DeA Capital — Platform developments and AUM growth

DeA Capital (MI: DEA)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

1.32

0.01 (0.61%)

Market capitalisation

352m

More on this equity

Research: Financials

DeA Capital — Platform developments and AUM growth

DeA Capital performed well in FY18 despite turbulent financial markets, developing its alternative asset management platform and growing AUM. Minority interests have been eliminated and net asset value grew. Strong cash flow continues, driven by net distributions from maturing fund investments, sufficient to fund reinvestment and strong distributions. The board is proposing payment of an unchanged €0.12 per share dividend in the current year, a yield of almost 9%. Our adjusted net asset value per share is unchanged at €1.94, c 40% ahead of the share price.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Financials

DeA Capital

Platform developments and AUM growth

2018 results

Financial services

19 March 2019

Price

€1.41

Market cap

€365m

Holding company net financial position (€m) at 31 December 2018

100.6

Shares in issue

259.0m

Free float

24.4%

Code

DEA

Primary exchange

BIT

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

8.6

14.6

(5.9)

Rel (local)

4.2

0.6

1.7

52-week high/low

€1.60

€1.20

Business description

DeA Capital, a De Agostini group company, is Italy’s leading alternative asset manager of real estate, private equity and NPLs, with AUM of c €11.9bn at 31 December 2018. The investment portfolio, including co-investment in funds managed, investment in the asset management platform and direct investment, amounted to c €365m.

Next events

Star Conference, Milan

20 March 2019

Annual shareholder meeting

18 April 2019

Analysts

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

DeA Capital is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

DeA Capital performed well in FY18 despite turbulent financial markets, developing its alternative asset management platform and growing AUM. Minority interests have been eliminated and net asset value grew. Strong cash flow continues, driven by net distributions from maturing fund investments, sufficient to fund reinvestment and strong distributions. The board is proposing payment of an unchanged €0.12 per share dividend in the current year, a yield of almost 9%. Our adjusted net asset value per share is unchanged at €1.94, c 40% ahead of the share price.

Year end

Closing AUM (€bn)

AAM fees* (€m)

NAV/share
(€)

DPS (declared)
(€)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

10.6

61.0

2.03

0.12

0.69

8.6

12/17

11.7

59.8

1.92

0.12

0.73

8.6

12/18

11.9

63.3

1.84

0.12

0.76

8.6

12/19e

12.4

62.1

1.77

0.12

0.79

8.6

Note: NAV as stated, including goodwill. *Divisional AAM fees before group consolidation adjustment for own funds managed.

AAM growth and platform development

Q418 assets under management (AUM) increased to c €11.9bn (end-Q319 c €11.4bn; end-FY17: c €11.7bn), supported by new fund launches. Asset management fees grew strongly, including private equity performance fees (we estimate €2.5m). The year-end net financial position was €100.6m, up from €61.8m at end-FY17 adjusted for €30.5m dividends distributed. During Q418 DeA paid €40m to increase its ownership of DeA Capital Real Estate to 94% from 64.3%, and since year-end has increased its ownership to 100% in a treasury share exchange. We welcome this development because it increases DeA’s exposure to alternative asset management (AAM), reduces complexity and provides greater flexibility in managing the platform. End-FY18 NAV per share was €1.84 (end-Q318: 1.83; end-FY17: €1.80 adjusted for DPS paid since).

Platform investment

Already a leader in Italy in alternative assets, providing an integrated platform comprising private equity, real estate and non-performing loans, DeA has a strong, liquid balance sheet, with high levels of cash flow, to support further growth in Italy and into wider Europe. 100% ownership of DeA Capital Real Estate represents a simpler, more flexible, and potentially more efficient base from which to expand the real estate platform from Italy into broader Europe. The recent creation of real estate advisory and consultancy subsidiaries in Spain and France are the first steps in this development.

Valuation: Cash flow for yield and growth

The discount to IFRS NAV has narrowed to 23% but remains large, and its P/BV is the lowest amongst peers. The discount to our adjusted NAV (see page 6), unchanged at €1.94, is a larger 28%. A strong balance sheet and cash flow position support an attractive yield and provide resources for investment to grow AAM further.

