MGC Pharmaceuticals — Rapid prescription growth in Australia and the UK

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Research: Healthcare

MGC Pharmaceuticals — Rapid prescription growth in Australia and the UK

Since beginning in earnest in August this year, 1,000 prescriptions for MGC’s phytocannabinoid products (CannEpil and MXP100) have been issued in Australia and the UK. Double the number of prescriptions were issued in October compared to September. Cash receipts for the quarter ending 30 September were A$413,000, with additional revenue of more than A$400,000 from recent sales expected to be received following the end of the quarter.

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Healthcare

MGC Pharmaceuticals

Rapid prescription growth in Australia and the UK

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

4 November 2019

Price

A$0.03

Market cap

A$46m

A$0.69/US$

Net cash (A$m) at 30 September 2019

4.3

Shares in issue

1,366.7m

Free float

97.8%

Code

MXC

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(15.0)

(34.6)

(33.3)

Rel (local)

(14.1)

(33.7)

(41.7)

52-week high/low

A$0.06

A$0.03

Business description

MGC Pharmaceuticals is an Australia-headquartered specialist medical cannabis biopharma company, which has most of its operations based in Europe. Management has many years of technical, clinical and commercial experience in the medical cannabis industry.

Next events

Update on product launches

2019/20

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

MGC Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Since beginning in earnest in August this year, 1,000 prescriptions for MGC’s phytocannabinoid products (CannEpil and MXP100) have been issued in Australia and the UK. Double the number of prescriptions were issued in October compared to September. Cash receipts for the quarter ending 30 September were A$413,000, with additional revenue of more than A$400,000 from recent sales expected to be received following the end of the quarter.

Year
end

Revenue
(A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/18

0.3

(5.9)

(0.52)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/19

0.7

(8.4)

(0.70)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/20e

2.4

(8.1)

(0.59)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/21e

7.3

(6.1)

(0.44)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

CannEpil and MXP100 leading the way

MGC’s proprietary products CannEpil, a high CBD, low THC (20:1) product, and MXP100 (100mg/ml CBD) are responsible for the rapid prescription growth we are seeing. CannEpil is targeting patients with drug-resistant epilepsy, while MXP100 is for those with mild neurological, inflammatory and liver conditions. MGC is an early mover in the UK medicinal cannabis market, where regulations came into effect in November 2018 allowing specialists to prescribe medical cannabis products.

Construction has commenced on Malta facility

MGC has begun construction of a ~15,000m2 GMP-certified medicinal cannabis production and cultivation facility in Malta. It will ultimately have production capacity for 8,000 units per hour of each product. Once operational (currently estimated for H221), it will become the hub of the company’s seed-to-pharmacy operations focused on supplying key markets in Europe, the UK and internationally.

Approvals to begin clinical trials

Importantly, MGC has received Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC) approval in Australia to conduct a 142-patient trial comparing CannEpil to MXP100 in drug-resistant epilepsy patients. It has also received approval for a 30-subject trial in healthy individuals investigating the effect of CannEpil on driving performance, a key safety datapoint for regulators.

Valuation: A$165m or A$0.12 per share

We have adjusted our valuation from A$157m or A$0.13/share to A$165m or A$0.12/share. The total value has increased due to rolling forward our NPV and higher net cash, while the per-share value has decreased due to an increase in the number of shares outstanding following additional capital raises totalling A$5.5m. We currently forecast that an additional A$7.5m (previously A$14m) will be raised in FY20 and A$15m in FY21.

Strong uptake of medicinal cannabis products

MGC’s CannEpil and MXP100 are exhibiting strong growth in the UK and Australian markets, reaching the 1,000-prescription level ahead of internal company forecasts. Initially, the launch was slower than expected, especially in Australia, due to regulatory and compliance matters, but those have since been resolved. Importantly, MGC’s current GMP manufacturing facility in Slovenia can produce enough medicine for approximately 5,000 patients per month at full capacity (approximately an order of magnitude more volume than is currently needed).

