Petro Matad — Oil established in Block XX

Petro Matad — Oil established in Block XX

Petro Matad is now drilling Gazelle-1, the final well of its 2019 three-well exploration and appraisal campaign in Block XX, in Mongolia. Results are expected during October, alongside test results from the successful Heron-1 well. In the south-west of the block, the riskiest well in the programme, Red Deer-1, did not encounter hydrocarbons. We update our valuation on the back of results from the two first wells of the campaign. Red Deer, previously valued at 2.8p/share has been removed from our sum of the parts. We have de-risked Heron to a 68% chance of commercial success vs 45% in our last note. We now value the asset at 4.9p/share and will update the probability of success once the well test results are announced. Our risked valuation, post assumed farm-out value dilution, is updated to 20.1p/share (down 7%) at $70/bbl long-term Brent, which we expect to revisit after drilling Gazelle-1 and well testing Heron-1.

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Written by

Petro Matad

Oil established in Block XX

Drilling results

Oil & gas

27 September 2019

Price

5p

Market cap

£32m

US$1.29/£

Net cash ($m) at 30 June 2018
(includes $12.3m financial assets))

16.1

Shares in issue

662.2m

Free float

81.9%

Code

MATD

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(41.6)

(30.4)

(15.0)

Rel (local)

(43.6)

(30.2)

(12.9)

52-week high/low

8.85p

1.95p

Business description

Petro Matad is a pure-play Mongolian exploration company with a 100% equity interest in Blocks IV, V and XX. Management is drilling three exploration and appraisal wells in 2019, targeting low-risk prospects in Block XX.

Next events

Heron-1 testing

October 2019

Gazelle-1 result

October 2019

Analysts

Carlos Gomes

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Elaine Reynolds

+44 (0)20 3077 5713

Petro Matad is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Petro Matad is now drilling Gazelle-1, the final well of its 2019 three-well exploration and appraisal campaign in Block XX, in Mongolia. Results are expected during October, alongside test results from the successful Heron-1 well. In the south-west of the block, the riskiest well in the programme, Red Deer-1, did not encounter hydrocarbons. We update our valuation on the back of results from the two first wells of the campaign. Red Deer, previously valued at 2.8p/share has been removed from our sum of the parts. We have de-risked Heron to a 68% chance of commercial success vs 45% in our last note. We now value the asset at 4.9p/share and will update the probability of success once the well test results are announced. Our risked valuation, post assumed farm-out value dilution, is updated to 20.1p/share (down 7%) at $70/bbl long-term Brent, which we expect to revisit after drilling Gazelle-1 and well testing Heron-1.

Year
end

Operating
cash flow ($m)

PBT*
($m)

Net cash**
($m)

Capex
($m)

EBITDA
($m)

12/17

(2.5)

(9.9)

8.1

(0.1)

(9.7)

12/18

(19.6)

(18.5)

21.3

(0.1)

(18.2)

12/19e

(4.8)

(5.0)

5.5

(11.0)

(5.0)

12/20e

(5.0)

(5.0)

0.5

(5.0)

(5.0)

Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Including financial assets.

Gazelle-1 looks to build on Heron-1 success

Gazelle-1 sits to the west of Heron-1 in a region on trend with existing Block XIX production, targeting 13mmbbls. Meanwhile, testing on Heron-1, which established a 77m gross oil-bearing interval in a structure proven productive in adjacent Block XIX, is due to commence in October. Sections of better than typical Lower Tsagaantsav reservoir identified in the well could point to improved deliverability.

Low threshold for commerciality

The low well costs and attractive fiscal terms that enable cost recovery provide an attractive risk/reward in Mongolia. Petro China’s current production from Blocks XIX and XXI demonstrates commercial oil production and the presence of spare capacity at the existing nearby infrastructure should allow for rapid commercialisation in the case of success. Based on our analysis, the threshold for commerciality at Block XX is low, with development of small discoveries (c 10mmbbl) generating an IRR in excess of 10%.

Valuation: Base case risked at 20.1p/share

Our updated base case risked valuation assumes a 50% value dilution through farm-down. We have removed Red Deer from our sum of the parts and de-risked Heron to a 68% chance of commercial success. Our risked valuation post assumed farm-out value dilution is updated to 20.1p/share (-7%) at $70/bbl long-term Brent, which we expect to revisit post-drill of Gazelle-1 and Heron-1 well test. Petro Matad is fully funded for 2019 and we assume a farm-down to fund future development. However, further issues of equity at the current share price could be significantly dilutive to our per-share valuation.

