Lookers — Signs of progress despite challenges

Lookers (LN: LOOK)

Last close As at 22/11/2024

74.70

−7.80 (−9.87%)

Market capitalisation

GBP279m

More on this equity

Research: Industrials

Lookers — Signs of progress despite challenges

With the new car market still challenging, the appointment of a new CEO does not automatically solve Lookers’ problems but does provide some encouragement. Mark Raban has credentials in the automotive retail sector and already appears to have been setting about resolving issues on the financial front. The better-than-expected year-end net debt position provides a reference. In 2020 we expect more efforts to improve the portfolio as he seeks to reset the strategy, optimise performance and driver Lookers forward.

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Written by

Industrials

Lookers

Signs of progress despite challenges

New CEO and Q419
trading update

Automotive retail

6 February 2020

Price

56.5p

Market cap

£220m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2019

73.9

Shares in issue

389.3m

Free float

83.4%

Code

LOOK

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

1.3

20.6

(47.5)

Rel (local)

3.1

17.9

(50.4)

52-week high/low

107.4p

41.6p

Business description

Lookers is vying to be the largest UK motor vehicle retailer, with its new car operations supported by the strength of used and aftersales activities. It now operates 155 franchises, representing 32 marques from 100 sites around the UK, with strong regional presences in Northern Ireland, Scotland, the South East and across northern England.

Next events

FY19 results

11 March 2020

Analyst

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Lookers is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

With the new car market still challenging, the appointment of a new CEO does not automatically solve Lookers’ problems but does provide some encouragement. Mark Raban has credentials in the automotive retail sector and already appears to have been setting about resolving issues on the financial front. The better-than-expected year-end net debt position provides a reference. In 2020 we expect more efforts to improve the portfolio as he seeks to reset the strategy, optimise performance and driver Lookers forward.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

4,696.3

62.1

12.61

3.89

4.5

6.9

12/18**

4,879.5

50.0

9.95

4.08

5.7

7.2

12/19e

4,890.8

15.7

3.08

4.08

18.3

7.2

12/20e

5,006.7

16.4

3.22

4.08

17.6

7.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Restated for IFRS 16.

New CEO appointment

We believe the elevation of Mark Raban to CEO of Lookers from his current CFO position should be seen as positive by investors. Mark has enjoyed a career spanning more than 30 years in retail and much of that in recent years has been in the motor trade with Inchcape and more recently Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH). As CFO he helped to steer MMH through its IPO and the transformational takeover of Ridgway. He starts his new role at Lookers having already had a chance to look under the bonnet of the second-largest UK automotive retail group after joining as CFO last May. Actions and controls implemented since his arrival appear to be having a positive impact on debt.

Earnings as expected, improved debt level

The company announced a trading update saying that despite a challenging Q419, especially in new car markets, forecast PBT was in line with the board’s expectations. New car sales fell 6.6%, below the UK market (Q419 -1.6%). More positively, used car sales rose 3.8% in Q419 outperforming a flat market as inventory levels were reduced, with more stable margins. Aftersales remained robust with sales broadly flat. The portfolio optimisation continued generating £8.3m of property sales proceeds, which combined with increased discipline on capex, working capital and cost controls left year-end net debt substantially better than expected at just £62.0m. The challenging retail environment persists with January UK new car registrations falling 7.3%, due to weak private buyer sales (down 13.9%), but management appears to be proactively addressing the issues.

Valuation: Multiple expansion requires recovery

In valuation terms the net debt improvement is worth about 10p per share, which is close to the share price recovery from November’s low. The multiple expansion since that low suggests investors expect a recovery in FY21 and if management confidence is increased by the FY19 debt level, dividend yield could be a support.

Trading update

Management has indicated the forecast FY19 PBT is in line with board expectations so we are leaving our estimates largely unchanged. However, the cash performance has been a positive stand out as working capital management, a stricter investment regime and property disposals improved debt levels and we have adjusted our estimates to reflect that.

New car market remains challenging

New car sales were 6.6% lower in Q419, a bigger fall than seen in Q319 (-3.2%), despite only modest declines in the overall market (Q419 -1.6%; Q319 -0.6%). More positively, used car sales rose 3.8% in Q419 outperforming a stable market, although in part the performance appears to be due to inventory level management. Nevertheless the margin stabilisation seen in Q319 continued. The high-margin aftersales business remained robust with sales broadly flat, although the absence of prior year parts volume bonuses may adversely influence the Q419 margin year on year.

