Genuit Group — Positive trading momentum continues ytd

Genuit Group (LN: GEN)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

283.50

−14.50 (−4.87%)

Market capitalisation

GBP706m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Genuit Group — Positive trading momentum continues ytd

FY21 has started well both in underlying terms and for recent acquisitions, especially Adey. Genuit is strategically well positioned given regulatory and environmental drivers in its markets, and the proposed management transition is being well flagged in advance. A strong expected earnings recovery from a COVID-19 affected FY20 is being reflected in support for Genuit’s share price.

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Industrials

Genuit Group

Positive trading momentum continues ytd

AGM update

Building & construction

28 May 2021

Price

642.0p

Market cap

£1,464m

€1.16/£

Net debt (£m) at end December 2020
(excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities)

14.8

Shares in issue

228m

Free float

93%

Code

GEN

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

12.0

17.1

51.2

Rel (local)

10.8

8.0

28.0

52-week high/low

645p

396p

Business description

Genuit Group (formerly Polypipe Group) is a leading supplier of largely plastic building products and systems. Operations in the UK (c 90% of revenue) address a broad range of sectors including residential, commercial and civil building demand and a number of subsectors within them. Overseas revenues are generated through exports, particularly to the Middle East, and a small Italy-based specialist fittings business.

Next events

H121 period end

June

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Genuit Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

FY21 has started well both in underlying terms and for recent acquisitions, especially Adey. Genuit is strategically well positioned given regulatory and environmental drivers in its markets, and the proposed management transition is being well flagged in advance. A strong expected earnings recovery from a COVID-19 affected FY20 is being reflected in support for Genuit’s share price.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

447.6

70.8

29.2

4.0

22.0

0.6

12/20

398.6

35.7

13.3

4.8

48.2

0.7

12/21e

534.6

81.0

26.9

9.0

23.9

1.4

12/22e

568.7

87.8

29.1

10.0

22.0

1.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. FY19 dividend represents the H1 payment only; no final dividend was declared.

Revenue growth and robust margins

The good momentum seen at the end of FY20 has continued into the new financial year and, compared to pre-pandemic FY19, like-for-like revenues (for the first four months to end April) are ahead by 13.5% (or +31.7% including acquisitions). Input cost pressures do not appear to have dented margins, which are broadly in line with management expectations, and this is partly attributable to forward buying by merchants ahead of price increases, notably in Residential Systems. Therefore, it seems that volume effects/operating efficiencies are largely offsetting optically dilutive margin effects arising from higher input costs and selling prices. Management notes ongoing challenges in the polymer input market, but these have been effectively managed to date with no disruption. Divisional revenue comments are at the headline level (vs FY19: Residential +c 44%, Commercial & Infrastructure +c 15%); both have benefited from acquisitions made in February – Nu-Heat and Adey in Residential, Plura in Commercial & Infrastructure – and the largest (Adey) is performing ahead of expectations, with the others in line.

Confident of progress, guidance raised

In a familiar sector refrain, outlook comments are confident regarding the remainder of H1, with a note of caution beyond this in FY21. In reality, H2 visibility is typically not strong for Genuit at this stage in the year anyway, but how the UK housing market performs once incentives step down and employment conditions begin to normalise adds additional uncertainty, as others have commented. Nevertheless, management retains its expectation of strong progress for the year, which is also evidenced by the upward guidance tweak, and our revised FY21 estimates are in line with this (ie EBIT of c £88m) with slightly smaller uplifts to subsequent years.

Valuation: Approaching all-time highs

Genuit’s share price has regained levels earlier in the year (prior to the February equity raise) and has recently attained an all-time high. Estimates have also increased (organically and via acquisitions) in FY21 and the net result is forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples of 23.9 and 14.5x respectively for the current year.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2016

2016*

2017*

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

436.9

387.2

411.7

433.2

447.6

398.6

534.6

568.7

592.7

Cost of Sales

 

 

(256.8)

(219.1)

(236.0)

(251.9)

(255.2)

(242.5)

(315.4)

(335.5)

(349.7)

Gross Profit

 

 

180.1

168.1

175.7

181.4

192.4

156.1

219.2

233.1

243.0

EBITDA

 

 

86.4

84.5

88.3

90.6

99.1

63.4

113.0

120.1

125.8

Operating Profit (underlying)

 

 

70.4

69.5

73.4

75.0

79.3

43.6

89.6

96.3

101.7

SBP

 

 

(1.0)

(1.0)

(0.8)

(1.0)

(1.2)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Operating Profit (reported)

 

 

69.4

68.5

72.6

74.0

78.1

42.2

88.2

94.9

100.3

Net Interest

 

 

(6.6)

(6.6)

(5.8)

