Euromoney Institutional Investor — Q3 in line

Euromoney Institutional Investor — Q3 in line

Euromoney’s Q3 trading update indicated overall trading performance in line with management expectations and we have not changed our FY19 estimates. The recent capital markets day took a deeper dive into the Investment Research and Fastmarkets operations and how management is working on transforming them into ‘3.0’ B2B information service businesses, built into clients’ workflows. Given the group’s earnings resilience, subscription base and attractive cash conversion, the rating disparity with peers still appears excessive.

Fiona Orford-Williams

Written by

Fiona Orford-Williams

Director, TMT

Euromoney Institutional Investor

Q3 in line

Trading update and CMD

Media

19 July 2019

Price

1,290.00p

Market cap

£1,409m

$1.24/£

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2019

41.2

Shares in issue

109.2m

Free float

99.0%

Code

ERM

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.9

4.4

(7.9)

Rel (local)

4.2

4.3

(4.8)

52-week high/low

1,414.00p

1,132.00p

Business description

Euromoney Institutional Investor (ERM) is a global, multi-brand information business that provides critical data, price reporting, insight, analysis and must-attend events to financial services, commodities, telecoms and legal markets.

Next events

Final results

21 November 19

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Euromoney Institutional Investor is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Euromoney’s Q3 trading update indicated overall trading performance in line with management expectations and we have not changed our FY19 estimates. The recent capital markets day took a deeper dive into the Investment Research and Fastmarkets operations and how management is working on transforming them into ‘3.0’ B2B information service businesses, built into clients’ workflows. Given the group’s earnings resilience, subscription base and attractive cash conversion, the rating disparity with peers still appears excessive.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/17

428.4

106.5

76.4

30.6

16.9

2.4

09/18

414.1

109.2

81.3

32.4

16.9

2.5

09/19e

398.0

99.0

73.5

34.0

17.6

2.6

09/20e

418.0

105.0

77.9

35.5

16.6

2.8

09/21e

445.1

117.3

87.1

37.0

14.8

2.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

PDMI still leads revenue performance

Q319 revenue trends followed the recent pattern with Asset Management soft (-9%) and Pricing, Data and Market Intelligence (PDMI) strong, ahead by 6%, up from +3% in H119. The quarterly progression by segment and revenue type is shown below. Asset Management (which comprises both Investment Research and the Institutional Investor brand) remains a challenged market, but the pace of decline is reportedly slowing. Moves to cut costs here have allowed margins to hold up, as well as giving some scope to reinvest in the sales function and upgrading the product set. Having had an exceptionally strong Events performance in H119, Banking & Finance reverted to a more usual trading pattern, up 1%.

Capital recycling

Group strategy is predicated on recycling capital to improve the quality of the assets and drive higher revenue growth. Some of this is self-help; some is M&A-driven. Cash on the balance sheet was £41.2m as at end June (up from £29.3m at end March), with the improvement partly stemming from further Mining Indaba proceeds of £8.7m. The group has an undrawn committed revolving credit facility of £240m, with an uncommitted £130m accordion, giving plenty of firepower for potential acquisitions, as well as resource for organic investment. Price reporting agencies that could fit into the developing Fastmarkets brand umbrella would obviously be an attractive option.

Valuation: Substantial discount persists

ERM’s shares are up 8% since the start of 2019, having peaked at 1,414p at the time of the interim results in May and since drifting back. They remain valued at a significant discount to global financial data peers, which currently trade at a FY1 EV/EBITDA of 16.7x and 14.6x FY2. Parity on the average of FY1 and FY2 EV/EBITDA would imply a 1,455p share price, 13% ahead of the current level. Given the earnings resilience, subscription base and attractive cash conversion, this disparity still appears excessive.

Q3 showing similar trends to H1

The brief trading update indicated that performance was overall in line with management expectations and consequently we have not changed our estimates, although it may be the case that the mix that we have anticipated within the figures may not be completely aligned.

Exhibit 1: Quarterly progression by revenue type

Year-on-year change

Q119

Q219

Q319

Subscription & Content

1%

(0%)

(1%)

Advertising

(1%)

(5%)

(6%)

Events

3%

3%

3%

Total

1%

1%

0%

Source: Euromoney Institutional Investor

The Subscription and content revenues (62% of H119 revenues) dipped in Q3, weighed by the performance of the Asset Management activity. Events (30% of H119 revenues) had another good quarter, helped by the Telecoms sector and a rebound at Fastmarkets events. By segment, the structural and cyclical issues persist at Asset Management, with the subscription book of business holding up reasonably well, but client revenues apportioned by votes falling away as those budgets are reallocated post MiFID II. Institutional Investor also continued to be weak (FY18 revenues: 1%) due to Brexit impacting the European memberships sold out of the UK, as flagged at the time of the H1 results.

