Investment approach: Finding best ideas in-house and externally
ADIG aims to generate highly attractive long-term capital and income returns by pursuing a truly diversified multi-asset approach, using quoted and unquoted investments, with no geographical or sector restrictions. The core of the philosophy is to provide investors with long-term investment opportunities in hard-to-access asset classes with different risk/return drivers. Robust risk management is embedded in the ASI multi-asset team’s investment approach, not just through maintaining an appropriate level of portfolio diversification, but also through the use of detailed due diligence, specialist quantitative risk tools, ongoing scenario analysis, liquidity stress tests and peer review of investment ideas within the investment team.
Asset allocation is flexible. ADIG’s board and managers believe equities should form a core, but not dominant part of any growth or income portfolio, leading to a target weighting of 20–30% across listed and private equity. Given their current historically low yields and inflated prices, developed market government bonds and investment-grade credit are not expected to feature in the near term. However, emerging market bonds are viewed as a more attractive area. ADIG’s portfolio contains both ASI-managed and external funds, with the expectation that c 60% will be in internally managed funds or direct investments, and c 40% in third-party managed funds.
ASI has a global investment platform with over 1,000 investment professionals across teams specialising in quantitative and active equities, private equity, fixed income (emerging market debt, high-yield bonds, loans, government bonds and investment-grade credit), property (direct and multi-manager), infrastructure, real assets, hedge funds and other alternative asset classes. ADIG may access these teams’ expertise either via pooled funds or direct investment sub-portfolios. In addition, Foster’s many years as a manager of investment trust portfolios helps to inform third-party manager selection, particularly as regards listed funds.
ADIG’s investment process is broadly split into three stages:
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Strategic framework setting, based on expected returns for each asset class as modelled by ASI’s economic and thematic research teams. These encompass economic forecasts, assumptions about historical trends and mean reversion, and implied market views, focusing on three-, five- and 10-year horizons. This framework helps ADIG’s managers to set broad asset allocations, drawing on the research teams’ view on investment returns across cycles, and of where potential opportunities exist to rotate from expensive to cheap assets.
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‘Best idea’ identification, drawing on ideas from within the diversified multi-asset team and across ASI’s specialist alternatives teams. A detailed review of the most promising opportunities is presented to the ADIG investment team, which thoroughly cross-examines the investment case and identifies areas for further study. If approved, the ideas are added to a ‘buy list’, which forms the basis of portfolio construction and is regularly reviewed to ensure the thesis for each investment remains valid.
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Implementation, with each investment given a weighting in the portfolio that reflects the relative attractiveness of the investment case, as well as the balance between traditional and alternative assets, and the liquidity profile of the portfolio. The investment team meets weekly to discuss the portfolio, and it is formally reviewed each month by a wider group, including ASI’s performance and risk teams.
The resulting portfolio is expected to comprise a range of diversifying assets drawn from three principal headings:
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Equity-driven assets – developed and emerging market equities, and private equity.
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Alternative assets – high-yield bonds, loans, emerging market debt, alternative financing, royalties, asset-backed securities, property, infrastructure, commodities, absolute return investments, insurance-linked securities, farmland, shipping and aircraft leasing.
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Low-return assets – gold, government bonds, investment-grade credit and tail-risk hedging.
No more than 40% of total assets, at the time of investment, may be held in unlisted alternative assets. Unless currency exposure is part of the investment rationale (such as for local currency emerging market debt), foreign currency exposure is typically hedged back to sterling, although active currency positions may be taken in order to enhance the risk/return profile of the portfolio.
ADIG’s portfolio managers determine appropriate target portfolio allocations for each asset class based on five-year forecasts for annual total and income returns (see Exhibit 2), also taking into account available investment opportunities and the spread of liquidity across the portfolio. There is a balance between accessing the most attractive illiquid or long-term investment opportunities and retaining the flexibility to add value by altering the asset allocation. The portfolio is currently divided c 56%/44% between Aberdeen-managed and third-party strategies, versus a target split (when long-term investments are fully drawn) of c 60%/40%. It is expected over the long term that c 40% of ADIG’s portfolio will offer daily liquidity, with c 60% offering quarterly liquidity or better. Currently c 84% of the portfolio has at least quarterly liquidity (including 67% with daily liquidity), while c 16% has annual or less frequent liquidity.
