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Pointer Telocation — Update 30 November 2016

Pointer Telocation — Update 30 November 2016

Pointer Telocation

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Pointer Telocation

Improving top-line trend affected by one-offs

Q316 earnings release

Tech hardware & equipment

30 November 2016

Price*

$7.70/
NIS29.25

Market cap

$61m/
NIS230m

*Priced at 29 November 2016

US$/NIS3.8726

Net debt ($m) at 30 September 2016

2.2

Shares in issue

7.87m

Warrants in issue

0.6m

Free float

59.3%

Code

PNTR

Primary exchange

NASDAQ

Secondary exchange

TASE

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.9

8.3

29.0

Rel (local)

(2.5)

6.7

22.5

52-week high/low

US$7.8

US$4.8

Business description

Pointer Telocation (PNTR) is a leading provider of MRM services and products to the automotive and insurance industries. Key services are asset tracking, fleet management and monitoring goods in transit/IoT. Its main markets are Israel, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Europe.

Next events

FY16 results

February 2017

Analysts

Anna Bossong

+44 (0)20 3077 5737

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Pointer Telocation (PNTR) is a telematics company with a focus on Israel and Latin America. In addition to sales of its own telematics devices, the group generates high recurring revenues from mobile resource management services. The results for the first nine months support our top-line and normalised full year profit expectations, representing 74-76% of our forecast FY revenue and EBIT. We have nevertheless cut our current year PBT forecast by 6% to account for higher finance and one-off costs. PNTR’s forward P/E discount to the sector has widened from 34% to 37% in recent weeks and we see potential for a re-rating on stronger earnings growth, which should be driven by the recent acquisition of Cielo Telecom in Brazil, a strong pipeline of new products and rising service margins.

Year
end

Revenue ($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

60.6

6.3

62.3

0.0

8.2

12.4

N/A

12/16e

63.7

6.4

61.9

0.0

7.2

12.4

N/A

12/17e

70.8

7.9

73.9

0.0

6.2

10.4

N/A

12/18e

75.7

9.4

87.3

0.0

5.3

8.8

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong top line but sales and marketing costs higher

Pointer Telocation reported a pick-up in third-quarter US dollar revenue growth from the 3% y-o-y in H116 to 9%, reflecting a continuation of mid-teens local currency revenue growth and a stronger trend in Latin American currencies. Good market conditions in Israel, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico helped generate a 14% y-o-y increase in MRM subscribers to 198k while PNTR’s high operating leverage helped drive a 10% higher gross profit. Higher sales and marketing outlays and finance costs resulted in normalised operating profit of $1.8m, up 1% y-o-y, versus the 3% decline in H1. One-off costs of $0.2m related to the CT acquisition and higher financial costs, boosted by forex translation losses, resulted in a 34% y-o-y reduction in US GAAP net profits to $0.7m (H1: $2.3m). Although we have increased our revenue and EBITDA forecasts over 2016-18, adding in the above-mentioned items has reduced our reported PBT forecasts by 7% in 2016 and 2-3% in 2017 and 2018

Net debt reduction ahead of Cielo acquisition

PNTR generated $1.4m in operating cash flow in Q3, representing a cash conversion rate of 1.0x vs 1.5x in Q315. The group used the cash flow to cut net debt $1.0m to $2.2m ahead of the $6.5m Cielo Telecom acquisition on 7 October. The company increased borrowing by $5.4m during the quarter in order to increase its cash balance to $14.1m in preparation for this and other acquisitions.

Valuation: High 37% discount to forward sector P/E

PNTR currently trades on a high and, in our view, unjustified 37% discount to the forward sector P/E. We continue to value the shares on a peer-based multiple valuation at $8.85 (NIS33.9) per share. Our DCF share value has increased from $11.1 (NIS42.6) to $11.3 (NIS43.7), reflecting increases in our operating profit expectations.

Third quarter results: Strong top-line trends

Pointer reported strong revenue growth in Q316, up 9% y-o-y in US dollar terms (and 14% in local currencies) to $15.9m, after 0.4% y-o-y growth in H116 to $31.0m (see Exhibit 2). The main growth driver was an 18% y-o-y increase in service revenues in local currency terms, after 13% growth in H1. According to management, this reflected good market conditions in Israel, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. When combined with better forex trends in key markets (particularly Latin America) – with implied average year-on-year currency deterioration versus the dollar of 6% in Q3 vs 13% in H116 – this resulted in an 11% y-o-y increase in dollar based service revenues.

