S&U — Regulatory uncertainty holding back recovery

S&U (LSE: SUS)

Last close As at 13/12/2024

GBP14.70

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GBP178m

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Research: Financials

S&U — Regulatory uncertainty holding back recovery

S&U’s trading update, covering the H225 period up to 10 December 2024, contrasts strong growth in the property lending division with regulatory headwinds for motor finance. Positive news of the lifting of temporary restrictions on motor finance collections was quickly followed by a surprise Appeal Court ruling against other lenders regarding FCA-compliant motor finance commissions. This is a separate issue from that of discretionary commission, to which S&U is not exposed. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal, a development of great significance to lenders across the consumer finance sector and the regulator.

Martyn King

Written by

Martyn King

Director, Financials

Financials

S&U

Regulatory uncertainty holding back recovery

Trading update

Financial services

16 December 2024

Price

£14.70

Market cap

£179m

Borrowings (£m) as at 10 Dec. 2025

211

Shares in issue

12.2m

Free float

25%

Code

SUS

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

9.7

(17.4)

(29.3)

Rel (local)

6.3

(17.7)

(35.9)

52-week high/low

£22.40

£12.60

Business description

S&U’s Advantage motor finance business lends to lower- and middle-income groups that may have impaired credit records. The Aspen property bridging business supports UK residential property development and has been growing successfully since launch in 2017.

Next events

Q425 trading update

11 February 2025

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 7900 484 805

S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

S&U’s trading update, covering the H225 period up to 10 December 2024, contrasts strong growth in the property lending division with regulatory headwinds for motor finance. Positive news of the lifting of temporary restrictions on motor finance collections was quickly followed by a surprise Appeal Court ruling against other lenders regarding FCA-compliant motor finance commissions. This is a separate issue from that of discretionary commission, to which S&U is not exposed. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear an appeal, a development of great significance to lenders across the consumer finance sector and the regulator.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/23

102.7

41.4

277.5

133.0

5.3

9.0

01/24

115.4

33.6

209.3

120.0

7.0

8.2

01/25e

116.0

24.3

149.6

100.0

9.8

6.8

01/26e

113.9

31.2

192.3

120.0

7.6

8.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Aspen mitigating Advantage pressures

Group customer receivables of £449m were at a similar level to the same period last year, up 30% for Aspen but 10% lower for Advantage. Reflecting similar trends, group receivables are 5% down from H125. Motor repayments are yet to show a pickup and, combined with lower lending balances, S&U expects Advantage H225 PBT to be similar to H125. With its lending and credit quality strong, Aspen PBT in the period under review was up c 50% versus the prior year. We have reduced our FY25 group PBT forecast to £24.3m (from £27m) and FY26 to £31.2m (from £36.3m), with lower motor lending balances partly offsetting a collections recovery. At this stage, it is impossible to estimate the potential impact of regulatory or legal matters regarding legacy collections practices or commission payments.

Uncertainty until Supreme Court

FCA rules have long required that borrowers should be informed if their loan costs include commission paid by lenders to car dealers or other finance brokers (‘brokers’). In cases involving other lenders, based on its interpretation of common law, the Appeal Court ruled that brokers could not lawfully receive commission from a lender without informed borrower consent, including knowledge of the exact amount of commission paid. This has opened the door to claims against both brokers and lenders, with implications for the wider consumer finance sector. While we find it difficult to see the unfairness, harm or case for redress where FCA rules have been adhered to, it is now for the Supreme Court to decide, which we expect could take many months.

Valuation: Significant ‘risk discount’

The uncertain risk surrounding commission disclosure weighs heavily on the shares. The FY26e P/E multiple is 7.6x with a return on equity (RoE) of 10% (10-year average of 15%). Using a cost of equity (CoE) of 10% and a 2% growth rate in our RoE/CoE model, the implied valuation is c 1,920p, c 40% or £120m above the share price/market cap, providing an indication of the scale of the ‘risk discount’.

Further details on trading

As a basis for revenues, continued progress at Aspen is only partly offsetting the impact of net run-off and impairment in Advantage. Aspen receivables have reached £154m, up by 30% y-o-y, driven by a 23% increase in lending advances. Advantage net customer receivables of £295m were c 10% lower than both the prior year level and compared with end-H125 (£326m).

