TXT e-solutions — Partnering strategy pays off

TXT e-solutions (Euronext STAR Milan: TXT)

Last close As at 20/12/2024

9.88

−0.06 (−0.60%)

Market capitalisation

129m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

TXT e-solutions — Partnering strategy pays off

TXT reported a strong performance in Q120, with 37% revenue growth and 52% EBITDA growth year-on-year. Despite COVID-19 disruption, the company signed several material contracts post quarter-end and acquired a start-up business focusing on supply chain finance software. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected outturn in Q1. The company is trading at a discount to peers on EV multiples despite its growth and profitability profile.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

TXT e-solutions

Partnering strategy pays off

Q120 results

Software & comp services

20 May 2020

Price

€7.75

Market cap

€91m

Net cash (€m) at end Q120

42.1

Shares in issue

11.7m

Free float

45%

Code

TXT

Primary exchange

Borsa Italiana (STAR)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.8

(16.4)

(6.9)

Rel (local)

15.1

24.1

15.1

52-week high/low

€10.66

€4.63

Business description

TXT e-solutions provides IT, consulting and R&D services to aerospace, aviation, automotive, banking and finance customers.

Next events

H120 results

6 August 2020

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

TXT e-solutions is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

TXT reported a strong performance in Q120, with 37% revenue growth and 52% EBITDA growth year-on-year. Despite COVID-19 disruption, the company signed several material contracts post quarter-end and acquired a start-up business focusing on supply chain finance software. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected outturn in Q1. The company is trading at a discount to peers on EV multiples despite its growth and profitability profile.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

40.0

1.5

0.10

0.50

75.6

6.5

12/19

59.1

7.6

0.46

0.00

17.0

0.0

12/20e

64.4

4.7

0.26

0.10

29.6

1.3

12/21e

68.0

6.5

0.37

0.12

20.9

1.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong performance in Q120

TXT reported revenue growth of 37% y-o-y for Q120, with growth of 19% in the Aerospace & Aviation (A&A) division (all organic) and growth of 90% for the Fintech division. The contribution from Assioma was not separately disclosed, but we estimate that the underlying fintech business was flat y-o-y. EBITDA of €2m was 52% higher y-o-y, with a margin of 12.1% compared to 10.9% in Q119. The company was able to shift to remote working when COVID-19 restrictions started and has not seen any material disruption to projects on which it is working, despite its customer base including airlines and OEMs in the civil aerospace market. In fact, post quarter end, the company signed several multi-year contracts, including one in the defence market and another with an Italian bank.

Digital transformation partner

TXT’s role as a strategic partner for customers’ digital transformation journeys means that it typically works on long-term projects for the development of new products or services. So far, the company has not seen a material effect on existing or new business from COVID-19. While in the medium term, demand from civil aviation and automotive customers is likely to be weaker, other segments such as defence and digital industry could compensate, and TXT is focusing on developing expertise in areas such as artificial intelligence, remote training & support and cybersecurity. We have revised our forecasts to reflect the better than expected Q1 revenue and EBITDA. This results in a 2% increase in our FY20 revenue forecast, and an increase in our EBITDA forecasts of 16% in FY20 and 6% in FY21.

Valuation: Discount to peers

TXT continues to trade at a large discount to its peer group on an EV/Sales and EV/EBIT basis, with revenue growth at the top end of the group and margins in line with peer group averages. P/E multiples continue to be inflated versus peers due to the €42m of net cash on the balance sheet. We expect the company will continue to seek earnings-enhancing acquisitions.

Review of Q120 results

Exhibit 1: Q120 results highlights

€m

Q120

Q119

y-o-y

Revenues

16.3

11.9

36.8%

Licences & maintenance

2.3

1.5

50.2%

Services

14.0

10.4

34.8%

Gross profit

7.3

5.2

39.5%

Gross margin

44.7%

43.9%

0.9%

EBITDA

2.0

1.3

52.1%

EBITDA margin

12.1%

10.9%

1.2%

Normalised EBIT

1.5

1.0

58.5%

Normalised EBIT margin

9.4%

8.1%

1.3%

Reported EBIT

1.2

0.7

61.0%

Reported EBIT margin

7.2%

6.1%

1.1%

Reported net income

0.3

1.4

(82.3%)

Net cash

42.1

61.1

(31.1%)

Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research

TXT reported strong growth in revenues in Q120 of 36.8% y-o-y. Note that the Assioma acquisition completed on 1 May 2019 so only a proportion of this growth was organic (see below for further divisional analysis). Both software and services showed material growth, at 50% and 35% respectively. The gross margin increased by 0.9pp due to the higher proportion of high-margin software in the mix, and despite a higher cost base, EBITDA was 52% higher y-o-y with a margin of 12.1%. Normalised EBIT (excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles) was 59% higher y-o-y with a margin of 9.4%.

