PDL BioPharma — Raising guidance

PDL BioPharma (US: PDLI)

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Research: Healthcare

PDL BioPharma — Raising guidance

PDL BioPharma reported Q319 results with revenue of $44.2m, down 35% compared to Q318 mainly due to a $31.6m change in fair value in the Assertio royalty rights in that quarter. Importantly LENSAR revenues were $8.1m, up 22% compared to the prior year, mainly due to increased sales in Asia. Following these results, the company has increased guidance for 2019 for LENSAR from a range of $27–29m to over $29m and for cash royalties from a range of $60–65m to over $65m.

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Healthcare

PDL BioPharma

Raising guidance

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

20 November 2019

Price

US$3.08

Market cap

US$352m

Net cash ($m) at 30 September 2019

144.3

Shares in issue

114.2m

Free float

91.9%

Code

PDLI

Primary exchange

Nasdaq

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

30.0

23.2

7.3

Rel (local)

24.4

15.4

(7.5)

52-week high/low

US$3.85

US$2.13

Business description

PDL BioPharma is applying its capital and expertise to build a portfolio of actively managed positions in innovative biotech and pharmaceutical companies with high growth potential. It markets Tekturna/Rasilez for hypertension through its Noden subsidiary and a cataract surgical equipment business through LENSAR. PDL has a strategic investment in Evofem, a women’s health company.

Next events

Evofem Phase IIb data in chlamydia

November 2019

Evofem NDA filing

Q419

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Wiktoria O’Hare

+1 646 653 7028

PDL BioPharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

PDL BioPharma reported Q319 results with revenue of $44.2m, down 35% compared to Q318 mainly due to a $31.6m change in fair value in the Assertio royalty rights in that quarter. Importantly LENSAR revenues were $8.1m, up 22% compared to the prior year, mainly due to increased sales in Asia. Following these results, the company has increased guidance for 2019 for LENSAR from a range of $27–29m to over $29m and for cash royalties from a range of $60–65m to over $65m.

Year
end

Revenue
($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

320.1

200.3

0.81

0.00

3.8

N/A

12/18

198.1

78.8

0.45

0.00

6.8

N/A

12/19e

102.6

(15.9)

(0.16)

0.00

N/A

N/A

12/20e

124.8

7.7

0.06

0.00

51.3

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Evofem Phase IIb data and FDA submission coming

Evofem is expected to announce top-line results from its 860-subject Phase IIb AMPREVENCE trial evaluating Amphora for the prevention of chlamydia in November. Additionally, the company remains on track to resubmit its Amphora NDA for pregnancy prevention in Q419, with approval expected in Q220.

LENSAR continues to grow strongly

The LENSAR femtosecond cataract laser business had product revenue of $8.1m in the quarter, up 22% compared to Q318 and up 9% sequentially. Importantly, procedure volume over the first nine months is up 30% compared to the previous year, with the company now at an estimated 13% market share in the space (the fourth largest player after Alcon, Johnson & Johnson and Ziemer).

Strategic review initiated

The company initiated a strategic and financial review with an external financial advisor in September to provide an independent perspective on its business. The company has quite a few possible paths with regards to capital allocation, including returning additional capital to shareholders (the company recently completed its third stock buyback program, repurchasing around 32% of its shares since March 2017), focusing capital on existing investments or making additional investments.

Valuation: $730m or $6.39 per share

We have increased our valuation from $713m or $6.24 per basic share to $730m or $6.39 per share, mainly due to a higher net cash level and increased estimates for LENSAR following Q3 results and increased guidance. We await the AMPREVENCE trial data from Evofem as we currently do not include any value for the use of Amphora for the prevention of chlamydia in our model.

Q3 results

PDL reported Q319 revenues of $44.2m with $20.3m in net product revenue (LENSAR and Noden) and $23.9m coming from royalty rights. Noden net revenue was $12.3m in the quarter, down 31% compared to Q318. Noden revenue in the US was down 37% to $6.1m, mainly due to the launch of a third-party generic in the United States in March of this year. Gross margin fell to 16% from 29% last quarter as there was a negative 39% gross margin outside the US because of the one-time end of contract fees related to a manufacturing supply agreement that was booked in the quarter. Noden booked an operating loss of $2.1m for the quarter, compared to a $4.1m profit in Q318, mainly due to that one-time fee.