Exhibit 1: MGC product prescription growth

Source: MGC

As a reminder, UK regulations came into effect on 1 November 2018 that made the medical use of cannabis legal for patients with exceptional clinical need. NHS guidelines allow specialist doctors to prescribe medical cannabis products where there is clear published evidence of benefit that could not be achieved by a licensed medicine. The import licence and distribution agreements position MGC as an early mover in the UK medical cannabis market. With a population of 66 million, the UK represents a large potential market; the demand for medical cannabis products is forecast to reach €8.8bn per year by 2028, according to Prohibition Partners.

In Australia, MGC’s products can be supplied under the Therapeutic Goods Administration’s Authorised Prescriber Scheme and the Special Access Scheme, or for use in clinical trials. With a population of over 25 million, Australia is not as large a total market as the UK, but is still expected to reach US$2.1bn (A$3.0bn) per year in medical cannabis sales by 2028, according to Prohibition Partners.

Malta construction beginning

MGC has begun construction of a ~15,000m2 GMP-certified medicinal cannabis production and cultivation facility in Malta after signing a long-term lease and receiving the necessary approvals. It will ultimately have the production capacity for 8,000 units per hour of each product. The company expects to be able to leverage the key expertise that it developed as it obtained EU GMP certification for its Slovenian medical cannabis manufacturing and production facility to expedite development in Malta. Thanks to the country’s warm climate, the Maltese facility is expected to produce high-yielding cannabis crops at a relatively low cost. Once operational, it will become the hub of the company’s seed-to-pharmacy operations focused on supplying key markets in Europe, the UK and internationally. We continue to expect it to come online in H221.

China upside potential

On 17 April, MGC signed a marketing and distribution agreement with the Chinese e-commerce platform YuShop Global, to sell its CBD and hemp-enhanced nutraceuticals products in China. The products include CBD Hemp Protein Powder, BCAA CBD capsules, CBD Water Soluble Solution and CBD Herbal V-Pen. Chinese consumers will be targeted via YuShop’s online platform and network of retail channel partners including 1,500 luxury spas.

Although MGC’s primary focus is on medical cannabis products, the YuShop agreement, which provides access to the large Chinese health products market, could provide an important near-term revenue stream for the company. Chinese consumers are expected to purchase over US$20bn of vitamins and supplements in 2020.1 MGC retains 65% of gross margin after retail costs and commissions on the products sold.

YuShop conducted a 28-day beta test of flagship MGC nutraceutical products online and within 20 retail locations in four Chinese cities, which generated positive results according to the company. Following that, an eight-week market test campaign was conducted, which generated a strong initial response and resulted in the commencement of an initial sales and marketing campaign.

Given the early stage of the project, we do not yet include revenue from China in our financial forecasts or valuation.

Valuation

We have adjusted our valuation from A$157m or A$0.13/share to A$165m or A$0.12/share. The total value increased due to rolling forward our NPV and higher net cash, while the per-share value decreased due to an increase in the number of shares outstanding following additional capital raises totalling A$5.5m in net proceeds.

Exhibit 2: MGC Pharmaceuticals rNPV valuation

Product

Launch*

Peak sales (A$m)***

NPV (A$m)

Probability

rNPV (A$m)****

rNPV/share (cents/share)

Juvenile epilepsy Europe & Australia

2019/24**

160

98

20–100%

18.9

1.4

Adult epilepsy Europe & Australia

2025

490

262

20%

51.5

3.8

Dementia Europe and Australia

2025

830

442

5%

19.8

1.5

Flower and resin API & food-grade resin sales

2018

60

20–100%

82.3

6.0

MGC Derma/Cannaglobal

7.5

0.6

Admin and unallocated R&D costs

20–100%

(18.9)

(1.4)

Net cash (as of 30 September 2019)

100%

4.3

0.3

Valuation

 

 

 

 

165.4

12.1

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Financial year of product launch. **Sales of investigational CannEpil begin in FY19 at 100% probability, registered pharmaceutical in FY24 at 20% probability. ***Peak sales estimates rounded to nearest A$10m. ****Risk-adjusted R&D costs are offset against income for each drug development project.

Financials

The company recently announced its September Quarter Activity Report and its cash flow report for the quarter ending 30 September 2019 (the first quarter for FY20). Cash receipts from customers totalled A$413,000. Total net cash used in operating activities was A$3.3m. As a frame of reference, in the same quarter a year ago cash receipts were A$135,000 with cash used in operations of A$1.3m. We have made a slight change to our SG&A expense estimate for FY20 and increased it by A$0.3m. We also introduce our FY21 estimates, which include A$7.3m in sales (representing significant growth over our A$2.4m estimate for FY20) and an operating loss of A$6.1m.