Underpinning service revenue growth was a 13.8% y-o-y increase in mobile resource management (MRM) subscriber numbers, growing 6,000 in the quarter to 198,000. This represented a pick up in growth from the 12.9% y-o-y reported in H1. With the help of stronger currency trends, the Q3 ARPU gained $0.50 from the H116 level to reach $18.0.

The trend in product sales also improved in Q3, with revenues rising 6% y-o-y to $5.4m in Q3 after 0.2% y-o-y growth to $11.6m in H116. Gross margins in the third quarter widened 1.5% points to 49.2%, reflecting better performance in both the service and product segments and the impact of operating leverage. Higher sales and marketing outlays (up 29% y-o-y to $3.1m) resulted in normalised operating profit of $1.8m, up 1% y-o-y, versus the 3% decline in H1.

One-off costs of $0.2m related to the acquisition of Cielo Telecom on 7 October led to a 3.5% y-o-y decline in reported operating profit to $1.4m. Financial costs also rose sharply to $0.38m (H1: $0.24m) boosted by forex translation losses and increased borrowing at the end of the quarter to finance the acquisition of Cielo Telecom. This resulted in 34% y-o-y reduction in US GAAP net profits to $0.7m (H1: $2.3m).

It is worth pointing out that the mainstay of Pointer’s third quarter results was standard MRM services and product sales. Revenues were not significantly affected by the group’s newest internet of things (IoT) sensor-based product CelloTrack Nano. Management expects the first major impact from growth in these sales in 2017 after the launch of Pointer’s own platform for the product (please see our initiation note of 8 November 2016 for further information). Synergies from the acquisition of Cielo Telecom should also prove another growth driver in 2017, although in the shorter term the acquisition does bring about some uncertainty regarding group margins as management has not provided information on CT’s level of profitability except to state that the company is EBITDA positive.

Exhibit 1: Quarter-by-quarter results summary

$m

Q115

Q215

Q315

Q415

Q116

Q216

Q316

Q416e

Revenue

15.41

15.49

14.56

15.10

14.83

16.21

15.92

16.78

Gross profit

7.39

7.24

7.14

7.49

7.36

7.73

7.83

8.18

Gross margin (%)

48.0

46.7

49.0

49.6

49.6

47.7

49.2

48.8

Research and development

(0.9)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(0.9)

Selling and marketing

(2.4)

(2.6)

(2.4)

(3.0)

(2.6)

(3.0)

(3.1)

(3.1)

General and administrative

(2.2)

(2.2)

(2.2)

(2.7)

(2.1)

(2.1)

(2.2)

(2.2)

Non-cash adjustments/other

0.6

0.5

0.8

1.1

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

EBITDA

2.47

2.08

2.49

2.04

2.16

2.27

2.23

2.59

EBITDA margin (%)

16.0

13.4

17.1

13.5

14.6

14.0

14.0

15.4

Operating profit normalised*

1.98

1.63

1.80

1.00

1.73

1.79

1.82

2.10

Operating profit reported

1.73

1.41

1.45

0.05

1.58

1.65

1.40

1.70

Operating margin normalised (%)

12.8

10.5

12.3

6.6

11.7

11.0

11.4

12.5

Profit before tax normalised

2.35

1.47

1.64

0.87

1.82

1.46

1.43

1.70

Profit before tax reported

2.10

1.25

1.30

(0.08)

1.67

1.32

1.01

1.30

Source: Pointer Telocation, Edison Investment Research estimates. Note: *Operating profit before D&A, share-based payments and one-off expenses. Historic data adjusted to eliminate discontinued operation.