Exhibit 1: Advances and net receivables

£m

Jul-24

Jan-24

Jan-24

Jul-24

As of 10 December 2024

H124

H224

FY24

H125

H225 to date

FY25 to date

FY25 to date vs FY24*

Advances

Advantage Finance

81

95

176

73

24

97

-33%

Aspen

57

88

127

93

55

148

23%

Total advances in the period

138

183

303

166

79

245

Net customer receivables

Advantage Finance

313

332

332

326

295

295

-10%

Aspen

104

130

130

149

154

154

30%

Total receivables at period end

417

463

475

475

449

449

Source: S&U data. Note: Advantage Finance FY25 year-to-date advances are an Edison estimate based on data disclosed in the FY24 results presentation. *The percentage change FY25 to date is compared with the equivalent period of FY25.

Aspen Bridging

Profit growth at Aspen is being driven by strong growth in lending and receivables balances, while credit quality remains strong and the blended yield on lending is above the level budgeted by management. Revenues of £18m year-to-date are at a new high level. The pipeline of bridging finance for smaller developers and builders remains strong, and the product range is also being gradually expended, most recently to encompass slightly longer duration. The government’s target of building 300,000 new homes a year provides a supportive backdrop.

Advantage Finance

Advantage has continued to lend selectively as it adjusts to new collections practices and strikes an appropriate balance between risk and return on capital. This may now be more difficult to achieve at the higher-risk end of the market, while competition at the lower-risk, nearer-prime end space can be greater. While the surprise Appeal Court ruling has had a market impact, Advantage was able to quickly adjust its administrative and contract processes and continue to write business without interruption, which was not the case with some other lenders.

We expect a steady but material improvement in collections going forward although this is yet to emerge. We suspect the significant media coverage of industry regulatory issues and the Appeal Court judgement, combined the vigorous activities of claims management companies may be having some impact on some borrowers and their propensity for repayment.

For the period covered by the trading statement, the collections rate was 86%, similar to H125 but lower than the prior year period (91%).

While the temporary restrictions on collections agreed with the FCA have been lifted, the discussions are ongoing and, pending completion, there is no new guidance from the company regarding potential remediation for any adverse impact on customers who may be affected by legacy practice. This remains as a contingent liability, too uncertain to be reliably assessed. We do not expect a material impact, which in any case would be one-off in nature.

Forecast update

The table below shows our revised forecasts. For group PBT, we now expect £24.3m in FY25 (previously £27m) and, while we still expect a strong bounce-back in FY26, it is from a lower base with PBT of £31.2m (previously £36.3m). The forecast reductions are entirely driven by Advantage. For FY25, this is primarily driven by the slower improvement in Advantage customer repayments, reflected in higher impairments. Lower average motor finance customer receivables will have a more significant impact in FY26, partly offsetting the improvement that we expect in impairments.

With Aspen performing strongly, customer receivables are above our previous assumptions and we expect this to continue, generating an uplift to our forecasts and providing a slight offset to our reduced expectations for Advantage.

We have not changed our assumptions for DPS, reduced at the interim results stage, but note that our earnings forecast reductions maintain upwards pressure on the payout ratio, traditionally in the range of 50%. We estimate a payout ratio of 67% for FY25, falling to 62% in FY26. Supporting our DPS assumption, the decline in Advantage receivables is reflected in lower borrowings, which were £211m at the end of the period, down £28m from H125. There is significant headroom to the current borrowing capacity of £280m, of which £230m matures in May 2026.

Exhibit 2: Summary of forecast changes

New forecast

Old forecast

Change

£m unless stated otherwise

FY25

FY26

FY25

FY26

FY25

FY26

Advantage average net loans outstanding

290.0

313.6

306.8

332.4

(16.8)

(18.8)

Aspen average net loans outstanding

160.0

186.9

160.0

186.9

0.0

0.0

Total net loans outstanding

450.0

500.5

466.8

519.3

(16.8)

(18.8)

Advantage revenues

92.3

85.7

94.6

94.0

(2.3)

(8.3)

Aspen revenues

23.6

28.2

23.3

26.3

0.3

1.9

Total revenues

116.0

113.9

117.9

120.3

(1.9)

(6.4)

Advantage cost of sales

(13.6)

(20.0)

(17.1)

(19.5)

3.4

(0.5)

Aspen cost of sales

(2.5)

(3.1)

(2.5)

(2.9)

(0.0)

(0.2)

Total cost of sales

(16.2)

(23.1)

(19.6)

(22.4)

3.4

(0.7)

Advantage impairments

(35.0)

(19.3)

(31.7)

(21.1)

(3.2)

1.8

Aspen impairments

(1.6)

(1.9)

(1.6)

(1.8)

(0.0)

(0.1)

Total impairments

(36.6)

(21.2)

(33.4)

(22.9)

(3.2)