Additionally, LENSAR had product revenue of $8.1m in the quarter, up 22% compared to Q318 and up 9% sequentially with most of the growth attributed to the Asian market. Importantly, procedure volume has grown around 30% over the first nine months of the year. The company expects to exit 2019 having around 107,000 procedures performed using its technology (see Exhibit 1). LENSAR is currently in the fourth position in this market after Alcon, Johnson & Johnson and Ziemer (see Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 1: LENSAR procedures per year

Exhibit 2: Revenue market share in the femtosecond laser market

Source: PDL, Market Scope. Note: Product launch July 2012.

Source: PDL, Market Scope

Exhibit 1: LENSAR procedures per year

Source: PDL, Market Scope. Note: Product launch July 2012.

Exhibit 2: Revenue market share in the femtosecond laser market

Source: PDL, Market Scope

Gross margin for LENSAR increased from 34% to 41% though the quarterly loss for LENSAR was $3.3m, which is higher than last quarter’s $1.7m and the $0.9m loss in Q318. The loss was due to a one-time cash payment of $3.5m for intellectual property to a third party, which was booked as R&D. This was related to the development of a second-generation (GEN2) LENSAR system that would integrate the laser system with a phacoemulsification system, which would lead to a device that would be able to perform all forms of cataract surgery.

PDL reported a net loss of $18.0m for the quarter, due to a $27.4m non-cash charge following a decline in the stock price of Evofem. Evofem’s share price has been under pressure since June as Woodford Investment Management, which owned 27% of Evofem as of the end of Q2, suspended trading in the Woodford Equity Income Fund that held the majority of its Evofem holding. That fund has since been going through a liquidation process, creating sustained uncertainty that has depressed Evofem’s share price. The liquidation process is expected to be completed in Q120, removing the overhang on the Evofem shares. PDL’s investment in Evofem was still up 30% or $18m at the end of Q319.

Valuation

We have increased our valuation from $713m or $6.24 per basic share to $730m or $6.39 per share, mainly due to a higher net cash level and increased estimates for LENSAR, which we now value at $65.2m (versus $61.2m previously). We await the AMPREVENCE trial data from Evofem as we currently do not include any value for the use of Amphora for the prevention of chlamydia in our model.

Exhibit 3: PDL valuation table

Royalty/note

Type

Expiration year

PDL balance sheet carrying value ($m)

NPV
($m)

Assertio (formerly Depomed)

Royalty on Glumetza and other products

2024

265.0

271.1

VB

Royalty on Spine Implant

Undisclosed

14.5

14.7

University of Michigan

Royalty on Cerdelga

2022

21.2

12.8

Wellstat

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

50.2

50.2

Hyperion

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

1.2

1.2

LENSAR

Equity

N/A

65.2

AcelRx

Royalty on Zalviso

2027

12.7

10.8

CareView

Note (Impaired)

2022

11.5

11.5

Noden

Equity

N/A

34.8

14.4

Kybella

Royalty

Unknown

0.6

0.7

Evofem

Equity

N/A

67.2

133.1

Total

 

 

 

586

Net cash (Q319) ($m)

144.3

Total firm value ($m)

730

Total basic shares (m)

114.2

Value per basic share ($)

6.39

Total options (m)

0.0

Total number of shares (m)

114.2

Diluted value per share ($)

6.39

Source: Edison Investment Research.

Financials

We have increased our FY19 revenue estimate from $91.3m to $102.6m and our FY20 revenue estimate from $123.6m to $124.8m due to a higher than expected revenue run rate in the quarter. We also increased our SG&A estimates by $3.8m in FY19 and by $3.9m in FY20 due to higher expenses. Our R&D estimate for the year increased from $3.5m to $7.0m due to the one-time cash payment related to intellectual property for LENSAR, though we have maintained our FY20 estimate.