Exhibit 2: Pointer Q316 results summary table

$m, US GAAP

Q316

Q315*

% change

9M16

9M15*

% change

H116*

Q216

Revenues from:

Products

5.39

5.09

6.0

16.95

16.63

1.9

11.56

6.05

Services

10.52

9.47

11.1

30.01

28.84

4.1

19.49

10.17

Change service revenues, local currency (%)

18.0

N/A

15.0

N/A

13.4

20.0

Revenue

15.92

14.56

9.3

46.96

45.46

3.3

31.04

16.21

Change, local currency (%)

14.0

N/A

14.3

N/A

14.7

15.0

Cost of Products

(3.30)

(3.18)

3.9

(10.48)

(10.08)

3.9

(7.18)

(3.78)

Gross profit Products

2.1

1.9

6.5

6.5

4.4

2.3

Gross margin products (%)

38.8

37.6

38.2

39.4

37.9

37.5

Cost of Services

(4.79)

(4.24)

12.9

(13.56)

(13.62)

(0.4)

(8.77)

(4.70)

Gross profit Services

5.7

5.2

16.4

15.2

10.7

5.5

Gross margin services (%)

54.5

55.2

54.8

52.8

55.0

53.7

Cost of Sales

(8.09)

(7.42)

9.0

(24.04)

(23.70)

1.5

(15.95)

(8.48)

Gross profit

7.83

7.14

9.6

22.91

21.77

5.3

15.09

7.73

Gross margin (%)

49.2

49.0

47.9

48.8

48.6

47.7

Research and development

(0.87)

(0.82)

6.6

(2.69)

(2.53)

6.3

(1.82)

(0.92)

% of sales

5.5

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.9

5.7

Selling and marketing

(3.10)

(2.40)

29.1

(8.71)

(7.48)

16.5

(5.62)

(2.97)

% of sales

19.5

16.5

18.6

16.5

18.1

18.3

General and administrative

(2.15)

(2.20)

(2.1)

(6.38)

(6.59)

(3.2)

(4.23)

(2.09)

% of sales

13.5

15.1

13.6

14.5

13.6

12.9

EBITDA (continuing operations)

2.23

2.49

(10.2)

6.66

7.04

(5.3)

4.43

2.27

EBITDA margin

14.0%

17.1%

14.2%

15.5%

14.3%

14.0%

Operating profit normalised

1.82

1.80

1.1

5.33

5.41

(1.4)

3.52

1.79

Normalised operating margin

11.4%

12.3%

11.4%

11.9%

11.3%

11.0%

One-off items (acquisition-related expenses)

(0.20)

0.00

(0.20)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Operating profit

1.40

1.45

(3.5)

4.63

4.60

0.7

3.23

1.65

Operating margin (%)

8.80

9.97

9.85

10.11

10.40

10.15

Net finance costs

(0.38)

(0.16)

141.4

(0.62)

0.06

(1,071.9)

(0.24)

(0.32)

Other expenses

(0.01)

0.00

(0.00)

(0.01)

0.00

(0.00)

PBT normalised

1.43

1.64

(12.9)

4.71

5.46

(13.8)

3.28

1.46

PBT

1.01

1.30

(21.8)

4.00

4.65

(13.9)

2.99

1.32

Reported tax

(0.30)

(0.31)

(4.5)

(1.15)

(0.96)

20.4

(0.85)

(0.28)

Profit after tax reported

0.71

1.09

(34.5)

3.00

3.86

(22.1)

2.29

0.88

Minority interests (continuing operations)

(0.00)

0.02

(113.0)

(0.01)

0.08

(117.5)

(0.01)

(0.01)

Profit after tax normalised

1.13

1.35

(16.6)

3.54

4.58

(22.8)

2.41

1.18

EPS - basic ($)

0.09

0.13

(30.2)

0.38

0.50

(24.7)

0.29

0.11

EPS - diluted ($)

0.09

0.13

(29.5)

0.37

0.49

(23.6)

0.28

0.11

EPS - basic normalised ($)

0.14

0.19

(23.7)

0.46

0.60

(24.0)

0.31

0.15

EPS - diluted normalised ($)

0.14

0.18

(22.9)

0.45

0.58

(22.9)

0.31

0.15

Ratios and balance sheet/cash flow data

MRM subscribers

198,000

174,000

13.8

198,000

174,000

13.8

192,000

192,000

Avg. service rev. per MRM subscriber ($/month)

18.0

18.4

(2.0)

17.7

19.0

(7.0)

17.5

18.0

Operating cash flows

1.43

2.16

(33.8)

6.39

6.30

1.4

4.96

3.44

Cash conversion (Op. CF to operating profit, %)

1.02

1.49

(31.3)

1.38

1.37

0.7

1.50

2.09

Cash flows from investment

(0.69)

(0.98)

(29.7)

(3.07)

(1.68)

82.4

(2.38)

