Piteco SpA — Rating is attractive despite 7-8% EPS cuts

Piteco (MI: PITE)

Last close As at 04/11/2024

EUR9.48

0.24 (2.60%)

Market capitalisation

EUR192m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Piteco SpA — Rating is attractive despite 7-8% EPS cuts

Piteco traded broadly in line with management objectives, with 30 new contracts signed in FY17, up from 26 in FY16. Nevertheless, revenue and EBITDA came in below our forecasts, as the group lacked any large-size projects during the year, while Juniper Payments suffered on translation from the continued strength in the dollar. Recurring revenues grew by 5% organically and by 46% including Juniper, which is predominantly recurring revenues, and now represent 65% of the total. We have cut revenues by 5% and EPS by 7-8% in FY18 and FY19 mainly due to the weakness in services and the strong dollar. With Juniper trading in line with targets and management expecting the treasury business to return to its growth trend in FY18, we believe the shares are attractively priced on 12x our FY19e earnings.

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Written by

TMT

Piteco

Rating is attractive despite 7-8% EPS cuts

Final results

Software & comp services

21 March 2018

Price

€4.98

Market cap

€90m

US$1.226/€

Net debt (€m) at 31 Dec 2017

6.5

Shares in issue

18.1m

Free float

27.4%

Code

PITE

Primary exchange

AIM Italia

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.5

(3.0)

9.8

Rel (local)

2.1

(4.2)

(2.9)

52-week high/low

€5.5

€4.6

Business description

Piteco is Italy’s leading company in designing, developing and implementing software for treasury, finance and financial planning management.

Next events

Annual accounts approved

16 April 2018

AGM

May 2018

Interim results

26 September 2018

Analysts

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Piteco is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Piteco traded broadly in line with management objectives, with 30 new contracts signed in FY17, up from 26 in FY16. Nevertheless, revenue and EBITDA came in below our forecasts, as the group lacked any large-size projects during the year, while Juniper Payments suffered on translation from the continued weakness in the dollar. Recurring revenues grew by 5% organically and by 46% including Juniper, which is predominantly recurring revenues, and now represent 65% of the total. We have cut revenues by 5% and EPS by 7-8% in FY18 and FY19 mainly due to the weakness in services and the fall in the dollar. With Juniper trading in line with targets and management expecting the treasury business to return to its growth trend in FY18, we believe the shares are attractively priced on 12x our FY19e earnings.

Year end

Net sales revenue* (€m)

EBITDA**
(€m)

EPS**
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

13.5

5.6

24.4

15.0

16.4

3.0

12/17

16.4

6.5

30.3

15.0

13.8

3.5

12/18e

19.3

8.0

36.0

17.5

12.7

4.0

12/19e

21.0

9.0

39.3

20.0

11.9

4.5

Note: *Excludes the capitalisation of development costs, change in work in progress and other revenues (largely expenses charged back to customers). **Normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Final results: Held back by dollar and lack of larger projects

Net revenues grew by 21% to €16.4m (we forecast €17.1m), reflecting flat organic revenues and an initial €2.9m from Juniper Payments, which contributed from May. While the 30 new contract wins were 15% ahead of the number signed in FY16, the FY17 batch lacked sizeable deals with large services elements and consequently services revenues were subdued. Juniper contributed in line with plans in dollar terms, but suffered on the decline in the dollar against the euro. Cash generation remained healthy, with FCF increasing by c 7% to an estimated €4.4m, and the group ended the year with net debt of €6.5m (we forecast €6.0m).

Forecasts: Revenues cut by 5%, EPS by 7-8%

We have cut our revenues by 5% in each of FY18 and FY19, while EBITDA falls by 11% in each year and EPS comes back by 7% in FY18 and 8% in FY19. We forecast operating margins to recover in FY18, and head back towards 40%. We forecast the group to remain strongly cash generative, ending FY18 with net debt of €2.7m (previously €2.4m) and swing into net cash a year later.

