Theon International — Record order book and upgrade to FY25

Theon International (AMS: THEON)

Last close As at 03/01/2025

EUR13.20

0.62 (4.93%)

Market capitalisation

EUR924m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Theon International — Record order book and upgrade to FY25

Theon International is a market leader in the defence optronics (night vision and thermal imaging) sector. Strong order intake, particularly in Q424, has enabled management to provide a positive outlook for FY25, including c 20% revenue growth. Adding in the mid-20% operating margins, we see the shares offering clear attractions on the current undemanding P/E rating of 11x in FY25e.

David Larkam

Written by

David Larkam

Analyst, Industrials

Industrials

Theon International

Record order book and upgrade to FY25

FY25 guidance released

Aerospace and defence

2 January 2025

Price

€12.6

Market cap

€881m

Net cash (€m) at 30 September 2024 (including deposits with maturity longer than three months)

35.9

Shares in issue

70.0

Free float

22%

Code

THEON

Primary exchange

Euronext Amsterdam

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.2

23.3

N/A

Rel (local)

15.3

27.8

N/A

52-week high/low

€14.05

€8.74

Business description

Theon International develops and manufactures customisable night vision and thermal imaging systems, primarily for military and security applications. These optoelectronic devices are developed for both man-portable and platform applications.

Next events

FY24 results

14 February 2025

Q125 update

28 April 2025

Analyst

David Larkam

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Theon International is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Theon International is a market leader in the defence optronics (night vision and thermal imaging) sector. Strong order intake, particularly in Q424, has enabled management to provide a positive outlook for FY25, including c 20% revenue growth. Adding in the mid-20% operating margins, we see the shares offering clear attractions on the current undemanding P/E rating of 11x in FY25e.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

142.9

37.8

N/A

0

N/A

N/A

12/23

218.7

49.9

N/A

0

N/A

N/A

12/24e

349.6

82.9

93

31

13.5

2.5

12/25e

420.1

105.2

114

38

11.0

3.0

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

New guidance for FY25 and forecast changes

The company has issued guidance for FY25. Revenue is expected to be €410–430m, which suggests c 20% y-o-y growth and is supported by 80% soft order cover, with Theon’s sector-leading ‘mid-20s’ margins to be maintained. Capex is expected to increase by 25% to €20m to support growth. Management has not provided guidance for FY26, but a soft order book of c €300m for FY26, continued strong defence spend and the anticipated contribution from new platform products underpin our assumption for further strong growth. For FY25, we forecast organic revenue growth of 20.2%, up from 12.5%, PBT of €105.2m, up from €95.9m (+9.7%) and EPS of 114c, up from 104c (+9.8%). For FY26, we estimate organic revenue growth of 14.9%, up from 11.5%, PBT of €123.8m, up from €110.9m (+11.6%) and EPS of 133c, up from 119c (+11.9%).

Positive backlog momentum

Theon announced a number of new contract wins in Q424. Of particular note was exercising the third option of the Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR) agreement for the supply of binocular night vision (BNVG) systems to the German armed forces. As a consequence, the soft order book increased from €540m at end FY23 to over €650m at end FY24, more than 20% higher.

Valuation: Strong upside despite recent performance

We increase our peer-based relative valuation from €19.7/share to €21.2/share and our discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation from €15.8/share to €17.8/share, despite using a conservative weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10%. The shares have performed strongly since the IPO (at €10/share). Nevertheless, we would expect this valuation gap to continue to narrow as the company delivers on its strategy, and investor understanding and confidence in the business improve.

Order book and guidance update

Significant order intake and backlog progression in Q4

Order intake accelerated through the year to more than €510m, significantly ahead of expected revenues (last guidance was at the upper end of the €340–350m range). The soft order book at the year-end was over €650m, up by more than 20% on the year (see Exhibit 1), providing significant visibility into FY25 and FY26. Management also commented that ‘new order intake is expected to continue in the new year’, supported by continued defence expenditure to maintain operational capabilities.