Exhibit 2: Target portfolio income and return expectations as at end-August 2019
(% unless stated) |
|
Five-year forecasts (% pa) |
Target portfolio (pp pa) |
Asset category |
Target portfolio allocation |
Total return expectations |
Income expectations |
Return contribution |
Income contribution |
Emerging market debt |
18.0 |
5.6 |
7.0 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
Listed equity |
17.0 |
4.8 |
2.9 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
Infrastructure |
16.0 |
11.0 |
4.5 |
1.8 |
0.7 |
Asset-backed securities |
16.0 |
7.2 |
6.5 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
Special opportunities |
12.0 |
12.0 |
5.4 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
Property |
9.5 |
9.0 |
1.5 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
Private equity |
6.0 |
10.0 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
Insurance-linked securities |
4.0 |
7.5 |
7.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
Real assets (farmland) |
1.0 |
8.0 |
10.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
Global loans |
0.0 |
3.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Absolute return |
0.0 |
4.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Tactical asset allocation |
0.0 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
Cash |
0.5 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total (gross of fees) |
100.0 |
|
|
8.4 |
4.7 |
Total (gross of fees and gearing) |
|
|
|
9.3 |
|
Total (net of fees) |
|
|
|
8.4 |
|
Total (net of fees, above Libor) |
|
|
|
7.4 |
|
Source: Aberdeen Diversified Income and Growth Trust, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes litigation finance, aircraft leasing, shipping, marketplace lending, healthcare royalties.
As shown in Exhibit 2, the expected annual returns (net of fees and measured over a five-year horizon) from the target portfolio are 7.4pp above the five-year forecast Libor rate, comfortably exceeding ADIG’s aim of returning Libor +5.5% pa. However, the current portfolio is at or below the target weighting in the three asset classes with the highest return expectations (special opportunities, infrastructure and private equity). This is partly owing to the long-term nature of commitments to these assets, many of which are not yet fully drawn.
Current portfolio positioning
At 31 August 2019, there were 44 holdings in ADIG’s portfolio, with the top 10 making up 51.8% of the total, a slight decrease in concentration from 54.3% a year earlier. 15 of the 44 are longer-term investments, which currently (based on drawn funds rather than commitments) account for 21.6% of the portfolio, compared with a target allocation (once fully invested) of 41.3%. ADIG’s managers are happy with the roster of unlisted investments as it now stands, and do not envisage committing capital to any new longer-term investments until the existing investments have made substantial realisations.
Foster says the team has been pleased with the recent pace of investment by the longer-term holdings, and there has been some continued recycling from listed to unlisted funds. In terms of portfolio activity, ADIG has exited Foresight Solar Income Fund and substantially sold its holding in The Renewables Investment Group, and has recycled the proceeds into SL Capital Infrastructure Fund II. Foster says the progress towards the target weighting in longer-term funds is illustrated by this fund’s recent investments, which include two district heating systems in Finland, liquid storage in Europe and some Central European solar assets.
Exhibit 3: Portfolio asset allocation vs target allocations (% unless stated)
|
Portfolio end-August 2019 |
Portfolio end-August 2018 |
Change (pp) |
Target end-August 2019* |
Actual weight vs target (pp) |
Emerging market bonds |
24.6 |
20.1 |
4.5 |
18.0 |
6.6 |
Equities |
18.2 |
19.5 |
(1.3) |
17.0 |
1.2 |
Asset-backed securities |
15.8 |
15.9 |
(0.1) |
15.0 |
0.8 |
Infrastructure |
14.2 |
11.0 |
3.2 |
16.0 |
(1.8) |
Property |
7.8 |
5.2 |
2.6 |
9.5 |
(1.7) |
Special opportunities |
6.4 |
4.8 |
1.6 |
12.0 |
(5.6) |
Insurance-linked securities |
4.0 |
8.0 |
(4.0) |
4.0 |
0.0 |
Private equity |
3.8 |
3.3 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
(0.7) |
Loans |
2.4 |
5.2 |
(2.8) |
0.0 |
2.4 |
Real assets (farmland) |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
(0.2) |
Absolute return |
0.5 |
3.3 |
(2.8) |
2.5 |
(2.0) |
UK government bonds |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
100.0 |
|
Source: Aberdeen Diversified Income and Growth Trust, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Target allocations last changed at end-January 2019.
