7digital Group — Ready to rock ’n’ roll

7digital Group

Ready to rock ’n' roll

FY17 results

Software & comp services

16 August 2018

Price	4.5p
Market cap	£18m

Net cash (£m) at 31 December 2017		7.0

Shares in issue	399.6m
Free float	84%
Code	7DIG

Primary exchange	AIM
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	0.0	(7.1)	(33.8)
Rel (local)	2.2	(4.5)	(35.0)

52-week high/low

7.0p

3.9p

Business description

7digital Group provides an end-to-end, white-label digital music platform and access to global music rights that enable its clients, which include businesses in the radio, electronics, social media and telecoms industries around the world, to offer music streaming and download services to their own customers. Its global customer base includes musical.ly, Onkyo, Panasonic, MediaMarktSaturn, Cdiscount, Electric Jukebox, eMusic and i.am +.

Next event

H118 results

September 2018

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams	+44 (0)20 3077 5739
Neil Shah	+44 (0)20 3077 5715

media@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

7digital Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

7digtal has now reported its FY17 results, which show a strong uplift in revenues, reflecting the 24-7 acquisition, and a greatly reduced EBITDA loss. The publication of the results was delayed in order to conduct a thorough review by new auditors, resulting in a significant strengthening in reporting procedures and systems, and a restatement of historical figures. The rapidly shifting streaming market gives the group significant B2B opportunities, with music a key element of customer engagement for retailers, connected devices and mobile network operators.

Year end	Revenue (£m)	EBITDA (£m)	PBT* (£m)	EPS* (p)	DPS (p)	EV/ EBITDA (x)	PE (%)
12/16^^	11.2	(4.3)	(5.6)	(4.9)	0.0	N/A	N/A
12/17^^	16.8	(1.6)	(3.8)	(2.3)	0.0	N/A	N/A
12/18e	21.8	2.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2	N/A
12/19e	26.5	6.5	3.4	0.8	0.0	1.5	5.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. ^^restated.

FY17 – results reflect MMS acquisition

FY17 revenues, up 50%, reflect the May 2017 acquisition of its largest competitor, 24-7, from MMS. Revenues from MediaMarktSaturn (MMS, now 7digital’s largest customer) underlie the 74% increase in high margin licence revenue. This resulting gross margin improvement has enabled the group to narrow its EBITDA loss significantly, ahead of our previous forecast. Over FY17, 7digital carried out a major project to integrate the three tech platforms (its own, Snowite and 24-7’s Juke), with FY17 capex of £4.7m. This will improve its ability to offer clients ‘Platform-as-a-Service’. Year-end net cash, bolstered by the December 2017 capital raise, was £7.0m. The previous CFO, Matt Honey, has resigned and David Holmwood (previously financial controller at Universal Music) has been serving as CFO on an interim basis. He and other candidates for the permanent role are currently being considered.

Outlook – ingredients for success

FY17 was a transformative year: the 24-7 acquisition added scale, enabling the group to move towards EBITDA profitability, and the December 2017 capital raise provided ample funds to see the group to cash flow (and operating profit) break-even, targeted for H218e. The group has continued to add reference clients across a range of industry verticals, cementing its position as the leading B2B end-to-end music platform provider. With its ‘ducks in a row’, we expect FY18e and FY19e to show good progress. H118 sales are indicated at £9.3m, up 57% and management points to a strong pipeline and increasing momentum across the business.

Valuation: Positioned for growth

On a FY19e P/E of 5.7x based on our revised forecasts, 7digital trades at a considerable discount to software peers (UK sector, excluding outliers, on 24x). With the platform, reference clients and balance sheet structure now more secure, and with a significant amount of operational leverage in the business, we expect the group to move to a growth rating.

FY17 results reflect acquisition and integration of MMS

Strong investment case intact

■

FY17 was a transformative year for the group, which in acquiring its largest European competitor (24-7, bought from MMS), gained both scale and reach across Europe. While the cost of integrating the platforms exceeded our expectations, we understand that the bulk of this work is now complete and the platform is more robustly positioned to support the scaling of the client base.

■

The group has been reporting a steady trickle of new reference clients across a range of sectors, which, while fairly small in terms of revenue contribution, support the investment case that there remains an untapped market for streamed music services for the casual listener – beyond the current three dominant global platforms (Spotify, Amazon and Apple Music) that will be served by a range of business models.

■

We forecast FY19e to be the first year of operating profitability for the group and, despite capital expenditure remaining elevated, we expect net cash flow break-even in H218.

■

While the December 2017 capital raise was significantly dilutive in terms of EPS, the group has a greater degree of balance sheet flexibility.

