Company description: Brazilian business, global portfolio
OCN is an investment company based in Bermuda with two main assets: a controlling interest in Wilson Sons, a quoted Brazilian maritime services company; and an international investment portfolio held in its Ocean Wilsons Investments (OWIL) subsidiary. OCN is managed with a long-term view, which has enabled WSON to complete a significant programme of capital investment, while the international portfolio is also managed with the objective of producing long-term capital growth.
OCN has a 58.25% holding in Wilson Sons, which was fully owned by OCN before its initial public offering in May 2007. Wilson Sons has a free float of 41.75%, including 14.5% owned by funds managed by Aberdeen Asset Management. The IPO was a means of creating a transparent valuation for Wilson Sons while the proceeds were invested, constituting the majority of the assets in OWIL’s international portfolio, which in turn provides diversification for holders of OCN. The structure of the business is illustrated in Exhibit 3.
Exhibit 3: Ocean Wilsons’ corporate structure
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Wilson Sons: Ports, maritime and logistics services
Wilson Sons is among Brazil’s largest and oldest port, maritime and logistics services companies. Within the port and logistics area are the container terminals, oil and gas support base and logistics activities. Under the maritime services heading are towage, shipyards and a 50% share in a JV operating offshore support vessels for the oil and gas industry.
Exhibit 4: Revenue analysis (2015)
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Exhibit 5: EBITDA analysis (2015)
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Source: Wilson Sons. Note: *Offshore is pro forma share of JV.
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Exhibit 4: Revenue analysis (2015)
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Exhibit 5: EBITDA analysis (2015)
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Source: Wilson Sons. Note: *Offshore is pro forma share of JV.
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Exhibit 5 shows a divisional analysis of revenue and EBITDA: the largest contributors have been container terminals and towage. These divisions accounted for 58% of revenues and 70% of EBITDA from 2008 to 2015 (excluding corporate costs). Their revenue is driven by the volume of containers moved and the number of manoeuvres performed respectively. They are therefore sensitive to the volume rather than the value of trade (both international and domestic) that passes through Brazil. Directly oil and gas related businesses (the Brasco terminal and the offshore vessels JV) accounted for about 22% of EBITDA over the period. While these activities may be affected by the oil price (and to a lesser extent by the troubles of Petrobras), the effect is mitigated by having long-term contracts primarily supporting oil and gas production rather than exploration.
Wilson Sons operates the Rio Grande do Sul and Salvador container terminals in the south and north-east of Brazil respectively. The concession contracts are for 25 years, renewable for a further 25 years. In the case of Rio Grande, the option for renewal to operate between 2022 and 2047 is explicit in the amended contract signed by the state government and the delegated port authority as a result of Wilson Sons’ investment in the third berth at the terminal in 2007/08. For Salvador, the company continues exclusive discussions with the relevant government authorities for the renewal of the right to operate between 2025 and 2050 and believes satisfactory agreement on this renewal will be reached in due course. At both ports international trade makes up around 70% of the volume of full containers (which are more valuable to move), with Rio Grande having a higher proportion of exports. Recent relative dollar strength has been good for export volumes but weighed on imports; however, cabotage (domestic shipping trade) has benefited from increased use of this transport mode and growth in domestic consumption.
Both ports also have upgrade plans, with Salvador securing the first stage of approval for an increase in capacity at the end of last year. The timing of final approval is unpredictable, but eventually the company reports there is the potential to double the port’s capacity for a cost of approximately US$125m. This would take its handling capacity to nearly 1.1m TEU compared with 1.35m for Rio Grande, which itself has space for expansion that may help it continue to attract traffic from other large southern Brazilian (and Uruguayan) ports over the long term. Given that both ports were operating at about 55% of capacity in 2015 and that the company indicates capital expenditure is likely to remain low in the next few years, the expansion opportunities are an indicator of the capacity for secular growth rather than a signal for near-term investment plans.
Wilson Sons operates the largest tug fleet in Brazil with 75 (at end 2015) modern, mostly azimuth propulsion boats operating in all the major Brazilian ports and executing 50% of all manoeuvres in Brazilian ports in 2015. Apart from moving ships, tugs perform special operations such as firefighting, salvage and ocean towage. These command higher rates and margins, and have on average contributed 14% of the division’s revenues since 2008. Consolidation of shipping lines and the trend to larger ships have tended to slow the growth in the number of harbour manoeuvres, but increased the average deadweight towed at a compound rate of 3.9% CAGR between 2008 and 2015, supporting revenue growth. Owning its own shipyards provides an advantage in acquiring new tugs and in fleet maintenance. All domestic Brazilian operators enjoy regulatory protection and long-term, low-cost finance from the Fundo de Marinha Mercante (FMM). These benefits seem unlikely to change.