Key order announcements in Q4 are as follows:

18 December 2024: exercise of the third consecutive option of the OCCAR agreement for the supply of BNVG systems to the German armed forces. This contract is operated through Theon’s JV with Hensoldt. The exact value of the contract extension has not been released, although management commented that the group’s soft backlog would now extend to over €650m. There remains a further similar-sized option to be exercised.

9 December 2024: two orders with a total value of €47m for Argus monoculars, NYX binoculars and the IRIS-C thermal imaging clip-on system, part of the new Augmented Reality Modular Ecosystem of Devices (ARMED) devices.

20 November 2024: order intake for binoculars increased the soft backlog by c €74m and is expected to convert to a hard backlog over the next few months.

7 November 2024: new order intake/increased soft backlog of c $50m across the US, Europe, and Middle East. Orders included night vision goggles, including the NYX binocular family, and the thermal imaging clip-on system, IRIS.

Exhibit 1: Soft order book

Source: Theon International

2025 guidance positive

Theon has released guidance for FY25. Revenue is expected to be in the range of €410–430m, with a high degree of confidence given that c 80% of the lower end of the range is covered by the soft order backlog. We note that the low end of €410m equates to c 63% of the total soft backlog, which is similar to the outcome seen in FY24, with sales expected to be c €350m against a soft backlog at the beginning of the year of €540m. This guidance excludes any benefits from the investment into new products in the platform business, which are only expected to accrue from FY26. Guidance for Theon’s sector is that leading ‘mid-20s’ margins will be maintained.

Capex is expected to increase to €20m, from €15m in FY24, to assist growth. This will include investment at Harder Digital, the image intensifier tube manufacturer acquired in 2024. Management also previously announced the exercise of an option with Exosens for additional tubes, which, along with Harder Digital, secures the required capacity of this critical component.

No guidance has provided for FY26, although management anticipates the positive background from growth in defence spend to continue and to be supplemented by investment in new products, such as the ARMED ecosystem, highlighted by a recent contract win. Non-organic means are also expected to form part of the growth strategy supported by the strong balance sheet and we forecast net cash of €80m at the end of FY24.

Forecast updates

For FY24, we have increased our expected revenue marginally to reflect recent guidance ‘towards the upper end’ but have not changed any other expectations. For FY25, we have used the midpoint in revenue guidance suggesting growth of 20%, along with the retention of mid-teen operating margins. For FY26, we have assumed 15% growth supported by the strong soft order backlog of €300m for the year, a market growth CAGR of 11.5% from 2022 to 2027 forecast by Renaissance Strategic Advisors (source: Theon IPO prospectus) and traction from new products, especially within the platform arena.

Exhibit 2: Forecast changes

2025e

2026e

€m

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Revenues

382

420

10.0%

426

483

13.4%

Normalised operating profit (incl. JVs)

95.9

105.2

9.7%

110.9

123.8

11.6%

Normalised operating profit margin

24.2%

24.2%

0.0%

25.0%

24.8%

-0.2%

Normalised PBT

95.9

105.2

9.7%

110.9

123.8

11.6%

Normalised basic EPS

103.8

114.0

9.8%

119.0

133.2

11.9%

Dividend per share

34.6

38.0

9.8%

39.7

44.4

11.9%

Net debt/(cash)

(104)

(100)

-3.4%

(143)

(137)

-4.2%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

Peer comparison

We have valued Theon against companies involved in enhanced vision systems and a range of small to mid-sized defence-orientated companies. The first cohort suggests a valuation of €19.6 per share and the second €22.8 per share based on average EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and P/E in 2024–26e.