Valuation: Attractive low double-digit P/E with growth

The stock looks attractive, trading on c 14x our EPS in FY18e, falling to c 13x in FY19e and to c 12x in FY20e. Our DCF model suggests a valuation of 591c (previously 598c), which is 21% above the current price. The calculation uses assumptions including a 6.5% CAGR in organic net sales revenue over 10 years, long-term operating margins of 40% of net sales and a WACC of 9%. It has also been adjusted for the dilution impact of the convertible bonds.

Final results: 30 new contract wins, up from 26 in FY16

Net sales revenue rose by 21% to €16.4m, reflecting flat organic growth and an initial €2.9m for Juniper Payments, which contributed for eight months. The number was 4.1% below our forecast, mainly due to the lack of major services projects in FY17, along with continued weakness of the dollar, which weighed on the translation of Juniper revenue. Piteco acquired Juniper in early April, and revenue of €261k generated in that month was not booked but instead reduced the purchase cost. Excluding this effect, Juniper revenues were broadly in line with our forecast. Cash generation remained very healthy, with free cash flow increasing by c 7% to an estimated €4.4m, (assuming that normal capex was €0.4m out of the total capex of €10.23m), and the group ended the year with net debt of €6.5m (we forecast €6.0m) .

Software sales rose by 8% to €2.4m, compared with our €3.0m forecast, which included hosted SaaS sales. We have switched hosted SaaS into the recurring maintenance line, and the recurring maintenance line rose by 5% to €7.4m, partly due to the growth in the hosted SaaS offering. After including Juniper’s revenues (Jupiter has 90%+ recurring revenues), recurring revenues jumped by 46% to €10.3m, to represent 63% of net sales revenues, up from 52% in FY16. Services dipped by 12% to €3.7m (we forecast €3.9m).

There were 30 new contract wins, of which three were hosted cloud deals. While 30 new contracts was within the historical range, the company lacked larger sales in FY17, eg a normal deal could generate €50k in software sales and €50k in services, while a larger deal can generate €100k in software and €300k in services. Two customers were lost through bankruptcy in FY17, with a €180k exceptional charge made for bad debtors, which was reflected in the depreciation and amortisation line for the statutory accounts. The group made €334k exceptional gains, mostly relating to the patent box tax benefits, while there was €208k in exceptional costs for the acquisition of Juniper. The company employed an additional sales person in Italy, with the full cost expensed in FY17, while it takes a year or two to reach high productivity.

Juniper, previously known as LendingTools, operates in the US correspondent banking software market. It was acquired when the exchange rate was $1.06/€. The dollar slipped $1.20/€ at the year end and now stands at $1.226/€, representing a 13.5% decline since the acquisition 11 months ago. A contract with Juniper’s biggest client has been renewed, alleviating risk following the change of control. The group recorded a €1.106m unrealised loss on the 10-year $10m intercompany loan, which financed the Juniper deal; we note that the company had already repaid a tenth of the loan in FY17. In addition, there is a new liability of €1,192k for the acquisition of an additional 5% of Juniper, scheduled for payment in April 2019. Further, there is another €2,427k liability, which relates to a put option for Piteco's US partners to sell to the remaining 40% of Juniper to Piteco NA starting in five years’ time. This liability is not included in the group’s €6.5m net debt position. Intangible items relating to the acquisition are being amortised over seven years, with €956k expensed in FY17. Having owned Juniper for nearly a year, Piteco is working on developing a new strategy with which to attack the North American market. Juniper was originally acquired with a view to use it as a route to the North American market for the group’s core treasury software.

The annual dividend has been maintained at 15c, reflecting a 50% payout ratio on normalised earnings and 72% on statutory earnings.

Piteco has undergone most of the necessary steps to move its listing to the MTA, including hiring new advisers, and the new shift to MTA is now looking probable in Q3.

Management expects the core treasury business to return to normal trend growth in FY18 and FY19, potentially in the 8-10% range. We note that the core treasury software grew at 8% CAGR over the five years to FY16. Juniper has a stronger growth profile, and is likely to grow in the 10-20% range.