Elsewhere in the infrastructure allocation, Foster says Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Partners II now has five assets in construction or moving into operation. The now-complete Perth Stadium was owned jointly with John Laing Group, which has sold its stake to the Australian life insurance company AMP Group, thus establishing a third-party valuation. The manager adds: ‘This fund has preferred bidder status on a number of projects, primarily in transport. The same team also runs the Andean Social Infrastructure fund, which is yet to make an investment but is pretty close to signing a deal on an operational project. They are using their expertise from other countries and applying it to South America, targeting double-digit annual returns.’
Foster reports that the two ASI-managed unlisted property holdings – Aberdeen Property Secondaries Partners II and Aberdeen European Residential Opportunities Fund – are both making good progress. ‘Aberdeen Property Secondaries Partners II now has eight investments, up from three when we got involved, and it has already had a number of profitable realisations. It has recently made new investments in funds involved in Indian offices, Australian residential property, Spanish residential property and European logistics, as well as a small portfolio of funds in the final stages of wind-up.’ He adds that the team signed five deals over the summer, taking ADIG’s commitment close to being fully drawn. The Aberdeen European Residential Opportunities Fund, which converts commercial buildings into residential, now has 11 projects, in Denmark, Germany, the UK, Sweden and Finland. Foster comments: ‘There have been one or two where costs have come in higher than expected, so there has been something of a J-curve effect that has held back short-term returns, but we are confident it will deliver double-digit annual returns over the life of the investment.’
The portfolio managers see physical assets – property, infrastructure, transport (aircraft leasing and shipping) and real assets (farmland) – as ideally suited to ADIG’s investment approach, in that they are long term, offer attractive risk-adjusted returns and add considerably to portfolio diversification. Over time, they expect most of these investments to deliver double-digit percentage annual returns, net of fees. ADIG’s physical assets exposure has increased from 13.1% of net assets at the start of FY18 to 24.1% at 31 August 2019, as investment commitments have been drawn down and new investments made.
In private equity, the trust has recently made a $25m commitment to Fund IV of the Aberdeen Standard Secondary Opportunities Fund (SOF), which identifies stakes in maturing private equity funds that are nearing the end of their life, and buys them at a discount from investors who wish to recycle their capital rather than waiting for an exit. Realisations from existing mature private equity funds managed by HarbourVest, Mesirow and Maj (a Danish small-cap specialist) will be recycled into SOF. Foster says ADIG’s other private equity investment, a co-investment in aircraft leasing company TrueNoord, is also performing strongly.
The target allocation to insurance-linked securities was reduced from 8.0% to 4.0% following the issues at Markel CATCo, which now intends to wind up its listed funds and the 2018 unlisted fund, which makes up the bulk of ADIG’s exposure. Foster says the ADIG team is considering whether to invest in a new insurance-linked programme Markel Corp is launching, look for another manager in the sector, or recycle capital into other areas. ‘Ultimately, we like the uncorrelated nature of the asset class, and premiums continue to rise, but it has had a bad run over the last year,’ says the manager. He explains that currently about half of ADIG’s insurance-linked investments are held as collateral against increases in 2017/18 claims as these are finalised. The balance is on risk for the remainder of 2019. At the end of this year, any 2019 investments that are not involved in claims will be returned.
In the more liquid part of the portfolio, emerging market debt (EMD) remains the largest overall allocation, at 24.6% versus a target weighting of 18%. Foster says: ‘We have a well diversified emerging and frontier markets portfolio, generating mid-single digit returns, which is much more attractive than developed market bonds yielding, in some cases, less than zero. EMD is one of those markets which only appear in the headlines when the news is bad, but we think it offers diversification and attractive returns, and it has proved that over quite a long period.’ He adds that as the weighting is above the long-term target, the team has been taking profits and using the funds raised to invest in unlisted commitments.
Regarding the equity allocation (which has been reduced from 19.5% of the portfolio to 18.2% over the 12 months to 31 August 2019, versus a target weighting of 17.0%), the manager says that equities generally are fully valued but value-focused equities appear good value, ‘so we are sticking with our approach but keeping the equity weighting low’. He adds that the Aberdeen Smart Beta Low Volatility Global Equity Income Fund, which uses a factor-based approach including a bias to value, did not outperform at the end of last year as might have been expected when the equity market fell, and so far has not recovered to anywhere near the same extent. However, he argues, ‘with the valuation disparity between growth and value equities now close to record levels, now is not the time to change to a different equity approach and lock in the underperformance’.
See Exhibit 9 for a full portfolio listing (including target allocations for longer-term funds) at 31 August 2019.