Custodian REIT — Q4 DPS confirmed

Custodian Property Income REIT (LSE: CREI)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

GBP0.78

0.40 (0.51%)

Market capitalisation

GBP345m

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Research: Real Estate

Custodian REIT — Q4 DPS confirmed

Custodian REIT has provided an update on the impact of COVID-19 and its response to the near-term challenges this poses. In line with its strong income focus and supported by moderate gearing and a liquid balance sheet, the company has confirmed payment of the Q420 DPS and has guided to the minimum DPS that it intends to pay through H121.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Real Estate

Custodian REIT

Q4 DPS confirmed

COVID-19 update

Real estate

16 April 2020

Price

95p

Market cap

£399m

Net debt (£m) at 31 December 2019

132.5

Net LTV at 31 December 2019

23.2%

Shares in issue

420.1m

Free float

92%

Code

CREI

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(10.2)

(17.3)

(17.5)

Rel (local)

(12.9)

13.6

8.8

52-week high/low

120p

84p

Business description

Custodian REIT is a London Main Market-listed REIT focused on commercial property in the UK outside London. It is income focused, with a commitment to pay a high but sustainable and covered dividend.

Next events

Q420 DPS payment

29 May 2020

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Custodian REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Custodian REIT has provided an update on the impact of COVID-19 and its response to the near-term challenges this poses. In line with its strong income focus and supported by moderate gearing and a liquid balance sheet, the company has confirmed payment of the Q420 DPS and has guided to the minimum DPS that it intends to pay through H121.

Year end

Net rental
income (£m)

EPRA
earnings* (£m)

EPRA
EPS* (p)

EPRA
NAVPS (p)**

DPS
(p)

P/NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/18

33.2

25.2

6.94

107

6.45

0.89

6.8

03/19

37.6

28.5

7.26

107

6.55

0.89

6.9

03/20e

38.1

28.5

6.96

105

6.65

0.93

7.0

Note: *EPRA EPS excludes revaluation gains/losses and other exceptional items.

Guiding to continuing distributions

Ahead of the crisis, rents for the three months ending 31 March 2020 (Q420) were collected in full. As a result, Custodian intends to make a fourth quarterly DPS for FY20 of 1.6625p on 29 May 2020, bringing the aggregate DPS for the year to 6.65p (FY19: 6.55p) in line with the target set earlier in the year. In common with peers, the company has subsequently seen a material slowdown in rents collected as tenants seek to protect their own cash flows from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic but intends to continue to pay quarterly dividends at a reduced rate. For H121, it intends to pay on a quarterly basis amounting to at least 1.5p, broadly linked to expected net rental receipts with support from prior years’ undistributed reserves if required. Thereafter it is hoped that as deferred rents are collected, the DPS can return towards the target level. We have made no material changes to our FY20 EPRA earnings forecast. However, due to uncertainty over the extent and duration of the effects of the pandemic, we note the risk to property valuations and our forecast NAV and have temporarily withdrawn FY21 forecasts.

Diversified, income-focused strategy

Custodian has a balanced portfolio of regional UK commercial real estate, diversified by sector, location, tenant and lease term. It is focused on institutional quality assets but with lot sizes of less than £10m, where the investment manager believes it has a competitive advantage. Portfolio diversification is an important element of Custodian’s income-focused strategy but, although diversified, the portfolio is actively positioned with a relatively high exposure to industrial, retail warehouse and alternative sectors. Management focus is on maintaining high levels of occupancy and supporting income through active asset management. For now, acquisitions are on hold to preserve liquidity.

Valuation: Continuing income focus

Custodian has a strong income focus and has consistently grown DPS each year since IPO, fully covered by earnings. Despite the more challenging market conditions, this income focus remains. The shares have moved to a discount to NAV, having consistently traded at a premium since IPO.

Additional details

Custodian has a balanced portfolio of regional UK commercial real estate, diversified by sector, location, tenant and lease term. Portfolio diversification has always been an important element of Custodian’s income-based strategy but, although diversified, the portfolio is actively positioned with a relatively high exposure to industrial, retail warehouse and alternative sectors. It is focused on institutional quality assets but with lot sizes of less than £10m, where the investment manager believes it has a competitive advantage. Occupancy is strong at more than 95%.