(1.28)

Purchases of property, plant and equipment

(0.72)

(1.16)

(38.1)

(3.58)

(2.51)

42.5

(2.86)

(1.28)

Cash & cash equivalents

14.07

N/A

N/A

14.07

N/A

N/A

7.75

7.75

Net debt ($m)

2.23

N/A

N/A

2.23

N/A

N/A

3.17

3.17

Net debt (cash)/Equity (%)

5.17

N/A

N/A

5.17

N/A

N/A

7.64

7.64

Current ratio

1.90

N/A

N/A

1.90

N/A

N/A

1.51

1.51

Quick ratio

1.62

N/A

N/A

1.62

N/A

N/A

1.25

1.25

Source: Pointer Telocation. Note: *Adjusted balance sheet data to reflect the deconsolidation of Shagrir in H116 not available for this period.

Change in earnings forecast: PBT cut 7% in 2016

As shown in Exhibit 3 we have increased our forecasts of group revenues, EBITDA and operating profit in the 2016-18 period. We have nevertheless cut our reported PBT forecast by 7%, in 2016, 3% in 2017 and 2% in 2018 to reflect the following:

■

Increased revenue forecasts 2017-18: We have increased 2016 year end subscriber numbers from 217.6k to 220.0k to reflect better than forecast 6k net additions in Q3, with a knock-on effect to 2017 and 2018 revenues. Net additions in Q4 will be boosted c 16k by the inclusion of Cielo Telecom customers.

■

We have cut 2016 G&A costs by $0.7m on the basis that Q4 administrative expenses will remain at around the Q3 level of $2.2m. This represents a 20% reduction on the Q415 sum, which was boosted by costs related to the spin-off of Shagrir, which took place in June 2016.

■

Cielo Telecom one-off acquisition costs: These amounted to $0.2m in Q316 and were not factored into our forecast. Management have advised of the likelihood of further costs related to this acquisition arising in Q4 leading us to incorporate a further $0.2m expense in the Q4 forecast. These costs are excluded from the normalised profit lines, so only affect the reported results.

■

Increased finance costs by $0.5m to $1.0m reflect the impact of FX translation losses, which were a contributor to a higher than forecast $0.38m finance charge in Q316. We have increased our finance cost estimates for future years to include FX translation losses of $0.3m a year, which has increased our estimates of finance cost estimates. We continue to assume interest costs of Libor + 3.5% on new debt plus the inclusion of a $0.2m forex-related adjustment.

■

We have adjusted our forecast of 2016 tax expense by $0.14m to reflect the relatively high effective tax rate of 29% in Q316. It is worth noting that the company is not incurring cash taxes, so this does not affect cash generation.

Exhibit 3: Change in earnings forecast

$m

2015

2016

2016

 

2017

2017

 

2018

2018

 

 

 

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

MRM subscribers (‘000)

180.0

217.6

220.0

1.1

242

244.2

1.1

268.1

271.1

1.1

MRM service ARPU* ($/month)

18.6

17.4

17.4

0.3

16.8

16.8

0.3

16.5

16.6

0.3

Revenue

60.6

63.7

63.7

0.1

70.5

70.8

0.4

75.3

75.7

0.5

Gross profit

29.3

31.1

31.1

(0.0)

34.6

34.7

0.4

37.3

37.5

0.4

Gross margin (%)

48.3

48.8

48.8

N/A

49.1

49.0

N/A

49.5

49.5

N/A

Research and development

(3.4)

(3.7)

(3.6)

(1.6)

(3.8)

(3.8)

0.0

(3.8)

(3.8)

0.0

Selling and marketing

(10.5)

(11.6)

(11.8)

1.9

(12.8)

(12.9)

0.7

(13.6)

(13.7)

0.8

General and administrative

(9.3)

(9.2)

(8.5)

(7.0)

(9.7)

(9.7)

(0.1)

(10.2)

(10.2)

(0.1)

Non-cash adjustments/other

2.0

2.1

2.1

(0.6)

2.4

2.4

0.5

2.9

2.9

0.6

EBITDA

8.1

8.8

9.3

5.2

10.7

10.7

0.5

12.5

12.6

0.7

EBITDA margin (%)