Oil and gas terminal (Brasco)
Brasco operates a port terminal that services oil platforms. It buys, stores and delivers parts, consumables and food, and processes waste. The acquisition of Briclog in 2013 provided scope to expand capacity, the uptake of which may be slow in 2016 due to the oil industry backdrop. In the longer term, as Brazil’s large pre-salt reserves are more fully exploited, demand for the extra capacity should grow.
Offshore support vessels (OSVs)
Wilson Sons UltraTug Offshore (WSUT), a 50:50 JV with Ultramar, a Chilean offshore services company, has a fleet of 19 OSVs, which will increase to 23 in 2016. Regulatory protection and low-cost finance exist, similar to those enjoyed by the towage business and the group’s shipyard facilities are also of benefit to the OSV business. The fleet transports machine parts, consumables and other supplies to offshore oil and gas production and exploration operations in Brazilian waters. It operates under contracts with Petrobras, which have an average unexpired term of four years.
Petrobras’s future plans are not certain, although it will continue to focus on production and exploration of the pre-salt reserves (already 36% of Brazil’s oil production). The remaining contract duration provides good revenue visibility for WSUT and two of the three new vessels to be delivered in 2016 have secured long-term operating contracts. WSUT took delivery of one new vessel in Q415 and expects four more in 2016. In December WSUT recontracted three vessels for two years, demonstrating confidence in demand. As with Brasco, although near-term growth may be muted as a result of the low oil price, in the longer term development of pre-salt oil production seems likely to generate growth for WSUT.
Shipyards, logistics and agency
The shipyards in Brazil’s biggest port of Santos are well-placed for the construction and maintenance of OSVs due to their proximity to the Santos and Campos oil basins. The order book at the end of 2015 was six tugboats for Wilson Sons and four OSVs for third parties (two of them for WSUT). Two more contracts have been signed in 2016 for tugboats to be delivered to third parties with options for four more. Including these options, the order book amounted to nearly $69m. In the immediate future, the business will also be seeking to win maintenance work to sustain activity levels and controlling costs to protect margins.
The logistics division includes distribution centres, transport and bonded warehousing with a focus on the latter. The depreciation of the real affected the bonded warehousing business as a result of reduced imports, while the withdrawal from low-margin dedicated operations has contributed to reduced revenues.
Agency is the longest-established business line for Wilson Sons and operates in Brazil’s main ports. It makes up a small part of the group and has had reduced revenues recently as shipping lines have taken the function in-house.
Revenue and EBITDA progression
Exhibit 6 below shows the development of revenues and EBITDA since 2008 including WSUT on a pro forma basis. The period shown includes the global financial crisis and Brazil’s own worsening difficulties over the last two years. Since 2013 revenue has fallen 22% in dollar terms, although with the benefit of c 48% dollar-denominated revenues, costs primarily in Brazilian reals and internal operating efficiencies, the company managed to marginally increase EBITDA. Towage and offshore made the biggest contributions to growth and since 2008 EBITDA has grown at a compound rate of 7.9%. For a discussion of Wilson Sons’ Q116 results see page 7.
Exhibit 6: Wilson Sons revenue and EBITDA analysis (US$m)
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2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
Divisional net revenues |
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Container Terminals |
155.5 |
148.7 |
178.8 |
203.5 |
189.5 |
227.4 |
189.6 |
152.5 |
O&G Terminal (Brasco) |
15.0 |
26.7 |
49.2 |
68.3 |
37.9 |
42.7 |
39.0 |
23.5 |
Towage |
147.1 |
145.7 |
156.2 |
167.4 |
179.1 |
196.6 |
211.0 |
213.8 |
Shipyards |
52.5 |
27.4 |
43.3 |
56.7 |
61.8 |
100.3 |
103.4 |
53.9 |
Shipping Agency |
17.6 |
15.2 |
17.6 |
20.3 |
24.6 |
24.5 |
17.1 |
15.4 |
Logistics |
89.3 |
75.8 |
102.4 |
140.5 |
108.2 |
96.8 |
73.4 |
49.9 |
Corporate |
(0.3) |
0.2 |
0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Offshore* |
21.6 |
38.1 |
28 |
41.4 |
47.0 |
54.4 |
76.9 |
71.0 |
Total |
498.3 |
477.8 |
575.5 |
698.0 |
647.9 |
742.8 |
710.4 |
579.9 |
Divisional EBITDA |
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Container Terminals |
60.6 |
49 |
61.4 |
74.6 |
75.4 |
75.5 |
74.4 |
66.9 |
O&G Terminal (Brasco) |
2.8 |
9.3 |
14.9 |
16.7 |
9.3 |
10.7 |
11.3 |
5.8 |
Towage |
54.5 |
61.3 |
53.4 |
61.4 |
62.4 |
74.6 |
85.8 |
101.3 |
Shipyards |
6.2 |
9.9 |
6.1 |
15.3 |
14.0 |
21.8 |
13.3 |
8.6 |
Shipping Agency |
3.3 |
2.3 |
0.8 |
2.7 |
4.9 |
4.1 |
0.8 |
3.7 |
Logistics |
6.6 |
7.1 |
13.1 |
24.5 |
13.2 |
18.2 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
Corporate |
(24.2) |
(29.7) |
(41.5) |
(43.1) |
(38.1) |
(22.2) |
(28.4) |
(21.1) |
Offshore* |
12.9 |
19.2 |
13.1 |
11.3 |
1,6.0 |
23.1 |
39.2 |
40.4 |
Total |
122.7 |
128.4 |
121.3 |
163.3 |
157.1 |
205.9 |
199.3 |
208.5 |
Source: Wilson Sons. Note: *Offshore is pro forma share of JV.
