Lookers — New retail sales declined in Q3

Lookers (LN: LOOK)

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74.70

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Research: Industrials

Lookers — New retail sales declined in Q3

Lookers has issued a trading update indicating the performance of its new vehicle activities deteriorated as the important September selling month progressed. As a result, Q319 new car gross profit fell by £7m compared to the prior year. In addition, it has accelerated its site consolidation and closure plan to improve operational performance and will take a charge of £8m in H219. Despite robust performances by the higher-margin used car and aftersales segments, management cut its FY19 underlying PBT guidance by 50% to £20m. The CEO and COO are both stepping down with immediate effect. The interim executive team and full-time replacements need to focus on restoring internal and external confidence, as well as driving recovery in still-challenging markets.

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Industrials

Lookers

New retail sales declined in Q3

Trading update

Automotive retail

5 November 2019

Price

46.5p

Market cap

£181m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2019

73.9

Shares in issue

389.3m

Free float

83.4%

Code

LOOK

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(15.7)

13.9

(51.7)

Rel (local)

(15.4)

17.0

(53.1)

52-week high/low

108.00p

41.60p

Business description

Lookers is vying to be the largest UK motor vehicle retailer, with its new car operations supported by the strength of used and aftersales activities. It now operates 155 franchises, representing 32 marques from 100 sites around the UK, with strong regional presences in Northern Ireland, Scotland, the South East and across northern England.

Next events

FY19 results

March 2020

Analyst

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Lookers is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Lookers has issued a trading update indicating the performance of its new vehicle activities deteriorated as the important September selling month progressed. As a result, Q319 new car gross profit fell by £7m compared to the prior year. In addition, it has accelerated its site consolidation and closure plan to improve operational performance and will take a charge of £8m in H219. Despite robust performances by the higher-margin used car and aftersales segments, management cut its FY19 underlying PBT guidance by 50% to £20m. The CEO and COO are both stepping down with immediate effect. The interim executive team and full-time replacements need to focus on restoring internal and external confidence, as well as driving recovery in still-challenging markets.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

4,696.3

62.1

12.61

3.89

3.7

8.4

12/18**

4,879.5

50.0

9.95

4.08

4.7

8.8

12/19e

4,890.8

15.7

3.08

4.08

15.1

8.8

12/20e

5,006.7

16.4

3.22

4.08

14.4

8.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Restated for IFRS 16. All numbers use revised definition of adjusted PBT.

September new car sales disappoint

As the second largest selling month of the year for new cars in the UK, September is crucial to second-half performance. Management had been satisfied with advance orders, but additional sales failed to appear as the month progressed. The impact seems likely to be due to continuing political uncertainty undermining confidence, especially amongst consumers. Lookers’ Q319 like-for-like retail new car unit sales fell 11.5% (H119 -5.6%), with volume brands particularly affected. The £7m drop in gross profit is likely to reflect missed sales target performance payments from manufacturers, exacerbating the continued under-recovery of operational cost inflation that was evident in H119. Used car like-for-like sales and aftersales performance appear to have been more in line with management expectations. We have cut our FY19 and FY20 PBT and EPS forecasts by 52%.

Portfolio optimisation

The chairman Phil White and non-executive director Richard Walker are assuming interim executive responsibility. The board has accelerated its portfolio consolidation programme, working with its brand partners, and has earmarked 15 additional underperforming dealerships for closure, with potential relocation or consolidation into adjacent dealerships. The board expects £3m of annual financial benefit and Lookers should then have c £28m of freehold sites available for sale.

Valuation: Awaiting recovery in earnings

The multiple contraction that was apparent for Lookers in 2019 now appears justified by the drop in earnings. Clearly, as the company transitions to a new management team and despite challenging markets, there is scope for significant recovery in profits, although we take a cautious view of FY20.