The Italian leader in alternative assets

DeA Capital is a leader in the Italian AAM sector. It manages assets of around €11.9bn across its integrated AAM platform, comprising private equity, real estate and NPLs, and operates as an investor in its own funds managed, and invests directly, from its permanent capital base. The group is majority-owned by De Agostini, a family-owned private group founded in 1901, itself owned by the Boroli and Drago families. De Agostini operates in the media, gaming, services and, through DeA Capital, AAM sectors. De Agostini has a 58.3% stake in DeA and, through the loyalty share scheme approved by shareholders in 2015, has a voting interest of 67%.

The AAM platform mainly comprises DeA Capital Real Estate, in which DeA has recently increased its ownership to 100%, the leading real estate manager in Italy with AUM of €9.5bn (measured by total managed assets) and DeA Capital Alternative Funds, which manages €2.4bn (measured by total commitments) of private equity funds. In addition, 45%-owned associate YARD provides property services to the real estate sector, including DeA. Key strategic goals for the AAM business are to further expand the base of investors and the range of products offered and DeA recently announced the creation of real estate advisory and consultancy subsidiaries in France and Spain, the first steps in creating a pan-European real estate platform. AAM continues to have good growth potential as low interest rates continue to stimulate demand for alternative assets (private equity, real assets and hedge funds) from investors seeking sustainable yields.

DeA’s private equity investment strategy is focused on increasing the value of the existing portfolio while seeking new opportunities for co-investment/club deals, both directly with own capital and alongside the funds managed. It also invests to support the growth of the AAM platform, investing in new capabilities and seeding new fund launches.

DeA has a strong and liquid balance sheet. Net asset value at 31 December 2018 was €466m, or €1.84 per share. The net assets of the AAM business (41%), investments in private equity and real estate funds (27%), and a significant net financial position (22%), together represent 90% of the NAV. The direct investment portfolio account represents the balance.

For a detailed analysis of DeA Capital and its strategy, please see our June Outlook note.

Exhibit 1: DeA Capital group financial position at 31 December 2018

Net assets (€m)

Net assets per share (€)

% of total NAV

December

December*

December

December*

December

December*

2018

2017

2018

2017

2018

2017

Private equity investments

Kenan (Migros)

19.4

45.6

0.08

0.18

4%

10%

Private equity/real estate funds

125

170.9

0.49

0.67

27%

37%

IDeaMI, Cellularline, other

31.6

33.4

0.12

0.13

7%

7%

Total private equity investment

176.0

249.9

0.69

0.98

38%

54%

Alternative asset management

DeA Capital Real Estate

140.4

101.2

0.55

0.40

30%

22%

DeA Capital Alternative Funds

43.4

39.9

0.17

0.16

9%

9%

Other (including YARD)

5.6

6.0

0.02

0.02

1%

1%

Total alternative asset management investment

189.4

147.1

0.75

0.58

41%

32%

Total investment portfolio

365.4

397.0

1.44

1.55

78%

86%

Other net assets/(liabilities)

0.481

0.6

0.00

0.00

0%

0%

Holding company net financial positions

100.6

61.8

0.40

0.24

22%

13%

Net asset value

466.5

459.4

1.84

1.80

100%

100%

Source: DeA Capital. Note: *December 2017 adjusted for subsequent distribution of €0.12 per share.

AAM platform continuing to develop and grow

The board of directors of DeA Capital has approved the consolidated financial statements and the draft annual financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2018. Shareholders will meet to approve the results in April. 2018 and the early months of 2019 have seen a number of initiatives aimed at furthering the growth and international reach of DeA’s AAM platform, including new fund launches, increasing ownership of DeA Capital Real Estate to 100%, and taking the first steps in the creation of a pan-European real estate platform with new subsidiaries in France and Spain.

Alternative asset management

In this section we review financial and operational developments in DeA’s asset management platform, as well as our forecasts for the current year. The key points of note are:

Growth in AUM. Alternative AUM increased to €11.9bn as at 31 December 2018 compared with €11.4bn as at 30 September and €11.7bn as at 31 December 2017. New funds launched and managed during the year by DeA’s alternative asset management platform amounted to c €1.3bn, partly offset by maturing and liquidating funds. Within this, eight new DeA Capital Real Estate funds contributed c €1.0bn while the contribution from DeA Capital Alternative Funds included the launches of IDeA Capital Agro Fund in July (€80m commitment), and the Shipping segment (“CCR Shipping”) of the IDeA Corporate Credit Recovery II Fund (€170m commitment) in December 2018. IDeA Capital Agro Fund is the first Italian private equity fund dedicated to investments in Italian agricultural businesses with eco-sustainable business models. CCR Shipping is a new segment for the IDeA Corporate Credit Recovery II Fund, dedicated to acquiring shipping loans from banking partners.

