Induction Healthcare Group — Secured outlook

Induction Healthcare Group (AIM: INHC)

Last close As at 21/11/2024

22.50

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

GBP21m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Induction Healthcare Group — Secured outlook

On a pro forma basis, Induction Healthcare’s FY22 results were in line with our forecasts and market consensus, with revenues up 8x y-o-y to £12.1m and a move to adjusted EBITDA break-even. Contract renewals for Attend Anywhere with the NHS at the end of FY22 saw higher retention rates than management expected, as well as some increases in contract value and length. These improvements drove an increase in the group’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) to £13.5m and help de-risk its recurring revenues moving forward as most were signed on a two- or three-year term. We believe the share price does not factor in this robust revenue visibility, with the group trading at an average 57% discount to its healthcare technology peers on EV/sales across FY23 and FY24.

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Written by

TMT

Induction Healthcare Group

Secured outlook

Final FY22 results

Software and comp services

30 November 2022

Price

31.5p

Market cap

£29m

Net cash (£m) at 31 March 2022

7.5

Shares in issue

92.1m

Free float

46.6%

Code

INHC

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(14.9)

(25.0)

(35.1)

Rel (local)

(20.2)

(25.7)

(35.9)

52-week high/low

65.5p

31.5p

Business description

Induction Healthcare is a UK-based healthcare technology company, primarily engaged in the provision of software to the UK’s secondary care market. Its products include Attend Anywhere, Zesty, Guidance, Switch and its Induction HealthStream platform. All its products are delivered over a SaaS platform, aiming to improve the efficiency of the market in myriad areas.

Next events

H123 results

5 December 2022

Analysts

Max Hayes

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Induction Healthcare Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

On a pro forma basis, Induction Healthcare’s FY22 results were in line with our forecasts and market consensus, with revenues up 8x y-o-y to £12.1m and a move to adjusted EBITDA break-even. Contract renewals for Attend Anywhere with the NHS at the end of FY22 saw higher retention rates than management expected, as well as some increases in contract value and length. These improvements drove an increase in the group’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) to £13.5m and help de-risk its recurring revenues moving forward as most were signed on a two- or three-year term. We believe the share price does not factor in this robust revenue visibility, with the group trading at an average 57% discount to its healthcare technology peers on EV/sales across FY23 and FY24.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

Adj EBITDA
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

EV/sales
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

03/21

1.4

(4.3)

(7.0)

(17.5)

0.0

15.8

N/A

03/22

7.9

(4.2)

(8.0)

(9.7)

0.0

2.7

N/A

03/23e

17.6

1.6

0.3

0.3

0.0

1.2

13.8

03/24e

21.0

2.4

1.2

1.0

0.0

1.0

8.9

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

One-off IFRS 3 adjustment reduces reported results

Reported FY22 revenue and profitability were affected by a £4.2m non-cash IFRS 3 adjustment relating to deferred revenue on Attend Anywhere’s balance sheet when Induction acquired it in June 2021. The same IFRS 3 accounting treatment had a similar, but much smaller impact on its FY21 results following the acquisition of Zesty in the year. We note that this is a one-off, non-cash adjustment and does not materially affect reported cash flows or our forecasts, which we show in more detail in Exhibit 1.

Robust outlook despite trading environment

In H123, the group signed a non-exclusive software reseller agreement with System C Healthcare, which will make it easier for NHS trusts already using System C’s CareFlow electronic patient record to procure Induction’s Zesty product. This provides positive tailwinds alongside both Attend Anywhere FY22 contract renewals and the current UK focus on improving digitisation in the NHS. We believe the UK will remain committed to investing in the NHS’s digital capabilities. However, the timing of these investments remains uncertain due to the challenging economic environment and we therefore leave our forecasts unchanged. In the longer term, management believes it could deliver ARR from the British Isles of £30–35m over the next three years as it builds on the integrated strategy for its current suite of products; M&A could boost this growth.

