Prima BioMed — Preliminary LAG-3 combo data in breast cancer

Prima BioMed — Preliminary LAG-3 combo data in breast cancer

Preliminary efficacy data, which Prima BioMed presented at ASCO from the 15-patient, safety run-in phase of its AIPAC study, showed sustained immune activation and an encouraging 47% tumour response rate in breast cancer following IMP321 plus paclitaxel combination therapy. Recruitment in the randomised Phase IIb component of AIPAC is ongoing, with top-line data likely by mid-2019. Efficacy data from the final two cohorts in the TACTI-mel trial of IMP321 plus Keytruda in melanoma are expected in H217 and H118 respectively. The 47% AIPAC response rate is in line with Phase I studies and consistent with our expectations, so we leave our valuation unchanged at A$252m (12c per share).

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Prima BioMed

Preliminary LAG-3 combo data in breast cancer

ASCO update

Pharma & biotech

23 June 2017

Price

A$0.03

Market cap

A$62m

US$0.76/A$

Gross cash (A$m) at 31 March 2017

13.9

Shares in issue

2,073.1m

Free float

93%

Code

PRR

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

NASDAQ

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.2)

(9.1)

(33.3)

Rel (local)

(2.1)

(9.3)

(37.9)

52-week high/low

A$0.05

A$0.03

Business description

Prima BioMed is an ASX-listed biotechnology company focused on cancer immunotherapy. Its pipeline is based on three products using a LAG-3 immune control system: IMP321 for cancer chemo-immunotherapy and partnered products IMP731 (GSK) and IMP701 (Novartis).

Next events

TACTI-mel cohort 2 safety and activity data

H217

TACTI-mel cohort 3 safety and activity data

H118

IMP761 preclinical data

2017

Analysts

Dr Dennis Hulme

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Prima BioMed is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Preliminary efficacy data, which Prima BioMed presented at ASCO from the 15-patient, safety run-in phase of its AIPAC study, showed sustained immune activation and an encouraging 47% tumour response rate in breast cancer following IMP321 plus paclitaxel combination therapy. Recruitment in the randomised Phase IIb component of AIPAC is ongoing, with top-line data likely by mid-2019. Efficacy data from the final two cohorts in the TACTI-mel trial of IMP321 plus Keytruda in melanoma are expected in H217 and H118 respectively. The 47% AIPAC response rate is in line with Phase I studies and consistent with our expectations, so we leave our valuation unchanged at A$252m (12c per share).

Year
end

Revenue
(A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS*
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/15

1.3

(12.9)

(0.9)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/16

1.9

(13.7)

(0.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/17e

1.3

(12.7)

(0.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/18e

10.6

(4.0)

(0.2)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Encouraging response rate in AIPAC run-in

The 47% response rate in 15 metastatic breast cancer patients treated with IMP321 in combination with paclitaxel during the safety run-in study was similar to the 50% response rate reported in a previous Phase I trial, and higher than the c 30% response rate seen in published studies of weekly paclitaxel in breast cancer. Top-line PFS data from the ongoing 226-patient, randomised Phase IIb component of AIPAC could mature sometime between late 2018 and mid-2019; patients receive either 30mg of IMP321 or placebo, in combination with weekly paclitaxel. IMP321 is a LAG-3-based, antigen-presenting cell activator that enhances immune responses.

Efficacy data from final TACTI-mel cohort likely H118

Prima’s TACTI-mel trial is using IMP321 to enhance efficacy in melanoma patients who have had a suboptimal initial response to the PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitor Keytruda. As we previously reported, one of the six patients (17%) in the first cohort (1mg) experienced a complete response (CR). Recruitment in the third and highest (30mg) dose cohort is expected to complete in Q317. We expect to see efficacy data from the second cohort in H217 and from the final cohort in H118.

Valuation: Unchanged at A$252m, 12c per share

Our valuation is unchanged at A$252m, which is equal to 12c per share on an undiluted basis or 8c per share after accounting for dilution from options, warrants and convertible notes. Guidance is that the cash balance of A$13.9m at 31 March will be sufficient to fund operations through Q1 CY18, excluding any milestone payments from partners Novartis and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). Milestone revenue (we model ~A$9m in FY18) would extend the cash runway.

Initial AIPAC response data presented at ASCO

Prima presented encouraging data from the safety run-in phase of its AIPAC Phase IIb breast cancer trial at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) meeting held in Chicago on 2-6 June 2017. The trial is testing the effect of combining the IMP321 soluble LAG-3 fusion protein with paclitaxel in women with hormone receptor positive metastatic breast cancer (mBC) who have not previously received chemotherapy for metastatic disease. Women with HER2 positive tumours who are eligible for treatment with trastuzumab (Herceptin) are excluded from the trial.

In the safety-run-in phase 15 women were treated with either 6mg or 30mg of IMP321 in combination with weekly paclitaxel chemotherapy (80mg/m2 in three weeks out of every four). Both doses of IMP321 were found to be safe and well tolerated when used in combination with paclitaxel, with no dose-limiting toxicities reported. Cytokine release syndrome grade 1 was the only serious adverse event related to IMP321 (occurring twice in the same patient in the higher dose group). There were no grade 4 (life-threatening) adverse events related to either IMP321 or paclitaxel. The dose escalation committee confirmed the 30mg dose as the recommended Phase II dose (RP2D) for use in the randomised, placebo-controlled component of the trial.

