Genuit Group — Outlook maintained

Genuit Group (LN: GEN)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

283.50

−14.50 (−4.87%)

Market capitalisation

GBP706m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Genuit Group — Outlook maintained

Revenue momentum has remained strong well into H221 and Genuit’s profit expectations for FY21 are in line with the market’s. The company’s share price has retraced to start-year levels recently (and underperformed the FTSE All-Share Index by 10% in the last month), with no change to business fundamentals in our view. While short-term challenges (such as supply chain strains) are present, we consider that overall market risk is lower now compared to the lockdown-driven uncertainties of 2020.

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Written by

Industrials

Genuit Group

Outlook maintained

Building & construction

2 December 2021

H122 results

Price

582p

Market cap

£1,443m

€1.18/£

Net debt (£m) at end October 2021
(excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities)

157

Shares in issue

248m

Free float

93%

Code

PLP

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(12.6)

(27.3)

12.8

Rel (local)

(11.2)

(26.6)

(0.3)

52-week high/low

801p

457p

Business description

Genuit (formerly Polypipe) is a leading supplier of largely plastic building products and systems. Operations in the UK (c 90% of revenue) address a broad range of sectors including residential, commercial and civil building demand and a number of subsectors within them. Overseas revenues are generated through exports, particularly to the Middle East, and a small Italy-based specialist fittings business.

Next events

FY21 year end

December 2021

FY21 results

15 March 2022

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Genuit Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Revenue momentum has remained strong well into H221 and Genuit’s profit expectations for FY21 are in line with the market’s. The company’s share price has retraced to start-year levels recently (and underperformed the FTSE All-Share Index by 10% in the last month), with no change to business fundamentals in our view. While short-term challenges (such as supply chain strains) are present, we consider that overall market risk is lower now compared to the lockdown-driven uncertainties of 2020.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

447.6

70.8

29.2

4.0

19.9

0.7

12/20

398.6

35.7

13.3

4.8

43.8

0.8

12/21e

593.0

86.7

28.6

12.0

20.3

2.1

12/22e

604.3

94.3

31.1

13.0

18.7

2.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. FY19 DPS represents the H1 payment only (no final dividend was declared) and FY20 DPS represents the final payment only (no interim was declared).

Good organic and acquisition revenue progress

Genuit’s November trading update indicated a similar strong rate of group revenue growth thus far in H2 compared to H1 (ie +31.1% for the four months to October and +32.4% respectively) compared to the (pre-COVID) 2019. Against the same base year, the latest four-month period is also well ahead on a l-f-l basis (+10.8%), although slightly behind the +13.8% seen in H1. Factoring in a stronger pricing effect as FY21 has progressed suggests that underlying demand has begun to normalise, but we are unable to quantify this at this stage. We believe that the revenue contribution from three Q1 acquisitions has been strong, most probably led by momentum at Adey (a residential heating filter and consumables supplier).

Outlook for FY21 and beyond unchanged

The aforementioned price increases aim to recover cost inflation and, while this will dilute margin in the short term, management anticipates that the FY21 profit outturn will be within existing market expectations (EBIT range £92.5–95.9m). Updating our estimates for H1 results and the latest update, we now reflect progressive pricing effects on top of firm volumes, which raises both revenue and EBIT – diluting FY21 margins only – compared to our last published estimates and we are at the lower end of the market range. Genuit’s senior team is undergoing a well-flagged transition with a new COO at the start of November and CEO-elect Joe Vorih expected to join in early 2022 after a handover from Martin Payne. Genuit’s positive long-term residential and infrastructure sector drivers are very much intact and, increasingly, underpinned by environmental and wider ESG considerations.