Exhibit 3: Peer-based valuation

Market cap

EV/EBIT (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

P/E (x)

€m

2024e

2025e

2026e

2024e

2025e

2026e

2024e

2025e

2026e

Theon

913

10.3

8.0

6.5

10.9

8.6

7.2

13.7

11.1

9.5

Enhanced vision systems

Elbit Systems

10,694

79.9

73.7

67.8

64.1

57.2

52.9

118.0

117.3

101.6

Hensoldt

3,938

14.9

12.4

10.6

10.8

9.2

8.0

22.3

18.0

15.4

L3Harris

37,698

14.1

13.1

12.2

11.1

10.4

9.9

16.2

14.7

13.3

Exosens

980

13.9

11.7

10.9

10.2

9.0

8.5

17.6

13.1

11.8

Teledyne

19,486

21.0

19.1

17.9

17.6

16.3

15.1

22.9

20.8

19.0

Median

14.9

13.1

12.2

11.1

10.4

9.9

22.3

18.0

15.4

THEON EBIT/EBITDA/EPS

81

102

120

84

106

126

92.6

114.0

133.2

Enterprise valuation

1,217

1,328

1,462

928

1,106

1,237

Cash/(debt)*

81

105

149

81

105

149

THEON equity valuation

1,297

1,433

1,611

1,008

1,211

1,386

THEON valuation (per share)

18.5

20.5

23.0

14.4

17.3

19.8

20.7

20.5

20.5

Specialist defence

Avon Technologies

510

15.3

11.8

10.1

10.9

9.3

8.6

20.3

14.5

12.3

Cadre Holdings

1,233

21.1

16.7

14.8

13.7

12.2

11.3

30.9

24.3

21.0

Chemring

1,051

13.6

11.9

10.4

9.7

8.9

7.8

16.8

16.1

14.4

Cohort

554

18.7

17.1

14.9

15.2

11.6

10.5

25.1

21.7

18.2

DroneShield

349

157.6

25.9

14.2

102.8

22.8

13.1

72.8

31.2

19.3

Electro Optic Systems

142

349.5

25.6

24.3

24.7

13.7

14.5

-12.2

61.3

15.0

Invisio

1,071

37.7

29.8

23.8

32.2

25.9

21.2

52.5

40.3

32.2

QinetiQ

2,725

10.5

9.5

8.7

7.8

7.2

6.7

12.9

11.4

10.5

RENK

1,908

14.1

10.9

9.3

10.7

8.6

7.4

20.3

14.3

11.9

Median

19.9

16.9

14.4

14.4

11.9

10.9

22.7

23.0

16.1

THEON EBIT/EBITDA

81

102

120

84

106

126

92.6

114.0

133.2

Enterprise valuation

1,623

1,716

1,719

1,209

1,268

1,359

Cash/(debt)*

81

105

149

81

105

149

THEON equity valuation

1,704

1,821

1,868

1,289

1,373

1,507

THEON valuation (per share)

24.3

26.0

26.7

18.4

19.6

21.5

21.0

26.2

21.4

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes €50m of fixed-term deposits over three months. Prices as of 30 December 2024.

Discounted cash flow

Our DCF valuation uses a five-year forecast followed by a terminal value. We have updated our valuation for the upgrade to forecasts and rolled forward for the new year. We use a WACC of 10% to reflect the Greek market risk premium. We see this as highly conservative at the very least, given that sales to Theon’s domestic market are minimal.

Exhibit 4: DCF valuation (€/share)

Long-term growth rate

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

WACC

13.0%

12.8

13.5

14.3

15.3

12.0%

13.8

14.6

15.7

17.0

11.0%

14.9

16.0

17.4

19.1

10.0%

16.4

17.8

19.6

22.0

9.0%

18.2

20.0

22.5

26.0

8.0%

20.5

23.0

26.6

31.9

7.0%

23.6

27.3

32.7

41.8

Source: Edison Investment Research

Overall valuation

Our DCF valuation of €17.8 per share increases by 12.6%, benefiting from the upgrade to expectations as well as the roll forward. Our peer-based relative valuation of €21.2 per share improves by a more modest 7.1%, in part reflecting a recent de-rating in the specialist electronics sector, which includes Theon’s enhance vision systems peers.