Strong growth in management fees. For the year as a whole, consolidated alternative asset management fees increased 7.7% to €62.4m including a significant Q418 contribution from performance fees earned on the Investitori Associati IV private equity fund, originally promoted by Investitori Associati SGR but managed in run-off by DeA Capital Alternative Funds since 2015. We believe the performance fee contribution was c €2.5m, and although it is non-recurring in nature, DeA management is hopeful that the continuing run-off progress will generate further significant payments. Excluding the performance fee income, we estimate that fees increased by c 3% in FY18.

Big uplift in AAM platform earnings. DeA reports that the net operating result of the AAM platform (DeA Capital Real Estate and DeA Capital Alternative Funds) increased to €15.3m in FY18 compared with €13.4m at end-FY17. This figure is adjusted for non-recurring items such as investment gains and losses and goodwill impairment, as well as non-cash amortisation of intangibles.

Results also beat Edison AAM estimates. Our own analysis tracks the AAM division, which as well as the AAM platform, includes YARD, the group’s 45% owned property management associate and certain other activities. The Edison adjusted AAM divisional profit after tax and minorities was €12.9m in FY18, an increase of 35% on FY17. Our forecast, not including the Q418 performance fees, had been €10bn.

IFRS basis AAM earnings benefit also from non-repeat of goodwill impairment. On an unadjusted reported basis, the AAM divisional net profit after tax and minorities was €9.1m, a significant improvement on FY17, which included a €34.2m goodwill impairment at DeA Capital Real Estate (€22.0m attributable to DeA shareholders). The FY18 adjustments (see Exhibit 2) include the reversal of non-cash purchase price amortisation (PPA), net negative movements in the realised and unrealised value of investments (primarily a €4.5m pre-tax unrealised loss in real estate funds in the year), and the reduction in the value of financial equity instruments based on the legacy carried interest in certain real estate funds (SFP).

DeA Capital Real Estate minority reduced in FY18 and now eliminated. In November 2018, DeA completed the acquisition of an additional c 29.7% of DeA Capital Real Estate, from minority partner INPS, increasing DeA’s ownership to c 94.0%. The consideration for the acquisition of the stake was €40m, based on the book value of DeA Capital Real Estate, wholly financed from DeA’s significant internal cash resources. In addition, there is a maximum earn-out of €4.5m over the three-year period 2019–21 that is subject to DeA Capital meeting undisclosed set targets for new assets under management. In March 2019, DeA acquired the remaining 6%, also at book value, that was owned by Fondazione Carispezia, a private foundation that remains one of the main shareholders in the Italian bank, Credit Agricole Carispezia. The €8m consideration has been settled with DeA treasury shares, which are subject to a six-month lock up, and the agreement also includes a maximum earn-out of €0.9m. The implied value placed on the c 5.2m treasury shares issued is c €1.55, above the market price. We believe this development is positive as it underlines DeA’s focus on the growth of its AAM platform, increases the share of AAM earnings within the group, appears to us to be attractively priced, and is a significant move towards simplifying the DeA corporate structure.

Pan-European platform development. As part of the development strategy in AAM, DeA has begun to create a pan-European real estate platform, building on its existing leading position in Italy. The creation of a subsidiary in France in September 2018 was followed by a similar move in Spain in February 2019 to cover Iberian markets. The new companies are majority owned by DeA (and the balance by experienced local management) and aim to develop real estate advisory and consultancy activities for fund-raising and real estate management. Our FY19 forecasts allow for additional costs (c €2.5m) with no allowance for immediate revenues, which may prove conservative.

FY19 AAM forecast slightly increased. We have updated our model, including the minority charge elimination, with the effect that forecast Edison adjusted net income after tax and (previously) minorities increases from €12.2m to €12.5m.

Exhibit 2: Alternative Asset Management divisional summary

Reported

New

Old

Diff.

