Lookers — Record FY21, but challenges remain

Industrials

Lookers

Record FY21, but challenges remain

FY21 results

Automotive retail

11 April 2022

Price	86p
Market cap	£337m

Adjusted net cash (£m) at 30 December 2021 (excluding lease liabilities)		3.0

Shares in issue	391.8m
Free float	79%
Code	LOOK

Primary exchange	LSE
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	4.1	16.2	20.0
Rel (local)	(5.4)	16.0	11.6

52-week high/low

101p

56p

Business description

Lookers is one of the largest UK motor vehicle retailers, with its new car operations supported by the strength of used and aftersales activities. It now operates 153 franchises, representing 33 marques from 100 sites around the UK and Ireland, with strong regional presences in Northern Ireland, Scotland, the South East and across northern England.

Next events

AGM	31 May 2022

Analyst

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

industrials@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

Lookers is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Lookers’ FY21 adjusted PBT was even more of a record than we had anticipated. Revenue growth in all the main segments was augmented by strong used car margins and improvements in the new car segment, which drove group gross margins up 180bp to an exceptional 12.8%. The positive demand and supply dynamics look set to continue for the time being. Used car prices may stay high for some time but as they plateau margins may moderate, compounded by inflationary cost factors. In addition, high energy prices are pressurising household and business budgets with increasing vehicle usage costs, which may start to reduce demand. However, FY22 looks set to return to at least the level of pre-pandemic highs while not matching the exceptional FY21 performance.

Year end	Revenue (£m)	PBT* (£m)	EPS* (p)	DPS (p)	P/E (x)	Yield (%)
12/20**	3,700	13.7	2.97	0.00	29.0	0.0
12/21	4,051	90.1	19.95	2.50	4.3	2.9
12/22e	4,231	53.0	10.88	3.00	7.9	3.5
12/23e	4,370	60.0	12.03	3.30	7.2	3.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Restated.

FY21 sees Lookers back on the road

Lookers delivered record profits in FY21 with group revenue up 9% to £4.05bn (FY20: £3.70bn) and gross profit margin rising to an exceptional 12.8% (FY20 11.1%), largely reflecting strong used vehicle margins. Underlying profit before tax of £90.1m (FY20 restated: £13.7m) was ahead of our £86.0m expectation, and year-end adjusted net cash was £3.0m (FY20 net debt £40.7m). On 25 March 2022 Lookers completed the sale and leaseback of its site in Battersea, which generated cash of £28m, further bolstering the strong balance sheet. The board is reinstating dividends, proposing a FY21 payment of 2.5p per share.

Implementing strategy as challenges remain

Management says momentum remained strong through Q122. However, the challenges of vehicle supply constraints and inflationary pressures are being compounded by uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine, as well as the impact of rising costs on household and business budgets. We expect Lookers’ profitability to fall back towards historical levels as used prices plateau and margins moderate. At the same time the evolved strategy is being implemented, which should help to control costs and create new profitable revenue opportunities. Management is also preparing for the transition to electric vehicles, as well as an expected trend to agency arrangements with a number of brand partners. Capital investment is increasing to support the strategic initiatives.

Valuation: Undemanding rating

The single-digit FY23e P/E rating of 7.2x remains undemanding despite the strength of the share price. Our capped DCF valuation of 183p per share suggests some opportunity still exists, assuming markets start to recover next year.

FY21 results

Exhibit 1: Lookers FY21 results summary

Year to December (£m)	FY20	FY21	% change
Revenues	3,699.9	4,050.7	9.5%
Group gross profit	411.0	516.6	25.7%
Gross margin	11.1%	12.8%
EBITDA	95.0	165.1	73.8%
Depreciation	(47.4)	(45.9)	-3.2%
EBITA (underlying)	47.6	119.2	150.4%
Amortisation	(4.8)	(5.0)	4.2%
OPBIT (underlying)	42.8	114.2	166.8%
Exceptional items	(12.2)	(0.1)
Financial Items	(29.1)	(24.1)	-17.2%
Pre-tax profit (underlying)	13.7	90.1	557.7%
Taxation	(2.7)	(11.6)
Tax rate	19.1%	12.9%
Net income (underlying)	11.6	78.5	576.7%
EPS (p) – reported	(1.2)	15.6	N/M
EPS (p) – underlying fully diluted	2.97	19.95	575.1%
DPS (p)	0.00	2.50
Adjusted net debt/(cash)	40.7	(3.0)