Valuation: Not factoring in revenue visibility

On EV/Sales, Induction trades at an average 57% discount to its healthcare technology peers across FY23 and FY24. Were the shares to trade at parity, the implied share price would be 57p, suggesting an upside of 53%.

IFRS 3 impact on reported performance

As shown in Exhibit 1, the application of IFRS 3 resulted in a £4.2m non-cash reduction in both reported revenue and EBITDA. This accounting standard requires the group to determine all acquired assets and liabilities at fair value, including the deferred income of the acquiree even if it subsequently becomes recognised as revenue.

The deferred income on Attend Anywhere’s balance sheet pre-acquisition would have been measured as the value of cash received from invoices less revenue recognised to date on the contracts related to the invoices. According to IFRS 3, on acquisition, the deferred income balance is revalued based on the costs incurred by the acquirer to deliver the contract plus a reasonable profit margin. In Induction’s case, those costs included hosting fees, staff costs to support the operation of the platform and provide support and maintenance, and other software fees required for the operation of the platform, to which a profit margin of 28% was applied. In total, this value was £4.2m lower than the deferred income recorded on Attend Anywhere’s balance sheet. The customer still has access to the same software and Attend Anywhere was paid the full amount in cash upfront, so there is no cash impact for Induction. For new Attend Anywhere contracts signed after the acquisition date, accounting reverts to the standard method of deferred income recognition.

On a pro forma basis, Induction Healthcare’s FY22 results were broadly in line with our forecasts, as can be seen in Exhibit 1. We believe this is a more accurate method of measuring Induction’s performance in the year, as Attend Anywhere’s deferred revenue was subsequently realised by Induction in the year and the accounting treatment had no impact on cash.

We note that the IFRS 3 accounting treatment had a similar, but far less substantial impact to the group’s performance in FY21 following the acquisition of Zesty.

Exhibit 1: Summary of impact of IFRS 3 on results

£000s

FY21 (old)

FY21 (restated)

Change

FY22e

FY22 (reported)

Change

Reported revenue

1,513

1,361

-10%

12,096

7,908

-35%

Attend Anywhere

-

-

0%

10,300

5,715

0%

Zesty

872

753

-14%

1,064

1,517

43%

Guidance

636

603

(5)%

700

642

-8%

Switch

5

5

0%

32

34

6%

IFRS 3 adjustment

-

243

N/A

-

4,209

N/A

Pro forma revenue

1,513

1,604

6%

12,096

12,117

0%

EBITDA

(6,895)

(5,393)

-3%

(4,228)

(5,732)

36%

Add back: share-based payments and one-off charges

2,282*

1,073

4,131*

1,548

Adjusted EBITDA

(4,613)

(4,320)

-9%

(97)

(4,212)

4,227%

IFRS 3 adjustment

0

243

0

4,209

Pro forma adjusted EBITDA

(4,613)

(4,077)

-13%

(97)

(4)

N/A

Net debt/(cash)

(2,471)

(2,472)

0%

(8,093)

(7,496)

-7%

Source: Induction Healthcare, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Included contract liability IFRS 3 fair value adjustments of £152k for FY21 and £1,742k for FY22e.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

Year end 31 March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

0

148

1,361

7,908

17,565

20,970

Cost of Sales

(66)

(73)

(636)

(2,920)

(3,513)

(4,194)

Gross Profit

(66)

75

725

4,988

14,052

16,776

EBITDA

 

 

(2,696)

(3,074)

(4,320)

(4,212)

1,553

2,425

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(2,707)

(3,480)

(6,951)

(7,997)

296

1,168

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

(1,900)

(1,800)

Exceptionals

0

0

(375)

(935)

0

0

Share-based payments

0

(94)

(698)

(613)

(792)

(808)

Reported operating profit

(2,707)

(3,574)

(8,024)

(9,545)

(2,396)

(1,440)

Net Interest

0

47

(2)

(29)

(10)

(6)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

(91)

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(2,707)

(3,433)

(6,953)

(8,026)

286

1,162

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(2,707)

(3,527)

(8,117)

(9,574)

(2,406)

(1,446)