In addition, the portfolio consolidation that identified 15 sites for closure is largely complete and has generated £8.3m of sales proceeds from four of the nine freehold sites that have been closed. The remaining five should be sold in the current year. Together with increased discipline on capex, working capital and cost controls, year-end net debt was substantially better than expected at just £62.0m compared to our previous estimate of £104.8m.

Our revised estimates are shown below.

Exhibit 1: Lookers earnings estimates revisions

Year to December (£m)

2019e

2019e

 

2020e

2020e

 

Prior

New

Change

Prior

New

Change

New

2,318.6

2,318.6

0.0%

2,323.6

2,323.6

0.0%

Used

1,997.6

1,997.6

0.0%

2,077.5

2,077.5

0.0%

Aftersales

458.7

458.7

0.0%

486.2

486.2

0.0%

Leasing

116.0

116.0

0.0%

119.5

119.5

0.0%

Sales

4,890.8

4,890.8

0.0%

5,006.7

5,006.7

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

81.7

81.7

0.0%

84.0

84.0

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Underlying EBITA

44.4

44.4

0.0%

45.7

45.7

0.0%

Underlying operating profit

42.6

42.6

0.0%

43.9

43.9

0.0%

Underlying PTP

15.7

15.7

0.0%

16.4

16.4

0.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS - underlying continuing (p)

3.08

3.08

0.0%

3.22

3.22

0.0%

DPS (p)

4.08

4.08

0.0%

4.08

4.08

0.0%

Net debt / (cash)

104.8

61.9

-41.0%

86.9

43.5

-49.9%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£m

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

4,696.3

4,879.5

4,890.8

5,006.7

Cost of Sales

(4,192.2)

(4,364.0)

(4,382.1)

(4,486.0)

Gross Profit

504.1

515.5

508.6

520.7

EBITDA

 

 

105.4

114.8

81.7

84.0

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

83.0

82.2

48.3

49.3

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

(5.6)

(5.7)

(5.4)

Exceptionals

(3.7)

(1.4)

(15.0)

(3.0)

Other

(4.6)

(2.2)

(2.2)

(2.2)

Operating Profit

74.7

73.0

25.3

38.6

Net Interest

(16.3)

(18.3)

(18.6)

(19.2)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

62.1

50.0

15.7

16.4

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

58.4

48.6

0.7

13.4

Tax

(10.5)

(8.8)

(0.4)

(2.7)

Profit After Tax (norm)

51.6

41.0

12.5

13.1

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

47.9

39.8

0.2

10.6

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

397.3

393.4

389.2

389.2

EPS

 

 

12.99

10.41

3.22

3.37

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

12.61

9.95

3.08

3.22

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

12.06

10.12

0.06

2.73

Dividend per share (p)

3.89

4.08

4.08

4.08

Gross Margin (%)

10.7

10.6

10.4

10.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

2.2

2.3

1.6

1.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

1.8

1.7

1.0

1.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

563.2

668.6

662.9

649.6

Intangible Assets

221.2

230.8

221.8

221.4

Tangible Assets

342.0

350.9

363.5

358.8

Right of use asset

0.0

86.9

77.7

69.5

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

1,332.4

1,313.8

1,294.0

1,320.1

Stocks

984.1

1,027.7

997.7

1,000.9

Debtors

303.0

233.7

226.9

229.7

Cash

45.3

44.4

69.4

89.4

Other

0.0

8.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,247.7)

(1,238.4)

(1,226.3)

(1,242.8)

Creditors

(1,228.1)

(1,235.8)

(1,226.3)

(1,242.8)

Short term borrowings

(19.6)

(2.6)

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(262.9)

(367.2)

(369.5)

(370.9)

Long term borrowings

(123.5)

(128.7)

(131.3)

(133.0)

Lease liabilities

(110.2)

(110.2)

(110.2)

Other long term liabilities

(139.4)

(128.3)

(128.0)

(127.7)

Net Assets

 

 

385.0

376.8

361.2

356.0

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

65.9

90.2

85.7

75.5

Net Interest

(17.6)

(16.3)

(18.3)

(18.6)

Tax

(10.5)

(8.8)

(0.4)

(2.7)

Capex

(54.2)

(33.6)

(34.3)

(20.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1.3)

(13.7)

8.3

0.0

Financing

0.0

(9.3)

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(15.0)

(15.6)

(16.0)

(15.9)

Other

9.0

18.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(23.7)

10.9

25.0

18.3

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

74.1

97.8

86.9

61.9

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

97.8

86.9

61.9

43.6

Net financial Liabilities

197.1

172.1

153.8

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Lookers and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Lookers. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Lookers and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Lookers. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2020. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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