Takung Art — Pausing new listings

Takung Art — Pausing new listings

Takung’s H118 results show good progress in the number of new listings, with accompanying fees up 137% on the comparative period. Patterns in commission revenue reflect the previously announced shift in emphasis towards the retail market. In light of the disruption to online transactions in China as a result of contagion from problems in peer-to-peer lending, management has decided to pause new listings for Q3 and possibly beyond, with some associated internal restructuring. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 forecasts accordingly. The group had $10.2m of net cash at the period end, giving it plenty of resource to ride out short-term volatility.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Takung Art

Pausing new listings

Q2 results

Retail

16 August 2018

Price

US$1.00

Market cap

US$11m

Net cash ($m) at 30 June 18

10.2

Shares in issue

11.2m

Free float

16.6%

Code

TKAT

Primary exchange

NYSE

Secondary exchange

FRA

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(34.2)

(55.9)

(75.0)

Rel (local)

(34.6)

(57.6)

(78.1)

52-week high/low

US$4.2

US$1.0

Business description

Based in Hong Kong, Takung Art Company provides a secure and easy way for art collectors and investors to acquire shared ownership in Asian and other fine art – including paintings, calligraphy, jewellery and precious gems – and participate in the booming international art market without fear of price manipulation and forgery.

Next events

Q3 results

Mid-November 2018

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Alasdair Young

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Takung Art is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Takung’s H118 results show good progress in the number of new listings, with accompanying fees up 137% on the comparative period. Patterns in commission revenue reflect the previously announced shift in emphasis towards the retail market. In light of the disruption to online transactions in China as a result of contagion from problems in peer-to-peer lending, management has decided to pause new listings for Q3 and possibly beyond, with some associated internal restructuring. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 forecasts accordingly. The group had $10.2m of net cash at the period end, giving it plenty of resource to ride out short-term volatility.

Year end

Revenue ($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

EV/EBITDA (x)

12/16

19.1

9.5

0.66

0.00

2.0

N/A

0.3

12/17

12.9

(1.1)

(0.15)

0.00

N/A

N/A

N/A

12/18e**

12.5

(2.8)

(0.18)

0.00

N/A

N/A

N/A

12/19e**

13.5

(1.3)

(0.09)

0.00

N/A

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Revenues adjusted for change in accounting.

Reining in

The group has a strong pipeline of potential new listings, but is reluctant to launch them into such an uncertain market for both primary and secondary trading. Customer deposits, a good lead indicator for trading activity on the platform, have been drifting in recent weeks as confidence in online transactions in China and investor sentiment has deteriorated. Pulling the short-term listing programme is a sensible precaution and should help support trading in the existing portfolios. Setting listing fee revenue to zero for Q318 and with a modest Q418 contribution, our FY18 revenue forecast reduces from $18.9m to $12.5m and FY19 from $23.3m to $13.5m. This moves the group from a forecast profit to a loss for both years. With cash of $10.2m at the half year and a programme to reduce general and administrative costs by 10%, our modelling indicates comfortable levels of funding to see the group through.

Growing e-commerce ambitions

Takung’s main business activity relates to its platform for trading fractionalised ownerships (see Initiation note). More recently (Q417) it has launched a more conventional e-commerce platform focusing on Chinese art and collectibles. The response has been very encouraging, with more than 13,000 registered users and over 5,000 listings of artworks. Takung is now evaluating the feasibility for a launch in the US.

Valuation: Reflecting uncertainty

The move into loss and the degree of uncertainty over the timing of any resumption of listing activity makes valuation very subjective. On an EV/revenue basis other art businesses and online retail/gaming and trading platforms trade on 3.5x, suggesting that Takung’s shares could trade markedly higher. A DCF on our revised numbers indicates a value of $1.90 (from $3.66 before), still well ahead of the current level.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

$'000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

31-December

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

GAAP

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

19,143

12,922

12,500

13,500

Cost of Sales

(1,129)

(1,247)

(3,750)

(4,050)

Gross Profit

18,014

11,675

8,750

9,450

EBITDA

 

 

9,779

(338)

(1,974)

(558)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

9,255

(1,081)

(2,974)

(1,558)

Share-based payments

(813)

(751)

(250)

(250)

Reported operating profit

8,443

(1,832)

(3,224)

(1,808)

Net Interest

(202)

(601)

(200)

(150)

Other income

416

577

421

409

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

9,469

(1,104)

(2,753)

(1,299)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

8,140

(719)

(3,003)

(1,549)

Reported tax

(1,769)

(343)

1,208

387

Profit After Tax (norm)

7,411

(1,631)

(2,066)

(974)

Profit After Tax (reported)

6,371

(1,062)

(1,795)

(1,162)

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

FX translation adjustment

(1,082)

763

(1,829)

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

6,329

(868)

(3,895)

(974)

Net income (reported)

5,289

(298)

(3,624)

(1,162)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

10,641

11,078

11,206

11,223

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

69.64

(14.72)

(18.44)

(8.68)

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

65.53

(14.72)

(18.41)

(8.68)

EPS - basic reported ($)

 

 

59.87

(9.58)

(32.34)

(10.35)

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

69

(32)

(3)

8

Gross Margin (%)

94

90

70

70

EBITDA Margin (%)

51

(3)

(16)

(4)

Normalised Operating Margin

48

(8)

(24)

(12)

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

2,696

3,262

3,262

3,262

Intangible Assets

21

22

22

22

Tangible Assets

2,065

2,191

2,191

2,191

Investments & other

610

1,049

1,049

1,049

Current Assets

 

 

45,540

49,567

42,666

43,831

Restricted cash

21,743

25,274

24,448

26,403

Debtors

3,059

2,292

2,217

2,394

Cash & cash equivalents

13,395

11,867

6,345

5,182

Loan Receivables/Other

7,342

10,134

9,656

9,852

Current Liabilities

 

 

30,603

34,911

34,037

35,993

Creditors

22,712

26,906

26,032

27,987

Tax and social security

550

313

313

313

Short term borrowings

6,309

7,209

7,209

7,209

Other

1,032

484

484

484

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

0

0

0

0

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

17,633

17,918

11,891

11,101

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

17,633

17,918

11,891

11,101

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

9,779

(338)

(1,974)

(558)

Working capital

(3,591)

(4,001)

(168)

(252)

Exceptional & other

1,896

4,381

252

409

Tax

(3,025)

(1,830)

387

387

Net operating cash flow

 

 

5,059

(1,789)

(1,503)

(13)

Capex

(1,412)

(814)

(1,000)

(1,000)

Loan payables/ loan receivables

(66)

0

0

0

Net interest

(435)

(526)

(200)

(150)

Equity financing

0

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

1,032

1,000

0

0

Net Cash Flow

4,178

(2,129)

(2,703)

(1,163)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,769)

(13,461)

(12,492)

(8,174)

FX

(1,552)

1,360

(990)

0

Other non-cash movements

66

(199)

(625)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13,461)

(12,492)

(8,174)

(7,011)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Takung Art and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Takung Art and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Healthcare

PDL BioPharma — Big in Japan

PDL reported Q218 revenues of $46.6m, with Noden product revenue of $25.9m (up 45.1% compared to Q118). Almost all of that growth came from increased sales in Asia thanks to the launch in Japan by distribution partner Orphan Pacific. Noden product revenue in the US was down slightly (1%) in the quarter compared to Q118, and the future of Tekturna in the US is now in question following a settlement agreement with Anchen Pharmaceuticals, which would allow it to enter with a generic in the US after March 1, 2019. Subsequently, the company reported a $152.3m impairment of its Noden intangible asset with the estimated fair value now at $40.1m.

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