13.4

13.8

14.5

N/A

15.2

15.2

N/A

16.6

16.7

N/A

Operating profit normalised

6.4

7.0

7.4

6.6

8.6

8.7

0.5

9.9

10.0

0.8

Operating profit reported

4.6

6.3

6.3

1.1

8.0

8.0

0.6

9.3

9.4

0.8

Operating margin normalised (%)

10.6

10.9

11.7

N/A

12.2

12.3

N/A

13.2

13.2

N/A

Finance costs

(0.1)

(0.6)

(1.0)

85.2

(0.6)

(0.8)

48.1

(0.3)

(0.6)

72.6

Profit before tax normalised

6.3

6.4

6.4

(0.4)

8.1

7.9

(2.8)

9.6

9.4

(1.8)

Profit before tax reported

4.6

5.7

5.3

(7.2)

7.4

7.2

(3.0)

9.0

8.8

(1.9)

EPS - diluted normalised ($)

0.62

0.60

0.62

2.3

0.73

0.74

0.6

0.86

0.87

1.6

EPS - basic reported ($)

0.49

0.55

0.51

(8.5)

0.70

0.68

(2.9)

0.84

0.82

(1.8)

Source: Pointer Telocation accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Average revenue per month.

Valuation: Attractive 37% forward P/E sector discount

Exhibit 4: Peer valuation comparison

$m

Main focus

Share price* (lc)

Market cap
($m)

Current sales ($m)(e)

EBITDA margin this yr (e)

Current EV/S (e)

Next EV/S

Current EV/ EBITDA (e)

Next EV/ EBITDA (e)

Current P/E (e)

Next P/E (e)

Last div yield

Net debt (cash)/
equity

Pointer Telocation

Isr, Latam, SA

$7.60

59

64

14.5%

1.0

0.9

7.1

6.1

12.3

10.3

0.0%

10.8%

CalAmp Corp

NAM

15.6

568

352

14.1%

1.4

1.3

9.7

8.4

14.4

12.7

0.0%

-15.6%

Fleetmatics Group

NAM

60.0

2,355

344

33.4%

6.4

5.4

19.2

15.5

33.9

27.5

0.0%

-6.4%

ID Systems Inc

NAM

4.9

68

36

-10.7%

1.7

1.4

neg.

35.0

neg.

26.5

0.0%

-7.0%

Ituran

Isr, Brzl, Arg

24.4

573

197

30.9%

2.8

2.6

8.9

8.0

17.3

14.1

0.0%

-5.0%

MiX Telematics

SA

5.8

141

107

18.9%

0.7

0.7

3.9

3.4

20.0

16.2

1.2%

-46.5%

Numerex Corp

NAM

8.5

166

71

5.3%

2.4

2.2

44.8

16.5

neg.

77.0

0.0%

1.9%

ORBCOMM Inc

US/Europe

8.9

632

189

24.7%

4.0

3.6

16.1

13.4

neg.

neg.

0.0%

19.6%

Sierra Wireless Inc

NAM

15.7

502

615

6.0%

0.7

0.7

12.2

10.2

28.2

21.6

0.0%

-9.9%

Trakm8 Holdings

UK

122.5

50

42

21.2%

1.2

1.1

5.7

4.6

7.8

6.8

1.7%

2.7%

QUALCOMM Inc

NAM

68.3

100,857

24,060

39.3%

3.3

3.3

8.5

7.7

14.4

13.5

3.0%

-20.4%

Quartix Holdings

UK

332.5

196

28

30.1%

6.8

6.4

22.7

20.6

28.7

25.6

1.6%

-1.9%

Average/Median* (multiples)

8,847

2,175

20.1%

2.1

1.8

9.7

9.3

17.3

16.2

0.0%

-5.7%

Average/Median* - market cap <$300m

113

86

16.7%

1.5

1.3

7.1

11.3

16.1

20.9

0.6%

0.0%

Average/Median* Ituran/MiX Telematics

357

357

24.9%

1.7

1.6

6.4

5.7

18.6

15.2

0.6%

-25.8%

PTNR premium/(discount) to peers

(49.9)

(49.0)

(26.5)

(34.2)

(29.0)

(36.7)

N/A

N/A

PTNR premium/(discount) to peers MCAP<$300m

(29.6)

(26.2)

0.0

(45.8)

(23.9)

(50.8)

N/A

N/A

PTNR premium/(discount) to Ituran/MiX Telematics average

(40.5)

(42.9)

11.0

7.9

(34.1)

(32.2)

N/A

N/A

PTNR premium/(discount) to Ituran

(62.6)

(64.0)

(20.6)

(23.1)

(29.0)

(27.1)

N/A

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg. Note: *Median applied to multiples only to remove effect of outliers. NAM = North America. Priced as at 28 November 2016.