■

The bulk of revenues are now from high-margin licence sales and we see scope for EBITDA margins to increase rapidly from the 11% forecast in FY18 to 25% in FY19.

Thorough audit and restatements

7digital appointed a new auditor, BDO, in January 2018. In the course of its appraisals, BDO discovered some weaknesses in the internal reporting. This triggered an exhaustive review of system and accounting practices within the group. The review also led to a number of corrections in prior year accounts, mostly relating to the accounting relating to acquisitions.

■

For FY15, cost of sales accruals at the year-end relating to content revenues has been reduced by £773k.

■

For FY16, a number of adjustments have been made to the balance sheet treatment of the Snowite acquisition. £546k, previously apportioned to goodwill, has now been reclassified as a bespoke application intangible asset, increasing amortisation by £137k for the year. A shareholder put option has also been brought on balance sheet (+£114k of liability) and £109k of revenue under accrued has been added back. In addition, £551k of FX gains were incorrectly recognised as revenue and a further £241k of revenue was mis-stated. Other adjustments relate to third-party work being moved from WIP to other debtors, patents being reclassified as intangible assets from current assets, liabilities within Snowite that had been presented as loans being reclassified as trade and other payables, and errors in the calculation of share-based payments.

■

The auditors have qualified the accounts on a material uncertainty over the going concern basis on a technical issue regarding a short-term funding to cover restructuring payments. Two of the group’s largest shareholders have committed to cover this eventuality. Only letters of intent had been issued at the time of the audit sign-off, hence the note of caution. Management’s view is that if the timing of the firm commitment had been sooner, the auditors would not have made this qualification.

While the detailed audit process has undoubtedly been painful (and painstaking) for those involved, investor confidence in the published figures should be greatly enhanced. A permanent appointment to the post of CFO will further enhance the group’s financial credibility.

EBITDA loss much reduced

In its final audited results, revenues have been reported of £16.8m, slightly lower than those pre-announced in February (£17.3m), as revenue previously booked to FY17 has been shifted out to FY18 under the IFRS15 definitions. The EBITDA loss of £1.6m compares to a previously announced figure of £1.0m.

We had previously updated our FY17 figures for both the December 2017 £8.5m equity issue and these preliminary figures. However, given that the final results differ from these preliminary numbers, in terms of looking at the operational performance of the group, we believe it more relevant to compare to our previous forecast (published in September).

7digital’s results were a little better than our forecast for an EBITDA loss of £1.7m and a substantial improvement on FY16’s £4.3m loss (restated). This outperformance came despite the small shortfall in revenues indicated above.

Operational progress largely reflects the MMS deal

The 50% increase in revenues in FY17 was largely due to the acquisition of 24-7 from MMS effective May 2017. As part of this transaction, 7digital not only acquired 24-7’s roster of clients (the largest of which are Juke and Danish telco TDC), but also agreed additional project work for MMS. Together, this underlies £18m of contracted revenues over the next three years. MMS generated £7.0m of revenue in FY17, but £2.0m of this relates to one-off revenues. Although these were paid in advance, under IFRS 15 they will be recognised in H118.

High-margin licensing revenues increased by 74% to £11.6m, with the monthly recurring element of this licensing revenue increasing by 71% to £8.4m. Total exit monthly recurring revenues (MRR) increased by 23% as at the year-end, largely driven by this transaction and a steady underlying increase in MRR from the other clients where it has a good spread of reference clients across key industry verticals. For instance, during the year (and subsequently) it has announced deals with, for instance, SoundHound (voice-enabled connected devices), Global Eagle Entertainment (in-flight entertainment) and DTS (automotive audio), as well as expanding its relationship with social media app musical.ly.

The Creative division (12% of sales) delivered another year of good revenue growth at 6%. During FY17, it retained key broadcast clients such as the BBC’s Pick of the Pops, The Folk Show and The Golden Hour, and also added new clients including Amazon (news bulletin productions) and BBC iPlayer (video documentary), as well as benefiting from a wider network of clients across the group. Within the Content division (19% of group revenues), direct-to-consumer downloads continue to weaken, but this was more than offset by higher-margin, one-off projects for music labels and the continuing shift to high-res formats. Revenues were up by 21%, a result much better than we had anticipated.

With 69% of FY17 revenues derived from licence sales (FY16: 60%), gross margins increased to 72% from 69%, underpinning a 55% increase in gross profits. This margin increase and delivery of a cost-saving programme meant that with the absorption of the cost base of 24-7 from May 2017, operational expenses increased by only £3.7m for the year, enabling the group to deliver a small EBITDA profit in H217.