Ocean Wilsons Investments (OWIL)
Hanseatic Asset Management manages OWIL’s investment portfolio on an unconstrained global basis, aiming to achieve long-term returns while emphasising capital preservation. The manager seeks to achieve this objective by allocating between three silos: (1) core regional funds that form the core of the portfolio, aiming to capture the natural long-term growth in these markets; (2) an eclectic sector silo that gives exposure to selected areas seen as having strong long-term growth characteristics, such as biotechnology and technology; and (3) an eclectic diversifying silo including sectors that will provide an element of protection to the portfolio as the business cycle matures.
Four types of investment are made: public equities; private assets (mainly private equity); market neutral funds; and bonds. Cash is managed with a view to meeting commitments to future investments (such as private equity). The manager is more concerned about absolute loss of capital than short-term underperformance and the benchmark is absolute rather than relative (US CPI plus 3% over rolling three-year periods). The manager expects most investments to be in equity given the long-term investment horizon and to be either through collective funds or limited partnerships, using Hanseatic’s network to access the best opportunities through expert managers in specialised sectors and markets.
Manager selection is regarded as the key to successful management of the portfolio. Managers are initially considered after a search for exposure to a particular market or sector, a referral from the investment manager’s network or after introductions through sell-side relationships. The investment manager favours active specialist managers who can demonstrate an ability to add value over the long term and who invest on conviction rather than to meet short-term targets. Excessive size may be an impediment to outperformance so there is a bias towards managers who will restrict assets under management to suit the underlying opportunity. Qualitative considerations are important in the selection process, including assessment of the integrity, skill and motivation of a fund manager, as well as normal performance, risk assessment and legal checks. Once an investment has been made, regular reviews are conducted to monitor ongoing compatibility with the portfolio, signs of style-drift or changes of personnel.
The portfolio has similarities with the endowment model: an emphasis on real returns, a perpetual time horizon and broad diversification, while avoiding assets with low expected returns (such as government bonds currently). The investment manager believes that illiquid assets such as private equity offer outsized returns given less efficient pricing, so the outperformance of better managers is greater. As Exhibit 7 shows, the portfolio has a significant private equity component, although global equities account for more than half the total. The manager notes that the portfolio retains an overweight position in emerging markets, which accounted for 32% of net assets at the 2015 year end (34% prior year). An analysis of the geographical disposition of the top 30 funds is shown in Exhibit 8.
Exhibit 7: OWIL portfolio by investment type (2015)
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Exhibit 8: OWIL top 30 holdings by geography (2015)
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Exhibit 7: OWIL portfolio by investment type (2015)
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Exhibit 8: OWIL top 30 holdings by geography (2015)
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In 2015 OWIL returned 1% following a strong fourth quarter, which saw a return of 1.7%. While this lagged the absolute benchmark of US CPI plus 3%, which was up 3.7% in 2015, it was ahead of world and emerging market equity indices. The MSCI All Country World Index and MSCI EM Index were down by 2.4% and 14.9%, respectively. The performance demonstrated the benefits of diversification: European investments with low energy and commodity exposure performed well, as did the short portfolios of some US funds and some US private equity funds performed well too. These offset a bad year for commodities and emerging markets as well as the effect of exposure to Valeant Pharmaceuticals through Pershing Square Holdings. In its quarterly update in May, Ocean Wilsons reported that the portfolio value was $239.5m, 1.9% below the end-2015 value.