PNTR currently trades on a high 37% discount to the forward sector P/E. We continue to derive a valuation of $8.85 (NIS33.9) from our peer-based valuation.

We attain this by applying a discount of 10% to Ituran and 20% to the sector’s prospective current year EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples. These discounts take into account Pointer’s below average market capitalisation/trading volumes versus Ituran and the sector as a whole, but also its strengths in its strong new product pipeline, its recent acquisition of Cielo Telecom in Brazil, its well-funded balance sheet, non-cash tax position and its potential to participate in further sector consolidation.

Exhibit 5: Pointer Telocation DCF analysis

$m

2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

2020e

2021e

2022e

2023e

2024e

2025e

2026e norm.

Revenue

63.7

70.8

75.7

79.7

82.5

85.1

87.9

90.6

93.3

96.1

98.5

change yoy (%)

5.2

11.1

6.9

5.2

3.5

3.2

3.3

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.5

EBITDA

9.3

10.7

12.6

14.1

15.1

16.1

17.0

17.6

18.2

18.7

19.2

EBITDA margin (%)

14.5

15.2

16.7

17.7

18.3

18.9

19.3

19.5

19.5

19.5

19.5

change yoy (%)

14.3

16.0

17.6

12.0

6.6

6.6

5.8

3.6

3.3

2.9

2.5

Change in working capital

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Working capital/sales (%)

(1.2)

(0.8)

(0.5)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Capex, net of PPE sales

(3.0)

(3.9)

(4.2)

(4.5)

(4.7)

(4.9)

(5.1)

(5.3)

(5.5)

(5.7)

(5.9)

Capex/sales (%)

(4.8)

(5.5)

(5.6)

(5.7)

(5.7)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(5.9)

(5.9)

(5.9)

Tax

0.0

(1.1)

(1.1)

(2.5)

(2.7)

(2.9)

(3.0)

(3.1)

(3.2)

(3.3)

(3.3)

Acquisitions

(8.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Free cashflow

(3.4)

5.2

6.9

6.8

7.5

8.1

8.7

9.1

9.4

9.6

9.8

Terminal value

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

133.5

Total cashflow

(3.4)

5.2

6.9

6.8

7.5

8.1

8.7

9.1

9.4

9.6

143.3

Discounted cashflows

(3.4)

4.7

5.7

5.1

5.1

5.0

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.1

55.0

Sum of discounted CFs

95.2

 

RFR

 

 

6.6%

 

 

 

 

 

Net debt (cash)

6.0

 

WACC

 

 

10.0%

 

 

 

 

 

Equity valuation

89.2

 

Terminal growth rate

 

2.5%

 

 

 

 

 

Number of shares, diluted

7.9

 

Terminal value/EV

 

54%

 

 

 

 

 

Value per share (NIS)

43.7

 

Value per share ($)

 

11.3

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Edison Investment Research

Following our forecast revisions, which have boosted our operating cash flow expectations, our DCF valuation has increased from $11.1 (NIS42.6) to $11.3 (NIS43.7) per share.

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

$m

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

60.57

63.74

70.81

75.69

79.66

Cost of Sales

(31.31)

(32.64)

(36.09)

(38.20)

(39.77)

Gross Profit

29.25

31.10

34.71

37.49

39.89

Selling and marketing

(10.47)

(11.81)

(12.85)

(13.74)

(14.46)

General and administrative

(9.28)

(8.53)

(9.74)

(10.21)

(10.66)

Research and development

(3.41)

(3.63)

(3.77)

(3.84)

(4.05)

EBITDA

 

 

8.10

9.26

10.74

12.62

14.14

Normalised operating profit

 

 

6.40

7.43

8.68

10.02

11.06

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(0.54)

(0.39)

(0.32)

(0.29)

(0.26)

Exceptionals

(0.91)

(0.40)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Share-based payments (inc. In COGS)

(0.31)

(0.32)

(0.32)

(0.33)

(0.33)

Reported operating profit

4.64

6.33

8.04

9.41

10.46

Net Interest

(0.06)

