Zalaris — Raising margin guidance

Zalaris (OSE: ZAL)

Last close As at 03/03/2025

NOK85.20

0.80 (0.95%)

Market capitalisation

NOK1,886m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Zalaris — Raising margin guidance

Zalaris reported another record quarter of revenue and operating profit. In constant currency (cc), the company reported revenue growth of 13.6% y-o-y in Q424 and 16.1% in FY24, helped by strong growth in Managed Services and APAC. FY24 company adjusted EBIT grew 54% y-o-y to a margin of 11% (+2.5pp y-o-y) and the Q424 margin reached 13%. Management believes the company is on track to hit annualised revenue of NOK1.5bn ahead of its FY26 target and is narrowing its EBIT margin guidance to 13–15% (from 12–15%).

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

Software and comp services

FY24 results

4 March 2025

Price NOK85.20
Market cap NOK1,868m

Net cash/(debt) at end FY24 including lease liabilities

NOK(317.4)m

Shares in issue

22.1m
Free float 65.6%
Code ZAL
Primary exchange OSLO
Secondary exchange N/A
Price Performance
% 1m 3m 12m
Abs 15.6 24.1 48.1
52-week high/low NOK87.0 NOK53.0

Business description

Zalaris is a leading provider of comprehensive human capital management and payroll solutions.

Next events

Q125 results

30 April

Analyst

Katherine Thompson
+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Zalaris is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Note: PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Year end Revenue (NOKm) PBT (NOKm) EPS (NOK) DPS (NOK) P/E (x) Yield (%)
12/23 1,134.0 10.8 0.96 0.00 88.5 N/A
12/24 1,346.3 80.7 2.67 0.90 32.0 1.1
12/25e 1,489.4 141.8 4.84 0.93 17.6 1.1
12/26e 1,620.5 185.9 6.24 1.32 13.7 1.6

Managed Services drives record performance

Ongoing implementation of new client contracts as well as geographical and product expansion with existing clients drove 20% cc growth in Managed Services FY24 revenue, and new contracts signed in the period support strong growth in FY25. Professional Services saw a weaker performance due to the phasing of a project in the UK. The adjusted FY24 EBIT margin expanded 2.5pp to 11%, helped by revenue growth and improving profitability in Germany as the profit enhancement programme started to take effect.

Upgrading forecasts

The company stated that it was making good progress with the strategic review, which it expects to complete by the end of Q225. Having previously targeted revenue of NOK1.5bn and an adjusted EBIT margin of 12–15% by FY26, management is now confident that the margin will be in the range 13–15%. We have upgraded our revenue and adjusted EBIT forecasts to reflect Q424 performance, factoring in an adjusted EBIT margin of 12.5% in FY25 and 13.9% in FY26.

Valuation: Upgrades support further upside

The share price is up 44% over the last 12 months. Despite this, it continues to trade at substantial discounts to both its payroll software and IT services peers. We have rolled forward our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation by a year, using our forecasts to FY26, followed by conservative revenue growth of 4% and EBIT margins of 13.9%. This generates a valuation of NOK97.5/share (up from NOK91.1). Evidence of sustained revenue growth above this level and/or higher margins could provide further upside.

Review of FY24 results

Zalaris reported FY24 revenue 3% ahead of our forecast, with growth of 18.7% (16.1% cc). Managed Services revenue increased 22.3% y-o-y (20.1% cc) to NOK1,002.7m, 4.6% ahead of our forecast. Professional Services revenue declined 0.1% (3.3% cc) to NOK290.8m versus our NOK311.6m forecast. The company noted that a project had completed in the UK that had contributed a material level of revenue. Revenue from APAC increased by 135.5% y-o-y to NOK48.2m versus our NOK34.8m forecast. Finally, vyble, which is considered to be non-core, increased 66.1% y-o-y to NOK4.6m.