Source: Company reports

Lookers’ performance in FY21 was a record by a considerable degree. Group revenue was up 9% to £4.05bn (FY20: £3.70bn), with the gross profit margin rising to an exceptional 12.8% (FY20: 11.1%), largely reflecting the buoyancy of used vehicle margins though new car margins also improved. Underlying profit before tax of £90.1m (FY20 restated: £13.7m) was ahead of our £86.0m forecast, and year-end adjusted net cash (excluding leases) was £3.0m (FY20 net debt: £40.7m). Adjusted net cash (excluding leases) has been bolstered in Q122 by the sale and leaseback of its VW site in Battersea for £28m before costs, generating a property profit of c £18m. A right-of-use asset of around £19m replaces the fixed asset book value of £10m. The board is reinstating dividends and proposes a FY21 dividend of 2.5p per share, ahead of our 2.0p estimate.

New car margins improve as supply constraints continue

In the new car segment Lookers outperformed in the retail market with registrations rising 9.7% versus the 7.4% increase in UK retail registrations. Fleet sales were flat which was a modest underperformance of the total market car fleet and van registrations combined, which rose 2.0%. The outcome reflected Lookers’ more selective approach to some fleet business. Overall unit sales increased 3.9%, broadly in line with the total UK market increase of 4.1%.

Exhibit 2: Lookers new car segment performance

	2020	2021	% change
UK registrations
Car retail	747,507	802,504	7.4%
Car fleet	883,557	844,677	-4.4%
Vans	292,657	355,380	21.4%
Total market	1,923,721	2,002,561	4.1%
Lookers (units)
Retail	35,226	38,657	9.7%
Fleet (incl. vans)	51,329	51,310	0.0%
Total	86,555	89,967	3.9%

Source: SMMT, company reports

The new car average selling price rose 5.0% to £20,743 (FY20: £19,748), which left revenues up 9.2%. With the constrained new vehicle supply being directed to more profitable channels, gross margin increased to 7.4% (6.6%). It is worth noting that Lookers saw the BEV (battery electric vehicle) share of its total registrations increase to 16.1% from 10.2% in FY20, ahead of the market mix of 11.2% and indicating Lookers is well advanced on the growing segment aided by its Polestar franchise. The year-end new vehicle order book was a record for the group of almost 20,000 vehicles.

Exceptional year for used car prices and margins

Market conditions in the used segment remained strong through the year with an 8% rise in average selling prices on volumes up 6% at 83,141 units (78,341). Revenues rose 14.6% and gross profit margins increased to 8.8% (FY20: 6.6%).

The aftersales performance remained robust despite a number of challenges, including lower new car registrations and tightening labour markets. Revenues grew by 11.8% to £429,3m and gross margin only fell marginally to 42.5% (FY20: 42.9%) reflecting the sales mix.

The smaller leasing business also made progress with an exceptional H22 performance reflecting strong residual values. While revenue fell by 8% the gross profit contribution increased 18%.