(1.03)

(0.83)

(0.58)

(0.40)

Profit before tax (norm)

 

 

6.32

6.40

7.85

9.44

10.66

Profit before tax (reported)

 

 

4.57

5.30

7.21

8.83

10.07

Reported tax

(1.31)

(1.48)

(1.80)

(2.21)

(2.52)

Profit after tax (norm)

5.02

4.92

6.05

7.23

8.14

Profit after tax (reported)

3.26

3.82

5.41

6.62

7.55

Minority interests

0.00

(0.02)

(0.02)

(0.03)

(0.03)

Discontinued operations

0.54

0.15

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net income (normalised)

4.95

4.94

6.02

7.20

8.11

Net income (reported)

3.80

3.96

5.38

6.59

7.52

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

7.73

7.82

7.92

8.02

8.12

EPS – basic normalised ($)

 

 

0.64

0.63

0.76

0.90

1.00

EPS – diluted normalised ($)

 

 

0.62

0.62

0.74

0.87

0.97

EPS – basic reported ($)

 

 

0.49

0.51

0.68

0.82

0.93

Dividend ($)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

5.2

11.1

6.9

5.2

Gross margin (%)

48.3

48.8

49.0

49.5

50.1

EBITDA margin (%)

13.4

14.5

15.2

16.7

17.7

Normalised operating margin (%)

10.6

11.7

12.3

13.2

13.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed assets

 

 

68.78

51.66

53.17

54.52

55.70

Intangible assets

31.83

40.02

39.70

39.41

39.15

Tangible assets

3.28

4.16

5.99

7.62

9.06

Investments & other

33.67

7.49

7.49

7.49

7.49

Current assets

 

 

34.66

22.04

21.30

25.02

32.42

Stocks

4.70

4.56

5.04

5.34

5.56

Debtors

11.09

11.87

13.19

14.10

14.84

Cash & cash equivalents

7.25

3.80

1.21

3.67

10.06

Other

11.62

1.80

1.85

1.91

1.97

Current liabilities

 

 

(30.45)

(17.19)

(17.50)

(17.55)

(18.25)

Creditors

(9.82)

(11.49)

(12.71)

(13.51)

(14.16)

Short-term borrowings

(4.82)

(5.00)

(4.00)

(3.20)

(3.20)

Other

(15.81)

(0.71)

(0.78)

(0.84)

(0.88)

Long-term liabilities

 

 

(17.95)

(13.01)

(6.76)

(3.49)

(3.24)

Long-term borrowings

(8.39)

(9.74)

(3.79)

(0.79)

(0.79)

Other long-term liabilities

(9.57)

(3.27)

(2.97)

(2.70)

(2.45)

Net assets

 

 

55.04

43.49

50.21

58.50

66.63

Minority interests

(1.07)

0.14

0.11

0.07

0.07

Shareholders' equity

 

 

53.97

43.63

50.32

58.58

66.70

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow before WC and tax

8.10

9.26

10.74

12.62

14.14

Working capital

(0.31)

(0.74)

(0.55)

(0.41)

(0.32)

Exceptional & other

2.20

0.43

0.00

0.00

0.00

Tax

(0.23)

0.00

(1.08)

(1.10)

(2.52)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

9.76

8.94

9.11

11.11

11.30

Capex

(3.62)

(4.15)

(4.23)

(4.60)

(4.91)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.00

(8.90)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Net interest

(0.89)

(1.03)

(0.83)

(0.58)

(0.40)

Equity financing

0.02

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Dividends

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other, incl.PPE sales

1.26

0.43

0.31

0.33

0.39

Net cash flow

6.53

(4.71)

4.36

6.26

6.39

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

9.22

5.95

10.94

6.58

0.32

FX

(0.19)

(0.28)

0.00

0.00

0.00

Other non-cash movements

(3.07)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

5.95

10.94

6.58

0.32

(6.07)

Source: Pointer Telocation accounts, Edison Investment Research

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Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

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New Zealand

Tel Aviv +44 (0)20 3734 1007
Medinat Hayehudim 60,

Herzilya Pituach, 46766

Israel

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Tel Aviv +44 (0)20 3734 1007
Medinat Hayehudim 60,

Herzilya Pituach, 46766

Israel

Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler — Update 29 November 2016

Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler

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