Oil encountered in Heron-1

Petro Matad is currently drilling Gazelle-1, the third and final well in its 2019 exploration and appraisal campaign focused on Block XX in eastern Mongolia. The first well, Heron-1, encountered a 77m gross potential oil reservoir and is due to be tested during October. This was followed by Red Deer-1, in the south of the block, which did not encounter hydrocarbons and is being plugged and abandoned. The company is returning to the north of the block and on trend with existing production in Block XIX with the drilling of Gazelle-1. Results from this well are also expected during October.

Heron-1: Testing during October

Heron-1 was an appraisal of the Petro China-operated T19-46-3 well, located immediately to the north in Block XIX and identified to be sitting in the same structure. Petro Matad believes that the bulk of the 13km2 structure extends into Block XX and the well was targeting mean prospective resources of 25mmbbls in the Lower Tsagaantsav reservoir.

Exhibit 1: Regional depth map with Heron-1 and Gazelle-1 locations

Source: Petro Matad

The well encountered a 77m gross interval of potential oil reservoir, based on log interpretation, within which three zones, totalling 22m (gross), exhibited better porosity and permeability characteristics than typically seen in the Lower Tsagaantsav. Testing is due to commence in early October and to be completed within the month. In the case of success, there is potential to bring the well onstream soon via Petro China’s central processing facility, located 20km to the north.

 

Gazelle-1: Updip of proven oil

Gazelle-1 was spudded on 19 September and is expected to take around 35 days to reach a TD of around 2,500m (including logging). The exploration well is located 4.5km south-west of Petro China’s T19-46-1 oil well and to the west of Heron-1. Gazelle-1 sits updip of T19-46-1 on the western flank of the Tamsag Basin and is on trend with the best producing wells in Block XIX. Reservoir quality has been observed to improve westwards in Block XIX, and should therefore be favourable for Gazelle-1.

Exhibit 2: Gazelle-1 schematic

Source: Petro Matad

The well is targeting mean prospective recoverable resources of 13mmbbls. However, this is based on the structural trap and there is potential for further upside in the stratigraphically trapped part of the accumulation. In the event of success, the company expects to be able to complete well testing operations before the winter shutdown of operations in late November.

Red Deer-1

Red Deer-1 was drilled in an undrilled basin in the southern part of Block XX, around 100km to the south-west of existing Petro China production. The well encountered a thick interval of good-quality sandstones, but no hydrocarbons were present. Preliminary analysis suggests that source rocks could be present shallower in the drilled section, but that they are not fully mature for hydrocarbon generation. The well was drilled on budget at less than $4m and has been plugged and abandoned.

 


Valuation

Our valuation of Petro Matad is based on risked value for the company’s drill-ready and committed prospects in Block XX and Block V. Details of the prospects are provided above. We calculate economics per unit volume ($/boe) using modelled company development plans for Block XX and Block V. Changes in economics per unit volume since our last note are driven by an updated near-term price deck.

Exhibit 3: Oil price realisation estimates

Petro Matad realised oil price

New

($/bbl)

Old

($/bbl)

Difference

(%)

2019

65.15

69.64

(6.4%)

2020

65.00

67.00

(3.0%)

2021

67.46

68.48

(1.5%)

2022

70.00

70.00

0.0%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Our unit values are shown below and are driven by discovery size (for more details, see our outlook note published on 28 January 2019).

Exhibit 4: Block V and Block XX unit NPV12.5

Source: Edison Investment Research

In our base case valuation, shown below, we typically include elements of dilution, of which investors need to be mindful of when investing in the small-cap E&P sector:

While we do not currently include equity dilution through a future fund-raise, this has the potential to be significantly dilutive to our per-share NAV valuation.

We include asset-level working interest dilution through the farm-down of discoveries made during the exploration phase.

Apart from the already mentioned price deck update, we have updated our capex assumption for the 2019/20 well programme to $16m from $15m to account for Red Deer-1 costs of $4m, previously estimated at $3m. We have also removed the value estimated for Red Deer and updated our valuation for Heron by de-risking the chance of commercial success. We will update our risking assumptions for the asset, post-well test. Reserves estimates remain in line with our previous note (there has been no subsequent update from the company).

Exhibit 5: Petro Matad base case valuation

Recoverable reserves

Net risked value

Risked value per share

Asset

Country

Diluted WI

Pc*

Gross

Net

NPV12.5/boe

NPV12.5

12.5%

10.0%

15.0%

%

%

mmboe

mmboe

$/boe

$m

p/share

p/share

p/share

Net cash at end 2018

2.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

Financial assets - end 2018

19.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

SG&A - NPV12.5 of 3yrs

(11.9)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

2019/20 committed prospects

(16.0)

(1.9)

(1.9)

(1.9)

Core NAV

(6.6)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Exploration

Block XX - Heron 2019

Mongolia

50%**

68%

25.0

12.5

4.9

41.7

4.9

6.0

4.0

Block XX - Gazelle 2019

Mongolia

50%**

36%

13.0

6.5

4.9

11.6

1.4

1.7

1.1

Block V - Velociraptor 2020

Mongolia

50%**

15%

200.0

100.0

8.4

125.7

14.7

18.0

12.0

Exploration NAV

286.0

143.0

179.0

20.9

25.6

17.1

RENAV

286.0

143.0

173.3

20.1

24.9

16.4

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Pc = Pg x Pe. Pg assumed at 75% for Heron, 40% for Gazelle, 20% for Velociraptor. Pe assumed to be 90% for Block XX and 75% for Block V. **Reflects value retained after assumed development farm-down. Number of shares = 662m, FX: US$/£1.29.