Earnings revisions

In light of the trading update, we have revised our FY19 and FY20 earnings estimates as reflected in the table below:

Exhibit 1: Lookers earnings estimates revisions

Year to December (£m)

2019e

2020e

Prior

New

% change

Prior

New

% change

New

2,400.5

2,318.6

-3.4

2,463.4

2,323.6

-5.7

Used

1,920.0

1,997.6

4.0

1,996.8

2,077.5

4.0

Aftersales

446.3

458.7

2.8

459.7

486.2

5.8

Leasing

115.4

116.0

0.5

118.8

119.5

0.5

Sales

4,882.1

4,890.8

0.2

5,038.7

5,006.7

-0.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

79.7

81.7

2.4

82.9

84.0

1.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying EBITA

59.4

44.4

-25.4

61.9

45.7

-26.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying PBT

40.8

19.7

-51.8

42.7

20.4

-52.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS - underlying (p)

8.2

4.0

-51.8

8.6

4.1

-52.3

DPS (p)

4.08

4.08

0.0

4.20

4.08

-2.9

Net debt/(cash)

90.8

104.8

15.4

70.2

86.9

23.8

Source: Edison Investment Research

Management is also changing the way it presents adjusted profit numbers, no longer excluding charges for share-based payments, pension interest and debt issuance costs to adjust profit. This has no impact on reported numbers or cash flows, but does reduce adjusted PBT by c £5m when restating FY18 and by around £4m in our estimates for FY19 and FY20.

The further presentational revision is shown in the table below:

Exhibit 2: Further adjustments to presentation of underlying profits

Year to December (£m)

2019e

2020e

Prior

New

% change

Prior

New

% change

New

2,318.6

2,318.6

0.0%

2,323.6

2,323.6

0.0%

Used

1,997.6

1,997.6

0.0%

2,077.5

2,077.5

0.0%

Aftersales

458.7

458.7

0.0%

486.2

486.2

0.0%

Leasing

116.0

116.0

0.0%

119.5

119.5

0.0%

Sales

4,890.8

4,890.8

0.0%

5,006.7

5,006.7

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

81.7

81.7

0.0%

84.0

84.0

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying EBITA*

44.4

44.4

0.0%

45.7

45.7

0.0%

Underlying operating profit

44.4

42.6

-4.1% 

45.7

43.9

-3.9% 

Underlying PBT

19.7

15.7

-20.4%

20.4

16.4

-19.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS - underlying continuing (p)

3.96

3.08

-22.4%

4.11

3.22

-21.7%

DPS (p)

4.08

4.08

0.0%

4.08

4.08

0.0%

Net debt/(cash)

104.8

104.8

0.0%

86.9

86.9

0.0%

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Before share-based payment charge.

Q3 trading

While overall Lookers’ Q319 like-for-like new car unit sales fell by 3.2% compared to a market decline of just 0.6%, its retail new car sales dropped 11.5%, with volume brands particularly affected. The £7m drop in gross profit is likely to reflect missed sales target performance payments from manufacturers, exacerbating the continued under-recovery of operational cost inflation that was evident in H119. Used car like-for-like sales were up 2.6% with gross margins recovering some of the 60bp decline seen in H119. Aftersales increased its Q319 gross profit by 2.9%. Overall guidance for FY20 PBT guidance has been halved.

The board has identified 15 additional sites for closure, which may be relocated and consolidated with dealerships in adjacent regions. An additional charge of £8m will be taken in H219 against these portfolio adjustments, of which £2m will be non-cash items. The elimination of the losses at these underperforming sites together with improved operational efficiency from increased throughput at the existing enlarged dealerships should provide an annual benefit to profit of around £3m. In addition, nine of the additional sites are freehold properties, which together with four currently surplus sites should raise proceeds of around £28m, a modest profit over book value.

Both the CEO and the COO have stepped down with immediate effect. The new CFO, Mark Raban, who only joined in August, remains and brings experience from Marshall Motor Holdings to the group. While the board searches for a new executive team, the chairman Phil White and Richard Walker, a non-executive director, are to assume interim executive responsibility for the group’s operations.

Outlook

The guidance for £20m of underlying PBT in FY19 implies the group makes a loss of £9m in H219. The main issue appears to revolve around the new car segment, where performance bonuses from some manufacturers for meeting sales targets appear to have been missed, compounded by lower sales of financial products due to the lower volumes of cars sold. We assume these factors persist in Q4 given the magnitude of the forecast reduction. We note most companies have indicated that brand partners are being helpful in the challenging market backdrop, so our reasoning for the profit drop may be erroneous. We therefore believe that even with site consolidations and stronger cost control measures, the company is unlikely to see dramatically improved performance in FY20. Of course, UK car markets could pick up in the wake of the general election and whatever the Brexit outcome eventually is but, given the current lack of confidence, it seems unduly ambitious to predict that.

In light of this and the weaker trading, the board is likely to at least review the dividend level given the lack of earnings cover, even on an adjusted basis, in both FY19 and FY20.