Change

€m unless stated otherwise

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2018e

2019e

2018e

2019e

Period-end AUM (€bn)

DeA Capital Alternative Funds

1.937

2.190

2.430

2.430

 

2.213

2.213

0.217

0.217

DeA Capital Real Estate

8.672

9.542

9.451

9.951

9.391

10.191

0.060

(0.240)

Total period-end AUM (€bn)

10.609

11.732

11.881

12.381

11.604

12.404

0.277

(0.023)

Period average AUM (€bn)

DeA Capital Alternative Funds

1.844

1.944

2.230

2.430

2.202

2.213

0.027

0.217

DeA Capital Real Estate

8.059

9.282

9.266

9.701

9.258

9.691

0.008

0.010

Total period average AUM (€bn)

9.903

11.226

11.495

12.131

11.461

11.904

0.035

0.227

Management fees/AUM bps

DeA Capital Alternative Funds

112

95

105

85

89

88

16

(3)

DeA Capital Real Estate

50

45

43

43

44

43

(1)

(0)

INCOME STATEMENT

DeA Capital Real Estate

40,261

41,381

39,768

41,472

40,614

41,671

(846)

(200)

DeA Capital Alternative Funds

20,724

18,438

23,483

20,655

19,605

19,474

3,878

1,181

Total alternative asset management fees

60,985

59,819

63,251

62,127

60,218

61,146

3,033

981

Income from equity investments

531

822

717

1,197

1,119

1,197

(402)

Other income/expense

1,088

1,676

(4,212)

2,336

(705)

2,336

(3,507)

Income from services

8,336

703

1,867

1,400

1,678

1,400

189

Revenue

70,940

63,020

61,623

67,060

62,310

66,079

(687)

981

Total expenses

(60,245)

(91,116)

(47,539)

(47,616)

(48,444)

(46,806)

905

(810)

Finance income/expense

19

13

(39)

(16)

(23)

Profit before tax

10,714

(28,083)

14,045

19,444

13,850

19,273

195

171

Taxation

(3,405)

(2,991)

(4,817)

(6,000)

(4,416)

(5,709)

(401)

(290)

Profit after tax

7,309

(31,074)

9,228

13,444

9,434

13,563

(206)

(119)

Minority interests

1,178

13,575

(109)

(100)

(1,442)

(525)

1,333

425

Attributable profits

8,487

(17,499)

9,119

13,344

7,992

13,038

1,127

306

Adjustments (net of tax & minorities)

PPA

1,042

592

543

770

566

724

(23)

46

SFP

1,494

2,460

632

632

Goodwill

24,897

Other income/expense

(1,017)

(839)

2,948

(1,635)

271

(1,537)

2,677

(98)

Provisions against investment impairment

(309)

1,170

(1,479)

Adjusted attributable earnings

10,006

9,611

12,933

12,479

9,999

12,225

2,934

254

o/w DeA Capital Real Estate

5,058

5,889

6,794

9,039

4,622

7,413

2,172

1,626

o/w DeA capital Alternative funds

3,776

3,153

6,114

3,637

3,783

3,649

2,331

(13)

o/w other alternative asset management (inc YARD)

1,173

570

25

(197)

1,595

1,163

(1,570)

(1,360)

Source: DeA Capital, Edison Investment Research

Other group comments

Increased NAV. Net asset value per share closed the year at €1.84, up from €1.83 at end-Q3 despite turbulent markets at the end of the year, and up from €1.80 at end-FY17, adjusted for the €0.12 per share distribution paid in May 2018 (FY17: €0.12 per share). The board proposes a similar €0.12 per share payment in 2019 in respect of FY18, an almost 9% yield on the share price.

Strong cash generation for distribution and platform investment. The holding company net financial position at end-FY18 was €100.6m, after the €40m payment to acquire DeA Capital Real Estate minorities, and up from €92.3m at the end of FY17, before the payment of €30.5m in distributions. Net distributions from own-managed private equity fund co-investments continue to drive strong cash flow, and during FY18 amounted to c €80m. We expect net flows to remain strong, although not as strong as FY18, with perhaps c €100m net distributions over the next three years, driven by maturing private equity funds.

As previously announced, DeA will propose to the shareholder meeting the cancellation of 40m of the treasury shares acquired over the past few years under its ongoing share repurchase programme. Although this will have no impact on reported liquidity, NAV, earnings or EPS, as the treasury shares are deducted from this calculation, we welcome the move as we believe it shows that management believes its significant net positive financial position is sufficient to support its current growth plans without the need to reissue the shares.