Valuation: Share price back to start of FY21 levels

Genuit’s share price has traded above its pre-COVID peak (of 607p) for much of this year, but has recently retraced below 600p for the first time since May. On our earnings estimates, Genuit’s EPS is expected to exceed the FY19 level in FY22, and the P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for this year have compressed to 18.7x and 11.6x respectively currently.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2014

2015

2016

2016*

2017*

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

327.0

352.9

436.9

387.2

411.7

433.2

447.6

398.6

593.0

604.3

638.3

Cost of Sales

 

 

(202.4)

(210.0)

(256.8)

(219.1)

(236.0)

(251.9)

(255.2)

(242.5)

(353.5)

(347.4)

(367.0)

Gross Profit

 

 

124.6

142.9

180.1

168.1

175.7

181.4

192.4

156.1

239.4

256.8

271.3

EBITDA

 

 

60.8

69.3

86.4

84.5

88.3

90.6

99.1

63.4

118.8

128.3

137.3

Operating Profit (underlying)

 

 

46.3

54.2

70.4

69.5

73.4

75.0

79.3

43.6

94.4

103.5

112.2

SBP

 

 

0.0

0.0

(1.0)

(1.0)

(0.8)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.4)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Operating Profit (reported)

 

 

46.3

54.2

69.4

68.5

72.6

74.0

78.1

42.2

92.4

101.5

110.2

Net Interest

 

 

(7.7)

(5.3)

(6.6)

(6.6)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(6.2)

(4.2)

(4.5)

(6.5)

(6.0)

Other finance

 

 

(1.0)

(0.9)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(2.3)

(1.2)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

0.0

(3.0)

(6.8)

(6.8)

(5.5)

(5.9)

(7.5)

(7.8)

(13.5)

(13.5)

(13.5)

Exceptionals

 

 

(20.7)

(3.5)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(4.6)

(2.7)

(3.2)

(4.1)

(6.1)

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

37.6

48.0

61.8

60.9

65.7

67.1

70.8

35.7

86.7

94.3

103.5

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

16.9

41.5

54.4

53.5

55.6

58.5

60.1

23.8

67.1

80.8

90.0

Tax

 

 

(5.4)

(9.2)

(11.8)

(10.1)

(11.8)

(10.5)

(11.9)

(6.3)

(15.6)

(17.0)

(18.6)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

32.2

38.8

50.0

49.2

53.9

56.5

58.9

29.4

71.1

77.3

84.9

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

11.5

32.3

42.6

43.4

43.8

49.1

49.6

18.5

46.2

66.3

73.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

199.9

199.3

198.9

198.9

198.4

199.0

199.3

218.1

245.8

245.8

245.8

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

16.1

19.4

25.0

24.6

26.9

28.1

29.2

13.3

28.6

31.1

34.2

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

5.8

16.2

21.4

22.2

22.1

24.7

24.9

8.5

18.8

27.0

30.0

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

4.5

7.8

10.1

10.1

11.1

11.6

4.0

4.8

12.0

13.0

14.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

38.1

40.5

41.2

43.4

42.7

41.9

43.0

39.2

40.4

42.5

42.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

18.6

19.6

19.8

21.8

21.4

20.9

22.1

15.9

20.0

21.2

21.5

Operating Margin (underlying) (%)

 

 

14.2

15.4

16.1

17.9

17.8

17.3

17.7

10.9

15.9

17.1

17.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

324.2

476.5

472.6

 

455.1

520.3

542.4

540.9

815.4

812.7

809.6

Intangible Assets

 

 

235.0

378.4

371.6

 

356.5

401.9

401.8

393.8

638.3

624.8

611.3

Tangible Assets

 

 

89.2

98.1

101.0

 

98.6

118.4

140.6

147.1

177.1

187.9

198.3

Investments

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

103.9

99.6

119.5

 

147.7

141.7

148.2

158.9

210.6

248.4

299.1

Stocks

 

 

39.9

47.5

52.2

 

53.5

58.1

59.7

52.6

71.7

70.5

74.5

Debtors

 

 

20.2

29.3

38.9

 

32.6

37.2

40.5

61.1

79.7

84.8

89.0

Cash

 

 

43.1

21.6

26.5

 

35.7

46.2

47.7

44.1

55.2

85.5

124.2

Current Liabilities

 