1.7

Advantage gross profit

43.8

46.5

45.8

53.4

(2.0)

(7.0)

Aspen gross profit

19.5

23.1

19.2

21.6

0.3

1.5

Total gross profit

63.2

69.6

65.0

75.0

(1.7)

(5.4)

Administrative expense

(20.3)

(20.5)

(19.3)

(20.5)

(1.0)

0.0

Finance costs

(18.6)

(18.0)

(18.7)

(18.3)

0.1

0.3

PBT

24.3

31.2

27.0

36.3

(2.6)

(5.1)

Tax

(6.2)

(7.8)

0.0

(7.3)

(6.2)

(0.5)

Net profit

18.2

23.4

27.0

29.0

(8.8)

(5.7)

EPS (p)

149.6

192.3

165.8

224.0

(16.2)

(31.7)

DPS (p)

100.0

120.0

100.0

120.0

0.0

0.0

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

Year end 31 January

£m

2022

2023

2024

2025e

2026e

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

87.9

102.7

115.4

116.0

113.9

Impairments

(4.1)

(13.9)

(24.2)

(36.6)

(21.2)

Other cost of sales

(18.8)

(23.7)

(22.8)

(16.2)

(23.1)

Administration expenses

(13.7)

(15.7)

(19.3)

(19.8)

(20.0)

EBITDA

 

51.3

49.4

49.2

43.4

49.6

Depreciation

 

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.)

 

50.8

48.9

48.6

42.9

49.1

Investment revenues / finance expense

(3.8)

(7.5)

(15.1)

(18.6)

(18.0)

Profit before tax

 

47.0

41.4

33.6

24.3

31.2

Tax

(9.0)

(7.7)

(8.1)

(6.2)

(7.8)

Profit after tax

 

38.0

33.7

25.4

18.2

23.4

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

12.1

12.1

12.2

12.2

12.2

Diluted EPS (p)

 

312.7

277.5

209.3

149.6

192.3

EPS - basic (p)

 

312.8

277.5

209.3

149.6

192.3

Dividend per share (p)

126.0

133.0

120.0

100.0

120.0

Payout ratio (DPS/EPS)

0.40

0.48

0.57

0.67

0.62

EBITDA margin (%)

58.4%

48.1%

42.6%

37.4%

43.5%

Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%)

57.8%

47.6%

42.1%

37.0%

43.1%

Return on equity

19.6%

15.6%

11.1%

7.7%

9.6%

BALANCE SHEET

Customer receivables

 

181.6

219.3

242.0

226.9

252.4

Other non-current assets

 

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.1

2.1

Total non-current assets

 

184.2

222.0

244.5

229.1

254.5

Customer receivables

 

141.3

201.4

221.0

223.1

248.1

Other current assets

1.7

4.7

1.4

1.9

1.8

Total current assets

 

143.0

206.1

222.4

225.0

249.9

Total assets

 

327.2

428.2

466.8

454.1

504.3

Borrowings

 

(2.6)

0.0

(0.9)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Other current liabilities

(6.2)

(6.9)

(7.6)

(5.5)

(5.6)

Total current liabilities

 

(8.8)

(6.9)

(8.5)

(6.5)

(6.7)

Borrowings

 

(111.0)

(195.5)

(223.5)

(208.5)

(248.0)

Preference shares

 

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Other non-current liabilities

 

17.3

13.4

16.7

12.8

13.1

Total non-current liabilities

(111.7)

(196.4)

(224.2)

(209.2)

(248.7)

Net assets

 

206.7

224.9

234.2

238.4

249.0

NAV per share (p)

1,702

1,852

1,928

1,962

2,050

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

(2.1)

(62.8)

(15.5)

29.5

(26.6)

Net cash from investing activities

(0.3)

(0.7)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Dividends paid

(12.3)

(15.5)

(16.2)

(14.0)

(12.8)

Other financing (excluding change in borrowing)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net cash flow

 

(14.6)

(79.0)

(31.9)

15.2

(39.7)

Opening net (debt)/cash

 

(99.3)

(114.0)

(193.0)

(224.8)

(209.6)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

(114.0)

(193.0)

(224.8)

(209.6)

(249.3)

Source: S&U historical data, Edison Investment Research forecasts


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S&U. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S&U. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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Research: Industrials

Carr’s Group — At an inflexion point

Carr’s Group plan to dispose of the Engineering businesses remains on track and will leave the company as a focused agricultural supplies business. Restructuring (both the cost base and exiting loss-making activities) along with actions from the new management and potential from a market upturn should provide positive forward momentum and support the future growth strategy.

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