Forecasts and valuation

Little change in group forecasts

As noted above, AUM, management fees and AAM earnings were all above our expectations in FY18, with the Q4 performance fees earned being the main driver of the difference. Also as noted above, we have increased our forecast Edison adjusted AAM net income after tax and minorities for FY19 from €12.2m to €12.5m. For the group as a whole, forecasts for FY19 show a high but slightly lower holding company net financial position (c €87m versus c €92m previously) and a slightly lower NAV per share (€1.77 versus €1.78). As previously, in addition to our estimates for the AAM profit contribution, our NAV forecasts seek to capture at least part of the potential for growth in NAV from the majority of the investment portfolio that is not captured within the AAM segment. This includes the private equity fund holdings and the direct investments (Kenan Investments/Migros, Crescita/Cellularline and IDeaMI). We assume 7.5% per year ‘normalised’ growth in the carried value of all of the private equity fund investments and 4% per year for real estate funds (substantially representing the expected income returns), whether carried as available for sale investments, consolidated or equity accounted. We believe this to be a useful way to capture at least some of the returns that may be earned on these investments even though our approach differs from the way these assets are actually managed, seeking to maximise IRR. Our forecasts assume no change to the last published value of (or income from) the quoted investments, Migros (Kenan Investments), Cellularline (formerly Crescita) and IDeaMI, although for valuation purposes our adjusted NAV (see below) does adjust these to market values.

Exhibit 3: FY18 group performance versus forecast and FY19 forecast changes

AUM (€bn)

Fees from AAM* (€m)

Holdco net financial position (€m)

NAV/share (€)

Dividend (€)

F'cast

Actual

% diff.

F'cast

Actual

% diff.

F'cast

Actual

% diff.

F'cast

Actual

% diff.

F'cast

Actual

% diff.

2018

11.6

11.9

2.4

60.2

63.3

5.0

105.0

100.4

-4.4

1.84

1.84

0.0

0.12

0.12

0.0

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2019e

12.4

12.4

0.0

61.1

62.1

1.6

92.4

87.1

-5.7

1.78

1.77

-0.4

0.12

0.12

0.0

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Divisional AAM fees before group consolidation adjustment for own funds managed.

Edison adjusted NAV per share unchanged at €1.94

Our adjusted NAV replaces the stated book value of the alternative asset management platform with our assessment of a fair value based on P/E multiples observed across a global peer group of both alternative and more conventional asset management companies. We also mark to market DeA’s quoted investments. For a detailed explanation of our methodology and the peer group please see our December 2018 update note.

Within the AAM division, from the stated NAV of €189.4m we have re-allocated the real estate funds owned (with a reduced adjustment for minority interests still applicable at year end) to what we call the ‘investments’ division. We value the division at €162.2m on an unchanged 13.0x our forecast FY19 adjusted earnings of €12.5m. An increase or reduction in the multiple to 14.0x/12.0x would lift or reduce adjusted NAV by c €0.05.

The ‘investments’ column in Exhibit 4 includes the €176.0m of direct and fund investments shown in the breakdown of NAV in Exhibit 1, plus the reallocated real estate funds. We have also marked to market the indirect investment in Migros held through Kenan Holdings using a Migros share price of TRY15.3 and a TRY/€ exchange rate of 6.2. The market values of Cellularline and IDeaMI show no significant change from end-FY18.

The ‘other’ column represents the holding company net financial position (predominantly cash) and other net assets, shown in Exhibit 1.

Exhibit 4: Summary of adjusted NAV

€m

AAM

Investments

Other

Total

Per share

NAV

189.4

176.0

101.1

466.5

1.84

Adjustments

(51.6)

51.6

Kenan mark to market

0.1

Adjustment to earnings valuation

24.4

Adjusted NAV

162.2

227.7

101.1

491.1

1.94

Memo:

FY19 earnings

13.3

1.8

15.1

Adjustments

(0.9)

Adjusted earnings

12.5

P/E ratio (x)

13.0

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

Period ending 31 December (€000s)

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Alternative Asset Management fees (after inter-company eliminations)

66,045

62,416

59,114

57,944

62,422

61,133

Income (loss) from equity investments

(786)

(539)

524

3,898

(59)

1,849

Other investment income/expense

(56,149)

72,464

12,338

8,633

37,848

10,788

Income from services

19,176

18,496

8,509

2,208

2,505

1,400

Other income

3,204

288

144

141

0

Revenue

28,286

156,041

80,773

72,827

102,857

75,170

Expenses

(87,957)