The waterfall chart below provides a breakdown of our risked valuation prior to farm-down at 41.0p/share, followed by what it could look like post farm-down. Our updated base case valuation of 20.1p/share (-7%) is on the basis of a $70/bbl Brent long-term (2022) oil price and 50% asset-level value dilution through farm-down (see Appendix A for further details of our farm-down framework).

Exhibit 6: RENAV waterfall and post-funding risked valuation range (NPV12.5)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

Petro Matad closed FY18 with $2.1m in cash and $19.2m in financial assets, enough to cover its four-well 2019/20 exploration and appraisal campaign. It ended H119 with $16.1m in net cash. Additional funding would be required to commit to an exploration programme and to support group G&A beyond 2020. We assume a short-term debt facility for the initial two years of development (2021–22).

We have updated our capex assumption of $15m for the 2019/20 well programme to $16m to account for Red Deer costs of $4m. The remaining wells are estimated at $3m for Heron, $3m for Gazelle, $4m for Velociraptor and $2m for geological studies. These costs include contingency but exclude overheads and PSC costs.


Exhibit 7: Financial summary

 

 

$m

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year-end: December

 

 

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

0.2

0.6

0.0

0.0

Cost of Sales

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Profit

0.2

0.6

0.0

0.0

EBITDA

 

 

(9.7)

(18.2)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(9.9)

(18.4)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

(9.9)

(18.4)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Net Interest

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(9.9)

(18.5)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(9.9)

(18.5)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(9.9)

(18.5)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(9.9)

(18.5)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

308.5

571.8

662.2

662.2

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.1)

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

 

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.1)

(0.1)

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

100.0

100.0

N/A-

N/A-

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A-

N/A-

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A-

N/A-

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

15.9

15.6

26.6

31.6

Intangible Assets

15.3

15.3

15.3

15.3

Tangible Assets

0.6

0.3

11.3

16.3

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

8.6

21.7

5.7

0.7

Stocks

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

Debtors

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Cash

5.1

2.1

5.5

0.5

Financial assets

3.0

19.2

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(3.4)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

Creditors

(3.4)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

0.0

0.0

0.0

(5.0)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

0.0

0.0

0.0

(5.0)

Net Assets

 

 

21.1

36.0

31.0

26.0

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(2.5)

(19.6)

(4.8)

(5.0)

Net Interest

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Capex*

(0.1)

(0.1)

(11.0)

(5.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

4.2

32.8

0.0

5.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

1.6

13.2

(15.8)

(5.0)

Opening net debt/(cash)**

 

 

(6.5)

(8.1)

(21.3)

(5.5)

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)**

 

 

(8.1)

(21.3)

(5.5)

(0.5)

Source: Edison Investment Research, Petro Matad accounts. Note: *Farm-in proceeds to cover capex beyond 2020. **Including financial assets.


Appendix A

We use a farm-down framework when valuing E&P assets that are not self-funded through to first oil. In general, the extent of value dilution we assume through farm-down decreases as asset certainty and risks decrease, as shown in Exhibit 8. Given the current uncertainty with regard to unrisked resource size, productivity, oil quality and costs, we use a generic assumption of 50% value dilution (stage 2 of our framework) for Petro Matad, which we intend to refine post-drill.

Exhibit 8: Edison E&P farm-down framework

Source: Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Petro Matad and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Petro Matad. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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This report has been commissioned by Petro Matad and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Petro Matad. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Brady — New strategic plan, new sales expected FY20

Following its August trading update highlighting a slowdown in new sales, Brady’s interim results were in line with our expectations. H119 revenue was £9.5m, a 9% fall vs H118, with an EBITDA loss of £1.8m and a PBT loss of £2.5m. Net cash fell to £1.0m from £4.6m at FY18. Recurring revenues represented 82% of total revenues. The new CEO has completed her strategic review and management is focused on delivering a more scalable, predictable and sustainable business to allow the company to become the leading independent E/CTRM vendor. The commodities sector remains attractive and as and when Brady demonstrates renewed sales momentum, it should become a compelling investment, currently trading on an FY19e EV/sales multiple of 1.1x.

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