Pan American Silver — Q324: When (almost) everything goes to plan

Pan American Silver (NYSE: PAAS)

Last close As at 12/11/2024

USD21.69

−0.95 (−4.20%)

Market capitalisation

USD7,874m

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Research: Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver — Q324: When (almost) everything goes to plan

Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported Q324 results that saw a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase in silver production on the back of normalising operating performance at La Colorada. Thanks to the good cost control, mine operating earnings jumped 50% q-o-q while EBITDA increased 32% to US$280m. Strong cash flow generation led to almost doubling in free cash flow to a record US$151m. With a slight adjustment to initial terms, the La Arena transaction is now expected to close by end 2024. We are looking to revise our estimates and valuation shortly; given the persistent strength in the gold price the risks to our forecasts are on the upside.

Written by

Andrey Litvin

Energy and Resources Analyst

Metals & Mining

Pan American Silver

Q324: When (almost) everything goes to plan

Quarterly results

Metals and mining

12 November 2024

Price

US$21.8

Market cap

US$7,913m

Net debt (US$m) at Q324, including short-term investments of US$31m

284

Shares in issue

363m

Free float

100%

Code

PAAS

Primary exchange

TSX

Secondary exchange

NYSE

Share price performance

Business description

Pan American Silver is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner, with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. Following the acquisition of selected assets as part of the Yamana transaction, the company owns 11 producing operations (including La Arena), the suspended top-tier Escobal silver mine and several large-scale advanced exploration and development projects.

Analysts

Andrey Litvin

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Andrew Keen

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Pan American Silver is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported Q324 results that saw a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase in silver production on the back of normalising operating performance at La Colorada. Thanks to the good cost control, mine operating earnings jumped 50% q-o-q while EBITDA increased 32% to US$280m. Strong cash flow generation led to almost doubling in free cash flow to a record US$151m. With a slight adjustment to initial terms, the La Arena transaction is now expected to close by end 2024. We are looking to revise our estimates and valuation shortly; given the persistent strength in the gold price the risks to our forecasts are on the upside.

Year end

Revenue
(US$m)

EBITDA
(US$m)

EPS*
(US$)

DPS
(US$)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

1,494.7

272.0

(0.54)

0.45

30.3

2.1

12/23

2,316.1

680.6

0.19

0.41

12.1

1.9

12/24e**

2,791.1

924.2

0.41

0.40

8.9

1.8

12/25e

2,396.2

803.6

0.50

0.40

10.2

1.8

Note: *EPS is normalised, excluding exceptional items. **FY24e EPS adjusted for non-cash tax movements.

PAAS reported a 4% q-o-q increase in revenues to US$716m in Q324, with a 1% reduction in gold sales offset by a 2% increase in silver sales and higher silver and gold prices. Gold production was up 2% to 225koz while silver output jumped 20% to 5,467koz. In the silver segment, La Colorada drove the performance with a 59% increase in silver production (1,329koz) and a 26% reduction in cash cost to US$19.6/oz. However, the overall silver segment cash cost was slightly higher quarteronquarter (and above the quarterly guidance) at US$15.9/oz as stronger performance at La Colorada was offset by higher costs at Cerro Moro (lower gold by-product credits) and Huaron. Gold segment performance in Q3 was consistent with the previous quarter, with a slight increase in production (+2% to 225koz), slightly lower sales (-1% to 218koz) and broadly flat cash cost of US$1,195/oz. The company maintained its production and cost guidance for FY24.

PAAS demonstrated good cost control during the quarter, with cash production costs, total cash cost of sales and SG&A falling 6%, 5% and 27%, respectively, compared to Q2, leading to a 50% jump in mine operating earnings and a 32% increase in EBITDA to US$280m. The company reported EPS of US$0.16 versus a negative US$0.06 in Q224 and an adjusted EPS of US$0.32 (US$0.11). At the cash flow level, net cash from operating activities grew 39% q-o-q to US$226m while free cash flow almost doubled to a record US$151m. Strong cash flow generation led to a reduction in net debt from US$441m in Q224 to US$284m.

In other news, PAAS announced that the Canadian government approved the sale of La Arena assets to Zijin under the Investment Canada Act. The initial terms of the transaction remain unchanged bar an additional requirement for PAAS to enter into an offtake with Zijin for 60% of copper concentrate from La Arena II on commercial terms. The deal is expected to close by end 2024.

We will review our estimates and valuation shortly to incorporate the Q324 results and the revised commodity prices. However, given the persistent strength in the gold price, the risks to our estimates are on the upside.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Pan American Silver and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Pan American Silver. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Pan American Silver and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Pan American Silver. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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