It should also be noted the FCA has now started it investigation into the sales processes of Lookers’ regulated activities. As the potential outcome of this is unknown, including any financial penalties that may arise, this has yet to be included in our forecasts.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£m

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

4,696.3

4,879.5

4,890.8

5,006.7

Cost of Sales

(4,192.2)

(4,364.0)

(4,382.1)

(4,486.0)

Gross Profit

504.1

515.5

508.6

520.7

EBITDA

 

 

103.7

113.1

79.9

82.2

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

83.0

82.2

48.3

49.3

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

(5.6)

(5.7)

(5.4)

Exceptionals

(3.7)

(1.4)

(15.0)

(3.0)

Other

(4.6)

(2.2)

(2.2)

(2.2)

Operating Profit

74.7

73.0

25.3

38.6

Net Interest

(16.3)

(18.3)

(18.6)

(19.2)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

62.1

50.0

15.7

16.4

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

58.4

48.6

0.7

13.4

Tax

(10.5)

(8.8)

(0.4)

(2.7)

Profit After Tax (norm)

51.6

41.0

12.5

13.1

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

47.9

39.8

0.2

10.6

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

397.3

393.4

389.2

389.2

EPS

 

 

12.99

10.41

3.22

3.37

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

12.61

9.95

3.08

3.22

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

12.06

10.12

0.06

2.73

Dividend per share (p)

3.89

4.08

4.08

4.08

Gross Margin (%)

10.7

10.6

10.4

10.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

2.2

2.3

1.6

1.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

1.8

1.7

1.0

1.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

563.2

668.6

671.2

657.9

Intangible Assets

221.2

230.8

230.1

229.7

Tangible Assets

342.0

350.9

363.5

358.8

Right of use asset

86.9

77.7

69.5

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

1,332.4

1,313.8

1,308.6

1,335.0

Stocks

984.1

1,027.7

1,027.1

1,030.4

Debtors

303.0

233.7

232.1

235.2

Cash

45.3

44.4

49.4

69.4

Other

0.0

8.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,247.7)

(1,238.4)

(1,226.3)

(1,242.8)

Creditors

(1,228.1)

(1,235.8)

(1,226.3)

(1,242.8)

Short term borrowings

(19.6)

(2.6)

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(262.9)

(367.2)

(392.4)

(394.2)

Long term borrowings

(123.5)

(128.7)

(154.2)

(156.3)

Other long term liabilities

(139.4)

(128.3)

(128.0)

(127.7)

Net Assets

 

 

385.0

376.8

361.2

355.9

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

65.9

90.2

51.2

75.1

Net Interest

(17.6)

(16.3)

(18.3)

(18.6)

Tax

(10.5)

(8.8)

(0.4)

(2.7)

Capex

(54.2)

(33.6)

(34.3)

(20.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1.3)

(13.7)

0.0

0.0

Financing

0.0

(9.3)

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(15.0)

(15.6)

(16.0)

(15.9)

Other

9.0

18.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(23.7)

10.9

(17.9)

17.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

74.1

97.8

86.9

104.8

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

97.8

86.9

104.8

86.9

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates. Note: FY18 restated following adoption of IFRS 16 from FY19.


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Lookers and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Lookers. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This report has been commissioned by Lookers and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Lookers. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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VietNam Holding — Das umstrukturierte Unternehmen bietet neue Möglichkeiten

VietNam Holding (VNH) setzt sich zum Ziel, einen langfristigen Kapitalzuwachs zu erzielen, was primär durch Investitionen in börsennotierten Unternehmen in Vietnam erfolgt. Der Fonds kann darüber hinaus in nicht börsennotierte Unternehmen investieren, wobei es sich in der Praxis um Unternehmen handelt, die über zeitnahe und ersichtliche Pläne verfügen, börsennotierte Unternehmen zu werden. Der Fonds war seit September 2017 erheblichen Änderungen ausgesetzt, wozu auch die Bestellung eines neuen Vorstands und Managers in Form von Dynam Capital Limited zählen. Diese Änderungen wurden implementiert, um die Governance-Probleme, die mit dem vorherigen Vorstand und Manager im Zusammenhang stehen, zu bewältigen, da diese zum übermäßigen Abschlag gegenüber dem NAV von VNH beigetragen haben. Vietnams mittel- bis langfristige Konjunkturaussichten zählen zu den positivsten im gesamten Asien-Pazifik-Raum, weshalb das umstrukturierte VNH für Investoren, die an dem rapiden Wachstum des Landes teilhaben möchten, von Interesse sein könnte.

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