The company ended the quarter with $294.3m in cash and currently has $150m in principal owed in the form of convertible debt. In September, the company exchanged $86.1m of its debt due in December 2021 for $86.1m in debt due in December 2024, leaving $63.9m in debt due in December 2021.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

$000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

320,060

198,110

102,641

124,800

Cost of Sales

(30,537)

(48,460)

(52,540)

(53,106)

Gross Profit

289,523

149,650

50,102

71,694

General & Administrative

(63,324)

(62,559)

(53,494)

(55,634)

EBITDA

 

 

218,818

84,136

(10,343)

12,534

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

218,818

84,136

(10,343)

12,534

Intangible Amortisation

(24,689)

(15,831)

(6,320)

(6,320)

Other

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(349)

(118,899)

0

0

Operating Profit

193,780

(50,594)

(16,663)

6,214

Net Interest

(18,562)

(5,328)

(5,517)

(4,873)

Other

9,309

0

17,685

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

200,256

78,808

(15,860)

7,661

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

184,527

(55,922)

(4,495)

1,341

Tax

(73,826)

(12,937)

(3,117)

(282)

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

126,430

65,871

(18,977)

7,379

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

110,701

(68,859)

(7,612)

1,059

Minority interest

(47)

0

0

0

Profit After Tax less Minority Interest (FRS 3)

110,654

(68,859)

(7,612)

1,059

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

155.4

145.7

118.5

123.3

EPS - normalised ($)

 

 

0.81

0.45

(0.16)

0.06

EPS - FRS 3 ($)

 

 

0.71

(0.47)

(0.06)

0.01

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

90.5

75.5

48.8

57.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

68.4

42.5

-10.1

10.0

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

68.4

42.5

-10.1

10.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

602,680

446,519

427,203

384,008

Intangible Assets

215,823

51,319

47,349

47,349

Tangible Assets

7,222

7,387

6,917

8,165

Royalty rights

349,223

376,510

282,549

238,106

Other

30,412

11,303

90,388

90,388

Current Assets

 

 

640,443

517,217

422,971

492,666

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

31,183

21,648

12,581

12,581

Cash

527,266

394,590

310,352

380,047

Other

81,994

100,979

100,038

100,038

Current Liabilities

 

 

(193,109)

(52,470)

(44,139)

(44,122)

Creditors

(19,785)

(13,142)

(13,255)

(13,255)

Short term borrowings

(126,066)

0

0

0

Other

(47,258)

(39,328)

(30,884)

(30,867)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(204,124)

(181,487)

(186,785)

(186,785)

Long term borrowings

(117,415)

(124,644)

(132,484)

(132,484)

Other long term liabilities

(86,709)

(56,843)

(54,301)

(54,301)

Net Assets

 

 

845,890

729,779

619,250

645,767

Minority Interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholder equity

 

 

845,890

729,779

619,250

645,767

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

40,624

(13,425)

(22,696)

(17,942)

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(1,297)

(4,523)

(2,545)

(1,248)

Acquisitions/disposals

128,415

57,969

84,110

88,885

Financing

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(222)

(48)

0

0

Other

212,592

(46,202)

(135,656)

0

Net Cash Flow

380,112

(6,229)

(76,787)

69,695

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

85,289

(283,785)

(269,946)

(177,868)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

(11,038)

(7,610)

(15,291)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(283,785)

(269,946)

(177,868)

(247,563)

Source: Edison Investment Research, PDL BioPharma reports


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL BioPharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL BioPharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Focusrite — A warm tone

Focusrite has delivered strong FY19 results, highlighting improved revenue momentum with a favourable reception of new product releases, better-than-expected margin delivery and encouraging trading on its first major acquisition since IPO, ADAM Audio. We increase our underlying assumptions for FY20 to reflect the improved trading and gross margin benefits from a shift in sourcing, but forex translation (notably strengthening sterling versus the euro) tempers the upgrade to c 4% for FY20. Our DCF-based valuation increases to 618p from 544p.

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