Exhibit 1: Summary results

Revenues	FY16	FY17	change	FY17 (Nov 2017 Edison forecast)	Variance to forecast (£000s)	FY18e (new)	FY19e (new)
License sales	6,679	11,616	74%	14,721	(3,105)	16,838	21,635
Content	2,625	3,167	21%	1,845	1,322	2,692	2,423
Creative	1,912	2,018	6%	2,294	(276)	2,220	2,442
Other	0	0		250	(250)	0	0
Total revenues	11,216	16,801	50%	19,110	(2,309)	21,750	26,500
Revenue growth	7.9%	49.8%				29.5%	21.8%
Gross profit:
Licensing	6,167	9,436	53%	13,249	(3,813)	15,491	20,121
Content	798	1,939	143%	203	1,736	135	242
Creative	805	660	-18%	1,147	(487)	799	928

Total gross profit	7,770	12,035	55%	14,849	(2,814)	16,425	21,291
Gross margin	69.3%	71.6%		77.7%		75.5%	80.3%
Operating expenses	(12,080)	(13,643)	13%	(16,596)	2,953	(14,025)	(14,760)
EBITDA	(4,310)	(1,608)	-63%	(1,747)	139	2,400	6,530
EBITDA margin	N/A	N/A				11.0%	24.6%
Normalised EBITA	(5,603)	(3,761)	-33%	(2,875)	(886)	(25)	3,345
Normalised PBT	(5,616)	(3,816)	-32%	(2,875)	(941)	0	3,358
Reported PBT	(5,475)	(5,026)	-8%	(4,267)	(759)	(1,100)	3,358

Source: 7digital – historics, Edison - forecasts

Outlook – on track for profits and positive cash flow in H218

FY17 was largely about the acquisition and integration of 24-7, and the on-boarding of reference clients across strategic verticals. In FY18, management will focus on the relaunch of the Juke services on the 7digital platform across 15 territories (as these services come online, we would expect to see a commensurate pick up in MRR, as well as converting larger clients in its target verticals . Negotiations with companies in the retail and telecoms sector in North America looking promising for H218.

Management has reiterated its guidance that, given a strong pipeline and the increased momentum it is seeing, it is on track to reach operational profitability in H218, and to become net cash-flow positive in the same accounting period.

Forecast changes; lower FY18 EBITDA, higher FY19

We update forecasts for the FY17 reported results, changes in accounting, higher level of capital expenditure and associated amortisation in future periods.

At the operating level, this results in a decrease in our forecast EBITDA in FY18e from £3.0m to £2.4m (11% EBITDA margin), although a higher amortisation charge means that we reduce our normalised EBITA forecast from £2.1m to breakeven. With the bulk of the integration work now done, we forecast the level of capital expenditure to decrease from the £4.7m reported in FY17 (28% revenues) to £3.5m in FY18 and £2.5m in FY19. For FY19e, we are now expecting EBITDA of £6.5m, reflecting the improving gross margin from the change in mix and the limited rise in operating expenses as the cost of merging the platforms falls away and the synergistic benefits start to come through. We currently model a 25% EBITDA margin for FY19e. Overall, these changes mean that, provided working capital continues to be managed tightly, the group should be cash-generative from H218. We forecast a year-end net cash position of £3.3m.

Exhibit 2: Summary forecast changes

£000s	FY18e Old	FY18e New	Change	FY19e Old	FY19e New	Change
Revenues	24,856	21,750	-12.5%	27,587	26,500	-3.9%
EBITDA	2,965	2,400	-19.0%	4,646	6,530	40.6%
Normalised operating profit	2,145	(25)	N/A	3,762	3,345	-11.1%
Reported operating profit	493	(1,125)	N/A	3,762	3,345	-11.1%
Normalised PBT	2,130	0	N/A	3,762	3,358	-10.8%
Reported PBT	478	(1,100)	N/A	3,762	3,358	-10.8%
Normalised net income	2,130	0	N/A	3,386	3,022	-10.8%

Source: Edison

Valuation and investment case

The revised expectations mean that FY19 should be the first forecast year of profitability since the strategy shift in 2015. The shares are trading at a PE multiple of 5.7x for that year, with reverse DCF implying that negligible revenue or margin growth is being factored in.

