JDC Group — On track to reach high-end FY24 sales guidance

JDC Group (SCALE: JDC)

Last close As at 20/12/2024

EUR22.60

−0.70 (−3.00%)

Market capitalisation

EUR309m

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Research: Financials

JDC Group — On track to reach high-end FY24 sales guidance

After two quarters of >20% y-o-y revenue growth, JDC Group (JDC) has benefited from strong tailwinds in Q324 as well. Revenue growth of 36% in the quarter was partly driven by the acquisition of Top Ten, but mostly by strong Insurance, investment and banks activities. Q424 is also expected to be strong and JDC indicated that the high end of FY24 revenue guidance of €205–220m is well within reach. FY24 EBITDA guidance is in the range of €14.5–16.0m (FY23: €11.7m). After raising our estimates with the H124 results, we make no further changes. Our discounted cash flow provides a valuation of €34.0/share.

Edwin de Jong

Written by

Edwin De Jong

Analyst

Financials

JDC Group

Q324 results

Insurance

18 November 2024

Price

€24.20

Market cap

€325m

Net cash at Q324

€6.7m

Shares in issue

13.7m

Free float

51%

Code

JDC

Primary exchange

Deutsche Börse Scale

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

JDC Group is a leading German insurance platform, providing advice and financial services to professional intermediaries and banks but also directly to end customers. JDC also provides its digital platform for end clients and for the administration and processing of insurance products as a white-label product.

Analyst

Edwin De Jong

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

JDC Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

After two quarters of >20% y-o-y revenue growth, JDC Group (JDC) has benefited from strong tailwinds in Q324 as well. Revenue growth of 36% in the quarter was partly driven by the acquisition of Top Ten, but mostly by strong Insurance, investment and banks activities. Q424 is also expected to be strong and JDC indicated that the high end of FY24 revenue guidance of €205–220m is well within reach. FY24 EBITDA guidance is in the range of €14.5–16.0m (FY23: €11.7m). After raising our estimates with the H124 results, we make no further changes. Our discounted cash flow provides a valuation of €34.0/share.

On track to reach high-end FY24 sales guidance

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

Net profit
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

12/22

156.1

9.0

0.9

0.07

0.0

N/A

12/23

171.7

11.7

3.8

0.28

0.0

84.6

12/24e

220.4

16.0

6.0

0.44

0.0

55.0

12/25e

258.6

23.3

10.8

0.79

0.0

30.6

Note: *EPS are reported.

JDC reported revenue growth of 36.1% in Q324 from an already impressive 29.4% in Q2. Growth was, as usual, driven by the platform business in the Advisortech division (38.9%), while revenues in Advisory were also strong (+17.9%). Commission expenses increased to 73.8% of revenues from 73.0% in Q2 and 71.2% in Q3 last year. This was mostly the result of larger clients that take a bigger part of the generated commissions and lower gross margins at Top Ten, which was acquired at the end of 2023. Nevertheless, as a result of a relatively stable cost base EBITDA went up 41.4% y-o-y to €2.3m.

JDC has increased its use of AI to digitise the process on the platform, reducing costs further. 90% of documents related to three Property & Casualty insurance policy categories can now be handled completely digitally at an accuracy of 95%. More insurance categories will be added. Platform effects are now starting to play out at the company. Annual premium on the platform is nearing €1.3bn, after topping the €1bn mark last year. This year, new orders increased ~13% and the number of policy transfers initiated increased by around 53% to almost 417k y-o-y.

Q2 and Q3 usually are the weaker quarters within JDC’s activities. The relatively good performance in Q3 and the good start to Q4 provide confidence that the quarter is going to be strong as well. Revenues are likely to approach the €60m level for the first time. The company indicated that the upper end of the revenue guidance (€205–220m) as well as the FY25 target of at least €250m turnover are well within reach. The FY24 guidance of an EBITDA of €14.5–16.0m is intact. Our estimates already were at the higher end of guidance and we leave them unchanged.

On large clients, JDC announced that it has won VGH Versicherungen as a new savings bank-related client. VGH’s business territory includes 34 savings banks with around 4.8m insurance contracts and 1.6m clients. Furthermore, Summitas, the joint venture with Bain and major shareholder Great-West Lifeco, which uses JDC’s platform, announced the acquisition of BVUK.Gruppe at end-October. The transaction is expected to close before year end. BVUK.Gruppe is one of Germany’s largest consulting and brokerage companies in the field of company pension schemes, and this is Summitas’s first large transaction after several smaller ones.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by JDC Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by JDC Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by JDC Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by JDC Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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