The company holds a large proportion of its cash in multi-segment insurance funds (€87m at the end of Q1) which are marked to market. Due to the market turmoil prompted by COVID-19, these funds reduced in value by €0.7m over the quarter; the company noted that the decline had reduced to €0.3m by the middle of April.

Divisional performance

Exhibit 2: Divisional revenue performance

Revenues (€m)

Q120

Q119

y-o-y

Aerospace & Aviation (A&A)

10.5

8.9

18.8%

Software licences & maintenance

2.0

1.3

52.5%

Services

8.5

7.6

13.1%

Fintech

5.7

3.0

89.6%

Software licences & maintenance

0.3

0.2

36.9%

Services

5.4

2.8

93.7%

Group software licences & maintenance

2.3

1.5

50.2%

Group services

14.0

10.4

34.8%

Source: TXT e-solutions

Aerospace & Aviation – strong organic growth

Divisional revenues grew 18.8% y-o-y (all organic), with 52.5% growth in software revenues and 13.1% growth in services revenues. The company worked on recurring projects in the defence sector, and multi-year software licences signed by North American OEMs and airlines at the end of 2019 contributed to revenues in the quarter.

Since the end of the quarter, the division has signed new contracts in the aeronautical defence sector in Italy and Germany worth c €1.5m this year. In consortium with several market-leading industrial companies, the division was awarded financed projects for artificial intelligence worth more than €1m over the next three years.

Fintech – still on the acquisition trail

Revenue growth of 90% was in part due to the inclusion of Assioma from Q219. We estimate that Assioma generates quarterly revenues in the range of €2.7–3.0m (all from services) – this implies relatively flat underlying performance for the division.

During April, the company signed a new multi-year contract with a leading Italian banking group for projects worth more than €5m over three years.

On 14 April, the division made a small acquisition of a supply chain finance start-up. The business was renamed TXT Working Capital Solutions. The company is working on releasing the first software solution from this business in June. TXT paid cash of €0.8m for a 60% stake and has a put/call option to buy the remainder of the business at a value dependent on its financial performance in FY24. We understand the business is currently loss-making and has not yet generated any revenues.

COVID-19 impact

The company managed to switch the majority of its staff to smart working and is continuing to support customers remotely. To differentiate its service and product offering in the current environment, the group is focusing development on areas such as artificial intelligence, social distancing, remote training and support, and cybersecurity.

The Q1 performance was not materially affected by the crisis, as can be seen by the organic growth of the A&A business. However, as this division sells to airlines (c 6% of group revenue) and also OEMs (aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers), in the medium term there could be some impact from reduced demand for civil aviation. Partially offsetting this, there should be support to revenues from new and ongoing contracts with defence aeronautics customers and multi-year software licences signed in 2019. As TXT works as a partner to companies with their digital activities, with a focus on projects for new product development which are often of multi-year duration, it is less exposed to short-term fluctuations in customers’ business activity.

The Fintech division is seeing the main players in the market continuing to invest in digital transformation. So far, the division’s growth targets and strategy have not been negatively affected by COVID-19.

Outlook and changes to estimates

We have revised our forecasts to reflect stronger than expected revenues and EBITDA in Q120. In March, we reduced our forecasts to reflect COVID-19 demand-related risk. Since then the company has seen no worsening in demand from customers that would lead us to cut revenue forecasts. Overall, we increase our FY20 revenue forecast by 2.4% and FY21 is substantially unchanged. We have revised our gross margin and cost forecasts based on those incurred in Q1. This results in a 15.5% increase in our FY20 EBITDA forecast and a 6.0% increase to our FY21 forecast. At the normalised EPS level, this increases FY20 by 46% and FY21 by 25%.