Exhibit 3: Lookers half yearly analysis

Year-end December (£m)	2020			2021			% change
	H120	H220	FY20	H121	H221	FY20	H120	H220	FY
New Car	705.0	1,004.3	1,709.3	1,027.5	838.7	1,866.2	46%	-16%	9%
Used Car	770.3	1,008.8	1,779.1	1,044.8	993.9	2,038.7	36%	-1%	15%
Aftersales	162.1	221.7	383.8	211.3	217.9	429.2	30%	-2%	12%
Leasing	59.4	89.0	148.4	79.3	57.6	136.9	34%	-35%	-8%
Intra-group sales	(126.2)	(194.5)	(320.7)	(209.7)	(210.6)	(420.3)	66%	8%	31%
Revenues	1,570.6	2,129.3	3,699.9	2,153.2	1,897.5	4,050.7	37%	-11%	9%
New Cars	42.7	66.5	109.2	66.6	64.7	131.3	56%	-3%	20%
Used Car	43.5	74.4	117.9	89.8	90.5	180.3	106%	22%	53%
Aftersales	69.0	95.6	164.6	92.4	89.8	182.2	34%	-6%	11%
Leasing	7.2	12.1	19.3	8.8	14.0	22.8	22%	16%	18%
Group gross profit	162.4	248.6	411.0	257.6	259.0	516.6	59%	4%	26%
New Car	6.1%	6.6%	6.4%	6.5%	7.7%	7.0%
Used Car	5.6%	7.4%	6.6%	8.6%	9.1%	8.8%
Aftersales	42.6%	43.1%	42.9%	43.7%	41.2%	42.5%
Leasing	12.1%	13.6%	13.0%	11.1%	24.3%	16.7%
Group gross margin	10.3%	11.7%	11.1%	12.0%	13.6%	12.8%

Source: Company reports

Outlook

The UK automotive market still faces a mixture of positive and negative supply and demand issues, which have persisted since lockdown was lifted. The lack of new car availability and sales has led to increased demand for high quality used cars. However, availability is being squeezed by the historic drops in new car sales and deferrals of replacing cars coming off personal contract purchase, or PCP, and leasing contracts. The supply issue has affected both retail and business buyers. The positive impact on margin achievement for new car transactions was surpassed by the used car segment as prices rose at unprecedented rates to exceptional levels. There are reports of some used car prices exceeding new car prices. Certainly, the amount of used vehicle value depreciation has been significantly reduced and seems unlikely to reverse quickly. Demand has to date remained healthy, with buyers sometimes opting for used cars or retaining existing vehicles rather than waiting for the extended lead times that new car supply constraints have caused.

We now expect used car prices to remain firm through 2022 as new vehicle supply issues persist. Used supply is likely to face extended issues as lower pandemic period new car sales start to be reflected in 2023. However, used margins may start to moderate as input prices rise and used prices plateau.

While vehicle demand following the first lockdown that ended in June 2020 was initially driven by a switch from public transport, subsequent transactions were supported by increases in savings and disposable income as a result of constraints on other spending opportunities during the pandemic (eg overseas travel, entertainment etc).

What is apparent from March 2022 car registrations is that the UK market remains depressed by the lack of new car supply due to the global chip shortages. The registration levels achieved are very low compared to pre-pandemic levels and we do not expect quarterly new car sales for Lookers to change considerably as the year progresses, despite it entering the year with a record order bank.

There is a risk that the inflationary pressures from higher energy prices may have a double negative influence on vehicle demand. Household and business budgets are being squeezed by higher electricity and gas bills as well as other cost inflation. In addition, the increase in petrol prices is making personal transport more expensive, which could reverse the trend away from public transport as people live more readily with the virus.

Within that environment Lookers will pursue its evolved strategy. The six pillars are:

■

Operational optimisation across the operations remains the cornerstone of the strategy. It incorporates financial product penetration, purchasing power benefits, tight control of working capital and inventory management, increasing aftersales penetration on used vehicles, and enhancing lead generation and conversion in both new and used cars.

■

Leveraging technology and digitalisation in its multichannel offering is a key enabler. It includes standardising key platforms. The harmonisation of the DMS (the dealer management system) should complete in H123 and a £6m sales transformation programme is also underway to materially improve the customer relationship management process, data analytics and AI utilisation. The initiatives should improve efficiencies and reduce costs.

■

Expanding OEM relationships: seeking selective infill opportunities with the existing 32 brand partners, increasing engagement with new EV market entrants building on the success with Polestar, and preparing for transitions to agency models for some partners.