We believe the investment case for 7digital remains compelling and that it should be on a growth rating; 10% annual revenue growth FY10–25 with EBITDA margins reaching 25% (11% WACC, 2% perpetuity), for instance, would point to a DCF valuation of 12.6p/share – implying a PE of 16x FY19 earnings – more in line with UK software peers.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

	£'k	2015			2016	2017	2018e	2019e
31-December		IFRS			IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue		10,392			11,216	16,801	21,750	26,500
Cost of Sales		(3,308)			(3,446)	(4,766)	(5,325)	(5,209)
Gross Profit		7,084			7,770	12,035	16,425	21,291
EBITDA		(2,102)			(4,310)	(1,608)	2,400	6,530
Normalised operating profit		(2,862)			(5,603)	(3,761)	(25)	3,345
Amortisation of acquired intangibles		0			0	0	0	0
Exceptionals / FX		(128)			313	(1,124)	(1,100)	0
Share-based payments		(137)			(172)	(86)	0	0
Reported operating profit		(3,127)			(5,462)	(4,971)	(1,125)	3,345
Net Interest		11			(13)	(55)	25	12
Joint ventures & associates (post tax)		0			0	0	0	0
Exceptionals		(4,767)			0	0	(0)	0
Profit Before Tax (norm)		(7,618)			(5,616)	(3,816)	0	3,358
Profit Before Tax (reported)		(7,883)			(5,475)	(5,026)	(1,100)	3,358
Reported tax		(3)			(12)	380	0	(336)
Profit After Tax (norm)		(7,621)			(5,628)	(3,816)	0	3,022
Profit After Tax (reported)		(7,886)			(5,487)	(4,646)	(1,100)	3,022
Minority interests		0			0	0	0	0
Discontinued operations		0			0	0	0	0
Net income (normalised)		(7,621)			(5,628)	(3,816)	0	3,022
Net income (reported)		(7,886)			(5,487)	(4,646)	(1,100)	3,022

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)			108	114		170	399		399
EPS - basic normalised (p)		(7.1)			(4.9)	(2.3)	0.0	0.8
EPS - diluted normalised (p)		(7.1)			(4.9)	(2.3)	0.0	0.8
EPS - basic reported (p)		(7.3)			(4.8)	(2.7)	(0.3)	0.8

Revenue growth (%)		1.8			7.9	49.8	29.5	21.8
Gross Margin (%)		68.2			69.3	71.6	75.5	80.3
EBITDA Margin (%)		N/A			N/A	N/A	11.0	24.6
Normalised Operating Margin		N/A			N/A	N/A	-0.1	12.6

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		1,127			2,676	6,481	7,112	7,427
Intangible Assets		423			2,201	6,157	6,913	7,363
Tangible Assets		704			475	324	199	64
Investments & other		0			0	0	0	0
Current Assets		6,212			4,664	13,980	10,491	11,896
Stocks		0			0	0	0	0
Debtors		4,556			3,826	7,002	7,151	8,712
Cash & cash equivalents		1,656			838	6,978	3,341	3,184
Other		0			0	0	0	0
Current Liabilities		(3,201)			(6,223)	(11,951)	(10,637)	(9,335)
Creditors		(3,031)			(6,080)	(11,917)	(10,603)	(9,301)
Tax and social security		0			0	0	0	0
Short term borrowings		0			0	0	0	0
Other		(170)			(143)	(34)	(34)	(34)
Long Term Liabilities		0			(2,057)	(2,078)	(2,078)	(878)
Long term borrowings		0			0	0	0	0
Other long term liabilities		0			(2,057)	(2,078)	(2,078)	(878)
Net Assets		4,138			(940)	6,432	4,889	9,110
Minority interests		0			0	0	0	0
Shareholders' equity		4,138			(940)	6,432	4,889	9,110

CASH FLOW
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax		(2,102)			(4,310)	(1,608)	2,400	6,530
Working capital		(2,439)			3,400	2,188	(1,463)	(2,863)
Exceptional & other		(150)			(465)	(676)	(1,100)	0
Tax		(3)			(12)	294	0	(336)
Net operating cash flow		(4,694)			(1,387)	198	(163)	3,331
Capex		(848)			(447)	(4,881)	(3,500)	(3,500)
Acquisitions/disposals		1,828			109	297	0	0
Net interest		11			(7)	55	25	12
Equity financing		0			0	10,694	0	0
Dividends		0			(1)	0	0	0
Other		0			(4)	135	0	0
Net Cash Flow		(3,703)			(1,737)	6,498	(3,637)	(157)
Opening net debt/(cash)		(5,312)			(1,656)	(838)	(6,978)	(3,341)
FX		48			919	(358)	0	0
Other non-cash movements		0			0	0	0	0
Closing net debt/(cash)		(1,656)			(838)	(6,978)	(3,341)	(3,184)

Source: 7digital accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: FY15 and FY16 restated.

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