,187 |
6,237 |
6,375 |
6,089 |
Other |
|
|
1,570 |
2,769 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
Current Assets |
|
|
29,996 |
58,424 |
78,614 |
75,032 |
80,124 |
89,626 |
Stocks |
|
|
0 |
371 |
371 |
459 |
502 |
545 |
Debtors |
|
|
16,084 |
25,652 |
43,781 |
54,125 |
59,152 |
64,226 |
Cash |
|
|
13,769 |
31,914 |
33,877 |
19,863 |
19,885 |
24,270 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(13,703) |
(32,631) |
(40,531) |
(50,324) |
(54,623) |
(58,900) |
Creditors |
|
|
(11,101) |
(14,523) |
(29,295) |
(39,088) |
(43,387) |
(47,664) |
Short term borrowings |
|
|
(2,602) |
(18,108) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(15,513) |
(7,327) |
(53,157) |
(41,083) |
(33,509) |
(25,935) |
Long term borrowings |
|
|
(12,344) |
(5,531) |
(49,487) |
(44,487) |
(39,487) |
(34,487) |
Other long term liabilities |
|
|
(3,169) |
(1,796) |
(3,670) |
3,404 |
5,978 |
8,552 |
Net Assets |
|
|
16,024 |
48,575 |
60,097 |
58,213 |
65,085 |
75,967 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,879 |
1,005 |
(5,316) |
10,159 |
17,548 |
21,589 |
Net Interest |
|
|
(167) |
53 |
(798) |
(1,200) |
(1,000) |
(800) |
Tax |
|
|
(554) |
(412) |
(1,366) |
(1,734) |
(3,622) |
(4,727) |
Capex |
|
|
(1,779) |
(3,451) |
(5,234) |
(4,537) |
(4,546) |
(4,487) |
Acquisitions/disposals |
|
|
(3,228) |
(5,923) |
(28,783) |
(11,701) |
(1,716) |
0 |
Shares issued |
|
|
0 |
30,129 |
18,293 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Dividends |
|
|
(483) |
(1,264) |
(1,932) |
0 |
(1,642) |
(2,190) |
Net Cash Flow |
|
|
(4,332) |
20,137 |
(25,136) |
(9,014) |
5,022 |
9,386 |
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
35,861 |
30,839 |
HP finance leases initiated |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other |
|
|
(275) |
(10,686) |
(9,985) |
0 |
0 |
() |
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
35,861 |
30,839 |
21,453 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes exceptional costs in FY17 and FY18. **Includes additional payments for Adepcon in FY18 and FY19, and final payments for RSP, Astrums/Hartung and Harlex in FY18.
Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com DISCLAIMER Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. 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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. 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