AIPAC response rate compares favourably to weekly paclitaxel

The pooled preliminary efficacy data from the 15 patients in the safety run-in study are summarised in Exhibit 1. The overall response rate (ORR) was 47% and the disease control rate (DCR, tumour response or stable disease) was 87%. The 47% ORR from the AIPAC safety run-in was consistent with the 50% response rate reported from an earlier Phase I trial,1 which tested the 6mg dose of IMP321 in combination with weekly paclitaxel in 30 patients.

  Brignone et al. Journal of Translational Medicine 2010, 8:71

Exhibit 1: Tumour responses to IMP321/paclitaxel in open-label, run-in phase of AIPAC

Response parameter

%

count

Complete response

0%

(0/15)

Partial response

47%

(7/15)

Stable disease

40%

(6/15)

Progressive disease

13%

(2/15)

Overall response rate

47%

(7/15)

Disease control rate

87%

(13/15)

Source: Prima BioMed poster presentation for Abstract 1062 at ASCO 2017

The company has previously compared the ORR in IMP321/paclitaxel studies to a randomised Phase III study of weekly paclitaxel (days 1, 8 and 15 of a 28-day cycle) as first-line therapy in HER2-negative subjects (Gray2 et al. 2009), which reported an ORR in patients treated with single-agent paclitaxel of 23%.

  Gray et al, J ClinOncol. 2009 Oct 20;27(30):4966-72.

We have identified a Phase II study sponsored by Amgen (Martin3 et al 2011) with a similar design and paclitaxel regimen to the study above. The ORR in HER2-negative patients receiving weekly paclitaxel as first-line chemotherapy treatment for metastatic or locally advanced breast cancer in this study was 41%.

  Martin et al, Lancet Oncol 2011; 12: 369–76

The average of the response rate in the Gray and Martin studies was 32%. While acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in cross-trial comparisons, it is encouraging to see that the response rate to IMP321/paclitaxel combination therapy is higher than the response rate to paclitaxel monotherapy in either of these two trials.

We note that there were minor differences between the Gray and Martin studies and Prima’s trials. The published studies used a slightly higher dose of paclitaxel (90mg/m2 vs 80mg/m2) and about 30% of subjects in the two published studies cited above were hormone receptor negative whereas these patients are ineligible for enrolment in the AIPAC study. Despite these differences, the two published studies are likely to be a reasonable guide to the response rate that could be anticipated in the control arm of the Phase IIb AIPAC study.

Evidence of sustained immune activation in AIPAC

Prima also presented evidence of sustained proliferation and activation of circulating white blood cells over the course of IMP321/paclitaxel combination therapy. This included sustained increases in circulating antigen-presenting cells (APCs) and subsequent activation of effector cells including CD8 T-cells and natural killer cells.

Exhibit 2 shows that the treatment led to proliferation of APCs, including monocytes and dendritic cells, which was sustained over the 24-week course of treatment (panels A and B). Panels C and D show that injection of IMP321 prompted activation of circulating monocytes from the very first dose, and that monocyte activation was higher at week 22 than at the start of the study.

These data show that IMP321 was effective at activating APCs, in line with its proposed mechanism of action.

Exhibit 2: Sustained increases in number and activation status of circulating APCs

Source: Prima BioMed poster presentation for Abstract 1062 at ASCO 2017

Prima also showed that the activation of the APC network by IMP321 was associated with sustained increases in absolute numbers of effector cells like CD8 T-cells and natural killer cells, as well as sustained increase in Th1 helper T-cell biomarkers like IFN gamma and IP-10.

These changes are suggestive of a stronger cytotoxic cellular response and improved helper T-cell immune status, which are both needed for a potent immune response against the tumour cells.

Exhibit 3: Sustained increases in effector cells and Th1 biomarkers

Source: Prima BioMed poster presentation for Abstract 1062 at ASCO 2017

Prima’s chief medical officer Dr Frédéric Triebel pointed out that the increase in APC numbers and their activation has not previously been seen with other immune checkpoint inhibitors. He also viewed the increased numbers of CD8 T-cells and natural killer cells and the effect on Th1 cells to be indicators of potential efficacy of IMP321, as these are known to be related to anti-tumour efficacy in patients.

Recruitment ongoing in randomised component of AIPAC

Prima dosed the first patient in the randomised Phase IIb component of AIPAC in January 2017. The randomised double-blind phase will enrol 226 patients, with half receiving standard paclitaxel chemotherapy on days 1, 8 and 15, plus 30mg of IMP321 on days 2 and 16 of each four-week cycle; the other half will receive paclitaxel plus placebo.

The record of the AIPAC trial on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02614833) indicates that final data for the progression-free survival (PFS) primary endpoint are expected to be collected in June 2019. Depending on the recruitment rate and PFS observed, we estimate that top-line PFS data could mature sometime between late 2018 and mid-2019.