Exhibit 2: Progression by segment

Year-on-year change

H119

Q319

Asset Management

(3%)

(9%)

PDMI

3%

6%

Banking & Finance

4%

1%

Total

1%

0%

Source: Euromoney Institutional Investor

Cash conversion remains strong, and we model a further increase in Q4, with a figure of £81m projected for the September year end.

Positioning for market conditions

The format of the capital markets day gave the opportunity for segmental management from Investment Research, recent acquisition BoardEx and Fastmarkets to present their businesses in greater detail. It is notable that there is no attempt by management to skate over the market and internal challenges in Investment Research.

Investment Research

Key takeaways from the presentation on Investment Research:

MiFID II has permanently altered the landscape

The shift from active to passive fund management has had an impact on fees and led to a re-evaluation of budgets and value.

Independent research remains an important part of the decision framework.

Sell-side providers are under the most pressure and it is from them that BCA and Ned Davis Research (NDR) are most likely to be able to win share.

Investment Research has been using the capital it has released through cutting costs to give a clearer market proposition, improved product and greater sales resource.

ERM has honed its brands and brand positioning to highlight the relative strengths of BCA Research and NDR. BCA is the larger of the two, with a book of business (the annualised value of its contracts at any point) of $71m, 2.5x that of NDR and a slightly higher average contract value. Between the two, management reckons they account for 22% of the total independent research market, leaving plenty of addressable (fragmented) market to target. Asia is identified as a key area of interest. BCA focuses more on macro and generates around half its revenues in the US. NDR’s largest line of business is in delivering insights to institutional investors and wealth managers and it is this latter segment that is growing the fastest.

The division has restructured to facilitate the two brands sharing common functions such as marketing, finance and technology, but retaining separate sales, research and HR functions.

Analysis of revenues and deal flow allowed management to identify that the weakness lay with new business generation rather than pricing. The clearer market proposition and revamped websites and touchpoints should also professionalise and modernise the client interface. BCA’s three-month moving average of new subscription sales in the US is now picking up.

The next stage is to develop more of what the CEO describes as ‘3.0’ business – ie providing information in the formats where it can be embedded into the client’s workflow and be an integral part of the industry structure. For example, NDR is starting to provide indices for investment vehicles such as ETFs and BCA is providing interactive charting.

BoardEx

The presentation and demonstration of the BoardEx platform was more to give a better understanding of this asset, which was acquired in February 2019 for $87.3m in cash, representing 3.5x FY18 revenues. This is a global C-Suite relationship mapping tool, with information about 1.2 million individuals and 1.8 million organisational profiles, going back for 19 years.

All data is from public sources such as press releases, public announcements and corporate websites, verified by a team of 340+ researchers in Chennai, India. Algorithms identify the likely strength of relationships (people who served on the same boards will score more strongly than those who attended the same university). The application can be integrated into clients’ CRM and in-house platforms, including Salesforce.

Key target markets include financial and professional services, for applications that can range from business development, through know-your-customer and towards predictive analysis.

The pricing structure is based on enterprise, rather than seat, licensing, with average revenue per client around the $43k mark, with nearly half of licences on a multi-year basis. It had 360 clients as at end December 2018.

Being part of the Euromoney Group will accelerate its expansion, particularly across the financial sectors.

Fastmarkets

Fastmarkets comprises four elements: price reporting (it assesses over 5.5k prices); market intelligence and forecasting; analytics; and events. The company’s own video, below, provides a clear description of how the pricing process comes together.

Exhibit 3: Fastmarkets pricing procedures

Source: Euromoney Institutional Investor

It charges for the data on the basis on which the client uses it, ie for primary use such as setting benchmarks for transactions and valuing inventory or secondary uses, such as analysing market trends or tracking exposure to market movements and by how crucial it is to the underlying business purpose. Frequent use for core business decisions will require a core data licence; regular use for non-core decisions might require a secondary licence, whereas ad-hoc usage could be better covered through a subscription arrangement.

So far 25% of (160) key accounts in metals have been migrated onto licence arrangements; 5% of clients across the Fastmarkets segment. This is early days and there is obviously considerable scope to drive this conversion. Multi-year deals and low levels of churn should mean greatly increased visibility – and quality – of earnings. IOSCO certification in three prices is a very good indicator of the quality of the data and compliance in how it is collected and collated.