 

(69.8)

(87.2)

(104.5)

 

(108.8)

(108.7)

(108.1)

(119.1)

(146.3)

(144.6)

(150.3)

Creditors

 

 

(69.8)

(87.2)

(104.5)

 

(108.8)

(108.7)

(108.1)

(119.1)

(146.3)

(144.6)

(150.3)

Short term borrowings

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(120.6)

(227.9)

(200.2)

 

(192.0)

(222.1)

(221.1)

(79.8)

(260.9)

(263.3)

(265.7)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(118.0)

(215.9)

(190.8)

 

(184.1)

(210.4)

(197.7)

(58.9)

(197.2)

(197.2)

(197.2)

Other long-term liabilities

 

 

(2.6)

(12.0)

(9.4)

 

(7.9)

(11.7)

(23.4)

(20.9)

(63.7)

(66.1)

(68.5)

Net Assets

 

 

237.7

261.0

287.4

 

302.0

331.2

361.4

500.9

618.8

653.2

692.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

50.6

72.6

86.5

 

79.2

90.0

89.4

61.5

99.8

120.7

132.5

Net Interest

 

 

(10.4)

(5.7)

(7.3)

 

(6.6)

(6.1)

(7.4)

(5.4)

(4.9)

(6.9)

(6.4)

Tax

 

 

(3.7)

(5.2)

(10.1)

 

(12.6)

(11.2)

(12.4)

(8.2)

(14.0)

(15.6)

(17.0)

Capex

 

 

(14.9)

(18.9)

(18.7)

 

(22.0)

(23.2)

(18.0)

(24.5)

(35.9)

(31.0)

(31.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

(0.3)

(149.5)

0.0

 

0.0

(42.5)

(12.2)

(1.8)

(237.0)

0.0

0.0

Financing

 

 

(1.7)

0.0

(2.9)

 

(0.7)

0.3

2.4

118.5

92.0

(1.5)

(1.5)

Dividends

 

 

(3.0)

(10.6)

(17.1)

 

(21.0)

(22.3)

(23.7)

0.0

(21.8)

(30.4)

(32.9)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

16.6

(117.3)

30.5

 

16.3

(15.1)

18.1

140.1

(121.8)

35.3

43.8

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

84.7

74.9

194.3

 

164.3

148.4

164.2

150.0

14.8

142.0

111.7

Finance leases

 

 

(9.6)

(1.7)

0.0

 

0.0

(1.6)

(3.5)

(4.0)

(5.0)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Other

 

 

2.8

(0.4)

(0.5)

 

(0.4)

0.8

(0.4)

(0.9)

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

74.9

194.3

164.3

 

148.4

164.2

150.0

14.8

142.0

111.7

73.0

Lease finance (under IFRS 16)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14.8

12.9

21.8

21.8

21.8

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Continuing operations.

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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Electra Private Equity — Realisation strategy at the final stage

On 2 November and 2 December 2021, Electra Private Equity (ELTA) reiterated its corporate strategy for moving its listing from the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange to AIM, and provided updates on current trading for its remaining corporate investment, Hotter Shoes. With respect to trading, there was ongoing strength in Hotter’s revenue growth. Management’s medium-term guidance for Hotter suggests a revenue CAGR of 12% and EBIT CAGR of c 86% in FY22–25e. This guidance excludes incremental revenue from potential new brand partnerships as Unbound seeks to leverage its core target demographic, which management believes could double profits again in the medium term. Applying the median EV/sales multiple of UK online consumer peers to Hotter’s FY22 and FY23 guidance suggests an equity value of £22–33m, an average of £27.5m, versus its last reported (30 September 2021) adjusted net asset value (NAV) of £33.5m, before any incremental revenue and profit from the new brand partnerships. Unbound’s equity value will likely be enhanced when it is listed on AIM by the transfer of residual cash from Electra. Our estimated NAV for ELTA is £36.1m compared to the current market cap of £24.8m.

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