(5.8)

(6.2)

(4.2)

(6.5)

(6.4)

(6.1)

Other finance

 

 

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(2.3)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

(6.8)

(6.8)

(5.5)

(5.9)

(7.5)

(7.8)

(7.8)

(7.8)

(7.8)

Exceptionals

 

 

(0.6)

(0.6)

(4.6)

(2.7)

(3.2)

(4.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

61.8

60.9

65.7

67.1

70.8

35.7

81.0

87.8

93.5

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

54.4

53.5

55.6

58.5

60.1

23.8

73.2

80.0

85.7

Tax

 

 

(11.8)

(10.1)

(11.8)

(10.5)

(11.9)

(6.3)

(14.6)

(15.8)

(16.8)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

50.0

49.2

53.9

56.5

58.9

29.4

66.4

72.0

76.7

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

42.6

43.4

43.8

49.1

49.6

18.5

60.0

65.6

70.3

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

198.9

198.9

198.4

199.0

199.3

218.1

244.5

244.5

244.5

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

25.0

24.6

26.9

28.1

29.2

13.3

26.9

29.1

31.0

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

21.4

22.2

22.1

24.7

24.9

8.5

24.5

26.8

28.7

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

10.1

10.1

11.1

11.6

4.0

4.8

9.0

10.0

10.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

41.2

43.4

42.7

41.9

43.0

39.2

41.0

41.0

41.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

19.8

21.8

21.4

20.9

22.1

15.9

21.1

21.1

21.2

Operating Margin (underlying) (%) 

 

16.1

17.9

17.8

17.3

17.7

10.9

16.8

16.9

17.2

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

472.6

 

455.1

520.3

542.4

540.9

780.2

783.2

785.8

Intangible Assets

 

 

371.6

 

356.5

401.9

401.8

393.8

623.0

615.2

607.4

Tangible Assets

 

 

101.0

 

98.6

118.4

140.6

147.1

157.2

168.0

178.4

Investments

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

119.5

 

147.7

141.7

148.2

158.9

179.7

225.1

271.0

Stocks

 

 

52.2

 

53.5

58.1

59.7

52.6

68.5

72.8

75.9

Debtors

 

 

38.9

 

32.6

37.2

40.5

54.8

61.2

64.8

67.3

Cash

 

 

26.5

 

35.7

46.2

47.7

44.1

41.1

76.8

115.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(104.5)

 

(108.8)

(108.7)

(108.1)

(119.1)

(145.6)

(151.3)

(154.9)

Creditors

 

 

(104.5)

 

(108.8)

(108.7)

(108.1)

(119.1)

(145.6)

(151.3)

(154.9)

Short term borrowings

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(200.2)

 

(192.0)

(222.1)

(221.1)

(79.8)

(181.2)

(182.6)

(184.0)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(190.8)

 

(184.1)

(210.4)

(197.7)

(58.9)

(164.9)

(164.9)

(164.9)

Other long term liabilities 

 

(9.4)

 

(7.9)

(11.7)

(23.4)

(20.9)

(16.3)

(17.7)

(19.1)

Net Assets

 

 

287.4

 

302.0

331.2

361.4

500.9

633.1

674.3

717.9

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

86.5

 

79.2

90.0

89.4

61.5

102.6

116.5

122.6

Net Interest

 

 

(7.3)

 

(6.6)

(6.1)

(7.4)

(5.4)

(6.9)

(6.8)

(6.5)

Tax

 

 

(10.1)

 

(12.6)

(11.2)

(12.4)

(8.2)

(6.0)

(14.6)

(15.8)

Capex

 

 

(18.7)

 

(22.0)

(23.2)

(18.0)

(24.5)

(30.0)

(31.0)

(31.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

(42.5)

(12.2)

(1.8)

(237.0)

0.0

0.0

Financing

 

 

(2.9)

 

(0.7)

0.3

2.4

118.5

91.5

(1.5)

(1.5)

Dividends

 

 

(17.1)

 

(21.0)

(22.3)

(23.7)

0.0

(19.2)

(22.9)

(25.2)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

30.5

 

16.3

(15.1)

18.1

140.1

(105.0)

39.7

42.7

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

194.3

 

164.3

148.4

164.2

150.0

14.8

123.8

88.1

Finance leases initiated

 

 

0.0

 

0.0

(1.6)

(3.5)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Other

 

 

(0.5)

 

(0.4)

0.8

(0.4)

(0.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

164.3

 

148.4

164.2

150.0

14.8

123.8

88.1

49.4

Lease finance (under IFRS 16) 

 

 

 

 

 

14.8

12.9

12.9

12.9

12.9

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Continuing operations.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

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1185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Genuit Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Genuit Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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