Solutions 30 — Servicing Europe’s digital goods

Solutions 30 — Servicing Europe’s digital goods

Solutions 30 has delivered impressive growth over the past decade, driven by supportive industry dynamics and replicating its business model across new applications and geographies. We believe that growth dynamics continue to look favourable, and while the shares now price in strong ongoing performance, if execution remains strong we see good scope for upside over the longer term.

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Solutions 30

Servicing Europe’s digital goods

IT services

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21 November 2017

Price

€26.67

Market cap

€635m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

ALS30

Shares in issue

23.8m

Net debt (€) as at June 2017

28.1m

Business description

Solutions 30 SE provides installation, troubleshooting, training and consultancy services for digital equipment, and operates in five areas: energy, IT/telecom, multimedia, POS terminals and security.

Bull

Largest player in a fragmented market.

Growing fast outside of core French market.

Now at sufficient scale to win large contracts.

Bear

High near-term rating.

Low margins.

Cash-consumptive during this rapid growth phase.

Analysts

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

Alasdair Young

+44 (0)20 3077 5758

Solutions 30 has delivered impressive growth over the past decade, driven by supportive industry dynamics and replicating its business model across new applications and geographies. We believe that growth dynamics continue to look favourable, and while the shares now price in strong ongoing performance, if execution remains strong we see good scope for upside over the longer term.

Expanding

Solutions 30 SE provides installation, troubleshooting, training and consultancy services for digital equipment across five areas: information technology, telecommunications, energy, digital and security. These services are delivered by over 2,000 service engineers, of which c 1,000 are freelance. The company originated in France, which accounted for 64% of H117 revenues (up 22% y-o-y driven by the continued roll-out of fibre optic and the Linky smart meter installation business). The company is expanding across Europe, replicating the model it has implemented so successfully in France using acquisitions to establish and strengthen its position in these markets. Boosted by the integration of the 2016 acquisitions of ABM, Janssens and Autronic, international revenues increased by 69% to €42.6m in H117, with organic growth also robust at 17%.

Strong growth track record and prospects

Revenues have grown at a CAGR of over 20% since 2007. Organic growth is supported by the proliferation of electronics devices and their renewal cycles. Solutions 30 has capitalised on this through progressively applying its replicable business model to new applications and geographic markets. Strong performance continued in H117, with revenues, adjusted EBITDA and net income rising 36%, 38% and 39% y-o-y. Q3 revenues saw this trend continue, as demonstrated by 48% y-o-y growth. Organic revenue growth (over H1) was 21%. As the company operates in a fragmented market and the internationalisation strategy is now gaining critical mass, we believe that growth dynamics continue to look favourable. Management has confirmed FY17 guidance of profitable double-digit growth rates, with continuing focus on costs.

Valuation: Growth priced in, but catalyst for upside

The shares have appreciated c100% over the last year and now trade at a premium consensus FY17e P/E of 41x. However, due to the strength of mid-term growth forecasts, this falls to a more moderate 29x in 2019e. Key catalysts include further evidence of successful integration of the 2016 acquisitions, improving profitability, additional large contract wins and potentially earnings-enhancing M&A.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

PBT
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

125.3

6.0

0.40

0.0

66.7

N/A

12/16

191.8

9.7

0.80

0.0

33.3

N/A

12/17e

259.2

13.8

0.65

0.0

41.0

N/A

12/18e

344.2

24.0

0.91

0.0

29.3

N/A

Source: Bloomberg

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Disclaimer

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison's solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are "wholesale clients" for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document.
A marketing communication under FCA rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a "personalised service" and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a "class service" provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ("FTSE") (c) FTSE [2014]. "FTSE(r)" is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Trifast — Strong progress as investment continues

A strong set of interim results has led us to upgrade our EPS forecasts for FY18 by 5.0% and FY19 by 2.5%. Other than a weather-related hiccup in the smaller US activity, there was good like-for-like progress in Europe, Asia and the UK. Input cost pressures at the gross profit level were mitigated by strong overhead control. Investment for growth continues across all regions and the strong balance sheet should facilitate M&A as appropriate opportunities arise with management taking a more proactive approach in target identification. Trifast’s shares have been very strong in the run-up to the results and are rated more appropriately, in our view, with the P/E discount to peers substantially diminished.

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