Forecasts: Revenues cut by 5%, EPS by 7-8%

We have cut our revenues by 5% in each of FY18 and FY19, while EBITDA falls by 11% in each year and EPS comes back by 7% in FY18 and 8% in FY19. Nevertheless, the group will benefit from a full 12 months’ contribution from Juniper in FY18, from eight months in FY17. Hence we are forecasting net sales revenue to grow by 18.0% in FY18 to €19.3m, and by 8.5% in FY19 to €21.0m, while we forecast EPS growth of 18.5% and 9.2% respectively.

We forecast operating margins to recover in FY18, and head back towards 40%. We forecast the group to remain strongly cash generative, ending FY18 with net debt of €2.7m (previously €2.4m) and swing into net cash a year later. On our forecasts, recurring revenues (including Juniper) will reach €12.5m in FY18, or 65% of net sales revenue, rising to €13.5m or 64% of the total in FY19.

Exhibit 1: Forecast changes

 

2017e

2017

Change

2018e

2018e

Change

2019e

2019e

Change

2020e

€000s

Old

Actual

(%)

Old

New

(%)

Old

New

(%)

New

Revenues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Software

3,023

2,400

(20.6)

3,410

2,772

(18.7)

3,816

3,162

(17.1)

3,453

Services

3,883

3,670

(5.5)

4,328

4,027

(7.0)

4,823

4,340

(10.0)

4,614

Recurring maintenance and rentals

6,977

7,430

6.5

7,256

7,784

7.3

7,554

8,123

7.5

8,496

Juniper Payments

3,195

2,874

(10.0)

5,396

4,737

(12.2)

5,936

5,329

(10.2)

5,995

Net sales revenue

17,078

16,374

(4.1)

20,390

19,319

(5.3)

22,129

20,954

(5.3)

22,558

Capitalisation of dev'ment costs

342

327

(4.1)

408

386

(5.3)

443

419

(5.3)

451

Change in work in progress

0

(35)

N/A

0

0

N/A

0

0

N/A

0

Other revenues

347

380

9.3

450

424

(5.7)

486

453

(6.8)

477

Turnover

17,767

17,046

(4.1)

21,248

20,130

(5.3)

23,058

21,825

(5.3)

23,486

Growth (%)

25.8

20.7

(19.8)

19.6

18.1

(7.7)

8.5

8.4

(1.1)

7.6

Operating expenses before dep’n

(10,643)

(10,589)

(0.5)

(12,279)

(12,171)

(0.9)

(12,949)

(12,829)

(0.9)

(13,675)

Capitalisation of dev costs (net)

217

93

(56.8)

258

236

(8.3)

137

100

(26.8)

99

EBITDA

7,124

6,457

(9.4)

8,969

7,959

(11.3)

10,109

8,997

(11.0)

9,812

Depreciation

(250)

(113)

(54.8)

(225)

(115)

(48.9)

(215)

(100)

(53.6)

(90)

Amortisation of development costs

(125)

(234)

87.2

(150)

(150)

0.0

(306)

(319)

4.3

(352)

Depreciation & amortisation

(375)

(347)

(7.5)

(375)

(265)

(29.3)

(521)

(419)

(19.6)

(442)

Adjusted operating profit

6,749

6,110

(9.5)

8,594

7,694

(10.5)

9,587

8,578

(10.5)

9,370

Operating margin (%)

38.0

35.8

(5.6)

40.4

38.2

(5.5)

41.6

39.3

(5.5)

39.9

Growth (%)

27.1

14.7

(45.7)

27.3

25.9

(5.2)

11.6

11.5

(0.6)

9.2

Net interest

(494)

(537)

8.8

(400)

(450)

12.5

(250)

(300)

20.0

(200)

Profit before tax norm

6,255

5,573

(10.9)

8,194

7,244

(11.6)

9,337

8,278

(11.3)

9,170

Amortisation of acq’d intangibles*

(870)

(956)

9.9

(870)

(956)

9.9

(870)

(956)

9.9

(956)

Exceptional items (net of tax)

(666)

(1,160)

74.1

0

0

N/A

0

0

N/A

0

Profit before tax

4,719

3,457

(26.7)

7,324

6,288

(14.1)

8,467

7,322

(13.5)

8,214

Taxation

(707)

(72)

(89.8)

(1,147)

(724)

(36.9)

(1,587)