The European regulator (EMA) has indicated that this trial could be sufficient to support a marketing authorisation if it achieves certain (undisclosed) clinical endpoints.

Keytruda approval validates chemo-immunotherapy approach

In May the US FDA granted accelerated approval for the immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) Keytruda (pembrolizumab) in combination with the chemotherapy drugs pemetrexed plus carboplatin as a front-line treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The Keytruda/chemo combo elicited a 55% ORR vs 29% for the chemo combo alone. Median PFS was 13 months for the Keytruda combo vs 8.9 months for chemo alone.

This is the first approval for chemotherapy plus immunotherapy combination treatment.

Part of the rationale for the chemo-immunotherapy approach is that the cellular debris created when the chemotherapy drug kills cancer cells stimulates an immune response, and that this immune response can be strengthened by including an immunotherapy drug in the treatment regimen. In the case of ICI drugs like Keytruda the immunotherapy strengthens the immune response by taking the brakes off the immune effector cells including cytotoxic T-cells.

Prima is similarly seeking to strengthen the immune response by combining chemotherapy with its IMP321 APC activator. In this case IMP321 acts earlier in the process by up-regulating the extent to which APC cells process the cellular debris and present tumour antigens to T- and B-cells, thereby strengthening the overall immune response.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

A$'000s

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Year end 30 June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

2,020

1,336

1,949

1,253

10,564

R&D expenses

0

(8,952)

(7,060)

(7,271)

(7,489)

SG&A expenses

2,020

(5,723)

(6,983)

(7,122)

(7,336)

EBITDA

 

 

(14,003)

(13,345)

(12,093)

(13,141)

(4,262)

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

 

(14,395)

(13,671)

(12,275)

(13,144)

(4,269)

Intangible Amortisation

(54)

(1,015)

(1,993)

(1,877)

(1,708)

Exceptionals

0

(18,338)

(47,468)

0

0

Operating Profit

(14,450)

(33,024)

(61,736)

(15,021)

(5,976)

Other

407

538

(1,716)

0

0

Net Interest

713

192

256

418

244

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(13,275)

(12,940)

(13,735)

(12,727)

(4,025)

Profit Before Tax (IFRS)

 

 

(13,330)

(32,294)

(63,196)

(14,603)

(5,732)

Tax

(14)

142

1,181

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(13,289)

(12,798)

(12,554)

(12,727)

(4,025)

Profit After Tax (IFRS)

(13,343)

(32,152)

(62,015)

(14,603)

(5,732)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

1,220.1

1,490.1

2,236.3

2,061.6

2,073.1

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(1.1)

(0.9)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.2)

EPS - IFRS (c)

 

 

(1.1)

(2.2)

(2.8)

(0.7)

(0.3)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

694

22,960

20,883

19,031

17,347

Intangible Assets

117

22,662

20,852

18,975

17,267

Tangible Assets

577

298

32

56

79

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

24,684

8,023

21,671

8,919

4,871

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

196

315

168

168

168

Cash

23,200

6,760

20,880

8,128

4,080

Other

1,287

948

623

623

623

Current Liabilities

 

 

(2,771)

(4,380)

(1,472)

(1,472)

(1,472)

Creditors

(2,669)

(2,791)

(1,444)

(1,444)

(1,444)

Short term borrowings

0

(1,508)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Short term leases

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(102)

(80)

(28)

(28)

(28)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(15)

(1,914)

(5,765)

(5,765)

(5,765)

Long term borrowings incl. conv. note

0

0

(5,027)

(5,027)

(5,027)

Long term leases

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(15)

(1,914)

(737)

(737)

(737)

Net Assets

 

 

22,592

24,690

35,317

20,714

14,981

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(14,908)

(7,785)

(11,594)

(13,141)

(4,262)

Net Interest

705

0

284

418

244

Tax

(24)

(2)

0

0

0

Capex

(104)

(49)

(27)

(28)

(30)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(20,913)

130

0

0

Financing

6,845

7,745

27,229

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(158)

(164)

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(7,643)

(21,168)

16,022

(12,752)

(4,048)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(30,023)

(23,200)

(5,251)

(15,852)

(3,100)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

820

3,220

(5,421)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(23,200)

(5,251)

(15,852)

(3,100)

948

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has
been commissioned by Prima BioMed and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has
been commissioned by Prima BioMed and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Consumer

Jackpotjoy — Earn-out paid; another milestone achieved

The major Gamesys earn-out period finished in March 2017 and, as expected, Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) has announced a £94.2m payment for its penultimate earn-out. There is a further c £44m due for the Spanish assets (Botemania) in June 2018, which should be comfortably covered by operating cash flow. Although adjusted net debt/EBITDA of c 4.0x remains high, we expect significant deleverage from 2018. The stock has recovered some ground recently, but continues to trade at a significant discount to peers, with 2018e multiples of 6.8x EV/EBITDA and 5.7x P/E. Given the company’s leading market position and robust cash flow generation, we would expect a re-rating as the market regains confidence in the business model. Our forecasts remain unchanged.

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