In Q424, the group grew revenue by 16.5% y-o-y (13.6% cc), with Managed Services growth of 20.3% y-o-y (17.3% cc), Professional Services down 3.5% y-o-y (5.3% cc), APAC up 84.3% y-o-y and vyble up 123.5% y-o-y.

The company generated adjusted EBIT of NOK147.5m in FY24, in line with our forecast and up 54% y-o-y. The margin expanded by 2.5pp to 11.0% for the year. In Q424, adjusted EBIT was 42% higher with a margin of 13.0%, up 2.3pp y-o-y. Management noted that the German profit improvement programme had delivered cost savings faster than expected. Measures being taken to reduce costs include reducing the use of external SAP consultants, changing the mix of onshore/nearshore/offshore and digital workforce and renegotiating terms in existing customer agreements.

After net finance costs of NOK64.2m (which included net FX losses of NOK18.9m), the company reported FY24 PBT of NOK49.5m (NOK80.7m on a normalised basis) and net income after minority interests of NOK34.1m. This equated to a reported basic EPS of NOK1.54 per share and a normalised, diluted EPS of NOK2.67.

The company announced a dividend of NOK0.90, broadly in line with our NOK0.91 forecast.

In FY24, Zalaris generated operating cash flow of NOK131.5m, up 125% y-o-y, and closed the year with net debt (excluding leases) of NOK247.5m, down 21% y-o-y. This equated to net debt/EBITDA of 1.2x, down from 1.4x at the end of Q324 and 2.1x at the end of FY23.

Recent contract wins provide good visibility in Managed Services

The chart below shows the trend for Managed Services revenue and operating profit on a quarterly basis through FY23 and FY24. Q424 was a record quarter for both revenue and profit, with year-on-year constant currency revenue growth of 25% in DACH, 15% in Northern Europe and 7% in the UK & Ireland. Net revenue retention for the quarter was 104%, highlighting the upsell potential from the existing customer base. In Q424, the business signed a new global contract with a large German IT company for comprehensive payroll and HR services for more than 4,400 employees across nine countries.

In Q424, the business signed new contracts that should increase future revenue by NOK28m, which, when combined with higher recurring revenue from existing customers, should result in a NOK44m increase in future revenue compared to Q324. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) of net new contracts that have yet to go live is NOK57m (see Exhibit 4). Exhibit 3 shows the expected trend in ARR by quarter from the end of FY24 to Q126, by which time the company expects all current contracts to be fully implemented. The company also expects change orders in the region of 12% of recurring revenue every year.

Professional Services becoming Zalaris Consulting

The company is renaming the Professional Services business as Zalaris Consulting. The chart below shows the divisional performance over the last two years. Partial completion of a large consulting project in the UK weighed on revenue in H224. Management noted that capacity is being used to support Managed Services customer implementations and change orders, particularly in Germany.

Outlook and changes to forecasts

The recently secured BPaaS/SaaS contracts in Managed Services as well as expansions of existing contracts provide a strong foundation for growth in FY25, as most should become fully operational in the year. The company maintained its through-cycle estimate for 1.5–3.0% churn per annum and average revenue growth of 10%. To fully benefit from increased revenues, the company is optimising the cost base through near/offshoring, and using automation and AI. Targets for FY25 include further automation of delivery processes and improved use of near- and offshore delivery centres in Latvia, Poland and India.

The company previously set the target to deliver revenue of NOK1.5bn and an EBIT margin of 12–15% (13.5% mid-point) by the end of FY26. With the strong performance in Q424, the company has tightened its EBIT margin guidance to 13–15% (14% mid-point). Annualised Q424 revenue of NOK1.46bn shows how close the company is to reaching its revenue target.

We have revised our forecasts to reflect the Q424 performance. We raise our FY25 revenue forecast by 3.8% and our adjusted EBIT forecast by 9.6%, with a margin of 12.5%. For FY26, we introduce forecasts for revenue growth of 8.8% and an adjusted EBIT margin of 13.9%.

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