Across the portfolio, rents are due quarterly or monthly in advance. As a result of negotiations with tenants regarding the March quarterly rent, the company has agreed that some may move from quarterly in advance to monthly in advance or defer the March quarter’s rent with a full recovery over the next 12 months. Not all tenants have yet agreed a payment profile and active discussions are continuing with the remaining tenants to agree plans for payment of outstanding rents due.

Overall, 67% of rent due relating to April has been collected, with a further 5% expected to be received shortly.

Financials and valuation

Balance sheet and liquidity

Custodian operates with moderate gearing, has a liquid balance sheet, no short-term refinancing risk and significant headroom on borrowing covenants (maximum 35% loan to value (LTV) and minimum 250% interest cover).

At the date of the trading update, the company held £25m in cash with gross borrowings of £150m and a net LTV of 21.9% (down from 23.2% at end-Q320).

Custodian operates with four loan facilities amounting to £165m in aggregate, comprising:

A £20m term loan with Scottish Widows at a fixed rate of 3.9335%, repayable in August 2023.

A £45m term loan with Scottish Widows at a fixed rate of 2.987%, repayable in June 2028.

A £50m term loan with Aviva Investors Real Estate Financing comprising:

a £35m tranche at a fixed rate of 3.02%, repayable in April 2032; and

a £15m tranche at a fixed rate of 3.26%, repayable in November 2032.

A £50m variable rate revolving credit facility with Lloyds Bank that carries an interest margin of between 1.5% and 1.8% (depending on LTV) and matures in September 2022 with an option to extend by a further two years, subject to the bank’s agreement.

In total, 70% of the facilities were at a fixed interest rate and the weighted average maturity is seven years.

Each of the facilities has its own pool of properties allocated as collateral and while overall covenant headroom is strong, Custodian indicates the interest cover covenant on some individual loans may come under pressure at 30 June 2020 (end-H120) about which it is in advanced discussions with the lenders to agree the terms of waivers. With £191.3m of unencumbered property assets there is considerable room for the management of LTV covenants.

Near-term forecasting uncertainty

Given the main COVID-19 impacts began late in March and Custodian has confirmed full collection of the Q420 rents, we do not expect a significant impact on the FY20 underlying earnings. We have made no changes to the FY20 forecasts that we set out in detail in our December Outlook note other than to adjust for subsequent share issuance under the company’s block listing facility (eight million shares at an average price of 113.7p in Q420) and to remove the £7.5m acquisition (including costs and a net initial yield of 6.7%) that we had assumed late in FY20. However, we would highlight a note of caution about our forecast NAV given there is clearly more uncertainty about property valuations, with industry valuers highlighting the material uncertainty that exists across the sector. As a result of the current high level of near-term uncertainty facing the economy and the commercial property sector, we have temporarily withdrawn our FY21 forecasts.

Based on the FY20 declared aggregate annual DPS of 6.65p, the shares yield c 7% and annualising the targeted H120 DPS of a minimum 1.5p represents a yield of more than 3%. No guidance has been given on DPS beyond H120, but if the contracted rents deferred can be collected there is upside potential. The shares now trade at a 7% discount to the end-Q319 unaudited NAV per share of 104.4p having traded at a premium since IPO.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

Year end 31 March

£'000s

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Gross rental income

11,228

18,561

26,980

34,055

39,108

39,995

Re-charge income

342

451

630

758

866

918

Total revenue

 

 

11,570

19,012

27,610

34,813

39,974

40,913

Gross property expenses

(715)

(1,023)

(1,869)

(1,610)

(2,396)

(2,802)

Net rental income

 

 

10,855

17,989

25,741

33,203

37,578

38,111

Administrative expenses

(2,327)

(2,828)

(3,643)

(4,377)

(4,919)

(4,763)

Operating Profit before revaluations

 

 

8,528

15,161

22,098

28,826

32,659

33,348

Revaluation of investment properties

6,083

3,031

9,016

11,859

(5,499)