(1,159)

(27.0)

(1,559)

Net income

4,012

3,385

(15.6)

6,177

5,563

(9.9)

6,880

6,163

(10.4)

6,655

Statutory EPS

22.1

18.7

(15.6)

34.1

30.7

(9.9)

38.0

34.0

(10.4)

36.7

Adjusted EPS (c)

30.6

30.3

(0.9)

38.9

36.0

(7.5)

42.8

39.3

(8.1)

42.0

P/E - Adjusted EPS

16.4

13.3

12.7

11.9

Source: Piteco accounts (historics), Edison Investment Research (forecasts). Note: *Relates to Jupiter Payments.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

€'000s

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Turnover

 

13,384

14,122

17,046

20,130

21,825

23,486

Net Sales Revenue

12,838

13,477

16,374

19,319

20,954

22,558

EBITDA

 

5,719

5,623

6,457

7,959

8,997

9,812

Adjusted Operating Profit

 

5,463

5,326

6,110

7,694

8,578

9,370

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

(956)

(956)

(956)

(956)

Exceptionals

(323)

89

(1,160)

0

0

0

Share based payments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

5,140

5,415

3,994

6,738

7,622

8,414

Net Interest

(585)

(365)

(537)

(450)

(300)

(200)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

4,878

4,962

5,573

7,244

8,278

9,170

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

4,555

5,050

3,457

6,288

7,322

8,214

Tax

(1,130)

(547)

(72)

(724)

(1,159)

(1,559)

Profit After Tax (norm)

3,748

4,415

5,501

6,519

7,119

7,611

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,426

4,503

3,385

5,563

6,163

6,655

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

18.1

18.1

18.1

18.1

18.1

18.1

EPS - normalised (c)

 

20.7

24.4

30.3

36.0

39.3

42.0

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

18.9

24.8

18.7

30.7

34.0

36.7

Dividend per share (c)

10.00

15.00

15.00

17.50

20.00

22.50

EBITDA Margin (%)

42.7

39.8

37.9

39.5

41.2

41.8

Op Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

40.8

37.7

35.8

38.2

39.3

39.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

30,055

30,090

39,320

38,563

37,691

36,834

Intangible assets and deferred tax

28,522

28,626

37,834

37,114

36,258

35,402

Tangible Assets

1,421

1,365

1,486

1,448

1,432

1,432

Investments

112

99

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

14,846

15,531

9,526

12,076

14,783

18,081

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

4,494

4,524

4,096

4,115

4,160

4,175

Cash

10,198

10,870

5,154

7,685

10,347

13,629

Current Liabilities

 

(5,408)

(5,023)

(8,425)

(9,600)

(10,390)

(11,155)

Creditors

(3,688)

(3,304)

(6,100)

(7,275)

(8,065)

(8,830)

Short term borrowings

(1,720)

(1,719)

(2,325)

(2,325)

(2,325)

(2,325)

Long Term Liabilities

 

(10,114)

(8,576)

(10,505)

(9,193)

(7,880)

(6,568)

Long term borrowings

(8,825)

(7,204)

(9,326)

(8,014)

(6,701)

(5,389)

Other long term liabilities

(1,289)

(1,372)

(1,179)

(1,179)

(1,179)

(1,179)

Net Assets

 

29,379

32,022

29,916

31,846

34,204

37,192

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

5,056

5,525

5,670

8,152

9,207

10,037

Net Interest

(585)

(365)

(538)

(450)

(300)

(200)

Tax

(1,146)

(661)

(309)

(72)

(652)

(1,076)

Capex

(330)

(347)

(400)

(464)

(503)

(541)

Acquisitions/disposals

(972)

0

(9,830)

(605)

(605)

0

Financing

7,671

0

0

0

0

0

Dividends

0

(1,860)

(3,094)

(2,719)

(3,172)

(3,625)

Net Cash Flow

9,695

2,293

(8,501)

3,843

3,975

4,595

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

10,032

347

(1,946)

6,497

2,654

(1,321)

Other

(10)

0

58

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

347

(1,946)

6,497

2,654

(1,321)

(5,916)

Source: Piteco accounts (historics), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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