There are plenty of opportunities to drive the licensing revenues on existing products, through more cross-sales and better use of CRM and by moving more towards the buyers as well as the producers of the relevant commodities. The business can also extend through developing new products, analytics and benchmarks in existing verticals. There are also opportunities to derive royalties from exchange contracts referencing Fastmarkets’ prices, as well as adding new commodity verticals to the existing platform. In total, 14 exchange futures contracts are already trading, with three more due to launch shortly, including the well-publicised lithium contract for London Metal Exchange.

The platform allows for flexible dashboards, configurable by the client according to their needs and capable of being incorporated into their workflow and so clearly falling within the ‘3.0’ business description.

The other businesses reported within PDMI (Telecoms, Specialist Information) were not covered on this occasion, nor the Banking & Finance segment or Institutional Investor.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£m

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

Year end 30 September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

428.4

414.1

398.0

418.0

445.1

Cost of Sales

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Profit

428.4

414.1

398.0

418.0

445.1

EBITDA

 

 

110.3

112.9

102.2

108.2

120.7

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

107.1

110.7

99.8

105.7

118.0

Intangible Amortisation

(20.8)

(22.7)

(24.0)

(24.0)

(24.0)

Exceptionals

(31.3)

81.4

14.0

0.0

0.0

Capital Appreciation Plan

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit before ass's & fin. except'ls

55.1

169.4

89.8

81.7

94.0

Associates

3.3

1.1

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

Net Interest

(4.0)

(2.6)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Exceptional financials

(13.7)

(6.6)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

106.5

109.2

99.0

105.0

117.3

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

40.7

161.2

89.0

81.1

93.4

Tax

(19.8)

(21.6)

(19.8)

(21.0)

(23.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

86.6

87.6

79.2

84.0

93.9

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

37.3

109.7

69.2

60.1

69.9

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

112.5

107.4

107.5

107.5

107.5

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

76.4

81.3

73.5

77.9

87.1

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

18.1

129.8

64.3

55.8

64.9

Dividend per share (p)

30.6

32.4

34.0

35.5

37.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

25.8

27.3

25.7

25.9

27.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

25.0

26.7

25.1

25.3

26.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

648.8

615.6

641.1

616.2

591.3

Intangible Assets

594.0

588.2

621.1

596.6

572.1

Tangible Assets

24.4

23.1

15.7

15.3

14.9

Investments

30.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

Current Assets

 

 

127.8

165.7

155.4

210.7

272.1

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

64.5

68.3

69.7

73.1

77.9

Cash

4.4

78.3

81.0

132.8

189.4

Other

58.9

19.1

4.7

4.7

4.7

Current Liabilities

 

 

(267.5)

(245.3)

(251.6)

(266.7)

(280.0)

Creditors

(267.5)

(245.3)

(251.6)

(266.7)

(280.0)

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(212.3)

(42.4)

(57.9)

(57.9)

(57.9)

Long term borrowings

(168.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(43.4)

(42.4)

(57.9)

(57.9)

(57.9)

Net Assets

 

 

296.8

493.6

487.0

502.3

525.5

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

118.2

108.6

116.7

111.3

120.0

Net Interest

(1.5)

(2.8)

0.1

0.1

0.1

Tax

(21.8)

(38.9)

(17.4)

(18.5)

(20.6)

Capex

(10.9)

(4.9)

(2.0)

(2.1)

(2.3)

Acquisitions/disposals

(99.9)

195.8

(57.2)

0.0

0.0

Equity Financing / Other

(193.0)

2.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(31.3)

(34.8)

(37.3)

(38.9)

(40.6)

Net Cash Flow

(240.2)

225.6

2.8

51.8

56.6

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(83.8)

154.6

(78.3)

(81.0)

(132.8)

Redemption of pref

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

1.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

154.6

(78.3)

(81.0)

(132.8)

(189.4)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by Euromoney Institutional Investor and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Euromoney Institutional Investor. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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London, WC1V 7EE

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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Euromoney Institutional Investor and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Euromoney Institutional Investor. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Healthcare

BioPorto Diagnostics — Paediatric AKI application pulled, Q4 resubmission

In July 2019 BioPorto announced that the FDA had requested additional information for The NGAL Test’s 510(k) application for paediatric acute kidney injury (AKI), although few other details were disclosed. Unfortunately, the existing clinical data set does not include the requested information, so the company will need to withdraw its current application and collect additional samples, which carries additional risk (probability of success lowered to 50% from 60%). The company forecasts that it will be able to refile an application in Q419 if sample collection goes smoothly.

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