(13,239)

Costs of acquisitions

(5,844)

(5,768)

(6,103)

(6,212)

(3,391)

(522)

Profit/(loss) on disposal

269

56

1,599

1,606

4,250

(79)

Operating Profit

9,036

12,480

26,610

36,079

28,019

19,508

Net Interest

(289)

(1,273)

(2,405)

(3,659)

(4,373)

(4,838)

Profit Before Tax

 

 

8,747

11,207

24,205

32,420

23,646

14,671

Taxation

(2)

0

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax

8,745

11,207

24,205

32,420

23,646

14,671

Net revaluation of investment property/costs of acquisition

(239)

2,737

(2,913)

(5,647)

8,890

13,761

Gains/(losses) on disposal

(269)

(56)

(1,599)

(1,606)

(4,250)

79

EPRA earnings

8,237

13,888

19,693

25,167

28,456

28,510

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

146.1

204.2

298.7

362.4

391.9

409.7

IFRS EPS (p)

 

 

5.99

5.49

8.10

8.95

6.03

3.58

EPRA EPS (p)

 

 

5.64

6.80

6.59

6.94

7.26

6.96

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

5.25

6.25

6.35

6.45

6.55

6.65

Dividend cover (x)*

1.00

1.01

1.01

1.06

1.10

1.04

Ongoing charges ratio (excluding property expenses)

1.41%

1.33%

1.20%

1.15%

1.12%

1.11%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

207,287

318,966

418,548

528,943

572,745

572,632

Investment properties

207,287

318,966

418,548

528,943

572,745

572,632

Other non-current assets

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

1,921

9,973

10,260

12,942

6,146

28,635

Debtors

1,072

4,518

4,453

7,883

3,674

6,071

Cash

849

5,455

5,807

5,059

2,472

22,564

Current Liabilities

 

 

(5,411)

(8,165)

(12,572)

(12,755)

(14,160)

(13,057)

Creditors/Deferred income

(5,411)

(8,165)

(12,572)

(12,755)

(14,160)

(13,057)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(23,811)

(65,714)

(64,359)

(113,928)

(138,108)

(148,922)

Long term borrowings

(23,811)

(65,143)

(63,788)

(113,357)

(137,532)

(148,346)

Other long term liabilities

0

(571)

(571)

(571)

(576)

(576)

Net Assets

 

 

179,986

255,060

351,877

415,202

426,623

439,288

NAV/share (p)

101

102

104

107

107

105

EPRA NAV/share (p)

101

102

104

107

107

105

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

12,780

13,945

23,066

28,388

36,035

28,726

Net Interest

(204)

(1,285)

(2,200)

(3,521)

(4,198)

(4,540)

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net additions to investment property

(129,788)

(113,621)

(92,126)

(105,884)

(46,199)

(12,472)

Ordinary dividends paid

(5,546)

(12,220)

(18,493)

(23,007)

(25,484)

(26,985)

Debt drawn/(repaid)

23,811

41,700

(1,000)

49,364

24,000

11,000

Proceeds from shares issued (net of costs)

99,796

76,087

91,105

53,912

13,259

24,980

Other cash flow from financing activities

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

849

4,606

352

(748)

(2,587)

20,709

Opening cash

0

849

5,455

5,807

5,059

2,472

Closing cash

 

 

849

5,455

5,807

5,059

2,472

23,181

Debt as per balance sheet

(23,811)

(65,143)

(63,788)

(113,357)

(137,532)

(148,346)

Unamortised loan arrangement fees

(489)

(857)

(1,212)

(1,643)

(1,468)

(1,654)

Total debt

(24,300)

(66,000)

(65,000)

(115,000)

(139,000)

(150,000)

Restricted cash

(230)

(490)

(1,307)

(1,341)

(1,369)

(1,328)

Closing net debt

 

 

(23,681)

(61,035)

(60,500)

(111,282)

(137,897)

(128,147)

Net LTV

11.4%

19.1%

14.4%

21.0%

24.1%

22.4%

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Custodian REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Custodian REIT Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Custodian REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Custodian REIT Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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