■

Increasing used vehicle penetration lifting share by adding to its existing franchise channel and 11 standalone used vehicle centres. It is seeking to add a Lookers Cube concept with a multi franchise, multi service facility on large five-acre sites. Two proof-of-concept evaluation leasehold sites each costing £15–20m in capex are being sought in Lookers’ heartlands with four more expected to follow.

■

Developing aftersales revenues by adding services to recapture margin currently paid away (eg cosmetic repairs), as well as increasing penetration of service plans in used and new vehicles segments. Lookers is already training service technicians for EVs, with 25% already accredited.

■

Leveraging corporate leasing and fleet capabilities. The three currently independent businesses are being consolidated into Lookers Vehicle Solutions with a fleet of around 12,000 vehicles providing purchasing and other synergistic opportunities. It also supports new product developments including a subscription offering. All de-fleeting activity will be directed internally to retain more of the disposal margin within the group.

Earnings revisions

While FY21 turned out to be a remarkably profitable one, we remain cautious about the outlook for FY22 despite the persistence of positive use car pricing dynamics. Inflationary pressures and the supply/demand factors previously discussed are likely to be exacerbated by the energy crisis, as well as uncertainties regarding the impact on supply of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

We expect to see new car registrations remain relatively flat on Q122, which themselves are depressed on historic pre-pandemic levels. As there were no lockdowns in early 2022 we do not expect the surge in market sales seen in Q221, which reflected the return of active showroom demand. In addition, we expect the squeeze on used car margins to be reflected progressively during the year.

We have reduced our sales estimate for FY22 but increased our gross margin compared to our previous forecast, which leads to only marginal changes to our previous underlying PBT forecast. We note that the level of profitability while well below FY21 is close to pre-pandemic highs.

Management is restoring dividends and the new policy is expected to be progressive with a level of earnings cover in the range of 3.5x to 4.5x. In 2022 we expect the dividend to be paid as an interim and final with a ratio of 1:2 and for a full year payment of 3.0p per share.

We also publish our FY23 estimates for the first time, expecting only a modest 3% increase in revenues to £4.37bn with underlying PBT rising 13% y-o-y to £60.0m.

Exhibit 4: Lookers earnings revisions

Year to December (£m)	2021e	2021a		2022e	2022e		2023e
	Prior	Reported	% change	Prior	New	% change	New
Revenues
New	1,961.5	1,866.2	-4.9%	2,094.4	1,994.3	-4.8%	2,054.2
Used	2,188.3	2,038.7	-6.8%	2,232.1	2,079.5	-6.8%	2,141.9
Aftersales	429.9	429.2	-0.2%	442.8	442.1	-0.2%	455.3
Leasing	160.3	136.9	-14.6%	165.1	141.0	-14.6%	145.2
Intra group	(409.1)	(420.3)	2.7%	(406.3)	(425.8)	4.8%	(426.6)
Group revenues	4,330.9	4,050.7	-6.5%	4,528.0	4,231.0	-6.6%	4,370.0

EBITDA	180.6	165.1	-8.6%	150.4	128.3	-14.7%	137.8
Underlying EBITA	120.7	119.2	-1.2%	86.4	81.8	-5.4%	88.7
Underlying OPBIT	115.3	114.2	-1.0%	81.1	76.8	-5.3%	83.7
Underlying PBT	86.0	90.1	4.8%	51.4	53.0	3.0%	60.0

EPS - underlying fully diluted (p)	17.36	19.95	14.9%	10.36	10.88	5.0%	12.03
DPS (p)	2.00	2.50	25.0%	3.30	3.00	-9.1%	3.30
Net debt/(cash)	(8.5)	(3.0)	-64.7%	16.9	(32.4)	n.m.	(47.0)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

