Canacol Energy — On track to meet guidance

Canacol Energy (TSX: CNE)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

CAD6.45

−0.40 (−5.84%)

Market capitalisation

220m

More on this equity

Research: Energy & Resources

Canacol Energy — On track to meet guidance

On 5 July Canacol Energy issued an operating update that included gas sales and drilling results. June 2023 gas sales were 186mmcf/day, down from 199mmcf/day last year, but within guidance. Management also explained progress at the Lulo-2 and Chimela-1 wells. This confirms the company is on track to meet guidance.

Written by

Peter Hitchens

Energy & Resources

Canacol Energy

On track to meet guidance

Operational update

Oil and gas

7 July 2023

Price

C$10.55

Market cap

C$359m

Net debt (US$m) at 31 March 2023

472

Shares in issue

34.1m

Free float

67%

Code

CNE

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

BVC

Share price performance

Business description

Canacol Energy is a Colombia-based exploration and production company that is focused on natural gas. The company is the largest independent onshore gas producer and supplies approximately 20% of Colombia’s gas needs.

Analyst

Peter Hitchens

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Canacol Energy is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

On 5 July Canacol Energy issued an operating update that included gas sales and drilling results. June 2023 gas sales were 186mmcf/day, down from 199mmcf/day last year, but within guidance. Management also explained progress at the Lulo-2 and Chimela-1 wells. This confirms the company is on track to meet guidance.

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

EBITDAX*
(US$m)

Cash flow
(US$m)

Net debt
(US$m)

Capex
(US$m)

Yield
(%)

12/22

336

198

185

438

(180)

9.9

12/23e

351

218

190

481

(150)

9.9

12/24e

364

217

197

503

(160)

9.9

12/25e

530

365

301

486

(180)

9.9

Note: *Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and exploration write-off.

Canacol has announced that it achieved gas sales of 186mmcf/day in June 2023, which is down from 199mmcf/day in June last year but in line with sales in May and Q123. This should be put in the context of management guidance for 2023 (with final results in March) of 160–206mmcf/day. With potential water shortages affecting hydroelectric generation due to the El Niño effect that is starting to develop, we believe production could move higher in the second half of the year. Our forecasts are based on sales of 186mmcf/day.

Canacol also updated the market on its drilling programme. The Lulo-2 appraisal well tested at 24mmcf/day and follows the Lulo-1 appraisal well, which flowed at 22mmcf/day. This field is close to the Jobo gas processing plant and can be tied in very quickly. This will add 30–40mmcf/day of additional gas production, which is available in there is increased demand due to the El Niño effect. Longer term this will probably be used for production into the interior market of Colombia once its new Jobo-Medellin pipeline is up and running at the end of 2024. The rig will now move to drill a similar prospect, Piña Norte-1, which will be followed by wells on look-a-like structures – Cereza-1 and Mafaldine-1. This success gives increasing confidence in the group’s ability to achieve its target of 200% reserve replacement (replacing 200% of reserves produced).

The company has announced that its exploration well, Chimela-1, has been successfully flow tested. The well logged oil and gas pay in January 2023. The oil zone was perforated and flowed 353bbl/day of oil with very little water cut or loss of reservoir pressure. The well has been shut in to allow for a build-up of pressure. Investors should note that this is just 7km from Gran Tierra’s Acordionero field, which is producing 18,600bbl/day of oil.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Canacol Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Canacol Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Canacol Energy and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Canacol Energy. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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