Exhibit 3: Changes to estimates

FY20e old

FY20e new

change

y-o-y

FY21e old

FY21e new

change

y-o-y

Revenues (€m)

62.9

64.4

2.4%

9.0%

67.9

68.0

0.1%

5.5%

Gross margin

44.3%

44.7%

0.4%

(1.4%)

45.2%

46.6%

1.4%

1.9%

Gross profit (€m)

27.9

28.8

3.3%

5.7%

30.7

31.7

3.3%

9.9%

EBITDA (€m)

5.6

6.5

15.5%

(7.9%)

7.5

8.0

6.0%

23.5%

EBITDA margin

8.9%

10.0%

1.1%

(1.8%)

11.1%

11.7%

0.6%

1.7%

Normalised EBIT (€m)

3.1

4.7

53.3%

(13.4%)

5.0

6.2

24.2%

32.4%

Normalised EBIT margin

4.9%

7.3%

2.4%

(1.9%)

7.4%

9.1%

1.8%

1.9%

Normalised net income (€m)

2.1

3.1

45.2%

(42.5%)

3.5

4.3

23.7%

41.5%

Normalised EPS (€)

0.18

0.26

46.0%

(42.5%)

0.30

0.37

24.5%

41.6%

Reported basic EPS (€)

0.12

0.19

54.6%

597.7%

0.24

0.30

23.6%

58.3%

Net cash (€m)

43.8

42.5

(3.0%)

2.5%

47.1

46.0

(2.3%)

8.4%

Dividend (€)

0.10

0.10

0.0%

N/A

0.12

0.12

0.0%

20.0%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

TXT continues to trade at a large discount to its peer group on an EV/Sales and EV/EBIT basis, with revenue growth at the top end of the group and margins in line with peer group averages. P/E multiples continue to be inflated versus peers due to the €42m of net cash on the balance sheet. We expect the company will continue to look for earnings-enhancing acquisitions.

Exhibit 4: Peer valuation and financial metrics

Company

Share price

Market cap

Rev growth

EBIT margin

EBITDA margin

EV/Sales (x)

EV/EBIT (x)

P/E (x)

Div yield

(m)

CY

NY

CY

NY

CY

NY

CY

NY

CY

NY

CY

NY

CY

NY

TXT

€7.75

€91

9.0%

5.5%

7.3%

9.1%

10.0%

11.7%

0.8

0.7

10.5

8.0

29.6

20.9

1.3%

1.5%

European IT services companies

AKKA Technologies

€23.65

€480

-1.3%

7.0%

5.1%

6.8%

9.2%

10.8%

0.4

0.4

7.7

5.5

10.9

6.8

1.3%

2.3%

Alten

€69.20

€2,349

-6.1%

5.8%

7.2%

9.1%

8.6%

10.3%

1.0

0.9

13.9

10.3

20.9

14.3

1.3%

1.2%

AtoS

€62.84

€6,855

-2.3%

1.5%

7.5%

8.3%

13.4%

14.2%

0.9

0.9

11.7

10.4

9.3

8.3

2.2%

2.5%

Cap Gemini

€81.54

€13803

12.7%

8.3%

10.3%

11.2%

14.4%

15.1%

1.0

0.9

9.3

7.9

13.1

11.0

2.1%

2.5%

Devoteam

€67.00

€558

-3.2%

9.8%

7.8%

9.9%

10.6%

12.5%

0.8

0.7

9.8

7.1

21.8

12.6

1.4%

1.9%

ESI Group

€30.00

€178

40.1%

7.2%

4.5%

6.5%

10.7%

10.9%

1.6

1.5

34.9

22.7

47.4

30.2

0.0%

0.0%

Exprivia

€0.69

€36

-13.2%

2.2%

1.1%

2.5%

5.0%

6.1%

0.5

0.5

44.2

18.9

N/A

N/A

0.0%

0.0%

Reply

€67.30

€2,515

4.0%

8.6%

12.1%

12.9%

15.1%

15.7%

2.0

1.8

16.2

14.0

23.7

20.7

0.7%

0.8%

Sopra Steria

€96.15

€1,973

-2.9%

3.7%

5.9%

7.2%

9.3%

10.5%

0.7

0.6

11.3

8.9

12.8

9.8

2.0%

2.3%

Average

3.1%

6.0%

6.9%

8.3%

10.7%

11.8%

1.0

0.9

17.7

11.7

17.3

11.1

1.2%

1.5%

(Discount)/premium to peers

(21%)

(20%)

(40%)

(32%)

71%

88%

6%

2%

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv (as at 18 May)

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

€'000s

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

33,060

35,852

39,957

59,091

64,426

67,998

Cost of sales

(18,954)

(20,224)

(22,289)

(31,825)

(35,616)

(36,328)

Gross profit

14,106

15,628

17,668

27,266

28,810

31,670

EBITDA

 