	£m	2020*	2021	2022e	2023e
Year end 31 December		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue		3,699.9	4,050.7	4,231.0	4,370.0
Cost of Sales		(3,288.9)	(3,534.1)	(3,723.3)	(3,845.6)
Gross Profit		411.0	516.6	507.7	524.4
EBITDA		95.0	165.1	128.3	137.8
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)		47.6	119.2	81.8	88.7
Intangible Amortisation		(4.8)	(5.0)	(5.0)	(5.0)
Exceptionals		(12.2)	(0.1)	18.0	0.0
Other		(1.6)	(2.0)	(2.0)	(2.0)
Operating Profit		29.0	112.1	92.7	81.7
Net Interest		(21.2)	(16.1)	(15.8)	(15.6)
Profit Before Tax (norm)		13.7	90.1	53.0	60.0
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)		1.5	90.0	71.0	60.0
Tax		(6.1)	(28.8)	(13.5)	(12.6)
Profit After Tax (norm)		11.6	78.5	42.9	47.4
Profit After Tax (FRS 3)		(4.6)	61.2	57.5	47.4

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)		390.1	391.1	391.8	391.8
EPS		2.97	20.07	10.95	12.10
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)		2.97	19.95	10.88	12.03
EPS - (IFRS) (p)		(1.18)	15.65	14.67	12.10
Dividend per share (p)		0.00	2.50	3.00	3.30

Gross Margin (%)		11.1	12.8	12.0	12.0
EBITDA Margin (%)		2.6	4.1	3.0	3.2
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)		1.3	2.9	1.9	2.0

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		714.4	702.2	714.5	726.1
Intangible Assets		190.1	187.2	192.2	197.2
Tangible Assets		399.9	399.3	395.7	413.0
Right of use asset		124.4	115.7	126.6	115.9
Investments		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Current Assets		1,063.0	762.4	797.6	841.3
Stocks		655.2	511.9	524.6	541.9
Debtors		150.7	136.0	138.0	144.1
Cash		243.0	103.9	123.9	143.9
Other		14.1	10.6	11.1	11.4
Current Liabilities		(1,029.9)	(813.2)	(732.0)	(748.4)
Creditors		(913.0)	(729.6)	(732.0)	(748.4)
Short term borrowings		(116.9)	(83.6)	0.0	0.0
Long Term Liabilities		(464.6)	(281.8)	(364.9)	(369.2)
Long term borrowings		(166.8)	(17.3)	(91.5)	(96.9)
Lease liabilities		(145.5)	(136.8)	(146.8)	(146.8)
Other long term liabilities		(152.3)	(127.7)	(126.6)	(125.5)
Net Assets		282.9	369.6	415.3	449.8

CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow		68.2	114.6	78.0	89.2
Net Interest		(24.3)	(21.2)	(16.1)	(15.8)
Tax		(6.1)	(28.8)	(13.5)	(12.6)
Capex		(16.8)	(17.4)	(33.3)	(34.0)
Acquisitions/disposals		0.0	0.0	28.0	0.0
Financing		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dividends		0.0	0.0	(13.7)	(12.1)
Other		(2.2)	(3.5)	0.0	0.0
Net Cash Flow		18.8	43.7	29.4	14.6
Opening net debt/(cash)		59.5	40.7	(3.0)	(32.4)
HP finance leases initiated		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other		0.0	0.0	(0.0)	0.0
Closing net debt/(cash)		40.7	(3.0)	(32.4)	(47.0)
Net financial Liabilities		186.2	133.8	114.4	99.8

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Restated.

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Lookers (LN: LOOK)

Lookers — Record FY21, but challenges remain

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VietNam Holding — First redemption tender a success

OSE Immunotherapeutics — Full Lusvertikimab results reflect potential in UC

Murray Income Trust — Income focus keeps paying dividends

AUSTRIACARD — Solid Q324 supports FY24 outlook

HELLENiQ ENERGY — Margins troughed in Q3, expect Q4 improvement

More on Lookers

Lookers — Smoothing out the bumps

Lookers — Record FY21, but challenges remain

Lookers — Normal service has been resumed

Lookers — Strong performance continued through Q321

Latest from the Industrials sector

Solid State — Defence contract delay affects expectations

Melrose Industries — H224 progress in line with guidance

Smiths News — Growth potential and a double-digit yield

Braemar — On track to achieve FY25 targets

Treatt — Reverting to a normal split

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