Reported tax

0

0

503

1,140

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(2,707)

(3,433)

(6,953)

(8,026)

232

941

Profit After Tax (reported)

(2,707)

(3,527)

(7,614)

(8,434)

(2,406)

(1,446)

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(2,707)

(3,433)

(6,953)

(8,026)

232

941

Net income (reported)

(2,707)

(3,527)

(7,614)

(8,434)

(2,406)

(1,446)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

13.2

26.2

39.7

82.5

92.1

92.1

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

(20.6)

(13.1)

(17.5)

(9.7)

0.3

1.0

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

(20.6)

(13.1)

(17.5)

(9.7)

0.3

1.0

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

(20.6)

(13.5)

(19.2)

(10.2)

(2.6)

(1.6)

Dividend (p)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

N/A

820

481

122

19

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

51

53

63

80

80

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

(2077)

(317)

(53)

9

12

Normalised Operating Margin

N/A

(2351)

(511)

(101)

2

6

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

222

3,999

16,153

42,504

43,839

45,693

Intangible Assets

222

3,902

15,258

40,720

41,798

43,395

Tangible Assets

0

0

15

244

501

758

Investments & other

0

97

880

1,540

1,540

1,540

Current Assets

 

 

397

10,881

3,970

12,872

14,690

14,086

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors & contract assets

128

163

1,051

4,136

8,608

10,568

Cash & cash equivalents

169

10,718

2,472

7,496

4,842

2,278

Other

100

0

447

1,240

1,240

1,240

Current Liabilities

 

 

(3,261)

(2,074)

(2,421)

(6,806)

(11,616)

(13,504)

Creditors & contract liabilities

(761)

(665)

(2,423)

(5,945)

(11,544)

(13,432)

Other financial liabilities

0

(1,409)

0

(72)

(72)

(72)

Short term borrowings

(2,500)

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

2

(789)

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

0

(359)

(1,235)

(6,305)

(6,262)

(6,262)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

0

(359)

(1,235)

(6,305)

(6,262)

(6,262)

Net Assets

 

 

(2,642)

12,447

16,467

42,265

40,651

40,013

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

(2,642)

12,447

16,467

42,265

40,651

40,013

CASH FLOW

Net income

(2,707)

(3,527)

(7,614)

(8,434)

(2,406)

(1,446)

Depreciation & amortisation

0

323

1,347

3,813

3,157

3,057

Working capital

533

(313)

600

2,776

1,127

(72)

Net interest

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptional & other

11

170

2,158

613

(50)

801

Tax

0

0

(503)

(829)

0

0

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(2,163)

(3,347)

(4,012)

(2,061)

1,828

2,340

Capex

(454)

(761)

(1,666)

(3,347)

(4,482)

(4,904)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(976)

(1,987)

(13,486)

0

0

Change in borrowing

2,500

0

(501)

0

0

0

Equity financing

30

16,115

(64)

23,810

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

(490)

1

199

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(87)

10,541

(8,229)

5,115

(2,654)

(2,564)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

0

(2,669)

(10,718)

(2,472)

(7,496)

(4,842)

FX

(1)

8

(17)

(91)

0

0

Other non-cash movements

2,757

(2,500)

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2,669)

(10,718)

(2,472)

(7,496)

(4,842)

(2,278)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Induction Healthcare Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Induction Healthcare Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Induction Healthcare Group and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Induction Healthcare Group. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Murray Income Trust — Attractive income at a discount

Murray Income Trust (MUT) invests mainly in UK equities and aims to provide a high and growing income, combined with capital growth. The trust is meeting these three objectives. The FY23 dividend is expected to be at least 36.5p, putting it on track to deliver its 50th consecutive year of dividend growth. This represents a prospective yield of 4.4%. MUT has underperformed during this year’s market rotation away from the quality companies favoured by manager Charles Luke. However, the trust has slightly outpaced the market over the long term on an NAV basis; in the 10 years ended October 2022, MUT’s average annualised NAV return was 6.7%, compared to an average market return of 6.3%.

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