During this most recent quarter, MGC raised A$4.75m in gross proceeds in an institutional placement and an additional A$1m in a priority offer (the net amount raised from financing activities was A$5.46m). As of 30 September, the company had A$4.3m in cash on hand. We currently forecast that an additional A$7.5m (previously A$14m) will be raised in FY20 and A$15m in FY21, which we expect to be used on clinical development (CannEpil and CogniCann) and capital expenditure on the Malta facility.

The company has engaged Canaccord Genuity to assist it in a dual listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), which is expected to occur in the coming months (although of course, this would depend on market conditions). We believe that a share offering conducted concurrently with a listing would provide much of the capital that we forecast will be required over the next couple of years.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

 

A$000s

 

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year end 30 June

AASB

AASB

AASB

AASB

PROFIT & LOSS

Sales

297

656

2,412

7,328

Other

0

0

0

0

Revenue

 

 

297

656

2,412

7,328

Cost of Sales

(119)

(357)

(1,482)

(4,210)

Gross Profit

177

300

930

3,118

R&D expenses

(951)

(2,866)

(2,769)

(2,825)

SG&A expenses

(5,455)

(5,893)

(6,011)

(6,131)

Other/exceptionals

(2,625)

6,641

0

0

EBITDA

 

 

(8,854)

(1,818)

(7,850)

(5,838)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(9,182)

(2,078)

(8,110)

(6,098)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(9,182)

(2,078)

(8,110)

(6,098)

Net Interest

192

202

24

24

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(5,888)

(8,397)

(8,086)

(6,074)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(8,990)

(1,876)

(8,086)

(6,074)

Taxes

0

(27)

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(5,888)

(8,424)

(8,086)

(6,074)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(8,990)

(1,904)

(8,086)

(6,074)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

1,125.5

1,209.1

1,366.7

1,380.4

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(0.52)

(0.70)

(0.59)

(0.44)

EPS - diluted

 

 

(0.80)

(0.16)

(0.59)

(0.44)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

8,490

9,277

14,017

24,017

Intangible Assets

7,083

5,034

5,034

5,034

Tangible Assets

1,334

1,470

6,211

16,211

Investments

73

2,772

2,772

2,772

Current Assets

 

 

11,504

3,720

3,854

3,039

Stocks

712

139

139

139

Debtors

932

1,227

1,227

1,227

Cash

9,859

2,354

2,488

1,673

Other

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(7,231)

(2,181)

(2,181)

(2,181)

Creditors

(961)

(1,594)

(1,594)

(1,594)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Other

(6,270)

(588)

(588)

(588)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(73)

(17)

(7,517)

(22,517)

Long term borrowings

(22)

0

(7,500)

(22,500)

Other long term liabilities

(51)

(17)

(17)

(17)

Net Assets

 

 

12,691

10,798

8,172

2,357

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(6,007)

(6,485)

(7,850)

(5,838)

Net Interest

120

158

24

24

Tax

0

(27)

0

0

Capex

(459)

(362)

(5,000)

(10,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

119

(585)

0

0

Equity Financing

4,701

27

5,460

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(1,527)

(7,274)

(7,367)

(15,815)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(11,344)

(9,837)

(2,354)

5,012

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

21

(209)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9,837)

(2,354)

5,012

20,827

Source: MGC Pharmaceutical accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by MGC Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by MGC Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by MGC Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by MGC Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: TMT

4imprint Group — Demand remains robust

Having delivered 16% top-line growth in H119, 4imprint’s trading update indicates similar progress is likely for the full year. We previously assumed some slight tailing off in H2, so have now edged up our FY19 revenue estimate by $10m, lifting EBITDA by $0.6m. Management’s revenue target of $1bn by FY22e looks likely to be achieved well ahead of schedule. The extension to the Oshkosh distribution centre was completed on time and within the $5m budget, facilitating that forecast revenue growth. We regard the current share price as well underpinned, with further potential upside.

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