(128,514)

(66,888)

(98,616)

(56,232)

(55,216)

Net Interest

2,905

4,982

(1,220)

(84)

485

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

(56,766)

32,509

12,665

(25,873)

47,110

19,954

Tax

1,720

6,452

(199)

(420)

(5,765)

(3,692)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(55,046)

38,961

12,466

(26,293)

41,345

16,262

Profit from discontinued operations

(887)

286

0

682

0

0

Profit after tax

(55,933)

39,247

12,466

(25,611)

41,345

16,262

Minority interests

(1,668)

1,825

(39)

13,959

(30,275)

(1,127)

Net income (FRS 3)

(57,601)

41,072

12,427

(11,652)

11,070

15,136

Profit after tax breakdown

Private equity

(60,739)

78,322

7,859

8,327

39,152

7,104

Alternative asset management

9,464

(37,304)

7,309

(31,073)

9,228

13,444

Holdings/Eliminations

(4,658)

(1,771)

(2,702)

(2,865)

(7,035)

(4,286)

Total

(55,933)

39,247

12,466

(25,611)

41,345

16,262

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

273.8

266.6

263.1

258.3

253.8

258.9

IFRS EPS - normalised (c)

(21.0)

15.4

4.7

(4.5)

4.4

5.8

Distributions per share (declared basis) (c)

0.30

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.12

0.12

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

786,141

558,086

559,335

454,156

372,650

365,288

Intangible Assets (inc. goodwill)

229,711

167,134

156,583

117,233

114,768

114,768

Other assets

39,988

38,590

35,244

10,305

8,939

8,939

Investments

516,442

352,362

367,508

326,618

248,943

241,581

Current Assets

117,585

173,882

141,521

178,161

185,446

178,000

Debtors

50,711

20,694

15,167

32,955

18,729

18,729

Cash

55,583

123,468

96,438

127,916

143,767

136,321

Other

11,291

29,720

29,916

17,290

22,950

22,950

Current Liabilities

(36,193)

(31,294)

(26,979)

(34,783)

(37,902)

(37,902)

Creditors

(35,833)

(30,643)

(25,757)

(34,583)

(37,698)

(37,698)

Short term borrowings

(360)

(651)

(1,222)

(200)

(204)

(204)

Long Term Liabilities

(40,911)

(15,514)

(12,830)

(12,475)

(14,414)

(14,414)

Long term borrowings

(5,201)

0

(19)

0

(2,859)

(2,859)

Other long term liabilities

(35,710)

(15,514)

(12,811)

(12,475)

(11,555)

(11,555)

Net Assets

826,622

685,160

661,047

585,059

505,780

490,972

Minorities

(173,109)

(138,172)

(131,844)

(95,182)

(39,299)

(32,426)

Shareholders' equity

653,513

546,988

529,203

489,877

466,481

458,546

Year-end number of shares m

271.6

263.9

261.2

255.7

253.8

258.9

NAV per share

2.41

2.07

2.03

1.92

1.84

1.77

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

188,419

188,492

19,148

91,146

96,408

23,625

Acquisitions/disposals

(1,476)

70

(290)

(633)

(275)

0

Financing

(157,756)

(38,148)

(4,362)

(26,073)

(46,994)

0

Dividends

0

(82,432)

(33,494)

(32,962)

(33,098)

(31,071)

Other

Cash flow

29,187

67,982

(18,998)

31,478

16,041

(7,446)

Other items

0

(97)

(8,032)

0

(190)

0

Opening consolidated cash

26,396

55,583

123,468

96,438

127,916

143,767

Closing consolidated cash

55,583

123,468

96,438

127,916

143,767

136,321

Financial debt

(5,561)

(651)

(1,241)

(200)

(3,063)

(3,063)

Closing consolidated net (debt)/cash

50,022

122,817

95,197

127,716

140,704

133,258

Holding company net financial position

40,600

90,016

79,739

92,301

100,420

87,132

Source: DeA Capital data, Edison Investment Research

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by DeA Capital and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by DeA Capital. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (‘FTSE’) © FTSE 2019. ‘FTSE®’ is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are ‘wholesale clients’ for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a ‘personalised service’ and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a ‘class service’ provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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Neither this document and associated email (together, the ‘Communication’) constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the ‘FPO’) (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the ‘publishers' exclusion’ from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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