 

4,260

3,536

4,098

7,004

6,451

7,970

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

3,954

3,180

2,755

5,408

4,683

6,202

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(264)

(439)

(610)

(1,142)

(1,224)

(1,224)

Exceptionals and other income

(557)

0

(300)

(4,145)

0

0

Other income

0

(69)

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

3,133

2,672

1,845

121

3,459

4,978

Net Interest

48

(208)

(1,284)

2,194

0

250

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

4,002

2,972

1,471

7,602

4,683

6,452

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

3,181

2,464

561

2,315

3,459

5,228

Tax

(661)

(710)

4

(1,867)

(969)

(1,464)

Profit After Tax (norm)

3,170

2,170

1,204

5,473

3,372

4,645

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

2,520

1,754

565

448

2,491

3,764

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

11.7

11.7

11.7

11.7

11.7

11.7

EPS - normalised (€)

 

 

0.271

0.186

0.102

0.456

0.262

0.371

EPS - normalised fully diluted (€)

 

 

0.271

0.186

0.102

0.456

0.262

0.371

EPS - (IFRS) (€)

 

 

0.475

5.874

0.048

0.027

0.187

0.296

Dividend per share (€)

0.30

1.00

0.50

0.00

0.10

0.12

Gross margin (%)

42.7

43.6

44.2

46.1

44.7

46.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

12.9

9.9

10.3

11.9

10.0

11.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

12.0

8.9

6.9

9.2

7.3

9.1

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

25,428

8,860

22,942

34,635

33,544

31,652

Intangible Assets

21,296

7,332

17,751

24,380

23,957

22,733

Tangible Assets

1,598

793

3,680

7,929

7,261

6,593

Other

2,534

735

1,511

2,326

2,326

2,326

Current Assets

 

 

37,085

109,426

134,674

127,052

123,149

120,029

Stocks

3,146

2,528

3,141

4,156

4,456

4,756

Debtors

26,369

17,215

16,992

24,150

27,398

28,917

Cash

7,570

89,683

114,541

98,746

91,295

86,356

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(21,051)

(13,612)

(29,366)

(43,129)

(44,466)

(45,361)

Creditors

(20,243)

(12,937)

(12,062)

(17,823)

(19,160)

(20,055)

Short term borrowings

(808)

(675)

(17,304)

(25,306)

(25,306)

(25,306)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(7,180)

(4,781)

(41,903)

(36,538)

(28,038)

(19,538)

Long term borrowings

(1,391)

(1,688)

(36,882)

(32,029)

(23,529)

(15,029)

Other long term liabilities

(5,789)

(3,093)

(5,021)

(4,509)

(4,509)

(4,509)

Net Assets

 

 

34,282

99,893

86,347

82,020

84,188

86,781

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

10,676

119

2,039

(354)

4,241

7,046

Net Interest

105

(208)

(69)

3,102

0

250

Tax

(2,022)

379

(624)

(229)

(969)

(1,464)

Capex

(738)

(661)

(548)

(916)

(1,100)

(1,100)

Acquisitions/disposals

(5,403)

82,250

1,314

(2,178)

(800)

0

Financing

(828)

(6)

(7,208)

(4,287)

(324)

0

Dividends

(2,931)

(3,496)

(11,710)

(5,781)

0

(1,171)

Net Cash Flow

(1,141)

78,377

(16,806)

(10,643)

1,048

3,561

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,259)

(5,371)

(87,320)

(60,355)

(41,412)

(42,460)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

(2,788)

(2,500)

0

0

Other

(1,747)

3,572

(7,371)

(5,800)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,371)

(87,320)

(60,355)

(41,412)

(42,460)

(46,021)

Source: TXT e-solutions, Edison Investment Research


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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Keywords Studios — £100m placing, trading resilient

Keywords announced a £100m equity placing on 14 May 2020. The funds are to increase flexibility for the group’s buy-and-build M&A strategy and reinforce its financial position. Management also updated on trading over March and April (7% y-o-y growth), with January and February showing 21% y-o-y growth. Recognising this resilience during lockdown, we have raised our revenue growth forecast for FY20 to 8% y-o-y (4% previously), with a consequential impact on FY21e (€405.8m, 15% growth). We maintain our view that Keywords is well placed as the only games service provider on a global scale. The P/E rating (45.8x FY20e, 34.9x FY21e) reflects the company’s leading market position, track record and potential, but should fall further as Keywords executes its buy-and-build strategy.

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