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

€m

2022

2023

2024e

2025e

2026e

Year to 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

142.9

218.7

349.6

420.1

482.9

Cost of Sales

(92.7)

(148.5)

(243.7)

(285.7)

(326.0)

Gross Profit

50.2

70.2

105.9

134.4

157.0

EBITDA

 

 

41.7

57.2

83.6

106.4

125.1

Normalised operating profit

 

 

40.2

55.7

81.4

101.7

119.8

Reported operating profit

40.2

55.7

81.4

101.7

119.8

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.6

3.0

3.5

4.0

Net Interest

(2.5)

(6.5)

(1.5)

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

37.8

49.9

82.9

105.2

123.8

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

37.8

49.9

82.9

105.2

123.8

Reported tax

(7.8)

(13.8)

(18.4)

(23.4)

(27.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

30.0

36.1

64.5

81.8

96.2

Profit After Tax (reported)

30.0

36.1

64.5

81.8

96.2

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

(0.1)

(2.0)

(3.0)

Net income (normalised)

30.0

36.1

64.4

79.8

93.2

Net income (reported)

30.0

36.1

64.4

79.8

93.2

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

N/A

20

60

70

70

EPS - basic normalised (c)

 

 

N/A

N/A

93

114

133

EPS - diluted normalised (c)

 

 

N/A

N/A

93

114

133

EPS - basic reported (c)

 

 

N/A

N/A

93

114

133

Dividend (c)

0

0

31

38

44

Revenue growth (%)

77.4

53.1

59.8

20.2

14.9

Gross Margin (%)

35.1

32.1

30.3

32.0

32.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

29.2

26.1

23.9

25.3

25.9

Normalised Operating Margin (%)

28.2

25.5

23.3

24.2

24.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

22.0

21.7

46.3

62.8

77.6

Intangible Assets

0.8

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.3

Tangible Assets

10.6

17.4

40.6

56.6

70.9

Investments & other

10.6

2.9

3.8

4.2

4.5

Current Assets

 

 

135.4

188.8

318.1

375.6

443.9

Stocks

34.0

63.6

101.7

122.2

140.5

Debtors

68.0

46.1

73.7

88.5

101.8

Cash & short term deposits

24.0

65.6

129.3

151.4

188.2

Other

9.3

13.4

13.4

13.4

13.4

Current Liabilities

 

 

(89.1)

(100.1)

(117.7)

(136.4)

(153.4)

Creditors

(24.0)

(41.8)

(66.8)

(80.3)

(92.3)

Tax and social security

(6.1)

(8.0)

(9.8)

(12.2)

(14.9)

Short term borrowings

(31.0)

(32.4)

(28.9)

(25.4)

(25.4)

Other

(28.1)

(17.9)

(12.1)

(18.5)

(20.8)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(4.0)

(33.0)

(33.5)

(35.6)

(39.6)

Long term borrowings

(3.1)

(32.1)

(25.5)

(25.5)

(25.5)

Other long term liabilities

(0.9)

(0.9)

(8.0)

(10.1)

(14.1)

Net Assets

 

 

64.3

77.5

213.2

266.4

328.5

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

10.0

10.0

10.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

64.3

77.5

223.2

276.4

338.5

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

41.7

57.2

83.6

106.4

126.1

Working capital

(44.1)

(8.6)

(29.1)

(11.9)

(11.9)

Exceptional & other

0.0

0.4

(4.0)

(5.5)

(7.0)

Tax

(3.7)

(11.3)

(16.5)

(21.0)

(24.8)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(6.1)

37.7

34.0

68.0

82.4

Capex

(3.7)

(7.6)

(15.0)

(20.0)

(20.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(0.3)

(0.5)

(20.0)

(6.0)

(1.0)

Net interest

(0.2)

(2.0)

0.0

1.8

2.0

Equity financing

0.0

0.0

93.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

(10.0)

(14.4)

(21.6)

(26.6)

Net Cash Flow

(10.3)

17.6

77.6

22.1

36.8

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9.0)

10.0

(0.8)

(78.4)

(100.5)

FX

0.0

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

(8.7)

(6.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

10.0

(0.8)

(78.4)

(100.5)

(137.3)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


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Australia

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

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United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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